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US to put $50B in tariffs on China. China to retaliate.

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Well now he’s looking for an additional $200B in tariff targets on China which will have a huge impact.

Apparently this economy is just too good.
 
MomentsofSanity said:
Well now he’s looking for an additional $200B in tariff targets on China which will have a huge impact.

Apparently this economy is just too good.
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Don't worry. Recent tax cuts give the big boys plenty of liquidity to finance a recovery... starting from fire sale prices, of course.
 
Jhhnn said:
Don't worry. Recent tax cuts give the big boys plenty of liquidity to finance a recovery... starting from fire sale prices, of course.
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Don't be silly. That money has already been earmarked for stock buybacks, mergers, and executive bonuses. When the recovery needs to be financed they will need a taxpayer bailout like always.
 
How does China come out ahead if there is already a trade deficit? E.g. if US annual trade export to China is $300B but China’s export to US is $800B, and both parties put $300B in tariff’s, that leaves $500B more that the US can put tariffs on. So why would China even threaten to retaliate with tariffs if they have a lot more to lose?
 
ericlp said:
Well, when it happens and the stock market tanks... will be a good time to get in, just as he reverses everything he says so that maybe someone (but trump) can pick up the pieces and save face?
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God I hope not I'm getting ready to retire
 
baydude said:
How does China come out ahead if there is already a trade deficit? E.g. if US annual trade export to China is $300B but China’s export to US is $800B, and both parties put $300B in tariff’s, that leaves $500B more that the US can put tariffs on. So why would China even threaten to retaliate with tariffs if they have a lot more to lose?
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Eventually China would run out of things to tariff before we would, that's true. But they have other levers to pull which could cause a lot of damage (currency adjustments, purchases of US debt, NK sanctions, etc). Effectively ending US exports to China will also have outsized effects on particular industries like agriculture, energy, aircraft sales, etc.

The issue has moved beyond sheer economics now anyway. China isn't going to accept being seen as weak in the face of a belligerent US president regardless of the economic consequences. Simple as that.
 
baydude said:
How does China come out ahead if there is already a trade deficit? E.g. if US annual trade export to China is $300B but China’s export to US is $800B, and both parties put $300B in tariff’s, that leaves $500B more that the US can put tariffs on. So why would China even threaten to retaliate with tariffs if they have a lot more to lose?
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Because they sell to more than just the United States. Because they can lock the tariffs to the same 3/8 ratio. Then it basically comes down to an economic game of chicken. Who blinks first.

It will be America. We have known this for a long time. It is why we don't do trade wars. The easiest way to get voted out of office in America is to do something to rock the economic boat. All China has to do is wait. America might put up with putting children in cages or making deals with tyrants but cause Walmart to stop rolling back prices and we will pull out the pitchforks.
 
baydude said:
How does China come out ahead if there is already a trade deficit? E.g. if US annual trade export to China is $300B but China’s export to US is $800B, and both parties put $300B in tariff’s, that leaves $500B more that the US can put tariffs on. So why would China even threaten to retaliate with tariffs if they have a lot more to lose?
Click to expand...
Countries DON'T come out ahead in trade wars. On that point you are correct. China does not want this because China cannot win. On the flip side, the US cannot win either. All that the US can do is move a meaningless number to $0 (trade deficit).

Like others have said above, China can make the pain equal or greater for the US. A 10% tax on $200B of Chinese goods is $20B. China can put a 50% tax on $40B of US goods and still have an $20B equal tax.

But, China has a far bigger weapon: $1.2 trillion of US debt. Stop buying US treasuries (or worse, start selling them) and the interest rates that the US pays will skyrocket. The fed wouldn't be able to control interest rates, China would. It could be bad enough that the US couldn't finance its recent tax cut and spending increases. The US might be forced into tax increases and spending cuts which can harm the US economy far more than the fairly small tariffs that the US can place on China.
 
dullard said:
...

But, China has a far bigger weapon: $1.2 trillion of US debt. Stop buying US treasuries (or worse, start selling them) and the interest rates that the US pays will skyrocket. The fed wouldn't be able to control interest rates, China would. It could be bad enough that the US couldn't finance its recent tax cut and spending increases. The US might be forced into tax increases and spending cuts which can harm the US economy far more than the fairly small tariffs that the US can place on China.
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I think this is great and exactly what America deserves.
 
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dullard said:
Countries DON'T come out ahead in trade wars. On that point you are correct. China does not want this because China cannot win. On the flip side, the US cannot win either. All that the US can do is move a meaningless number to $0 (trade deficit).

Like others have said above, China can make the pain equal or greater for the US. A 10% tax on $200B of Chinese goods is $20B. China can put a 50% tax on $40B of US goods and still have an $20B equal tax.

But, China has a far bigger weapon: $1.2 trillion of US debt. Stop buying US treasuries (or worse, start selling them) and the interest rates that the US pays will skyrocket. The fed wouldn't be able to control interest rates, China would. It could be bad enough that the US couldn't finance its recent tax cut and spending increases. The US might be forced into tax increases and spending cuts which can harm the US economy far more than the fairly small tariffs that the US can place on China.
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You just put more effort into this, and added more detail, than Trump and some number approaching 100% of his supporters will attempt*. Too many large words and concepts in macro-economics for a soundbite nation that only wants simplistic good vs evil premises.

*The exceptions are the ultra-rich looking to make a killing when the economy tanks.
 
BUTCH1 said:
The situation is much more complex than that. Young people today are encouraged to opt for a 4 year degree often falling into massive debt to do so, if they cannot find work, the loans are still due. In times past many were also encouraged to opt for a trade school, this is seen as "dirty" work today but those jobs now are paying well and hopefully this trend continues. Simple manual labor non-skilled jobs will not pay enough to manufacture here in the US, that's why so many Co's have chose to relocate operations to Mexico. No workers comp to pay, no overtime laws, no matching SS to pay either and rock-bottom wages.
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I'm a firm believer in trade schools as I'm a graduate of Devry. This country has no respect for manual labor. You know how I know? Wages. I remember asking my lawyer grandfather when I was a little kid, why does someone who just sits at desk all day make more money than a guy digging a ditch. He laughed and said sometimes I wonder too.
 
SMOGZINN said:
Don't be silly. That money has already been earmarked for stock buybacks, mergers, and executive bonuses. When the recovery needs to be financed they will need a taxpayer bailout like always.
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There won't be any bailout if the govt is buried under debt. Then the whole thing can plunge to the depths demanded by free market ideology. Stabilizers? Don't need no steenking stabilizers. The best time to be rich is when the rest are broke, busted & begging. That's when you can really put the bone to 'em.
 
Jhhnn said:
There won't be any bailout if the govt is buried under debt.
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Don't be such a pessimist. Sure we can! America has never met a debt so big it couldn't borrow more! All it takes is a vote. It is up to our great, great, great, (I don't know how many greats we are up to now to get all this paid off, it is more than two) grandchildren to figure out how to pay it back. Luckily those voting for it won't be around to blame. That is what makes this game so much fun!

Then the whole thing can plunge to the depths demanded by free market ideology. Stabilizers? Don't need no steenking stabilizers. The best time to be rich is when the rest are broke, busted & begging. That's when you can really put the bone to 'em.
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Sure, and that time will come. But for now they can still make MOAR!
 
The markets may not be in bear territory yet, but this is the real danger with Trump. There's no strategy, just ego. He escalates and counter-escalates. I suspect eventually he will concede and then claim he's won something, when in reality he's just agreeing to whatever was already proposed.

We can shrug it off at first, but at some point, people and markets, are going to eventually come to the conclusion that this idiot is no businessman, no negotiator, and has no idea what he's doing. But he has trillions of dollars of treasury and God-like powers in his hands. What could go wrong?
 
dullard said:
Countries DON'T come out ahead in trade wars. On that point you are correct. China does not want this because China cannot win. On the flip side, the US cannot win either. All that the US can do is move a meaningless number to $0 (trade deficit).

Like others have said above, China can make the pain equal or greater for the US. A 10% tax on $200B of Chinese goods is $20B. China can put a 50% tax on $40B of US goods and still have an $20B equal tax.

But, China has a far bigger weapon: $1.2 trillion of US debt. Stop buying US treasuries (or worse, start selling them) and the interest rates that the US pays will skyrocket. The fed wouldn't be able to control interest rates, China would. It could be bad enough that the US couldn't finance its recent tax cut and spending increases. The US might be forced into tax increases and spending cuts which can harm the US economy far more than the fairly small tariffs that the US can place on China.
Click to expand...


And Trump pissed off Japan so they are not inclined to soak up more of the US debt either. In fact none of the "allies" Trump pissed on will.

Oops.
 
hal2kilo said:
I'm a firm believer in trade schools as I'm a graduate of Devry. This country has no respect for manual labor. You know how I know? Wages. I remember asking my lawyer grandfather when I was a little kid, why does someone who just sits at desk all day make more money than a guy digging a ditch. He laughed and said sometimes I wonder too.
Click to expand...
As the need for pipefitters/welders/mechanics/machinists grows with little pool to choose from, those with those skills will be the one's laughing as they will get mad $$ for their abilities.
 
darkswordsman17 said:
I don't care if its a card game with 7 year olds, you should be concerned about someone bluffing when its not their money on the line.
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Trump: "Never play with your own money. It's just smart!"

lol at Trump supporters. What a bunch of fucking loser cocks. Every single one of them. I hope they are driven to poverty because of their choices. I hope Jesus forsakes them, as they deserve. I hope they endure the trials of Job, and still pray that Trump will return to save them, for eternity.

What a bunch of fucks.
 
dullard said:
Countries DON'T come out ahead in trade wars. On that point you are correct. China does not want this because China cannot win. On the flip side, the US cannot win either. All that the US can do is move a meaningless number to $0 (trade deficit).

Like others have said above, China can make the pain equal or greater for the US. A 10% tax on $200B of Chinese goods is $20B. China can put a 50% tax on $40B of US goods and still have an $20B equal tax.

But, China has a far bigger weapon: $1.2 trillion of US debt. Stop buying US treasuries (or worse, start selling them) and the interest rates that the US pays will skyrocket. The fed wouldn't be able to control interest rates, China would. It could be bad enough that the US couldn't finance its recent tax cut and spending increases. The US might be forced into tax increases and spending cuts which can harm the US economy far more than the fairly small tariffs that the US can place on China.
Click to expand...

After reading analysis on the subject, leveraging it's US Debt holdings would hurt China just as much as helping it, at best. It would only work if a number of countries did it together, and stopped buying more.
 
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