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US should copy Canadian policy

Stunt

Stunt

Diamond Member
So in case you haven't noticed: the US's debt is ballooning out of control, the currency is going to crap and the deficit isn't going anywhere soon.

Now many Republicans blame these not on Bush's tax cuts but the recession/tech bubble.
One problem with that theory...Canada went through the same.

If you look at our industry, people, costs, etc...Canada and the US are very similar. The one difference i could see is that the US is a larger scale (approx times 10) and the population is far more dense (easier to deliver services - roads, elec, health, education).

In contrast to your fiscal troubles, we are sitting pretty with some serious coin. Our dollar is high, we had a surplus of almost 9 billion in the most recent year. Our debt to GDP level is at 44% and our prime minister is intending to take it to about 25% by 2010. The more debt paid off the less interest paid and more money comes in to play with. The US by contrast is sitting at almost 70% debt to gdp levels.

Why doesnt the US take some policy tips from Canada and get the country on the right track to fiscal soundness.

I know Americans think Canadians are too liberal, but the results speak for themselves.
 
Americans are very determined people. Once they set up a ridiculously system they stick with it. It's the same with our worthless President. We'll stick with him just for the sake of perversity.
 
Originally posted by: XZeroII
Hmmmm, 70% debt compared to 44% debt. Wow, that is pretty impressive.
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Well you don't see many Canadians freaking out ditching their currency, jumping to foreign markets and investing in gold. The sustainability of your economy is being questioned, and 70% and growing fast is MUCH better than 44% and dropping fast.

I'm assuming you were being sarcastic btw.
Just wait 10 years down the road and Canada will be close to debt free, the US however...well lets hope the debt will not outpace your gdp. 😛
 
In the 1940s we ran a debt to gdp ratio around 120%.
In the 50s it was in the 90s and 80s.

This isnt the first time we have been at this ratio of debt to gdp. In fact compared to clintons years the ratio is pretty close. Clinton except for the last couple of years was in the mid 60s. This year it is supposed to be about 65% and next year 67%.

I think they need to at least grow the deficit at the rate of inflation. But I would prefer if they would balance the budget.
 
While the financial discipline your government has shown is admirable and worthy of being emulated here, I think you can admit as well that a good deal of the credit for your current situation needs to go to factors outside of your control which are working to your benefit on the export side of the house. Such as the skyrocketing prices of natural resources which you export (namely energy, since lumber has been a relative soft spot), agricultural and fisheries products enjoying a good export run, and American auto makers importing parts and/or entire vehicles from your country. While your government's fiscal policy should help sustain your current economic boom I don't think you should make the leap to suggest that it caused it. Since commodity prices can be fickle you're being very smart to pay down your debt while the prices are high.

 
BTW, my money is in Canadian companies, natural resources, and gold.
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I sure hope you've hedged your long positions in natural resources with puts, since IMHO they're close to, if not at their cyclical top right now. Bond market seems to be betting on a slowdown in 2005 and I agree with them and not the equities traders. If the bond traders are right that will wipe out your gains in any commodity stocks if you're greedy and don't take profits after this huge run-up.
 
Originally posted by: glenn1
While the financial discipline your government has shown is admirable and worthy of being emulated here, I think you can admit as well that a good deal of the credit for your current situation needs to go to factors outside of your control which are working to your benefit on the export side of the house. Such as the skyrocketing prices of natural resources which you export (namely energy, since lumber has been a relative soft spot), agricultural and fisheries products enjoying a good export run, and American auto makers importing parts and/or entire vehicles from your country. While your government's fiscal policy should help sustain your current economic boom I don't think you should make the leap to suggest that it caused it. Since commodity prices can be fickle you're being very smart to pay down your debt while the prices are high.
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Very good points. But do you have numbers on percent GDP for each sector, i'd like to see how different our gdp composition is...cuz the US has fishing, forestry and oil as well 🙂

Found this, but is pretty useless.
US:
agriculture: 1.4%
industry: 26.2%
services: 72.5% (2003 est.)

Canada:
agriculture: 2.2%
industry: 29.2%
services: 68.6% (2003 est.)
 
Originally posted by: glenn1
BTW, my money is in Canadian companies, natural resources, and gold.
Click to expand...

I sure hope you've hedged your long positions in natural resources with puts, since IMHO they're close to, if not at their cyclical top right now. Bond market seems to be betting on a slowdown in 2005 and I agree with them and not the equities traders. If the bond traders are right that will wipe out your gains in any commodity stocks if you're greedy and don't take profits after this huge run-up.
Click to expand...

I recieved some money to invest from my parents, i put it all into an energy fund. Mostly oil and gas. Drilling, Extraction, Distribution, Transportation, Sale...pretty much everything related to oil and gas. The fund is doing well. 15% in 4 months. I think that oil is a sparse resource, and with china and india coming online, energy demand is going to continue to grow. Any thoughts on that?
 
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: glenn1
BTW, my money is in Canadian companies, natural resources, and gold.
Click to expand...

I sure hope you've hedged your long positions in natural resources with puts, since IMHO they're close to, if not at their cyclical top right now. Bond market seems to be betting on a slowdown in 2005 and I agree with them and not the equities traders. If the bond traders are right that will wipe out your gains in any commodity stocks if you're greedy and don't take profits after this huge run-up.
Click to expand...

I recieved some money to invest from my parents, i put it all into an energy fund. Mostly oil and gas. Drilling, Extraction, Distribution, Transportation, Sale...pretty much everything related to oil and gas. The fund is doing well. 15% in 4 months. I think that oil is a sparse resource, and with china and india coming online, energy demand is going to continue to grow. Any thoughts on that?
Click to expand...

:thumbsup:


Good plan although I cannot bring myself to invest in them. Anyways I'm invested in the littletechcompanythatcould (AMD!) and have done decently, toward march I'm going all gold/china.
 
One reason why it would be hard for them to do it is that the PM here is very powerful and can more actively pursue his policies. He's both the executive and the chief legislator, while the president has to deal with 2 houses, whose primary interest is pork. So don't expect anything like it any time soon.


on a side note, why isn't the government pursuing a free trade agreement with the EU? Nafta's worked well for us, I'd imagine it would be the same with a "CEUFTA"
 
Very good points. But do you have numbers on percent GDP for each sector, i'd like to see how different our gdp composition is...cuz the US has fishing, forestry and oil as well

Found this, but is pretty useless.
Click to expand...

Were you using the CIA World Factbook for those #s, since they're identical? 🙂

I don't have the numbers to show how close the US and Canadian export/import markets are, although I'd say it's probably fair to say yours has more emphasis on commodities and we probably have an advantage in terms of what I'll just call economic activity based on intangible services and IP (Intellectual Property), think Microsoft or Hollywood for an example of each. Here's some numbers from the Royal Bank, I'll have to look around to see what the Fed Beige Book says this month..

RBOC report

 
Glenn, although you are right that high commodity prices, especially energy, are helping us greatly, you forget that 90% of our exports go to you. You, who have had an economic downturn, and a falling dollar. All this while the Bush administration has mantained and even expanded protectionist measures. And yet we have still maintained a strong position vis a vis our trade with you (although that is showing small signs of slipping).

Also, bear in mind that the Liberal Party of Canada has in the past 12 years or so considerably cut back on spending while cutting taxes (often to capital gains and other investment-oriented cashflows) and still maintained a superior level of economic growth and a significantly greater amount of social equality and class mobility.

Our manufacturing sector has barely budged with all the problems selling to your market has thrown in our faces, and our resource sector has grown well.

There's strenght in our economy. I really don't know where it's coming from. If you had told me 2 years ago what our economy was going to face, I would've probably moved, but by most measures we are doing just fine. (Per hour productivity is stagnating a little bit, but that should pick up as we buy cheap capital from your country).
 
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: glenn1
BTW, my money is in Canadian companies, natural resources, and gold.
Click to expand...

I sure hope you've hedged your long positions in natural resources with puts, since IMHO they're close to, if not at their cyclical top right now. Bond market seems to be betting on a slowdown in 2005 and I agree with them and not the equities traders. If the bond traders are right that will wipe out your gains in any commodity stocks if you're greedy and don't take profits after this huge run-up.
Click to expand...

I recieved some money to invest from my parents, i put it all into an energy fund. Mostly oil and gas. Drilling, Extraction, Distribution, Transportation, Sale...pretty much everything related to oil and gas. The fund is doing well. 15% in 4 months. I think that oil is a sparse resource, and with china and india coming online, energy demand is going to continue to grow. Any thoughts on that?
Click to expand...

:thumbup;


Good plan although I cannot bring myself to invest in them. Anyways I'm invested in the littletechcompanythatcould (AMD!) and have done decently, toward march I'm going all gold/china.
Click to expand...

Not to hijack the thread...although i guess i can...as it is mine 🙂...if you are looking at foriegn markets, i'd be more prone to invest in Russia and India. Russia took a hit with the Yukos and Scandals, so it is sitting low and has good opportunities for the long term. Many investes thing this is the next big front. India will have a larger population than China and is getting a lot of high tech attention, not just manufacturing. I think the Taiwan thing is going to come to a head in the next couple years and make for some unsteady waters looking forward.

As for gold. Record highs, bad time to get into it. if you are looking for a place to hide from the US dollar, try investing in Europe where they have far less ties to the US and stable economies.
 
Glenn, although you are right that high commodity prices, especially energy, are helping us greatly, you forget that 90% of our exports go to you. You, who have had an economic downturn, and a falling dollar. All this while the Bush administration has mantained and even expanded protectionist measures. And yet we have still maintained a strong position vis a vis our trade with you (although that is showing small signs of slipping).

Also, bear in mind that the Liberal Party of Canada has in the past 12 years or so considerably cut back on spending while cutting taxes (often to capital gains and other investment-oriented cashflows) and still maintained a superior level of economic growth and a significantly greater amount of social equality and class mobility.
Click to expand...

Again, I'm not knocking Canada, I'm praising you. But I do think it's fair to point out that one shouldn't completely link economic performance to governmental policies. For an example, one can use President Clinton; his policies didn't create the economic boom in the middle to late 90s, but it certainly didn't hurt and IMHO prolonged it once it caught critical mass and became self-sustaining. Part of it has to do with luck, part of it is smart government leadership. We got the best of both worlds for a few years back then, and it seems you're enjoying a similar renaissance of your own at the moment.
 
I agree. I think that the best thing about our gov't's (ooh, brutal punctuation) policies over the past decade or so has been that it hasn't screwed anything up.

I think that PM Chretien will be remembered as being the best caretaker PM in our nation's history. It allowed us to shore up our strength, hopefully in order to do great things like we were able to in the 60s.

Edit: Now, if only we had some kind of real leader to take us there. I really don't think that Martin has it in him. Then again, few would have thought that Peasron (father of nationwide healthcare, the maple leaf flag, open immigration policies and the very concept of peacekeeping troops) had anything in him, either.

Gonna be a very interesting decade up here, though it'll probably seem boring while we're going through it.

Just the way we like it.

(Dammit!! There's that eternal optimist shining through again.)
 
Originally posted by: SirStev0
personally i think that its canada's fault we are in our bad shape... thats right.. blame canada...
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Geeze, I honestly think that some of you just throw darts at a map and then yell "Bad Guys!!"😉
 
Originally posted by: Kibbo
Originally posted by: SirStev0
personally i think that its canada's fault we are in our bad shape... thats right.. blame canada...
Click to expand...

Geeze, I honestly think that some of you just throw darts at a map and then yell "Bad Guys!!"😉
Click to expand...

I doubt if it's anything that rational.
 
yup but you canadians don't have to fund a military you rely on us to protect you. and don't say that we don't have to ethier...even if we don't use it us just having the abilty to project power keeps alot of contries from mis behaving
 
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