Victor Martinez to the Detroit Tigers

[acheron]

4 years/$50 million.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/tigers-reach-agreement-with-victor-martinez.html

Don't know what the Red Sox are going to do now. Varitek/Saltalamacchia I guess?

 

[mcvickj]

I guess this news coincides with the Tigers not offering arbitration to Laird. However I am still surprised they were looking for another catcher. I thought Avilia did a good job behind the plate.

 

[Perknose]

I wouldn't have payed that much for V-Mart, but then I don't have a major league baseball team for him to play on anyway.

 

[Perknose]

I guess this news coincides with the Tigers not offering arbitration to Laird. However I am still surprised they were looking for another catcher. I thought Avilia did a good job behind the plate.

Martinez is not that good defensively. I think they want him more for his bat and will DH him far more often than they will have him don the tools of ignorance and squat.

 

[crownjules]

The Red Sox really need to sign both Werth and Crawford now. They're down to Ortiz, who's completely ineffective now vs. lefties and who knows how good he'll even be next year, and Youklis to generate their power.

edit: Adrian Beltre would also be good, but it's really looking unlikely he signs back on with them.

 

[rcpratt]

Not sure how I feel about this. I doubt VMart will be catching more than half the games at the very most. I have visions of Span stealing fourteen bases in a game next spring.

Way too much money, but that's how it goes I guess. Tigers still HAVE to get either Maggs or Werth...Maggs looks more likely, especially with yet another Venezuelan.

 

[Squisher]

If they could only sew Avila's or Laird's arm on to Martinez's shoulder.

Overpaying for Joaquin Benoit and now Martinez, I could hug you Mr. Ilitch but I'd whisper in your ear that your GM hasn't got it quite right. You need more speed on the base paths and a lead off hitter that doesn't strike out 200 times a year. You don't give the most lucrative 3 year contract to a non-closer to someone who had one career year. Oh, and by the way, I don't care if he has great range and is the poster child of the organization, you can't have a third baseman that hits .220

 

[acheron]

Supposedly Red Sox offered 3/36 or 4/42. Orioles offered 4/48 and White Sox offered 3/48 (which seems like an odd offer compared to the others).

Interesting that the Orioles were pushing for him, and got pretty close I guess. Wonder what they will do now instead.

 

[rcpratt]

Pretty surprised the ChiSox couldn't pull him in for that. Venezuelan love, baby.

 

[techs]

It's a rebuilding year for the Sawx. I have no problem with them letting older guys go.

 

[IAteYourMother]

It's a rebuilding year for the Sawx. I have no problem with them letting older guys go.

Why in the world would it be a rebuilding year?

 

[techs]

Why in the world would it be a rebuilding year?

Paplebon is not the same pitcher. Beltre at third is a goner. Ortiz is pretty much over the hill. Wakefield will either retire, or retire from the rotation. Dice K is a free agent, iirc. If you look a the team, outside of Youkilis and Pedroia in the field you have no top notch players. You have Ellsbury and Drew who are just competent players. Beckett just hasn't been Beckett for a few years now. Bucholz and Lester and pray for rain?
Keeping older players is not in the Sawx interests. The Sawx won't spend huge bucks to try and patch all the holes this year, but look to rebuild with younger players.

 

[SP33Demon]

If they could only sew Avila's or Laird's arm on to Martinez's shoulder.

Overpaying for Joaquin Benoit and now Martinez, I could hug you Mr. Ilitch but I'd whisper in your ear that your GM hasn't got it quite right. You need more speed on the base paths and a lead off hitter that doesn't strike out 200 times a year. You don't give the most lucrative 3 year contract to a non-closer to someone who had one career year. Oh, and by the way, I don't care if he has great range and is the poster child of the organization, you can't have a third baseman that hits .220

I see no problem with VMart getting that much money... one career year? What are you talking about? The guy is a .300 batter and the best hitting catcher in MLB not named Mauer. The only guys within 20 points of his average are McCann, AJ, and possibly Posey (unproven). Only Posada and McCann posted better career OPS numbers so it's only fitting that VMart get Posada money.

Defensively, VMart isn't the best but certainly not the worst. He threw out 6% better than Posada this year (21 vs 15) and only 5 behind Mauer (26). Lifetime he's only 4% behind Posada (28 vs 24) and 1% off 25% which is the standard for good hitting catchers (e.g. AJ@25 over 12 years or Piazza@23 over 15 years). Overall he's slightly below average at throwing runners out but could alternate at DH with Miggy if one of them is hurt.

RE: Austin Jackson at leadoff, yes he struck out a lot (170 not 200 lol) but still batted .293 as a rookie and finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting. He finished top 5 for Range Factor for all AL Outfielders, whereas Granderson wasn't even in the top 10. Considering he's a huge upgrade over Granderson and making 400K a year, who the hell would complain about this guy?

Also, the Tigers made Brian Cashman of the Yanks look stupid by giving up AJax + Phil Coke + Ian Kennedy(to AZ) for Granderson and the Tigers also got Scherzer (8.5K/9 and a solid young starter) and Schlereth (effective bullpen guy vs lefties and righties) out of it. GM Dombrowski pulled off the best trade of the year in getting those guys for declining Granderson and erratic, overrated Edwin Jackson.

 

[Squisher]

I see no problem with VMart getting that much money... one career year?

I agree with everything you said, but I was speaking of the 3 years that Benoit got (the most ever for a non-closer).

 

[rcpratt]

Comparison to Pudge:

Victor Martinez, Tigers: 4 years, $50 million ($12.5 million AAV)
Signed as a free agent for ages 32-35 (2011-14)
Career stat line when signed: .300/.369/.469/.838, 131 HR, 638 RBI, 121 OPS+

Pudge Rodriguez, Tigers: 4 years, $40 million ($10 million AAV) plus club option
Signed as free agent for ages 32-35 (2004-07)
Career stat line when signed: .304/.344/.488/.832, 231 HR, 914 RBI, 113 OPS+

Pudge’s counting stats are larger since he was in MLB from an earlier age. Of course, VMart’s glove is not on the same level. Very similar after salary inflation.

Pudge put up about a .770 OPS for his 4.5 years in Detroit, for what it's worth.

 

[KMFJD]

now if they can only get rid of Inge...

 

[Rockinacoustic]

The Red Sox really need to sign both Werth and Crawford now. They're down to Ortiz, who's completely ineffective now vs. lefties and who knows how good he'll even be next year, and Youklis to generate their power.

edit: Adrian Beltre would also be good, but it's really looking unlikely he signs back on with them.

Just Ortiz? Youkilis and Pedroia are solid players too.

The Sox need Someone besides John Lester to give a crap about pitching, and their starters and back-ups to be healthy. I was amazed Francona didn't win Coach of the year considering how much he got out of so little a team last year. And that's coming from a Yankee fan...

 

[IAteYourMother]

Paplebon is not the same pitcher. Beltre at third is a goner. Ortiz is pretty much over the hill. Wakefield will either retire, or retire from the rotation. Dice K is a free agent, iirc. If you look a the team, outside of Youkilis and Pedroia in the field you have no top notch players. You have Ellsbury and Drew who are just competent players. Beckett just hasn't been Beckett for a few years now. Bucholz and Lester and pray for rain?
Keeping older players is not in the Sawx interests. The Sawx won't spend huge bucks to try and patch all the holes this year, but look to rebuild with younger players.

You have at least 4 blue chip players in Youk, Pedroia, Lester, and Buchholz. You got Bard in the bullpen in addition to Papelbon. A healthy Ellsbury can be a pretty good weapon, and Drew is still a sabermetric beast. Boston was in the playoff race until the very end, even with all their best players suffering random injuries. I think they've got a good chance next year.

 

[BeauJangles]

I see no problem with VMart getting that much money... one career year? What are you talking about? The guy is a .300 batter and the best hitting catcher in MLB not named Mauer. The only guys within 20 points of his average are McCann, AJ, and possibly Posey (unproven). Only Posada and McCann posted better career OPS numbers so it's only fitting that VMart get Posada money.

Defensively, VMart isn't the best but certainly not the worst. He threw out 6% better than Posada this year (21 vs 15) and only 5 behind Mauer (26). Lifetime he's only 4% behind Posada (28 vs 24) and 1% off 25% which is the standard for good hitting catchers (e.g. AJ@25 over 12 years or Piazza@23 over 15 years). Overall he's slightly below average at throwing runners out but could alternate at DH with Miggy if one of them is hurt.

RE: Austin Jackson at leadoff, yes he struck out a lot (170 not 200 lol) but still batted .293 as a rookie and finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting. He finished top 5 for Range Factor for all AL Outfielders, whereas Granderson wasn't even in the top 10. Considering he's a huge upgrade over Granderson and making 400K a year, who the hell would complain about this guy?

Also, the Tigers made Brian Cashman of the Yanks look stupid by giving up AJax + Phil Coke + Ian Kennedy(to AZ) for Granderson and the Tigers also got Scherzer (8.5K/9 and a solid young starter) and Schlereth (effective bullpen guy vs lefties and righties) out of it. GM Dombrowski pulled off the best trade of the year in getting those guys for declining Granderson and erratic, overrated Edwin Jackson.

The problem with paying him so much money is that he's 32. The deal will almost certainly be good for next season and there's a good shot that he'll have decent returns in 2012, too. The problem comes in those next years. Catchers drop off very, very fast and V-Mart is getting towards the decline phase of his career. If he has to switch to 1B/DH, his bat becomes decidedly average and certainly not worth $12 million.

 

[SP33Demon]

You have at least 4 blue chip players in Youk, Pedroia, Lester, and Buchholz. You got Bard in the bullpen in addition to Papelbon. A healthy Ellsbury can be a pretty good weapon, and Drew is still a sabermetric beast. Boston was in the playoff race until the very end, even with all their best players suffering random injuries. I think they've got a good chance next year.

This is true, although there was talk about letting Ellsbury go or ride the pine if they got Crawford... Also, it's very doubtful that Werth will go to Boston because of JD Drew unless he'd be willing to play Center or Left field.

Boston probably would have easily made the World Series last year if Youk and Pedo didn't go down. Talk about bad timing now that VMart and Beltre are gone.

 

[crownjules]

Boston probably would have easily made the World Series last year if Youk and Pedo didn't go down. Talk about bad timing now that VMart and Beltre are gone.

I don't think easily is the right descriptor. Having Youk and Pedroia would have increased their chances of making it to the playoffs for sure. But outside of their hot stretch during late May through the All-Star break, the Sox were not winning most games against playoff teams.

 

[jman19]

The Red Sox really need to sign both Werth and Crawford now. They're down to Ortiz, who's completely ineffective now vs. lefties and who knows how good he'll even be next year, and Youklis to generate their power.

edit: Adrian Beltre would also be good, but it's really looking unlikely he signs back on with them.

No way they will get both Werth and Crawford. Maybe Beltre + one of those. I can't see the Angels wiffing on both OFs.

Sox would probably be better off with Crawford and sending away Ellsbury to improve elsewhere.

 

[JS80]

Paplebon is not the same pitcher. Beltre at third is a goner. Ortiz is pretty much over the hill. Wakefield will either retire, or retire from the rotation. Dice K is a free agent, iirc. If you look a the team, outside of Youkilis and Pedroia in the field you have no top notch players. You have Ellsbury and Drew who are just competent players. Beckett just hasn't been Beckett for a few years now. Bucholz and Lester and pray for rain?
Keeping older players is not in the Sawx interests. The Sawx won't spend huge bucks to try and patch all the holes this year, but look to rebuild with younger players.

Healthy Ellsbury is one of the best fantasy baseball players in the league.

 

[Gibson486]

RSox owner no longer gives an F. He just wants to make money. Why keep Ortiz? Because he sells a lot of T-shirts and keeps the pink hats in the seat. The sox organization is no longer built on winning, they just want to "be in the race" and that is it. They did their WS stint and they made their money. Even though ratings fell last year, they are still one of the more profitable organizations out there.

In the short term, this new ownership was great, but in the long term, there is gonna be a lot of lost fans. Personally, I stopped caring for the Sox and I have since 08. New England will soon be a Patriots area.

 

[SP33Demon]

The problem with paying him so much money is that he's 32. The deal will almost certainly be good for next season and there's a good shot that he'll have decent returns in 2012, too. The problem comes in those next years. Catchers drop off very, very fast and V-Mart is getting towards the decline phase of his career. If he has to switch to 1B/DH, his bat becomes decidedly average and certainly not worth $12 million.

Ok, let's just say VMart's catching ability drops off very fast which may or may not be true. Just off his bat alone, VMart is probably making too much at 12mil/yr so definitely agree. Although I wouldn't say his bat is "average" though.

I ran a quick search in Baseball-ref for: last 3 years, OPS>.800, Batting average > .295, and 1000 plate attempts. VMart ranks 25th in OPS and 24th in BA.

The guys with the most similar performances are:

1) Markakis (11mil/yr-age26 when signed in 2009/ slightly better numbers than VMart's/ .306BA/ .897OPS) last 3 years
2) Vlad's 2009 signing for 5.5 (age34) with Texas coming off a .295 BA/ .794OPS year.
3) Magglio Ordonez's last 3 years (15~mil/yr in 2004 money@age 30/ but came off down year .292BA/ .836OPS so speculation he was declining even though he had monster numbers 2000-2003).

Since there aren't many players who are similar to VMart's offense, that is all we have to go off for contracts for similar batters.

Basically we can say that VMart's bat alone is worth between Vlad's 5.5mil and Markakis's 11mil. Both were in 2009 so not much inflation. However, Vlad was 2 years older and Markakis 6 years younger. So we can definitely knock 2-3~ mil/yr off the top of Markakis's 11 mil for age alone but add at least 1-2~ mil/yr over Vlad's. This would put VMart's batting value max range window at around 6.5mil to 9mil range. Factor in the fact that Detroit overpays + he's a catcher and the 12 mil number seems like it should be close to where it should be.

So should Detroit lose him at catcher and have to use him as a DH, they would be overpaying him by 3 to 5.5mil a year. Not a huge number but still significant - you could purchase at least 2 decent bullpen guys for that money. Hopefully VMart will stay healthy and Detroit gets max value.