Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: halik
Long term this trend is sure to reverse, given our budget and CA deficits, but hey right now we're doing better than europe!
I don't think you'll see a huge fall relative to most major currencies. Why? Because everybody is in the same boat. The only reason why the dollar fell as fast as it did was because investors thought the US was delinked from the world economically, that the Fed was taking unilateral actions that no other major central bank would have to take, and that was hurting the dollar.
However, once reality set in that the US is *NOT* delinked from the world, that this problem is one of ALL major countries, not just directly through US investments, but also that the credit spree went on in every country (Canada had their own ABCP problem stemming from extendable ABCP, Spain with their own housing bubble, Germany, France, England, Australia, Italy...etc).
The only currency to really strengthen against the dollar was the Yen, but only that because the unwinding of the carry trade.
After people realized that every major CB would take the same actions as the Fed, there was a rationalization. Europe went into recession faster and deeper and will probably take many more years to get out of it than the US. The CAD went down so quickly because oil has dropped in price, making the alberta sands less attractive, not to mention that the rest of Canada's economy is natural resource driven, all of which is dropping in demand as the world enters recession.
Everybody has to keep in mind that currency valuation is a relative valuation, a low tide will lower all boats.
Personally, I love the fools who thought gold would keep going higher. It's such a stupid assumption that I am sure gold traders are loving all of the fools. You can't eat gold, you can't drink gold, you can't pay your car loan in gold. Gold was already over-valued during the commodity bubble, to think it'd keep going higher, outside of any rationalized demand driven price, is just stupid.
Same thing with oil.
Where are the RPBs now? Isn't monetary "inflation" supposed to be sinking the dollar, driving massive inflation, driving demand for commodities, and leading us into Mad Max Beyond Thunderdrome?
RPB knowledge of real-world economics is about as laughable as Palins knowledge of international diplomacy. Just because they can read blogs, and she can see Russia, doesn't mean jack shit when it comes down to reality.