Updated UHC Costs from CBO

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Mursilis

Diamond Member
Mar 11, 2001
7,756
11
81
Originally posted by: Carmen813
It's interesting to me that most of you were so willing to treat the $1.6 trillion over 10 years as a solid, well founded number, and then treating this number as if it is horribly inaccurate. Especially when the first number was created using a partially written plan.

I don't remember ever saying I believed that number either. Most gov't estimates end up being wildly wrong anyway.
 

Carmen813

Diamond Member
May 18, 2007
3,189
0
76
Originally posted by: DLeRium
Originally posted by: Carmen813
http://www.google.com/hostedne...-aGcYE_ZHW-ywD99612R00

This is the plan being put forth by Kennedy, apparently the same one that was criticized a few weeks ago for costing $1.6 trillion and only covering 1/3 of uninsured Americans.


Not sure what commentary I can add, once the plan is more fully described this could be a good option for us. It contains a public option, which I like, but Conservatives hate, and a yearly fee on employers that do not cover insurance. This yearly fee would still be much less than the cost of providing employer based insurance, and small businesses (<25) would be exempt.

The way the bill is written also prevents employers from dropping currently covered employees.

Looks like some progress is being made, though I imagine the naysayers will be out in full force in this thread soon enough.

Additionally, the revised proposal calls for a $750 annual fee on employers for each full-time worker not offered coverage through their job. The fee would be set at $375 for part-time workers. Companies with fewer than 25 employees would be exempt. The fee was forecast to generate $52 billion over 10 years, money the government would use to help provide subsidies to those who cannot afford insurance.

Is that even a hefty fee? Employers are charged like $12k per employee to provide private health care. Now the alternative is a slap on the wrist of $750? I'm not exactly for mandates, but if you want to have a mandate shouldn't you put some teeth on that thing to make sure it generates some serious revenue?

Or another way to look at it is just luring the employers out of the private health sector and forcing everyone to look for alternatives... like the public plan.

Edit: My initial analysis. 1/3 of Americans were not insured. The original plan insured 1/3 of the 1/3 which means 1/9th of new Americans will get insured meaning total insured goes from 2/3 to 2/3 + 1/9 which is 7/9. Roughly 78% coverage. Now 97% coverage means that 3% arenot covered. 3% out of the 33% uninsured. So the new insurance plan covers 9/10 of the uninsured.

We moved from covering 1/3 of the uninsured to 9/10 of the uninsured. Almost 3x. So now by expanding coverage by 3x and having roughly the same price tag, what did we do? Find a slick deal? Bing cashback? Stackable coupons? Cut coverage? Cut quality? Shift the costs back to the consumer? How did we manage to cover 3x as many people all of a sudden?

Without really do any investigation, my initial thought would be that they finished writing the bill. The earlier numbers were from a preliminary bill that I believe involved eliminating private insurance entirely. This version keeps that intact and is more in line with what Obama campaigned on.
 

Carmen813

Diamond Member
May 18, 2007
3,189
0
76
Originally posted by: Mursilis
Originally posted by: Carmen813
It's interesting to me that most of you were so willing to treat the $1.6 trillion over 10 years as a solid, well founded number, and then treating this number as if it is horribly inaccurate. Especially when the first number was created using a partially written plan.

I don't remember ever saying I believed that number either. Most gov't estimates end up being wildly wrong anyway.

I didn't call you out specifically, but there were plenty who treated that number as gold.
 

Mursilis

Diamond Member
Mar 11, 2001
7,756
11
81
Originally posted by: Carmen813
Originally posted by: Mursilis
Originally posted by: Carmen813
It's interesting to me that most of you were so willing to treat the $1.6 trillion over 10 years as a solid, well founded number, and then treating this number as if it is horribly inaccurate. Especially when the first number was created using a partially written plan.

I don't remember ever saying I believed that number either. Most gov't estimates end up being wildly wrong anyway.

I didn't call you out specifically, but there were plenty who treated that number as gold.

Then they would be foolish.
 
Feb 19, 2001
20,155
23
81
Originally posted by: senseamp
Originally posted by: Jeffg010
Originally posted by: senseamp
LOL, $750 per year is a big pay cut for you? You must be scraping the bottom of the barrel pretty hard.

Laugh it off fool I'd rather keep my money then give it away.

You give it away anyways. The uninsured are a burden on the overall economy, especially when they get treatment at the ER.

Worst argument ever. You pay for the poor anyway, why not pay more? I pay for a lot of things that go out to the public, this doesn't mean there's a reason to make me pay more. You seem to think that the solution to every problem in this nation is to tax us more. CA is bankrupt because we don't pay enough property taxes. Increase taxes! UHC? Bleh, just tax us more!

I'm glad at least you support a method to get the funds to support your outrageous spending plans. However your reasoning that you pay for a bit of it now and you might as well just pay more is stupid.
 

sactoking

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2007
7,649
2,925
136
Originally posted by: Carmen813
If you do not see a direct amount coming out of your paycheck, than I would suspect you do not actually have insurance.

My employer pays for my insurance and it's not on my paystub. I most definitely have insurance. Just FYI, be careful with 'absolute' statements.
 

Mursilis

Diamond Member
Mar 11, 2001
7,756
11
81
Originally posted by: villageidiot111
Iraq War = 12billion per month
Health Care Plan = 5Billion per month

Hey, so let's return the Iraq War, and get our money back! Does anyone still have the receipt!?!?

:roll:
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
Originally posted by: DLeRium
Originally posted by: senseamp
Originally posted by: Jeffg010
Originally posted by: senseamp
LOL, $750 per year is a big pay cut for you? You must be scraping the bottom of the barrel pretty hard.

Laugh it off fool I'd rather keep my money then give it away.

You give it away anyways. The uninsured are a burden on the overall economy, especially when they get treatment at the ER.

Worst argument ever. You pay for the poor anyway, why not pay more? I pay for a lot of things that go out to the public, this doesn't mean there's a reason to make me pay more. You seem to think that the solution to every problem in this nation is to tax us more. CA is bankrupt because we don't pay enough property taxes. Increase taxes! UHC? Bleh, just tax us more!

I'm glad at least you support a method to get the funds to support your outrageous spending plans. However your reasoning that you pay for a bit of it now and you might as well just pay more is stupid.

Treating the poor at doctor offices earlier instead of ER later is paying less, not more.
Outrageous is what we have now, this reform is a must.
 

Carmen813

Diamond Member
May 18, 2007
3,189
0
76
Originally posted by: sactoking
Originally posted by: Carmen813
If you do not see a direct amount coming out of your paycheck, than I would suspect you do not actually have insurance.

My employer pays for my insurance and it's not on my paystub. I most definitely have insurance. Just FYI, be careful with 'absolute' statements.

If you are not seeing a direct amount deducted from your paycheck, then that is because your employer has already factored that into your compensation. In other words, they are paying you less so that they can provide you with health insurance. Just because the cost is hidden to you does not mean you pay nothing.
 

cubeless

Diamond Member
Sep 17, 2001
4,295
1
81
so a company starting now with , 25 employees doesn't pay in, doesn't have private healthcare insurance; company grows beyond 25 and now only has to pay $750 a year and lets their emps go on public plan?

sounds like we'll have the same situation in a few years as the automakers are going through... older companies won't be able to compete... they'll do bankruptcy and all emps will be on public health plan...

i surrender... just do the thing and make everybody on the public plan... this is turning into the pig that's too tasty to eat all at once... or more like chinese water torture...
 

Carmen813

Diamond Member
May 18, 2007
3,189
0
76
Originally posted by: cubeless
so a company starting now with , 25 employees doesn't pay in, doesn't have private healthcare insurance; company grows beyond 25 and now only has to pay $750 a year and lets their emps go on public plan?

sounds like we'll have the same situation in a few years as the automakers are going through... older companies won't be able to compete... they'll do bankruptcy and all emps will be on public health plan...

i surrender... just do the thing and make everybody on the public plan... this is turning into the pig that's too tasty to eat all at once... or more like chinese water torture...

That's the same problem I envisioned with this plan, but it seems so obvious that I would sincerely hope it's already been thought of.

This particular bill is supposedly complete (remember this is one of five Senate bills), so hopefully we will have the entire legislation to look at shortly.
 

tk149

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2002
7,253
1
0
I question any budgetary number the government comes up with. Especially any program that doesn't have an automatic termination date. How much was Medicare supposed to cost?

UHC is, plain and simple, a redistribution of wealth. Some of us are okay with that and some of us (including me) are not. The government may be charging businesses more money, but be assured that companies will pass that cost on to their employees and the consumer. This is yet another tax on everybody.

EDIT: I wonder if they'll add an extra 400 pages to the bill two hours before they vote on it?




 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,948
126
Originally posted by: Mursilis
Originally posted by: villageidiot111
Iraq War = 12billion per month
Health Care Plan = 5Billion per month

Hey, so let's return the Iraq War, and get our money back! Does anyone still have the receipt!?!?

:roll:

halliburton has the receipt.
 

halik

Lifer
Oct 10, 2000
25,696
1
81
The economics of charging employers that do provide health care to pay for people that don't have health care just reeks of FAIL to me. You're in essence putting a disincentive on providing healthcare to your employees.

Also anyone that believes employers won't pass good chunk of the $750/year onto the employees have never taken a single econ class.


EdIt: is the $750 only for full time employees that don't get health care? If so, that would make a lot more sense.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
So this new proposal will cost less than half of the previous, yet cover 3 times as many people?

That's hard to accept (and if true rather frightning considering about a week they were proposing a far more expensive plan cover only a fraction of the uninsured).

The article explains the cost saving:

The letter indicated the cost and coverage improvements resulted from two changes. The first calls for a government-run health insurance option to compete with private coverage plans, an option that has drawn intense opposition from Republicans.

Ummm. I'm pretty sure the last plan also called for a government option to compete with private insurers - explanation is decidely unsatisfactory.

This is apparently the second change resulting in the cost reduction:

{q]Additionally, the revised proposal calls for a $750 annual fee on employers for each full-time worker not offered coverage through their job. The fee would be set at $375 for part-time workers. Companies with fewer than 25 employees would be exempt. The fee was forecast to generate $52 billion over 10 years, money the government would use to help provide subsidies to those who cannot afford insurance.
[/quote]

$52 billion saving over 10 years? That hardly explains this cost reduction at all - insufficient explanation.

Then I noticed this at the bottom of the article:

In their letter, Kennedy and Dodd said the Congressional Budget Office "has carefully reviewed our complete bill, and we are pleased to report that CBO has scored it at $611.4 billion over 10 years, with the new coverage provisions scored at $597 billion

That looks to me be a total of $1.2 trillion?

Would be nice if the new proposal actualy covers all the uninsured for a fraction of the cost, but because of the above I'm sceptical. And I'm somewhat wary that upon finding the cost of the 'old' proposal was shockingly high and politically unpalatable, they, with sleight of hand, decided to break it into different pieces with individually smaller estimates yet in aggregate still the same old amount.

Fern
 
Feb 19, 2001
20,155
23
81
Originally posted by: Carmen813
Originally posted by: sactoking
Originally posted by: Carmen813
If you do not see a direct amount coming out of your paycheck, than I would suspect you do not actually have insurance.

My employer pays for my insurance and it's not on my paystub. I most definitely have insurance. Just FYI, be careful with 'absolute' statements.

If you are not seeing a direct amount deducted from your paycheck, then that is because your employer has already factored that into your compensation. In other words, they are paying you less so that they can provide you with health insurance. Just because the cost is hidden to you does not mean you pay nothing.

I believe studies have shown that employer-provided healthcare is paid for by salary. I'm not sure what you are referring to about the paycheck, but are you referring to the premium? Some employers pay for say 100% of the premium so you'll never see the figure on your paycheck, but I'm on a 90/10 plan so yes I do see deductions on my plan. Overall, we're all paying for it by having lower salaries. If employers did not have to mess with insurance we'd all have higher salaries.
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
91
Do you really trust any cost estimate from the USA Govt?

I am not that trusting. Why not pick a state and test it just in one state. No need for an all or nothing attemt at getting the cost estimate correct the first time. Any large company would test this in a small control group or a few geographic areas before they wanted to roll out this on such a large scale. If we do not go slowly the govt will kill us all.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
This should be a done deal by the end of the summer. Bravo on Obama and the Dems finally getting serious about health care reform.
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
Originally posted by: piasabird
Do you really trust any cost estimate from the USA Govt?

I am not that trusting. Why not pick a state and test it just in one state. No need for an all or nothing attemt at getting the cost estimate correct the first time. Any large company would test this in a small control group or a few geographic areas before they wanted to roll out this on such a large scale. If we do not go slowly the govt will kill us all.

Off your paranoia meds?
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
Originally posted by: DLeRium
Originally posted by: Carmen813
Originally posted by: sactoking
Originally posted by: Carmen813
If you do not see a direct amount coming out of your paycheck, than I would suspect you do not actually have insurance.

My employer pays for my insurance and it's not on my paystub. I most definitely have insurance. Just FYI, be careful with 'absolute' statements.

If you are not seeing a direct amount deducted from your paycheck, then that is because your employer has already factored that into your compensation. In other words, they are paying you less so that they can provide you with health insurance. Just because the cost is hidden to you does not mean you pay nothing.

I believe studies have shown that employer-provided healthcare is paid for by salary. I'm not sure what you are referring to about the paycheck, but are you referring to the premium? Some employers pay for say 100% of the premium so you'll never see the figure on your paycheck, but I'm on a 90/10 plan so yes I do see deductions on my plan. Overall, we're all paying for it by having lower salaries. If employers did not have to mess with insurance we'd all have higher salaries.

1. You're not going to see it 'coming out of your' paycheck for the simply reason it is a non-taxable fringe benefit.

2. Most employers provide year-end annual statements that show the total 'compensation' you receive, the amount they pay for your insurance is indicated here and added to your salary to provide you a total amount of compensation you are receiving.

3. HI costs for employees is most definately considered an employee cost, and in that way they are paying you 'less' in cash salary. So yes, in a way you are paying for it. The question remains though if the employer were freed from paying your HI would they actually boost your 'take-home' pay.

Fern
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,268
126
Wait. Medicaid is over 320 billion a year and some actually believes it would only cost 150 billion for everyone much less 60 billion?

Pull the other one
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,582
12
76
If they can really make it happen for $60B a year, go for it. That's small potatoes in the scheme of things. And I'm sure most of you are familiar with my stance on this sort of thing.

Anything more than $100B a year is unacceptable though. Seriously, that's the line in my mind between having health care for everyone, and me standing outside an emergency room telling people without insurance to FOAD.
 

Carmen813

Diamond Member
May 18, 2007
3,189
0
76
Originally posted by: halik
The economics of charging employers that do provide health care to pay for people that don't have health care just reeks of FAIL to me. You're in essence putting a disincentive on providing healthcare to your employees.

Also anyone that believes employers won't pass good chunk of the $750/year onto the employees have never taken a single econ class.


EdIt: is the $750 only for full time employees that don't get health care? If so, that would make a lot more sense.

Yes, only for full-time (or part-time at $375) employees that do NOT get healthcare from their employer.

As for what you linked Ferm, I caught that too, and I'm honestly not sure what that line means. The way I read it was that $597 billion would be going towards covering the uninsured, and the other $20 billion or so going towards subsidies.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,054
55,548
136
Originally posted by: Fern
So this new proposal will cost less than half of the previous, yet cover 3 times as many people?

That's hard to accept (and if true rather frightning considering about a week they were proposing a far more expensive plan cover only a fraction of the uninsured).

The article explains the cost saving:

The letter indicated the cost and coverage improvements resulted from two changes. The first calls for a government-run health insurance option to compete with private coverage plans, an option that has drawn intense opposition from Republicans.

Ummm. I'm pretty sure the last plan also called for a government option to compete with private insurers - explanation is decidely unsatisfactory.

This is apparently the second change resulting in the cost reduction:

{q]Additionally, the revised proposal calls for a $750 annual fee on employers for each full-time worker not offered coverage through their job. The fee would be set at $375 for part-time workers. Companies with fewer than 25 employees would be exempt. The fee was forecast to generate $52 billion over 10 years, money the government would use to help provide subsidies to those who cannot afford insurance.

$52 billion saving over 10 years? That hardly explains this cost reduction at all - insufficient explanation.

Then I noticed this at the bottom of the article:

In their letter, Kennedy and Dodd said the Congressional Budget Office "has carefully reviewed our complete bill, and we are pleased to report that CBO has scored it at $611.4 billion over 10 years, with the new coverage provisions scored at $597 billion

That looks to me be a total of $1.2 trillion?

Would be nice if the new proposal actualy covers all the uninsured for a fraction of the cost, but because of the above I'm sceptical. And I'm somewhat wary that upon finding the cost of the 'old' proposal was shockingly high and politically unpalatable, they, with sleight of hand, decided to break it into different pieces with individually smaller estimates yet in aggregate still the same old amount.

Fern[/quote]

No, the previous estimate most certainly did NOT include the estimates of the effect of the public plan competing with the private plans. Explanation most certainly not unsatisfactory.

In fact, that was the reason I said repeatedly in that other thread that the $1.6 trillion number was ridiculous to make any statements about the health care plan on... specifically because it included all of the costs and none of the savings. Oh and no, you don't add those two numbers together, the smaller is included in the larger.

As previously mentioned in this thread it's very illuminating to see how the CBO numbers that looked bad for this health care plan were trotted out as 'proof' that it was crap, but the revised numbers are now discounted because 'the government can't predict for crap'. Maybe we should rename the 'hostile media phenomenon' the 'hostile CBO phenomenon'. It goes from solid, nonpartisan, and credible to incompetent, inaccurate, and silly all in the span of one budget number revision. Color me shocked.