[ Various] NVIDIA could launch Pascal-based mobile GPUs by end-2016

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Samwell

Senior member
May 10, 2015
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Thanks, great link. Some things about that are crazy though and don't make any sense.
IE, 4:05, he hypothesises on a 10mmx10mm die, which would be 1/3rd the length and 1/9th the area of Pascal. That would be a 900mm² die for Pascal, which is outside the realm of possibility.
At 16:00 he says they have Pascal in the lab, but no indication of what one. It could be any of the production GPUs, or even a test chip for the architecture. Hopefully it is GP100 and we might see at least a Titan version late 2016/early 2017, but I'm not holding my breathe quite yet.

It can't be just the gpu, but i believe 900mm² is the interposer size. Fiji was above 1000 mm², so this Gpu should be a bit smaller. 500 mm² sounds fitting.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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Well perf/watt may not be relevant to some High-End GPU Desktop users but its everything in Laptops. And since Laptop volumes are almost double that of PCs the last one/two years, having high sales in that segment with high margins is what both AMD and NV are targeting.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
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It can't be just the gpu, but i believe 900mm² is the interposer size. Fiji was above 1000 mm², so this Gpu should be a bit smaller. 500 mm² sounds fitting.

That could be. It doesn't really fit into the context of what he was talking about, but it seems a lot more sensical than a 900mm² GPU.

Not sure on the size though, I think it would be significantly smaller on a 900mm² interposer. Fiji's interposer is ~36.3mmx27.8mm, and the Fiji die itself was 23.2mmx25.8mm. If the interposer size was scaled linearly, that would be about 34.3mmx26.2mm. Keep in mind HBM2 is significantly larger than HBM1 though, 7.75mmx11.87mm compared with 5.48mmx7.29mm. The long dimension won't make a big difference, but larger HBM2 package means the memory will take up 4.5mm more length in the long dimension. If GP100 was on a 900mm² interposer and using HBM2, it would probably be a lot closer to 400mm².

Of course, 1/3rd and 1/9th are really imprecise measurements, so who knows what the actual interposer would be.
 
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Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
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I really cant wait for some more tangible info about Pascal, these little tidbits and guesswork is killing me...not that reading these speculations is not fun, but i would still prefer to know, since this is first time in years i am actually planning to buy GPU and i am willing to buy high-end one, even Titan possibly.

If it turns out to be just slightly faster than 980Ti/TitanX (only about +25 percent), will cost 1000+ EUROs and will come next fall or later, i will be truly annoyed.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
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Even if AMD has the "better" laptop part, the laptop market is all about design wins.

The low end market of GPUs is all about using the brand/performance of the high end to sell the low end parts. The people reading tons of reviews for a GTX 750ti level part are not many. People will just go with the low end Nvidia chip.

AMD has to make waves and get headlines, and having the fastest chip out is what does that. Not having great price/performance ratio budget gpus.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
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Even if AMD has the "better" laptop part, the laptop market is all about design wins.

The low end market of GPUs is all about using the brand/performance of the high end to sell the low end parts. The people reading tons of reviews for a GTX 750ti level part are not many. People will just go with the low end Nvidia chip.

AMD has to make waves and get headlines, and having the fastest chip out is what does that. Not having great price/performance ratio budget gpus.

How about if they win the Macbook Pro again? That's a pretty high profile mobile win.
 

3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
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It doesn't matter to the enduser. No one sits around calculating perf/w at home and buys based on what card finishes on top. I already posed the question of why the major review sites don't track the metric, and as usual you ignored it and tried to change the angle. You can twist what I said however you feel to try and make an argument out of it.

I didn't ignore it. All sites report power usage. Most sites report overall system power, which could be argued is most important, but would skew the perf/W result.

As far as none of them reporting it? Here ya go.
perfwatt_2560_1440.png
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
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How about if they win the Macbook Pro again? That's a pretty high profile mobile win.
Yes and that's the most important one for them. Otherwise I don't think oems are going to care about the performance of an amd laptop part. What matters is what the customer wants, and until amd changes brand perception it doesn't matter how good the part is if oems don't want to use it because their customers prefer nvidia.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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Yes and that's the most important one for them. Otherwise I don't think oems are going to care about the performance of an amd laptop part. What matters is what the customer wants, and until amd changes brand perception it doesn't matter how good the part is if oems don't want to use it because their customers prefer nvidia.

Laptop users dont care about AMD vs NVIDIA like Desktop users, if the laptop has a dGPU and not Intel iGPU its fine. Some times you see dGPUs installed to laptops that are far inferior to Intels iGPU and people still prefer them.
OEMs will use whatever is the best dGPU at perf/watt and at lower price than the competition. If AMD can have a very competitive Laptop dGPU can get more design wins that what they had in 2015.
And i have a feeling that DX-12 will help even more for CrossFire with APUs as well, especially from 2017 with ZEN APUs that will have Polaris iGPUs.
 

Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
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Laptop users dont care about AMD vs NVIDIA like Desktop users, if the laptop has a dGPU and not Intel iGPU its fine. Some times you see dGPUs installed to laptops that are far inferior to Intels iGPU and people still prefer them.
OEMs will use whatever is the best dGPU at perf/watt and at lower price than the competition. If AMD can have a very competitive Laptop dGPU can get more design wins that what they had in 2015.

Mid - High end laptop users (i.e. those buying laptops with discrete graphics) care just as much as everyone else about brand. You don't spend your hard earned money on a laptop without researching what goes in it.

AMD's problem's are more then not having a competitive gpu. There is a massive brand preference for Nvidia, and a not undeserved feeling that AMD is the cheap option. Personally I wouldn't go near AMD in a laptop due to their drivers sucking. Optimus isn't perfect but it's far better then anything AMD have ever managed to produce. I like most laptop users care much more about my games reliably working, then about 10% performance here or there. Equally system builders don't want lots of support calls about broken AMD drivers.

AMD can change that perception but it's not going to happen overnight, and like most things will cost money - you get what you pay for - something I have little hope AMD will manage as even when AMD was a lot better off then they are now they failed to produce decent laptop drivers.
 

3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
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All AMD has to do is get the OEM win. It's then up to the OEM to sell them to (e/re)tailers and them to sell it to the consumer. AMD can help with other marketing like bundles, etc... but in the end they only sell to the OEM not the public.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
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Mid - High end laptop users (i.e. those buying laptops with discrete graphics) care just as much as everyone else about brand. You don't spend your hard earned money on a laptop without researching what goes in it.

AMD's problem's are more then not having a competitive gpu. There is a massive brand preference for Nvidia, and a not undeserved feeling that AMD is the cheap option. Personally I wouldn't go near AMD in a laptop due to their drivers sucking. Optimus isn't perfect but it's far better then anything AMD have ever managed to produce. I like most laptop users care much more about my games reliably working, then about 10% performance here or there. Equally system builders don't want lots of support calls about broken AMD drivers.

AMD can change that perception but it's not going to happen overnight, and like most things will cost money - you get what you pay for - something I have little hope AMD will manage as even when AMD was a lot better off then they are now they failed to produce decent laptop drivers.

I specifically avoided amd on my laptop purchase. I have a high end gaming laptop as my first high-end rig and I went for the high end nvidia chip.

Good choice since amd was horrendous at the time in mobile, but still, to downplay the brand is ludicrous and I agree with you dribble.

Most people I know who pc game are nvidia only. They don't even really know much of anything about amd other than their cpus definitely suck, and their gpus probably suck too by association. And their loud and hot gpus while nvidia are quiet and cool with good driver support. That's the most I've seen people know...

Too many forum users live in a bubble where they think other people read reviews as much as we do.... Newsflash, they're playing games, not reading benchmark reviews of gpus/games.... That's a very small groups of people who do that, who then make recommendations to everyone else.

I can see a number of oems having very limited options for amd gpu laptops(if they have them) and nvidia still dominating. Because that's just how strong nvidia brand presence is and you need something more than pitching price/performance. It hasn't worked in the past it won't work now. You need the performance crown at this point t if your amd, or you need an aggressive marketing campaign to show gamers they're being screwed by nvidia. Otherwise, I can see amd holding onto apple, but everyone else will require more work. Apple is actually the easiest one to get for amd. Their customer base is loyal to Apple, if Apple used horse poop for gpus, Apple fans will defend it. If dell uses amd as their primary laptop gpu, people will switch go a laptop vendor that gives them the gpu they want
 
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AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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The vast majority of laptop dGPUs are not the high-end models you two are using. You will have to understand that IF Polaris 10 will be available to OEMs 3-6 months earlier than NVs counterpart they will jump like no tomorrow.
The NV perception is higher in Laptops today because Maxwell is better for Laptops than AMDs offerings. IF Polaris is better than Maxwell and comes 3-6 months earlier it will completely change the public perception also.
Just imagine a Polaris laptop against Maxwell, same price, higher performance in DX-12 title that will be available at the time of release and at lower power consumption OR thinner chassis.
Even you two would prefer this over the NV offerings.
 

xpea

Senior member
Feb 14, 2014
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The vast majority of laptop dGPUs are not the high-end models you two are using. You will have to understand that IF Polaris 10 will be available to OEMs 3-6 months earlier than NVs counterpart they will jump like no tomorrow.
The NV perception is higher in Laptops today because Maxwell is better for Laptops than AMDs offerings. IF Polaris is better than Maxwell and comes 3-6 months earlier it will completely change the public perception also.
Just imagine a Polaris laptop against Maxwell, same price, higher performance in DX-12 title that will be available at the time of release and at lower power consumption OR thinner chassis.
Even you two would prefer this over the NV offerings.
All true but good hardware is not enough. In fact you forget 2 very very very important points:
1/ Many OEMS don't want to deal anymore with AMD dGPUs for laptop because of their terrible drivers. One OEM even said that AMD dGPUs give 10 times more work for the technical support dpt than Nvidia solution. Optimus killed AMD...
2/ Nvidia has a very aggressive marketing program to promote their brand in laptops (stickers and rebates).

So how is AMD driver state on laptops ? is their optimus solution good enough now ? and are they ready to put money on the table to persuade OEMs to switch ?
 

USER8000

Golden Member
Jun 23, 2012
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All true but good hardware is not enough. In fact you forget 2 very very very important points:
1/ Many OEMS don't want to deal anymore with AMD dGPUs for laptop because of their terrible drivers. One OEM even said that AMD dGPUs give 10 times more work for the technical support dpt than Nvidia solution. Optimus killed AMD...
2/ Nvidia has a very aggressive marketing program to promote their brand in laptops (stickers and rebates).

So how is AMD driver state on laptops ? is their optimus solution good enough now ? and are they ready to put money on the table to persuade OEMs to switch ?

It goes in cycles - dGPUs in laptops are not new,as I remember them even 10 to 12 years.

You forget the G92 series and its derivatives did very well in laptops when compared to what ATI had out at the time.

However,when ATI/AMD released the HD5000/HD6000 series they managed to get lots of laptop wins which subsequently started ebbing away after Kepler being launched.

Nvidia even 12 years ago sold more than AMD/ATI and had greater brand strength,but it still means if AMD get decent parts out before Nvidia they will get more wins.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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Most people here dont know that AMD still has 30-35% of the Laptop Discrete GPU Market share in 2015. If they will release Polaris 3-6 months ahead of NV they will easily increase their market share and make some good profit.

92a.jpg
 
Feb 19, 2009
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Volume would decline, but probably not revenue or margins. Similar for desktops, where the encroaching iGPU has shifted everything up in price & segment.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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Volume would decline, but probably not revenue or margins. Similar for desktops, where the encroaching iGPU has shifted everything up in price & segment.

Agree. Those dGPUs left move upwards cost wise. Just as we see on the desktop. Big decline in volume, big increase in higher end parts.