Wake up Call for Democrats... Nate Silver: Trump would likely win if vote held today

[blankslate]

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7

If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.

That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.

Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.

It's the first time in Silver's "Now-cast" forecast that Trump has been projected to win.

However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%.

Silver raised eyebrows Friday on Twitter when he pointed out "how plausible it is that Trump could become president."

Remember Nate Silver once said Trump wouldn't become the nominee and that Clinton had around a 79% chance of winning not too long ago.

She needs to make bold moves to shore up the democratic base and appeal to undecided voters.

In light of the above

Selecting Tim Kaine for VP was a stupid move.

Not distancing herself from DWS is a stupid move.

Kowtowing to monied interests is a stupid move.

We still have time for to hope that Trump implodes, but the fact is Trump won't win so much as Senator Clinton could lose... it's not '92 it's 2016 time to start campaigning like it's 2016 instead of triangulating.


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[MomentsofSanity]

He bases those on polling averages. Trump is on a predictable convention bounce. This is not surprising.

Also, Trump is already down to 54.5% chance since this morning.

 

[FerrelGeek]

'If the election were held today' polls are meaningless. There's still plenty of time for either candidate to implode.

 

[senseamp]

I am bought some Nov S&P puts as insurance, just in case. Trump would be an economic disaster. Who is going to invest serious money in a country ran by an autocratic buffoon?

 

[realibrad]

'If the election were held today' polls are meaningless. There's still plenty of time for either candidate to implode.

Scary way of thinking considering that this has been the argument against Trump this whole time.

"Trump cant get past the primary, he is an idiot that will implode".

At some point, people better get serious about Trump. When he starts going way left on issues, and he will, then what will happen?

 

[fskimospy]

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7




Remember Nate Silver once said Trump wouldn't become the nominee and that Clinton had around a 79% chance of winning not too long ago.

She needs to make bold moves to shore up the democratic base and appeal to undecided voters.

In light of the above

Selecting Tim Kaine for VP was a stupid move.

Not distancing herself from DWS is a stupid move.

Kowtowing to monied interests is a stupid move.

We still have time for to hope that Trump implodes, but the fact is Trump won't win so much as Senator Clinton could lose... it's not '92 it's 2016 time to start campaigning like it's 2016 instead of triangulating.


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Using the same timing and logic John McCain and Mitt Romney would have also won the presidency if you calculated it on the first polls after their conventions. How did that turn out?

 

[Spungo]

Who is going to invest serious money in a country ran by an autocratic buffoon?

Wut? You really need to read up on the history of the US. Propping up dictators for business interests is what we do 24/7. The worst thing that can happen to business is democracy. All these anti child slavery laws cut into the bottom line.

 

[Atreus21]

Nate Silver is so...what year was he in vogue? 2012?

 

[Subyman]

Oh, so if we held the election right after the GOP convention and before the Dem convention the republican would win? You don't say?

 

[Jaskalas]

1: Dem Convention "bump"
2: Debates
3: Media has 3 months to sponsor Hillary.

We're in for a crazy season.

 

[Bart*Simpson]

1: Dem Convention "bump"
2: Debates
3: Media has 3 months to sponsor Hillary.

We're in for a crazy season.

1. The convention bump is not a given. There hasn't been a noticeable bump in any convention since the 2000 election season and now Trump got a bump. It's not guaranteed for Hillary.

2. The debates are going to be a sticky topic especially now that we all know that a number of media outlets are in the bag for Hillary. Unless NPR is going to moderate all of the debates I don't see why Trump should bother with them because at this point he doesn't need them to win. That can change, of course.

3. The media could also have three months to savage Hillary over the current Wikileaks and any subsequent Wikileaks to come...which I expect. Several media outlets are also poised to go negative on Hillary just to recover their credibility with the viewers (left and right) who know they've been in the bag for Hillary.

But, yeah, an exciting election season is ahead!

Also...the rumor mill has it that Bernie's name is still up for nomination.

 

[blankslate]

Using the same timing and logic John McCain and Mitt Romney would have also won the presidency if you calculated it on the first polls after their conventions. How did that turn out?

Oh, so if we held the election right after the GOP convention and before the Dem convention the republican would win? You don't say?

The point is Trump is such an obvious liar to most sane people that it should never have gotten to this point. If the country was rational Trump wouldn't even have gotten the nomination.

Don't get fucking complacent. In 80 the democratic voters where happy that Ronnie Ray-Gun was the nominee because he was an obviously easily defeatable opponent... oh wait. Seriously talk to anyone who was old enough to vote and involved in politics at the time. The 80 election didn't turn out the way people thought it would when President Reagan first secured the nomination.

Trump is so far out in looney land that it should disturb anyone that he comes out on top at any one point in time.
That wouldn't have happened in any other normal year. This isn't a normal year... so I repeat don't get fucking complacent.

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[bshole]

I am bought some Nov S&P puts as insurance, just in case. Trump would be an economic disaster. Who is going to invest serious money in a country ran by an autocratic buffoon?

I pulled my current 401K out of the market about a month ago. That represents about half of my retirement savings so I am betting huge that the market is gonna collapse. Biggest gamble of my life.

 

[JSt0rm]

hail satan

 

[MomentsofSanity]

One week later and the same Now Cast shows Clinton at an 82.2% chance of winning. Don't put too much faith in a snippet in time 3 months out from the election.