Originally posted by: videopho
My prediction Blue Ray will eventually die off just like its short-lived sibling SACD.
Granted that average Jack/Joe would never buy this type of BR or HD-DVD machine and willing to shell out $20 per movie.
Neither machines would never hit main stream, anyway.
Video-On-Demand would have killed either format sooner or later.
SACD was doomed from the beginning. The average joe wouldn't ever know the difference listening to an SACD in comparison to a standard CD. Unless high-end components are at play, they sound identical. It's like listening to a 320kb/s MP3 on $9 wal-mart special headphones.
However, the average joe can tell a huge difference between the picture of a Bluray disc and a DVD. Also, new DVD releases are $20 at most stores. I've seen BR discs as low as $10. Bluray is also a very appealing name and it has a nice looking logo.
Thousands of people are upgrading to HD televisions daily. When bluray players get down below $150, sales will take off and eventually begin to phase out DVDs, as DVDs did to VHS in the late 1990s.
I think video on demand will have its place, but it won't take over the industry. People love showing off their dvd collection, and I'm one of them. Having digital copies of everything isn't always appealing.
Also, this is all without mentioning Home Theatre PC's. These are becoming practically commonplace with the release of windows media center and absurdly cheap component prices. A bluray drive for an HTPC would cost you ~$180 today. By summer it'll be down to $125, guaranteed.