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US Bombers Sent to Guam Following Spy Plane Incident with North Korea

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Originally posted by: sean2002
Originally posted by: Dacalo
Originally posted by: Grasshopper27
President George W. Bush on Monday raised the possibility of using military force against North Korea, if diplomatic efforts to halt Pyongyang's nuclear development program fail.
That is the quote that counts, and it shows that Bush will start talking seriouslly about force after Iraq has been knocked over...

It's not just about Iraq and not just about oil...

: ) Hopper

And Bush expects China to sit on their ass?

If US attacks NK, bye bye Taiwan

Even worse, China gets involved in the conflict

Attacking NK is not very realistic



China would do nothing, China does not want to be isolated from the rest of the world like NK.

These guys have nukes! A lot of lives would be "speculated" on by military action. Best not to get nito a position where the US feels forced to attack NK. Best to convince China to get tough with its cordial "friend".

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Fencer128
Has there ever been an open war between 2 members of the nuke club? I'm REALLY hoping he's trying to put pressure on NK rather than stating a threat he'll be willing to carry out.

Andy
No, there hasn't...

This is why Iraq is first, the military is currently running these programs at full speed to get the weapon systems up and running as quickly as possible.

1. The Airborne Laser
2. THADD (Theater High-Altitude Area Defense)
3. Ground Based Interceptor (part 1 of the National Missile Defense system)

The laser was installed in the modified 747-400F last month and tests will be done in the following months. That combined with the first prototype THADD systems will be deployed to the East Asian Theater later this year (the first missiles actually were delivered to Japan in December, but they aren't operational yet). The Ground Intercepters will be installed in early 2004 which is when I'd expect we'd go to war with North Korea if we have to.

The combition of those three systems should be able to intercept and shoot down any nuclear ballistic missiles N. Korea launches in such a war.

: ) Hopper
 
Originally posted by: Piano Man
I like how the US is calling this a "reckless incident." If Iraq shadowed one of our spy planes, they would have called it an act of war.

Hmm Iraq shot down one of our spy places and it was not considered an act of war.
rolleye.gif
 
Originally posted by: Grasshopper27
Originally posted by: Fencer128
Has there ever been an open war between 2 members of the nuke club? I'm REALLY hoping he's trying to put pressure on NK rather than stating a threat he'll be willing to carry out.

Andy
No, there hasn't...

This is why Iraq is first, the military is currently running these programs at full speed to get the weapon systems up and running as quickly as possible.

1. The Airborne Laser
2. THADD (Theater High-Altitude Area Defense)
3. Ground Based Interceptor (part 1 of the National Missile Defense system)

The laser was installed in the modified 747-400F last month and tests will be done in the following months. That combined with the first prototype THADD systems will be deployed to the East Asian Theater later this year (the first missiles actually were delivered to Japan in December, but they aren't operational yet). The Ground Intercepters will be installed in early 2004 which is when I'd expect we'd go to war with North Korea if we have to.

The combination of those three systems should be able to intercept and shoot down any nuclear ballistic missiles N. Korea launches in such a war.

: ) Hopper

I'm not sure you want to get into a position where you want to test those systems. The airbourne laser has a long pedigree that only now *may* be anywhere near working (I'm a laser physicist). Reliable defense projects usually take decades - I'm not sure how long 2 and 3 have behind them. Anyway - my point of view is that we should not allow ourselves to be put in such a position where the US feels it must act. We are certainly not there now and there is no good reason to be there after Iraq has gone the way it seems to be heading.

If I was a religious man - I'd be praying right now that the above scenario doesn't play out.

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Fencer128
I'm not sure you want to get into a position where you want to test those systems. The airbourne laser has a long pedigree that only now *may* be anywhere near working (I'm a laser physicist).
The laser has been in development for 20+ years.

The difference today is computer power. The laser just couldn't destroy targets far away because it difuses too quickly in the air. No problem, have hundreds of computer controled mini-mirrors adjusted a thousand times a second to "correct" the beam and poof, you have a laser that can hit a target 100 miles away and blow it up.

They have already done ground tests and destroyed missiles launched dozens of miles away, it will work even better at 40,000ft with 2/3 less air in the way.

Reliable defense projects usually take decades - I'm not sure how long 2 and 3 have behind them.
THADD was in development during the first gulf war, it is indeed mature. The ground based intercepters are the big wild card. They still don't really work right and shouldn't be counted on. Still, that being said, no reason not to give them a try if it all fails.

Anyway - my point of view is that we should not allow ourselves to be put in such a position where the US feels it must act. We are certainly not there now and there is no good reason to be there after Iraq has gone the way it seems to be heading.
We cannot allow North Korea to keep nuclear weapons. Force will probably be required to remove them.

: ) Hopper
 
I understand what your saying about the airbourne laser - but unless its battle tested - I think its still a huge bet (I've seen some of the test footage and it is indeed impressive in this regard).

We cannot allow North Korea to keep nuclear weapons. Force will probably be required to remove them.

If you are worried about the potential for a nuclear incident - you'd be better off concentrating on India/Pakistan relations. That IS a real potential flashpoint - friendly governments or not. They really don't get on! (another stupid mistake when us brits made a botch job of their independance).

With respect to NK - Other avenues must be found - particularly through neutral or otherwise "friendly" parties (such as China). IMHO this is not *an* option - it is the *only* real option.

Andy
 
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: Carbonyl
Hey hopper whats a laser going to do against a chrome missle?

How much energy will chrome absorb vs reflect?

Trust me - with the intensities we're talking about, the projectile will rapidly heat up - causing the air inside to expand and rapid mechanical failure. Reflection won't be a problem (no one yet makes missiles out of coated optical quality glass.)

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Fencer128
I understand what your saying about the airbourne laser - but unless its battle tested - I think its still a huge bet (I've seen some of the test footage and it is indeed impressive in this regard).
You are correct. I'm not a fool, and I would never want to bet the farm on an unproven weapon system like that.

That is why I want all three systems deployed (in addition to the PAC-3 Patriot for the defense of S. Korea) to improve the chances.

In fact, I wouldn't mind if airbursted nukes were used to intercept the missiles, messy, but not really all that damaging to the planet because few, if any ground debris would be contaimainted.

If you are worried about the potential for a nuclear incident - you'd be better off concentrating on India/Pakistan relations. That IS a real potential flashpoint - friendly governments or not. They really don't get on! (another stupid mistake when us brits made a botch job of their independance).
I agree, both India and Pakistan need to give up their nukes, but I'm not sure that is going to happen.

India I'm not worried about, Pakistan I am...

With respect to NK - Other avenues must be found - particularly through neutral or otherwise "friendly" parties (such as China). IMHO this is not an option - it is the only real option.
I believe it is possible to disarm North Korea by force. Then again, when your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

So don't think I'm not aware of the problems with that idea either...

: ) Hopper
 
Originally posted by: Dacalo
Originally posted by: Grasshopper27
President George W. Bush on Monday raised the possibility of using military force against North Korea, if diplomatic efforts to halt Pyongyang's nuclear development program fail.
That is the quote that counts, and it shows that Bush will start talking seriouslly about force after Iraq has been knocked over...

It's not just about Iraq and not just about oil...

: ) Hopper

And Bush expects China to sit on their ass?

If US attacks NK, bye bye Taiwan

Even worse, China gets involved in the conflict

Attacking NK is not very realistic

Oh please. Unlike the first Korean war China is represented on the world stage and they have a LOT to lose by getting involved in anything that could occur. They want NK to shutup just like the rest of the world. China would never invade Taiwan unless Taiwan declares independence, they want the capital stored on the island whole, an invasion would destroy the value. Any war that starts in Korea will be started by NK, make no mistake about that.
 
Originally posted by: Fencer128
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: Carbonyl
Hey hopper whats a laser going to do against a chrome missle?

How much energy will chrome absorb vs reflect?

Trust me - with the intensities we're talking about, the projectile will rapidly heat up - causing the air inside to expand and rapid mechanical failure. Reflection won't be a problem (no one yet makes missiles out of coated optical quality glass.)

Andy

You sure about that? I don't know about you but since I Know the wavelenghs used I'd design my metal skin on my missles with the same dielectric materials with alternating high and low indices of refraction used as mirrors inside the lasers themselves. NO? (
 
Originally posted by: Carbonyl
You sure about that? I don't know about you but since I Know the wavelenghs used I'd design my metal skin on my missles with the same dielectric materials with alternating high and low indices of refraction used as mirrors inside the lasers themselves. NO? (
The quality of the surface material required on the missile far exceeds what would survive a launch.

The laser is extremely powerful and the heat and energy would simply burn through any reflective surface that wasn't pollished mirror perfect.

They have shown video of large flat mirrors being destroyed on the Discovery Channel, they have obviously tested for this.

: ) Hopper
 
You sure about that? I don't know about you but since I Know the wavelenghs used I'd design my metal skin on my missles with the same dielectric materials with alternating high and low indices of refraction used as mirrors inside the lasers themselves. NO? (

firstly, (I haven't checked the figures recently) but I guess that the laser used on the aircraft to "kill" is probably going to deliver v. large amounts of power (MW or above average power I'd guess). That means that even if you only had a couple of % absorption - as I'd guess you at least do if your substrate were say chrome rather than fused silica - you will still be absorbing kW of power - easily enough to cause rapid heating.

Now, if this things travelling rapidly through the atmosphere, friction would (again I'm guessing a bit here) degrade the bragg reflection coatings somewhat. This would also lead to high absorption.

Finally, bragg stack reflectivity is angle dependant. Unless the missile and the beam are coincident at the right angle, the 99.999% reflectivity you'd be looking for would agian be severely degraded.

That's why I think coated missiles aren't going to work.

Andy
 
This program is another waste of tax payers money. Not only do you have to worry about simple counter measures like the chrome missle example, you better hope it's not raining the day a lauch takes place and you can get a lumbering 747 which is an easy target close enough to have the intensity you describe. Seems Reagan had it right with missle defense at the missles slow moving apex back in 84' it's really the only way to "catch" a ICBM and destroy it. In the atmosphere these things are pushing mach 25. LOL ya uh huh.
 
Originally posted by: Carbonyl
This program is another waste of tax payers money. Not only do you have to worry about simple counter measures like the chrome missle example, you better hope it's not raining the day a lauch takes place and you can get a lumbering 747 which is an easy target close enough to have the intensity you describe. Seems Reagan had it right with missle defense at the missles slow moving apex back in 84' it's really the only way to "catch" a ICBM and destroy it. In the atmosphere these things are pushing mach 25. LOL ya uh huh.

If they don't shoot down the missile when its above the cloud base - and it's raining - then I can't see the adaptive optics working well enough for a kill. Good point. Maybe this has already been tried? But I know that rain would really muck things up even more than the atmosphere already does.

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Carbonyl
This program is another waste of tax payers money. Not only do you have to worry about simple counter measures like the chrome missle example, you better hope it's not raining the day a lauch takes place and you can get a lumbering 747 which is an easy target close enough to have the intensity you describe. Seems Reagan had it right with missle defense at the missles slow moving apex back in 84' it's really the only way to "catch" a ICBM and destroy it. In the atmosphere these things are pushing mach 25. LOL ya uh huh.
Rain? You DO know that rain is not much of an issue at 40,000ft, right? 🙂

This laser has a range of over 100 miles, it will be protected and defended by fighters, and it will be able to hit everything from ICBMs to SCUD missiles.

: ) Hopper
 
Originally posted by: Grasshopper27
Originally posted by: Carbonyl
This program is another waste of tax payers money. Not only do you have to worry about simple counter measures like the chrome missle example, you better hope it's not raining the day a lauch takes place and you can get a lumbering 747 which is an easy target close enough to have the intensity you describe. Seems Reagan had it right with missle defense at the missles slow moving apex back in 84' it's really the only way to "catch" a ICBM and destroy it. In the atmosphere these things are pushing mach 25. LOL ya uh huh.
Rain? You DO know that rain is not much of an issue at 40,000ft, right? 🙂

This laser has a range of over 100 miles, it will be protected and defended by fighters, and it will be able to hit everything from ICBMs to SCUD missiles.

: ) Hopper

IT currently has a long way to go. 1/2 the components have been delivered and it already weighs too much.

 
Its not due for a real test until 2004. And I think we know how well these military projects stick to schedule *cough* *b1 bomber* *cough* 😉

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Grasshopper27
Originally posted by: Carbonyl
This program is another waste of tax payers money. Not only do you have to worry about simple counter measures like the chrome missle example, you better hope it's not raining the day a lauch takes place and you can get a lumbering 747 which is an easy target close enough to have the intensity you describe. Seems Reagan had it right with missle defense at the missles slow moving apex back in 84' it's really the only way to "catch" a ICBM and destroy it. In the atmosphere these things are pushing mach 25. LOL ya uh huh.
Rain? You DO know that rain is not much of an issue at 40,000ft, right? 🙂

This laser has a range of over 100 miles, it will be protected and defended by fighters, and it will be able to hit everything from ICBMs to SCUD missiles.

: ) Hopper


That's fine if you want to kill em' after burn out, however since most ICBMS are altemeter detonated you still have a problem here. Most missles only have a 75-90 second burn then it's all gravity🙂 The idea is to get them under power so they fall straight back down. And 100 miles yea right. In practice the ABL?s range will be considerably shorter than this maximum because the beam intensity drops with distance and atmospherc effects. And the spot won't be enough to melt a model aeroplane at those distances. Then we get into the easily diffraction countermeasuers I mentioned earlier.
 
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