Vegas odds on the Patriots winning the Super Bowl.

[RightIsWrong]

Originally posted by: Alistar7

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong

Originally posted by: Injury

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: Injury

Originally posted by: BigJ

Originally posted by: yamadakun

Originally posted by: Drakkon
The odds mean that vegas is still willing to pay out $7 for every $1 bet IF the pats win the SB. Its no longer an indicator of chances they will win/loose. Just what the casinos are willing to risk in temrs of cach based on money being layed out thusfar.

No, it's the other way around.

The Pats are huge huge favor.

If the odds are 7:1, that means the payout is $7 for every $1 bet. He is indeed correct. The problem though is that the odds for them isn't 7:1. It's ~1:5, or for every dollar you bet, you only get $0.20.

That makes little to no sense... wouldn't the minimum odds you could have be 1:1?

1:1 means that for every dollar wagered, you can receive your $1 back plu $1 in winnings.

1:5 means that for every $5 you wager, you can receive $1 in winnings.

Exactly, so why would anyone make odds that basically say "You lose if you win!"

They aren't saying that at all.

What Vegas/bookies are saying is that NE is the "chalk" bet and that every Joe-I wanna wager cause it's the playoffs and the only team I have heard about this year is NE" is more than likely going to pick them so they are only willing to "guarantee" you a 20% return on your money instead of the usual 100-1000% return by betting on a "longshot".

Vegas/bookies don't care who you bet on only that you are betting. If they are getting hammered on one side of a line...they are just going to lay off on the other side with another bookie so that they can hedge their bet.

They just want to sit back and eat up the juice and don't care who wins any particular event/wager.

The way you make it sound the house always wins. Imagine if you could run a business or casino with that type of guarantee, it would be a $ maker.

Sadly...the house does almost always win.

Future bets like these are incredibly easy to manage for most casinos or bookies. You know far in advance where the money is being placed and have plenty of time to bet the other side.

In the rare event that they (casino/bookies) do get hit, it is something more along the lines of a fluke where a game falls on the line and they get middled. But that only happens on straight line betting and is not applicable to futures.

Example:

Pats/Indy game has a line of Pats -7. Normal betting actions cause the line to fluctuate slightly (as the money gets heavy on one side of the line the oddsmakers change the line to induce more betting on the other side to even things out...remember, they really just care about the juice (the percentage you have to pay if you loose (usually 110 to win 100)). These small fluctuations cause the line to deviate from the 7 points to 6.5 or 7.5. if the game falls on the number (7 in this case), the bookies loose big time.

They push on all bets that were places at 7, the loose all bets where anyone took NE -6.5 and they lose all bets where anyone took Indy at +7.5.

 

[abaez]

Originally posted by: Injury

Originally posted by: BigJ

Originally posted by: yamadakun

Originally posted by: Drakkon
The odds mean that vegas is still willing to pay out $7 for every $1 bet IF the pats win the SB. Its no longer an indicator of chances they will win/loose. Just what the casinos are willing to risk in temrs of cach based on money being layed out thusfar.

No, it's the other way around.

The Pats are huge huge favor.

If the odds are 7:1, that means the payout is $7 for every $1 bet. He is indeed correct. The problem though is that the odds for them isn't 7:1. It's ~1:5, or for every dollar you bet, you only get $0.20.

That makes little to no sense... wouldn't the minimum odds you could have be 1:1?

Doesn't 7:1 mean for every $7 you bet you will win $1?

 

[austin316]

man you guys were originally way off. 7:1 odds for the Pats is insane. It is much much much lower, as stated above, most likely 1:5, meaning if you lay a dime, you win $1200. (Bet $1,000, win $200 plus your original bet).

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: austin316
man you guys were originally way off. 7:1 odds for the Pats is insane. It is much much much lower, as stated above, most likely 1:5, meaning if you lay a dime, you win $1200. (Bet $1,000, win $200 plus your original bet).

7:1 odds were posted early December, current odds are 1:5 or 1:3 at Bodog.

Check your sarcasm meter RightIsWrong, I understand how they hedge their bets.

 

[RightIsWrong]

That's the last time I buy alkaline.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Originally posted by: Sadly...the house does almost always win.

Future bets like these are incredibly easy to manage for most casinos or bookies. You know far in advance where the money is being placed and have plenty of time to bet the other side.

In the rare event that they (casino/bookies) do get hit, it is something more along the lines of a fluke where a game falls on the line and they get middled. But that only happens on straight line betting and is not applicable to futures.

Example:

Pats/Indy game has a line of Pats -7. Normal betting actions cause the line to fluctuate slightly (as the money gets heavy on one side of the line the oddsmakers change the line to induce more betting on the other side to even things out...remember, they really just care about the juice (the percentage you have to pay if you loose (usually 110 to win 100)). These small fluctuations cause the line to deviate from the 7 points to 6.5 or 7.5. if the game falls on the number (7 in this case), the bookies loose big time.

They push on all bets that were places at 7, the loose all bets where anyone took NE -6.5 and they lose all bets where anyone took Indy at +7.5.

The example you cite is extemely rare and a mistake by an inexperienced bookie.

A Push is the most undesireable thing to a bookie (no juice), that's why the prevelance of 1/2 points. Half points and unlikely spreads like 2 or 8 insure that there is a winner and a loser and hence the all important "juice"

If a bookie uses the proper mathematically correct approach and the has right connections in each market to cover, it is near impossible to lose money. The problem comes as many bookies are also gamblers and may hedge their postion on certain games and thats where they get in trouble.

 

[RightIsWrong]

Originally posted by: GuitarDaddy

Originally posted by: Sadly...the house does almost always win.

Future bets like these are incredibly easy to manage for most casinos or bookies. You know far in advance where the money is being placed and have plenty of time to bet the other side.

In the rare event that they (casino/bookies) do get hit, it is something more along the lines of a fluke where a game falls on the line and they get middled. But that only happens on straight line betting and is not applicable to futures.

Example:

Pats/Indy game has a line of Pats -7. Normal betting actions cause the line to fluctuate slightly (as the money gets heavy on one side of the line the oddsmakers change the line to induce more betting on the other side to even things out...remember, they really just care about the juice (the percentage you have to pay if you loose (usually 110 to win 100)). These small fluctuations cause the line to deviate from the 7 points to 6.5 or 7.5. if the game falls on the number (7 in this case), the bookies loose big time.

They push on all bets that were places at 7, the loose all bets where anyone took NE -6.5 and they lose all bets where anyone took Indy at +7.5.

The example you cite is extemely rare and a mistake by an inexperienced bookie.

A Push is the most undesireable thing to a bookie (no juice), that's why the prevelance of 1/2 points. Half points and unlikely spreads like 2 or 8 insure that there is a winner and a loser and hence the all important "juice"

If a bookie uses the proper mathematically correct approach and the has right connections in each market to cover, it is near impossible to lose money. The problem comes as many bookies are also gamblers and may hedge their postion on certain games and thats where they get in trouble.

There sure are a lot of inexperienced bookies running Vegas casinos these days.

Look at all of those lines near or at 3, 7, 10 and 14!!

And with the ability to "buy" 1/2 points.....it sure looks like Vegas could use you to set some lines.

 

[DayLaPaul]

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong

Originally posted by: GuitarDaddy

Originally posted by: Sadly...the house does almost always win.

Future bets like these are incredibly easy to manage for most casinos or bookies. You know far in advance where the money is being placed and have plenty of time to bet the other side.

In the rare event that they (casino/bookies) do get hit, it is something more along the lines of a fluke where a game falls on the line and they get middled. But that only happens on straight line betting and is not applicable to futures.

Example:

Pats/Indy game has a line of Pats -7. Normal betting actions cause the line to fluctuate slightly (as the money gets heavy on one side of the line the oddsmakers change the line to induce more betting on the other side to even things out...remember, they really just care about the juice (the percentage you have to pay if you loose (usually 110 to win 100)). These small fluctuations cause the line to deviate from the 7 points to 6.5 or 7.5. if the game falls on the number (7 in this case), the bookies loose big time.

They push on all bets that were places at 7, the loose all bets where anyone took NE -6.5 and they lose all bets where anyone took Indy at +7.5.

The example you cite is extemely rare and a mistake by an inexperienced bookie.

A Push is the most undesireable thing to a bookie (no juice), that's why the prevelance of 1/2 points. Half points and unlikely spreads like 2 or 8 insure that there is a winner and a loser and hence the all important "juice"

If a bookie uses the proper mathematically correct approach and the has right connections in each market to cover, it is near impossible to lose money. The problem comes as many bookies are also gamblers and may hedge their postion on certain games and thats where they get in trouble.

There sure are a lot of inexperienced bookies running Vegas casinos these days.

Look at all of those lines near or at 3, 7, 10 and 14!!

And with the ability to "buy" 1/2 points.....it sure looks like Vegas could use you to set some lines.

I don't know what you expected us to gather from that link, but as an experienced sportsbetter, my opinion is that your link helps prove his point.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman

Originally posted by: Farang
Giving those kind of odds against Indianapolis is foolish.

Coming from the betting guru. How's that van down by the river?

I bet the van on the Giants this week, I'm going to be getting everything back shortly.

 

[SampSon]

Jags have a good line, so do the steelers.