[Verge] Intel revenues down 5%

[happysmiles]

Well Intel is slightly down, AMD is considerably down, I wonder where this will leave Nvidia. Will be interesting to see if Nvidia's GPU business suffered and/or mobile sales can make up for it.

Nvidia clearly saw this coming, that's why they're up to their third Tegra already. regardless what happens to their desktop/laptop GPU division, the Tegra line will become it's main source of income as more OEM's pick it to run their Tablets and Phones.

if Nvidia released the first Tegra this year it would be a different story.

 

[ShintaiDK]

What manufacturing advantage? The one they enjoy over AMD? The same company that's on the brink of death? Because in the ARM space they're currently behind, not ahead.

In order for Intel to keep their fabs to themselves and enjoy that same advantage they have in the desktop/server over ARM, they're going to need to increase their revenue and profit margins, not have 3 consecutive quarters of disappointing sales and a 7-8% margin dip.

You can't funnel billions into fabs unless you're raking in billions of profit. Samsung is doing that and TSMC looks to have gained the Apple WSA, yet Intel is claiming it's an economic downturn that's affecting their figures? Samsung, in that same troubling economic climate, has doubled their profits from last year at this time, raking in over 7bn.
http://thelinkpaper.ca/?p=23261

That big fish that is Intel now has to contend with fish just as big as they are.

You might want to look closer at this for TSMC:
http://www.tsmc.com/english/investorRelations/quarterly_results.htm

And the this for Samsung Electronics:
http://www.samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/ir/newsMain.do

Then lastly this for Intel:
http://www.intc.com/results.cfm

And then you should see the flaws in your post.

 

[Ajay]

Intel has fabs down for upgrading to 14nm production. I see nothing in this that will affect their manufacturing advantage.

Interesting move. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo, Intel's CFO mentioned that Intel will take a charge for these upgrades (over the next two quarters, IIRC) because they are at excess capacity on older nodes. But that means they will have a enormous capacity at 14nm. What are they going to do with all the 14nm capacity that they will have, especially given the slowdown in PC sales?

 

[Nemesis 1]

This shows that AMD's falloff isn't necessarily the result of its' Product lines.

This isn't an AMD thread or I would ask what makes you believe that. AMD talked about 10% so expect more. Intel was 5% . So AMD with its cheaper products didn't do so well and it would seem lost even more market share , I was expecting worse results for intel myself

 

[exar333]

Intel did beat estimates with their results. The market is tough right now. AMD is hurting even more...

 

[Nemesis 1]

6 months? Pretty rough, man. Hope you have a good Christmas.

6 months in your dreams . Thats for desktop and mobile . Were suppose to see the 10watt version early. Thats what I am hoping for a tablet

 

[fluffmonster]

Intel's response to the ARM threat and tablets has been Ultrabooks. They've missed their target for sales by a considerable margin and year-to-year sales and profit margins are expected to decrease. Although Haswell looks great, it doesn't look to tackle the biggest issue: price. In fact, if rumors are true, it's going to make them even more expensive.

This. Intel is pricing themselves out of the segment they need to build to keep PC volume up. The concern I would have about Intel is not that they had a poor quarter; it would be that they seem to be unable to admit or recognize that this has anything to do with their own behavior and instead blame the economy or MS or something else, and denial tends to be a long-term problem.

 

[Phynaz]

What manufacturing advantage? The one they enjoy over AMD? The same company that's on the brink of death? Because in the ARM space they're currently behind, not ahead.

Really? What other chip manufacturer has been producing at 22nm? Who has Finfet in shipping products? Who is installing 14nm equipment as I write this? Who has a lower production cost? Who has a shorter cycle time?

I think you are confused about what people are talking about when they say manufacturing.

Samsung, in that same troubling economic climate, has doubled their profits from last year at this time, raking in over 7bn.

What is Samsung's revenue and and profit from their semiconductor operations, not the entire company? What is their semiconductor R&D?

Edit:
Somebody already answered the revenue and income numbers, and I'll tell you the R&D number - it's 1/4 of Intel's.

So how does Intel not have have a manufacturing advantage again?

 

[Idontcare]

Interesting move. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo, Intel's CFO mentioned that Intel will take a charge for these upgrades (over the next two quarters, IIRC) because they are at excess capacity on older nodes. But that means they will have a enormous capacity at 14nm. What are they going to do with all the 14nm capacity that they will have, especially given the slowdown in PC sales?

Well they are planning to push the 14nm Atom timeline quite aggressively. And if they do gain marketshare in the handset market then they will need lots and lots of wafer starts per month.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

This. Intel is pricing themselves out of the segment they need to build to keep PC volume up. The concern I would have about Intel is not that they had a poor quarter; it would be that they seem to be unable to admit or recognize that this has anything to do with their own behavior and instead blame the economy or MS or something else, and denial tends to be a long-term problem.

its not just price. they basically havent improved performance much in the last several cycles. even if i wanted to upgrade, what they have to offer isnt much better

 

[AtenRa]

Really? What other chip manufacturer has been producing at 22nm? Who has Finfet in shipping products? Who is installing 14nm equipment as I write this? Who has a lower production cost? Who has a shorter cycle time?

I think you are confused about what people are talking about when they say manufacturing.




So how does Intel not have have a manufacturing advantage again?

He was referring to the current 32nm ATOM for SmartPhones.

 

[Phynaz]

He was referring to the current 32nm ATOM for SmartPhones.

No, he was talking about Intel's financials and their ability to manufacture products.

 

[pelov]

So how does Intel not have have a manufacturing advantage again?

I was referring to current and future timelines. Both GloFo and TSMC have slated a 2014 release for 20nm, with ARM SoCs having already been taped out late 2011. Intel's 22nm Medfield successor isn't going to hit the market until late 2013 with products entering the market in 2014, so it's likely that we'll be seeing a 22nm Intel atom against an A15 at 20nm.

Where Intel has a massive fab advantage in x86, it all but disappears in the low end.

As for Samsung, a good chunk of their profits came from mobile. They also have the luxury of funneling as much money as they see fit into their fabs and SoC designs.

 

[Olikan]

I was referring to current and future timelines. Both GloFo and TSMC have slated a 2014 release for 20nm, with ARM SoCs having already been taped out late 2011. Intel's 22nm Medfield successor isn't going to hit the market until late 2013 with products entering the market in 2014, so it's likely that we'll be seeing a 22nm Intel atom against an A15 at 20nm.

GloFo is going for 14nm-XM in 2014

 

[pelov]

GloFo is going for 14nm-XM in 2014

Looks like they've accelerated their road map then.

http://techreport.com/news/23603/glofo-preps-14-nm-finfet-process-for-2013

 

[Phynaz]

Looks like they've accelerated their road map then.

http://techreport.com/news/23603/glofo-preps-14-nm-finfet-process-for-2013

"Expects customer tape outs in 2013"...So that's how we measure now?

Ok, Intel is installing 14nm today. You don't think they have already taped out?

 

[pelov]

"Expects customer tape outs in 2013"...So that's how we measure now?

Ok, Intel is installing 14nm today. You don't think they have already taped out?

Considering Intel's atom SoC line is lagging behind their laptop/server line... no. What I'm pointing at is exactly what you keep refuting by not refuting it at all:

Intel's Atom SoCs meant for mobile are on a cadence a year or two after their laptop lines. This means whenever Intel brings in 14nm, their Atom SoCs will follow by a year or two.

While GloFo/TSMC have been a year behind Intel in laptop/server (or more), they're also roughly on par with them in mobile. (both TSMC and GloFo had ARM customer's SoC tape outs late last year on the 20nm node).

That tells me Intel is ahead in the x86/desktop/server space but only on par in the mobile space.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Oh I love those roadmaps. Using those TSMC shipped 28nm in the middle of 2010.

Just a shame we had to wait to 2012 to see 28nm in GPUs and smartphones.

And rememeber 28nm is still so constrained that Qualcomm have to sell customers 45/40nm CPUs instead of 28nm. iPhone 5 is 32nm for the same reason.

Thats one of those problems Intel rarely faces due to control of the entire line.

 

[pelov]

Thats one of those problems Intel rarely faces due to control of the entire line.

You have a very selective memory.

We'd heard rumors earlier this month that Intel would be pushing back the release of its new Ivy Bridge processors, and now the company's executive vice-president has confirmed the delay. Speaking to the Financial Times, Intel's Sean Maloney stated that the new processors — whose mobile versions were expected to ship as early as April — were being pushed back, and that when it came to new release dates, "I think maybe it's June now." While earlier suggestions had been that the company was making the delay merely to clear out existing stock of the current-generation Sandy Bridge line, Maloney indicated that the shift was actually due to the manufacturing process used (Ivy Bridge chips utilize a 22nm process, rather than the 32nm used in Sandy Bridge). To be fair, Intel has always officially stated that the chips would ship in the second quarter of 2012, and a June release would sneak in just under the wire. Whether the delay is cause for concern over future Ivy Bridge chip yields, however, remains to be seen.

Update: It appears Intel didn't like the inference that it was having issues with Ivy Bridge. A spokesman reached out to CNET to clarify that Intel's schedule "has only been impacted by a few weeks," and that the company expects to ship over 50 percent more Ivy Bridge units in the first two quarters of availability than it did with the Sandy Bridge line.

So when TSMC hits a snag for a month everyone goes crazy, but when Intel delays Ivy by a couple of months we should forget it ever happened.

 

[Khato]

That tells me Intel is ahead in the x86/desktop/server space but only on par in the mobile space.

Exactly. There's no denying that Intel allowed their mobile offerings to languish on the back burner for a bit too long, hence why they're currently at a node geometry disadvantage compared to the competition. (Note that such doesn't necessarily translate to a process technology advantage however as power/leakage characteristics are determined by more than just the node geometry size.)

Unfortunately, even with the attention it deserves it's going to take Intel time to play to their manufacturing strength in the mobile space due to design team constraints. However, if they do deliver on the planned 22nm offerings in 2013 and 14nm in 2014... well, then they'll have the manufacturing advantage in the mobile space.

 

[ShintaiDK]

You have a very selective memory.



So when TSMC hits a snag for a month everyone goes crazy, but when Intel delays Ivy by a couple of months we should forget it ever happened.

I said rarely, plus you should read the article that says few weeks. With TSMC/GloFo its basicly the same rerun every single time, and its alot more than a month. Not to mention TSMC had to stop 28nm production as well. 40nm was so terrible that TSMC CEO Rick Tsai got fired.

 

[pelov]

I said rarely, plus you should read the article that says few weeks. With TSMC its basicly the same rerun every single time, and its alot more than a month. Not to mention TSMC had to stop 28nm production as well.

More than a few people noticed Intel's roadmap originally slated 45nm Penryn desktop quad-core processors for January, only to have the company change the hard launch date to a not-so-firm "Q1 2008." So what happened? In a series of interviews, the tale of quad-core Penryn began to unfold.

Processor engineers, speaking on background, detailed the problem. "Intel is very sensitive to mean time to failures. During a simulation, at high clock frequencies, engineers noticed an increase of potential failures after a designated amount of time."

Given the eye-popping earnings that tech companies have reported for the first quarter of this year, it seems that consumer wallets are open once again. This surge in buying has prompted the mother of all inventory restockings, as OEMs like Acer gobble up parts and build up a supply of systems to meet the increase in demand.

Intel, it seems, has been caught flat-footed by the strength of the restocking surge, and is unable to meet the demand for the supply of 32nm mobile chips. The chipmaker is seeing shortages of its Arrandale chips, and IDG reports that Arrandale prices are being bid up by as much as 20 percent on the open market as a result.

Not only are prices for Arrandale jumping, but analysts expect that many OEMs will have to delay the launch of their newer laptop lines because they can't get enough CPUs to go to market. If this actually turns out to be the case, NVIDIA may see some collateral damage, because this would mean a delay in the rollout of Optimus systems.

On the recent Intel earnings call, CEO Paul Otellini admitted that the company is "slightly behind" in meeting the demand for 32nm parts, but said the company is ramping up production and anticipates that the pressure should ease in the second quarter.

That sounds familiar, doesn't it? Ramping up wasn't keeping pace with demand and a node (22nm) with yield issues?

 

[ShintaiDK]

What did Penryn have to do with capacity and yield issues?

Intel rarely faces the issues that Qualcomm and others faces right now. Or the same issue that TSMC also had at 40nm and before. GloFo is another utter disaster for example.

Also as a small note, the year of the 32nm shortage. Intel grew 20.7%.

 

[Ajay]

Well they are planning to push the 14nm Atom timeline quite aggressively. And if they do gain marketshare in the handset market then they will need lots and lots of wafer starts per month.

That makes sense, though the CFO underplayed that a bit until Bartiromo pushed him a bit on the issue - maybe just trying to hold his cards a bit closer to his vest before the analyst's call.

 

[Phynaz]

Considering Intel's atom SoC line is lagging behind their laptop/server line... no. What I'm pointing at is exactly what you keep refuting by not refuting it at all:

Again, you keep talking about design, not manufacturing.