US losing lead in science and engineering

[Engineer]

Click me!

I read from many here that the US is shifting to a technology center more and more and shedding it's manufacturing base. Those that post this mention that workers should update thier skills/education with more up to date technology (still a good idea). But if the US loses the edge in science and engineering, then what? It will become much cheaper to outsource all of those just as we are doing in manufacturing, don't you think?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - More than half a century of U.S. dominance in science and engineering may be slipping as America's share of graduates in these fields falls relative to Europe and developing nations such as China and India, a study released on Friday says.


The study, written by Richard Freeman at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Washington, warned that changes in the global science and engineering job market may require a long period of adjustment for U.S. workers.

Moves by international companies to move jobs in information technology, high-tech manufacturing and research and development to low-income developing countries were just "harbingers" of that longer-term adjustment, Freeman said.

Urgent action was needed to ensure that slippage in science and engineering education and research, a bulwark of the U.S. productivity boom and resurgence during the 1990s, did not undermine America's global economic leadership, he added.

The United States has had a substantial lead in science and technology since World War II. With just 5 percent of the world's population, it employs almost a third of science and engineering researchers, accounts for 40 percent of research and development spending and publishes 35 percent of science and engineering research papers.

Many of the world's top high-tech firms are American, and government spending on defense-related technology ensures the U.S. military's technological dominance on battlefields.

But the roots of this lead may be eroding, Freeman said.

Numbers of science and engineering graduates from European and Asian universities are soaring while new degrees in the United States have stagnated -- cutting its overall share.

In 2000, the paper said, 17 percent of university bachelor degrees in the U.S. were in science and engineering compared with a world average of 27 percent and 52 percent in China.

The picture among doctorates -- key to advanced scientific research -- was more striking. In 2001, universities in the European Union granted 40 percent more science and engineering doctorates than the United States, with that figure expected to reach nearly 100 percent by about 2010, the study showed.

The study said deteriorating opportunities and comparative wages for young science and engineering graduates has discouraged U.S. students from entering these fields, but not those born in other countries.

These trends are challenging the so-called North-South global economic divide, the paper said, by undermining a perceived rich-country advantage in high technology.

"Research and technological activity and production are moving where the people are, even when they are located in the low-wage South," Freeman wrote, citing a study saying some 10-15 percent of all U.S. jobs were "off-shorable."

So the future is technology? Seems China and the rest of the world want it more than we do, just as they are taking away our manufacturing.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Engineer

I read from many here that the US is shifting to a technology center more and more and shedding it's manufacturing base.

Those that post this mention that workers should update thier skills/education with more up to date technology (still a good idea).

But if the US loses the edge in science and engineering, then what?

It will become much cheaper to outsource all of those just as we are doing in manufacturing, don't you think?

Those that mention the updating education and skills are unaffected fat cats.

Bottom line is they don't give a rat's a$$ about America or it's citizens.

 

[bigasscow]

When there are no (good) jobs left here, other countries will out source to the States for the cheap labour.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: bigasscow
When there are no (good) jobs left here, other countries will out source to the States for the cheap labour.

There will be a balance sooner or later as wages in this country will start to decline and we actually may enter a deflationary period (very bad according to many). If China and other countries can't "unload" their goods to the US, there may be economic worldwide recession.

Seems to me like those banking on technology for the future of US jobs may not get the desired results.

 

[Rainsford]

One of the dangers of economics is prediction. The economic world is fluid and what may appear to be a sure sign of doomsday one year ends up turning out just fine. It's easy to look at what's going on and predict our downfall, but the same was said about manufacturing, and that gave rise to the technology boom. I don't know about you, but I think that turned out just fine. And who would have seen that coming?

Now numbers of experts are important, but I think our downturn could be temporary. As the article said, off-shoring means going into those fields isn't as lucrative as it once was. But whatever the "next thing" is, people will find it and flock to that because of the higher pay. It always works that way. For me, my "next thing" was the field of computer security (as part of computer engineering, not just IT), a fast growing area with limited expertise here and even less abroad. Not only is my job relativly safe for the time being, but I was able to find a job making far above average for people with only a 4 year degree (or even a 6 year degree for that matter). Obviously that's a rare case, but I think of that as the leading edge, more and more people who wouldn't go into just plain old science and engineering in general will find some area that works for them.

Like I said, predicting economic doom and gloom is dicey at best, it's better to just wait and see what happens.

 

[Engineer]

While it may or may not be gloom and doom, it's disturbing to me that the US seems to be losing it's edge in most sectors. (Well, not sure about Biotech, etc).

Hopefully, my field in automation will be somewhat secure for some time as so many companies are trying to automate whatever possible. I would prefer automation solutions if possible as at least a few US people are working vs a whole group in another country.

Shipping costs may yet factor into outsourcing as well.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Engineer
While it may or may not be gloom and doom, it's disturbing to me that the US seems to be losing it's edge in most sectors. (Well, not sure about Biotech, etc).

Hopefully, my field in automation will be somewhat secure for some time as so many companies are trying to automate whatever possible. I would prefer automation solutions if possible as at least a few US people are working vs a whole group in another country.

Shipping costs may yet factor into outsourcing as well.

My point was that losing the lead in certain sectors doesn't tell the whole story. We don't produce the best cars any more, or any TVs at all, but we have all the big CPU companies. It's all a trade-off, I'm not sure we can say we're better off with one or the other.

Look at what you said, biotech. Where I live in Maryland, biotech is the next big thing. It's already huge, and growing at a tremedous rate. I wouldn't be surprised if that's where our future lies economically. Who can say?

One thing history has shown us is that this kind of thing is a cycle, with the US leading the way and other countries grabbing what's left after we're done with a new industry. This isn't true of every area, but it seems to be true often enough. Look at the whole general software market. It used to be that having a computer degree (or even just experience) meant you could make millions of dollars. Computer science was a new field and we were on the cutting edge. Now that it's a commodity, other people are picking it up while we (presumably) move on to the next big thing.

As usual, don't panic

 

[cquark]

The US is definitely falling behind in the sciences and engineering. According to a survey in Physical Review (the top journal family in Physics), reported in May 2004, the number of scientific papers published by West European authors had overtaken those by U.S. authors in 2003, whereas in 1983 there were three American authors for every West European. The percentage of patents granted to American scientists has been falling since 1980, from 60.2 percent of the world total to 51.8 percent. In 1989, America trained the same number of science and engineering PhDs as Britain, Germany and France put together; now the United States is 5 percent behind. The number of citations in science journals, hitherto led by American scientists, is now led by Europeans.

Unfortunately, the US is cutting the budget of the National Science Foundation and even cutting the research budget in applied areas of current interest like information security. We need to reverse those cuts if we want to see this situation change.

 

[EatSpam]

Working as servants in Chinese and Indian restaurants or polishing the rich guys' toliets.

 

[1EZduzit]

As long as we have enough cheap labor and the expertize to build big mansions, it will all work out eventually. Trust out leaders, they know what's best.

 

[Darkhawk28]

What is our future?


"Would you like fries with that?"

"Paper or plastic?"

"Your rental is due on Sunday at noon."

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Darkhawk28
What is our future?


"Would you like fries with that?"

"Paper or plastic?"

"Your rental is due on Sunday at noon."

Spoken in Spanish.

 

[gujuguy007]

Originally posted by: 1EZduzit
As long as we have enough cheap labor and the expertize to build big mansions, it will all work out eventually. Trust out leaders, they know what's best.

I would like to trust most of our leaders, but it's really hard.

Anyways, as for the changes, I can tell you that there are many students, especially minorities, in science and engineering at my university. However, the number of students in engineering is quite low. There are more pre-meds, pre-vets, pre-pharms, pre-dents, and bio-chem majors more than anything else. Being a pre-med/business student myself, there are several students enrolled in biology and chemistry classes. In my opinion, science is not declining, but engineering is here in the states. I interned with an engineering company and I cannot tell you how unstable the field is with layoffs and outsourcing. Several students simply turn away from such fields as engineering because of these circumstances and more students turn away because it's not as fun (if you call if fun) as business or communications.

It seems that more and more students would rather like to be entrepreneurs and PR specialists. I think that students are naturally adapting to the global changes as more professional jobs in the states are turning into consultancy/management jobs. I, myself, am trying to adapt. That's why I'm double majoring and hopefully I'll be able to choose a track I like. It's sad to see that the US is losing a lead in science and engineering, but I believe it's not that extreme. Things will work out and I'm glad to see that other countries are developing. The US has many strengths that allows this country to be successful. I honestly think more money should be spent on education reform. The quality of teachers, books, and classes should be improved. I think students should be encouraged to understand a broad number of subjects in depth so that they will be better able to adapt to economic changes.

 

[CanOWorms]

Countries like India and China graduate a lot of engineers and scientists, but they don't necessarily work in engineering and science fields (more so than other countries).

 

[Gigantopithecus]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Engineer

I read from many here that the US is shifting to a technology center more and more and shedding it's manufacturing base.

Those that post this mention that workers should update thier skills/education with more up to date technology (still a good idea).

But if the US loses the edge in science and engineering, then what?

It will become much cheaper to outsource all of those just as we are doing in manufacturing, don't you think?

Those that mention the updating education and skills are unaffected fat cats.

Bottom line is they don't give a rat's a$$ about America or it's citizens.

The non-traditional students I teach are laughing all the way to the bank at the absurdity of what you're saying.

 

[filterxg]

I've been reading an excellent book about it, "The World is Flat" by thomas friedman. Anyway, yes the US is losing its lead.

1) We just don't have the numbers. 300M americans versus 1B+ Indians and Chinese. Kind of tuff when you are one in a million means there are 1300 of you in your own country.
2) We aren't as ambitious. Individual productivity is double or triple what an average american produces. We grew up fat and wealthy, when these people grew up poor. They are like our 1930's generation, which became the "greatest generation" for everything from war, to scientific advancement, to pure ambition and work ethic.
3) Our education system isn't as good. We are far behind in science and math until grad school, which gets helped thanks to the imports. We produce too many lawyers and business people, too few engineers, mathmaticians and sciencists. Plus our spending in advanced research has flattened, due to fiscal constraints.

Now I should say it was never an issue of losing our lead, more like when. As we globalize the avg GDP/person should equalize among developed countries. But at this rate we have maybe 30 years left at the top.

 

[boredhokie]

I think with the further dismantling of social service in the name of privatization, and our new emerging Jesus-Based economy and government, this country is really turning a corner. And soon, thanks to CAFTA, our numerous non-unionized American manufacturing workers will have the chance to compete with Columbian child slave labor. Talk about some exciting competition!

 

[charrison]

WEll our public educaiton system is broken in many places and most people seem ok with letting it continue to rot as we repeat the same failed policies...

 

[filterxg]

Originally posted by: boredhokie
I think with the further dismantling of social service in the name of privatization, and our new emerging Jesus-Based economy and government, this country is really turning a corner. And soon, thanks to CAFTA, our numerous non-unionized American manufacturing workers will have the chance to compete with Columbian child slave labor. Talk about some exciting competition!

Karl Marx wrote that capitalism is flawed because competition will continually drive down the earnings and condition of the worker. Well his ideas were proven wrong on a small scale by the US. Because eventually the workers become consumers. This will happen around the world. What you call "slave labour" is acutally a very good salary over there. They will have increasing ability to buy stuff, and then the it continues to grow.

Also there isn't a set number of jobs in the world. Its not that anyone is "stealing" our jobs. As long as people keep learning, keep innovating there is an unlimited number of jobs. Wealth is constantly being created.

 

[filterxg]

Originally posted by: charrison
WEll our public educaiton system is broken in many places and most people seem ok with letting it continue to rot as we repeat the same failed policies...

Fixing the education system isn't about money (well not directly anyway). It'd be nice having better qualified teachers, but other countries do more with less. Its about getting the kids interested in doing work. Math and Science are hard, much harder than business or law. Kids today don't have the patience or ambition for it. We need to figure out how to change that, and I know its not hiring better teachers.

 

[boredhokie]

Originally posted by: filterxg

Originally posted by: boredhokie
I think with the further dismantling of social service in the name of privatization, and our new emerging Jesus-Based economy and government, this country is really turning a corner. And soon, thanks to CAFTA, our numerous non-unionized American manufacturing workers will have the chance to compete with Columbian child slave labor. Talk about some exciting competition!

Karl Marx wrote that capitalism is flawed because competition will continually drive down the earnings and condition of the worker. Well his ideas were proven wrong on a small scale by the US. Because eventually the workers become consumers. This will happen around the world. What you call "slave labour" is acutally a very good salary over there. They will have increasing ability to buy stuff, and then the it continues to grow.

Also there isn't a set number of jobs in the world. Its not that anyone is "stealing" our jobs. As long as people keep learning, keep innovating there is an unlimited number of jobs. Wealth is constantly being created.

Absolutely. By letting all the manufacturing jobs go to countries that don't mind if children work in coal mines (they'll be called Freedom Mines) or get mangled in industrial equipment, we're freeing our plucky US citizens to become self employed entrepeneurs! Also, by allowing corporations to avoid taxes by incorporating in Barbados, and allowing them to move manufacturing jobs to South America, exec's multi-million dollar bonuses will "trickle down" and create exciting new jobs for America's future! Who DOESN'T want to scrub toilets on an exciting luxury yacht? Part time, though, of course, Health care is putting corporate shareholders in the poor house.

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: Engineer
While it may or may not be gloom and doom, it's disturbing to me that the US seems to be losing it's edge in most sectors. (Well, not sure about Biotech, etc).

Hopefully, my field in automation will be somewhat secure for some time as so many companies are trying to automate whatever possible. I would prefer automation solutions if possible as at least a few US people are working vs a whole group in another country.

Shipping costs may yet factor into outsourcing as well.

If this is at all true, the US business/policy leaders have no one to blame but themselves. Unemployment rate for EEs at the bottom of the last downturn was substantially worse than population wide unemployment. No doubt lots of people got discouraged left the field. Incoming students saw the carnage and went to other fields.

Business/policy leaders in the US are hypocrites, they bitch that there aren't enough science/engineering people but then every time there is a economic downturn engineers get slaughtered. 15 years ago it was aerospace, 2 years ago it was computer. Seriously, cry me a f*cking river. :roll:

I'm a engineer myself but seeing how quickly the cuts come when times get rough, I don't want to stay in this profession beyond a couple years. One of these days, engineers are going to get jerked around enough to unionize, then US policy leaders will really have something to bitch about.

 

[Krk3561]

We should have never let our dominance on the Cotton Gin go! If we kept up our dominance in Cotton Gins we would be much better off today!

 

[filterxg]

Originally posted by: boredhokie

Originally posted by: filterxg

Originally posted by: boredhokie
I think with the further dismantling of social service in the name of privatization, and our new emerging Jesus-Based economy and government, this country is really turning a corner. And soon, thanks to CAFTA, our numerous non-unionized American manufacturing workers will have the chance to compete with Columbian child slave labor. Talk about some exciting competition!

Karl Marx wrote that capitalism is flawed because competition will continually drive down the earnings and condition of the worker. Well his ideas were proven wrong on a small scale by the US. Because eventually the workers become consumers. This will happen around the world. What you call "slave labour" is acutally a very good salary over there. They will have increasing ability to buy stuff, and then the it continues to grow.

Also there isn't a set number of jobs in the world. Its not that anyone is "stealing" our jobs. As long as people keep learning, keep innovating there is an unlimited number of jobs. Wealth is constantly being created.

Absolutely. By letting all the manufacturing jobs go to countries that don't mind if children work in coal mines (they'll be called Freedom Mines) or get mangled in industrial equipment, we're freeing our plucky US citizens to become self employed entrepeneurs! Also, by allowing corporations to avoid taxes by incorporating in Barbados, and allowing them to move manufacturing jobs to South America, exec's multi-million dollar bonuses will "trickle down" and create exciting new jobs for America's future! Who DOESN'T want to scrub toilets on an exciting luxury yacht? Part time, though, of course, Health care is putting corporate shareholders in the poor house.

We started with child labor, and complete neglegence to worker conditions. But with 20-30 years, workers gained value and thus leverage. As they gain more permanent investments we just got to keep insisting that they improve. To create investment in other countries the cost of doing business has to be much lower than it is here. The lower the cost of doing business, then the more investment. As example of what not to do look at South Africa. They raised standards too quickly and investors are fleeing that country.

Part of our selfishness is that we want all the new investment to stay here in the US. Though we often lose sight of it, we need to create investment in other countries. It'll create a healthier world when fewer and fewer people are hungry and dependent on aid (which is never enough).

 

[Riprorin]

Originally posted by: cquark
The US is definitely falling behind in the sciences and engineering. According to a survey in Physical Review (the top journal family in Physics), reported in May 2004, the number of scientific papers published by West European authors had overtaken those by U.S. authors in 2003, whereas in 1983 there were three American authors for every West European. The percentage of patents granted to American scientists has been falling since 1980, from 60.2 percent of the world total to 51.8 percent. In 1989, America trained the same number of science and engineering PhDs as Britain, Germany and France put together; now the United States is 5 percent behind. The number of citations in science journals, hitherto led by American scientists, is now led by Europeans.

Unfortunately, the US is cutting the budget of the National Science Foundation and even cutting the research budget in applied areas of current interest like information security. We need to reverse those cuts if we want to see this situation change.

I wouldn't worry about Europe since it's going to be Islamic before the end of the century.