*UPDATE: CAVE COMPLETE* Boehner's Caving: Say to allies I want a fiscal deal

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Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
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10-16-2013 update: Cave is complete. What the House GOP predicted would be their "Braveheart" moment is now more likely to be seen as their "Mel Gibson arrested for DUI" moment.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/...-debt-ceiling-default-update-98390.html?hp=t1

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will soon announce an agreement to reopen the government and avert default on U.S. debt, according to several sources familiar with the talks.

The leaders are expected to unveil the accord on the Senate floor at noon.

The House is prepared to move on the Senate’s bill first, sources say, a move that would clear a path to end the first government shutdown in 17 years and avoid an economy-shaking default on U.S. debt. House Republican leadership said there’s no decision yet on whether to move the bill first.

“No decision has been made about how or when a potential Senate agreement could be voted on in the House,” said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel.

It remains unclear when a final vote would occur in the Senate. If no senator blocks action there, that chamber could hold a vote before the House.

Sen. Ted Cruz, who led the crusade to dismantle the health care law in the government funding bill, declined to answer repeated questions from reporters Wednesday morning about whether he would block the deal.

But Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he felt lawmakers were ready to end the fiscal crisis that has consumed Capitol Hill for more than two weeks.

“If I had to guess, I think people are ready to vote,” Paul said.

If the House passes the bill first and sends it to the upper chamber, it would eliminate some burdensome procedural hurdles in the Senate and require just one procedural roll call with a 60-vote threshold needed to advance the bill toward final passage in the Senate.

It could be an extraordinarily risky play for Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), because it’s far from clear any Senate proposal would garner the majority of the House Republican Conference. House Republicans have clung to the so-called Hastert Rule, a mantra that the House speaker should not try to pass a bill that doesn’t have the support of the “majority of the majority.” In this case, that would mean 117 Republicans must support the bill to avoid getting crosswise with the rule. Top GOP sources say it’s unlikely they will reach that level of support.

House Democratic leadership expects an overwhelming majority of its caucus will back the Senate deal.

Financial markets cheered news of an agreement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 200 points on Wednesday morning.

The fact that House Republicans are now planning to go that route marks a stunning reversal for the speaker who had backed his conservative wing’s drive to gut Obamacare as part of the government shutdown fight, now in its third week.

It still is not assured that Congress will send President Barack Obama a bill to sign by Thursday, when the Treasury Department warns the country will start running out of cash to pay its bills. Any senator can also hold up the bill in the Senate past the Thursday deadline, but originating the legislation in the House is the fastest path toward passage for lawmakers and is a sign of urgency in the Capitol.

The bill will barely scathe Obamacare, however, and putting it on the floor will mark a huge concession by the House after sparking a 16-day government shutdown over insistence that the health care law be defunded or delayed as a condition to keep the government open. Dozens of conservatives in the House will be disappointed by the proposal and Boehner will need Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to deliver a bevy of votes to pass the bill.
The deal Reid (D-Nev.) and McConnell (R-Ky.) will announce will reopen the government through Jan. 15, lift the debt ceiling through Feb. 7 and develop a bicameral budget committee that would be required to develop a conference report by Dec. 13.

The plan includes a proposal offered by McConnell in the 2011 debt ceiling crisis that allows Congress to disapprove of the debt ceiling increase, which means lawmakers will formally vote on whether to reject of the debt ceiling increase until Feb. 7. Obama can veto that legislation if it passes. If Congress fails as expected to gather a two-thirds majority to override the veto, the debt ceiling would be raised.

The deal would also deliver back pay to furloughed federal workers, require income verification for people seeking health-insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act and also allow the Treasury Department to use extraordinary measures to pay the nation’s bills if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling by Feb. 7.

McConnell was pushing hard to include language to give federal agencies more flexibility to implement the sequester, something Reid was objecting to Wednesday morning, sources say. Democrats argue that provision would make it harder to eliminate the sequester in the future and it was not included in the final package. A new round of sequester cuts will be enacted in January without further congressional action, mostly hitting the defense side of spending.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/...iling-default-update-98390.html#ixzz2hu2vqpTc

Yup, even half-wits saw the cave coming. He'll be out as speaker, by the 2014 elections, and we'll see tax increases via deduction and loophole removals, maybe even SS chained CPI and a repeal of the medical device tax to throw a bone to the nutter contingent in the House.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-cr-house-senate-97793.html?hp=r1

Speaker John Boehner told a small group of his closest congressional allies Thursday afternoon that he planned to use the upcoming confluence of the debt ceiling and continuing resolution to get a large-scale budget deal.

He just doesn’t know how he’s going to do it.

Boehner is privately mulling frameworks to set up a budget agreement with Democrats and the White House, according to those familiar with the meeting and his strategy
The remarks – his most definitive to date – came at a 12:30 lunch in his Capitol suite with a gaggle of Republicans he calls “Team Boehner.”

Boehner urged the roughly 20 GOP lawmakers in the room to stick together and help navigate the rocky politics of a government shutdown and upcoming debt ceiling debate. The meeting was described by several sources present.

The speaker told those gathered that changes to Obamacare should be “part” of the party’s budgetary message, according to those gathered. There is fear inside leadership that if they don’t talk about the Affordable Care Act, conservative lawmakers will accuse them of abandoning the party’s pledge to defang the law. But it’s clear Boehner is aiming beyond Obamacare to entitlements and a rewrite of the Tax Code.

There are major hurdles. Senate Democrats and the White House say they aren’t negotiating over the budget until Congress raises the debt ceiling and reopens government. Boehner, weary of the failure of the supercommittee, is considering alternative frameworks to reach a large-scale agreement. Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) and Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) are intricately involved in this strategy.

The speaker did not think this shutdown is ending anytime soon, according to people present. Asked by a colleague if Republicans could last two weeks in this difficult political climate, Boehner said he was not sure.

Boehner’s closed-door comments come as Washington remains entrenched for a third straight day in the first government shutdown since 1996.

Boehner has also told meetings of Republicans this week that he does not plan to drive the nation into a debt default — a concern of investors and politicians alike. The New York Times reported Thursday Boehner would rely on Democrats and Republicans to lift the debt ceiling. In January, when Congress last raised the debt ceiling, he needed Democrats to pass the bill — 86 Democrats joined with 199 Republicans. The Aug. 2011 Budget Control Act, which also raised the debt ceiling, was passed with Democrats, as well: 95 Democrats voted with 174 Republicans.

As Boehner is aiming for a big deal, House Republicans have taken to the House floor to pass small-bore, targeted spending bills to re-open slices of government. The House Thursday passed legislation to fund veterans benefits and pay armed forces reserve troops during the shutdown. House Republicans will go to the Rules Committee Thursday evening to clear several more similar bills.

The House and Senate are expected to spend at least part of this weekend in session, in an attempt to show that Congress is working during a shutdown. House Republicans will meet Friday morning at 10 a.m. to discuss their strategy.

The markets appear to be responding to Washington for the first time, as the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped 136 points Thursday to below 15,000.

There is no end in sight to this standoff. Senate Democrats and the White House are not budging, and the targeted bills by Republicans shows they are digging in.

In a memo to lawmakers, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said “while no one can predict with certainty how the current shutdown will be resolved, I am confident that if we keep advancing common-sense solutions to the problems created by the shutdown that Senate Democrats and President Obama will eventually agree to meaningful discussions that would allow us to ultimately resolve this impasse.
 
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Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
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I guess you don't know what caving means.

Yeah, I don't see any caving either.

I don't care much for the article, but what I gather is that he's cooking up some big objective. Doesn't sound all that plausible to me.

I'd have to say it's more escalating than caving. At most it's shifting objectives.

Some relevant sentences:

The speaker did not think this shutdown is ending anytime soon, according to people present.

As Boehner is aiming for a big deal

John Boehner told a small group of his closest congressional allies Thursday afternoon that he planned to use the upcoming confluence of the debt ceiling and continuing resolution to get a large-scale budget deal.

There is no end in sight to this standoff. Senate Democrats and the White House are not budging, and the targeted bills by Republicans shows they are digging in.



Fern
 
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First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
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Ya if anything he is setting his sights higher.

lol. I'll work out the details for you since you're a bit slow.

Boehner can't just pass a clean CR and clean debt ceiling, which are his only nearterm options. It's political suicide, because 200 Republicans would vote against it, even though he has the votes in the House. He needs Obamacare concessions included, but he knows he has no leverage to do it in this specific CR/debt ceiling fight, because he has already conceded he won't default on the debt (because he has morals and isn't a knuckle-dragger).

Therefore, to make a clean CR and clean debt ceiling something the House nutters can swallow, he'll need to come up with a grand bargain that includes entitlements. He'll pitch SS chained CPI and Medicare means testing, the granddaddy programs of entitlement reform, and probably continue to push for the medical device tax removal from ACA that has bipartisan agreement. He has to include some sort of concession on Obamacare to save face, as he has already gone down from full ACA defunding, to 1 year delay + removal of the Congress premium contribution + to just 1 year delay + medical device tax removal I believe. He won't get the 1 year delay but he'll get the medical device tax repealed, allowing him the optics of saying he "repealed" part of Obamacare.

However, he probably won't get more than 100 Republicans onboard because while that all sounds great, Obama will ask for significantly more tax revenue and sequester removal, maybe even complete removal of the debt ceiling entirely.

Get it? Lord I hope so.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,320
3
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lol. I'll work out the details for you since you're a bit slow.

Boehner can't just pass a clean CR and clean debt ceiling, which are his only nearterm options. It's political suicide, because 200 Republicans would vote against it, even though he has the votes in the House. He needs Obamacare concessions included, but he knows he has no leverage to do it in this specific CR/debt ceiling fight, because he has already conceded he won't default on the debt (because he has morals and isn't a knuckle-dragger).

Therefore, to make a clean CR and clean debt ceiling something the House nutters can swallow, he'll need to come up with a grand bargain that includes entitlements. He'll pitch SS chained CPI and Medicare means testing, the granddaddy programs of entitlement reform, and probably continue to push for the medical device tax removal from ACA that has bipartisan agreement. He has to include some sort of concession on Obamacare to save face, as he has already gone down from full ACA defunding, to 1 year delay + removal of the Congress premium contribution + to just 1 year delay + medical device tax removal I believe. He won't get the 1 year delay but he'll get the medical device tax repealed, allowing him the optics of saying he "repealed" part of Obamacare.

However, he probably won't get more than 100 Republicans onboard because while that all sounds great, Obama will ask for significantly more tax revenue and sequester removal, maybe even complete removal of the debt ceiling entirely.

Get it? Lord I hope so.

The speaker told those gathered that changes to Obamacare should be “part” of the party’s budgetary message

That tells you right there he is not caving. Maybe instead of mirroring some liberal nutjob's opinion on some statements you actually read it and make your own conclusions?
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
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It's the typical partisan hack narrative.

step 1: portray GOP as stubborn SOBs unwilling to give an inch ever
step 2: insult GOP for being stubborn SOBs
step 3: point out individual Republicans who are not stubborn SOBs
step 4: insult Republicans who are not stubborn SOBs

None of those steps need any basis in reality, just continue hurling insults, the other hacks will appreciate it.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
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That tells you right there he is not caving. Maybe instead of mirroring some liberal nutjob's opinion on some statements you actually read it and make your own conclusions?

Herp a derp. You didn't read my post carefully or your own quote for that matter. I talked about the medical device tax as a mechanism Boehner could use to throw a bone to his House nutter contingent. That's part of Obamacare, a tax. Notice the Politico statement you regurgitated puts quotes around "part". That's intentional. Figure it out.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,320
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Herp a derp. You didn't read my post carefully or your own quote for that matter. I talked about the medical device tax as a mechanism Boehner could use to throw a bone to his House nutter contingent. That's part of Obamacare, a tax. Notice the Politico statement you regurgitated puts quotes around "part". That's intentional. Figure it out.

So in your mind going from a CR with just a year mandate delay and congress health entitlement removed to a full blow entitlement reform, medical device tax removal and the 1 year delay is caving. I have got to get me that Liberal handbook.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
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Heh. Boehner is just prepping the troops for the cave-in. He knows it, sensible Repubs know it, & they're just trying to find a way to placate the Teahadists & save his speakership.

Good luck with all of that. Obama quit feeding the bears, chased 'em off, & they're now tearing Boehner's house down to get what they want. He still thinks that feeding them is the answer.
 
Apr 27, 2012
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Heh. Boehner is just prepping the troops for the cave-in. He knows it, sensible Repubs know it, & they're just trying to find a way to placate the Teahadists & save his speakership.

Good luck with all of that. Obama quit feeding the bears, chased 'em off, & they're now tearing Boehner's house down to get what they want. He still thinks that feeding them is the answer.

Love the hypocrisy. The Tea Party are "teadhadists" but radical Islamists aren't? You probably got tea-bagged real good by these patriots.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,320
3
0
Heh. Boehner is just prepping the troops for the cave-in. He knows it, sensible Repubs know it, & they're just trying to find a way to placate the Teahadists & save his speakership.

Good luck with all of that. Obama quit feeding the bears, chased 'em off, & they're now tearing Boehner's house down to get what they want. He still thinks that feeding them is the answer.

This must be what you do right before you make any posts.

headup.jpg
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,300
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in the past, raising the debt ceiling meant an equal amount cut from the budget.
not only can I live with this, I want this!

but I don't want removing the medical device tax. its needed to help pay for Obamacare.

just raise debt limit and cut budget by same amount.
easy peasy since both parties voted yes on this multiple times.

then go back to the govt shutdown fight.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,060
48,066
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It's pretty simple. Boehner thinks (correctly) that the Republicans are losing badly at this point. He knows that Obama has always wanted some big fiscal deal so he's hoping to draw Obama to the negotiating table by dangling this in front of him. If Obama is smart he will once again tell him where he can shove this proposal.

Again: no negotiations of this type, ever, is the only logical position for the Democrats to take.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,060
48,066
136
in the past, raising the debt ceiling meant an equal amount cut from the budget.
not only can I live with this, I want this!

but I don't want removing the medical device tax. its needed to help pay for Obamacare.

just raise debt limit and cut budget by same amount.
easy peasy since both parties voted yes on this multiple times.

then go back to the govt shutdown fight.

By "in the past" do you mean "exactly once in the entire history of the United States"? Because that would be more accurate.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,055
33,104
136
Just another impotent tactic from someone who has no moves left. The Dems and the President have repeatedly said they won't negotiate like this and haven't budged one inch. Meanwhile moderate Republicans are watching the polling and stock markets with increasing unease.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Just another impotent tactic from someone who has no moves left. The Dems and the President have repeatedly said they won't negotiate like this and haven't budged one inch. Meanwhile moderate Republicans are watching the polling and stock markets with increasing unease.

They don't need any more moves since the shutdown is already in place. Obama not negotiating leaves it in place, so Obama is the one who needs a move in order to get the shutdown lifted. Status quo favors Republicans, just as it did during the Sequester fight. There is really nothing for the GOP to gain by giving in and granting a "clean" continuing resolution, they've already taken the assault from the Democrats and news media for it happening in the first place so they might as well stick with it. It's not like the news media will start singing their praises if they do pass the clean CR.
 

CrackRabbit

Lifer
Mar 30, 2001
16,641
58
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They don't need any more moves since the shutdown is already in place. Obama not negotiating leaves it in place, so Obama is the one who needs a move in order to get the shutdown lifted. Status quo favors Republicans, just as it did during the Sequester fight. There is really nothing for the GOP to gain by giving in and granting a "clean" continuing resolution, they've already taken the assault from the Democrats and news media for it happening in the first place so they might as well stick with it. It's not like the news media will start singing their praises if they do pass the clean CR.

They have a lot to gain, like having more than a snowball's chance in hell of being re-elected.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,060
48,066
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They don't need any more moves since the shutdown is already in place. Obama not negotiating leaves it in place, so Obama is the one who needs a move in order to get the shutdown lifted. Status quo favors Republicans, just as it did during the Sequester fight. There is really nothing for the GOP to gain by giving in and granting a "clean" continuing resolution, they've already taken the assault from the Democrats and news media for it happening in the first place so they might as well stick with it. It's not like the news media will start singing their praises if they do pass the clean CR.

This is a fantasy. If the status quo favors republicans as you say, than surely the democrats will be the ones to give in. Care to wager on that?

It is also interesting to see increasing numbers of republicans jumping ship, considering the fact that apparently this set of circumstances favors them.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,060
48,066
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It is interesting to see what conservatives are telling each other in order to try and buck up morale though.