Unemployment... what do you expect?

[UNCjigga]

If we can start getting back to normal by July (I.e. treatments available to kill virus; testing everyone within 15 minutes = no more social distancing unless you’re infected = bars/restaurants/businesses open; borders back to normal; airports/airlines back to normal summer loads) then I don’t think it’ll be worse than 10% unemployment.

The real danger is if this goes through the end of summer, we miss a full tourist season, and the virus picks back up in the Fall. Then you’re looking at up to 50% unemployment and banks failing.

 

[soundforbjt]

If we can start getting back to normal by July (I.e. treatments available to kill virus; testing everyone within 15 minutes = no more social distancing unless you’re infected = bars/restaurants/businesses open; borders back to normal; airports/airlines back to normal summer loads) then I don’t think it’ll be worse than 10% unemployment.

The real danger is if this goes through the end of summer, we miss a full tourist season, and the virus picks back up in the Fall. Then you’re looking at up to 50% unemployment and banks failing.

You left out Trump cancelling the election for an undetermined time.

 

[JSt0rm]

We're not going to be shut down until there is a vaccine. Probably a couple months to get the mass infections under control. Chunks of the economy will start coming back with protools to protect public health.

Letting this thing run is not at all an option.

yeah. We have the collective brain power of the entire industrial/medical/scientific world community working on this shit. I'm expecting good results from that with trump blocking and slowing it down.

 

[Meghan54]

You left out Trump cancelling the election for an undetermined time.

He can't. He can delay a few weeks maybe but if he tries to cancel the election with the notion of remaining President in Jan. 2021, let me introduce Pres. Pelosi to you.

Hint: If there's no general election in 2020, Constitutional Succession prevails, since no one was elected President, and the Speaker of the House takes over as President in Jan. 2021.

 

[JEDIYoda]

He can't. He can delay a few weeks maybe but if he tries to cancel the election with the notion of remaining President in Jan. 2021, let me introduce Pres. Pelosi to you.

Hint: If there's no general election in 2020, Constitutional Succession prevails, since no one was elected President, and the Speaker of the House takes over as President in Jan. 2021.

I like your style!!

 

[Jhhnn]

He can't. He can delay a few weeks maybe but if he tries to cancel the election with the notion of remaining President in Jan. 2021, let me introduce Pres. Pelosi to you.

Hint: If there's no general election in 2020, Constitutional Succession prevails, since no one was elected President, and the Speaker of the House takes over as President in Jan. 2021.

The Twentieth Amendment is quite specific in that regard. I want Joe Biden & Dems in general to propose universal vote by mail & to adopt it in states they control as a public safety measure to protect our Seniors. It's still up to each State but it would be a PR coup & a victory for honest democracy.

 

[SMOGZINN]

The Twentieth Amendment is quite specific in that regard. I want Joe Biden & Dems in general to propose universal vote by mail & to adopt it in states they control as a public safety measure to protect our Seniors. It's still up to each State but it would be a PR coup & a victory for honest democracy.

You know, people keep saying 'Trump can't do that' then he goes right ahead and does it and tell us it is for the courts to figure out if he can or not, knowing full well that those of us that believe in the system will let it play out for the years it takes to work it's way up to SCOTUS.

 

[JEDIYoda]

You know, people keep saying 'Trump can't do that' then he goes right ahead and does it and tell us it is for the courts to figure out if he can or not, knowing full well that those of us that believe in the system will let it play out for the years it takes to work it's way up to SCOTUS.

Plus Trump is convinced that he has stacked the courts in his favor.....

 

[Jhhnn]

You know, people keep saying 'Trump can't do that' then he goes right ahead and does it and tell us it is for the courts to figure out if he can or not, knowing full well that those of us that believe in the system will let it play out for the years it takes to work it's way up to SCOTUS.

That could only be accomplished by force of arms. Now tell us, realistically, who would back such a play & how it could be accomplished. Failing re-election, Trump will no longer be President as of Noon, January 20, 2021.

 

[vi edit]

I posted this in the Dow thread, but Oregon is bracing for 20% unemployment. High tourism and service industry states will see similar.

Oregon jobless claims surge 3,200% amid coronavirus outbreak

An Oregon business leader predicted the state’s unemployment rate could rise as high as 20% in the coming months as the economic catastrophe deepens, a rate that implies nearly 500,000 people would be looking for work.

www.oregonlive.com

 

[SMOGZINN]

That could only be accomplished by force of arms. Now tell us, realistically, who would back such a play & how it could be accomplished. Failing re-election, Trump will no longer be President as of Noon, January 20, 2021.

Honestly, we have heard all this before. It was settled law that you could not simply ignore a congressional subpoena. It was obvious that the IRS could not simply ignore a request for someone's tax return. It is settled law that the Hatch act applies to the White House press secretary. How many examples do we need of Trump simply ignoring the law and doing what he wants.

You have it exactly backwards. Who would stop him? The Constitution is just a piece of paper, it can't do anything unless there are people willing to enforce it. He has replaced all the people that would normally enforce that sort of thing and replaced them with people loyal to him. The only way to stop him would be with force of arms, and no one seems willing to do that.

 

[Dulanic]

So I kind of like this op-ed "bridge loan" idea. I hate the idea of bailing out whatever industry is the talk of the day. A 0 interest bridge loan would spread the pain for all across all. EVERYONE will be impacted by this whole situation one way or another. Yes I'd love a $1K check, but I'd much rather my wifes company be given a 0 interest loan /w the requirement to keep employees working instead.

This Is the Only Way to End the Coronavirus Financial Panic (Published 2020)

Bailouts of companies or industries just cause division. The answer: a government “bridge loan” to everyone.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Jhhnn]

Honestly, we have heard all this before. It was settled law that you could not simply ignore a congressional subpoena. It was obvious that the IRS could not simply ignore a request for someone's tax return. It is settled law that the Hatch act applies to the White House press secretary. How many examples do we need of Trump simply ignoring the law and doing what he wants.

You have it exactly backwards. Who would stop him? The Constitution is just a piece of paper, it can't do anything unless there are people willing to enforce it. He has replaced all the people that would normally enforce that sort of thing and replaced them with people loyal to him. The only way to stop him would be with force of arms, and no one seems willing to do that.

You really don't get it. Do you really believe that the Deep State, a real thing, will obey the orders of Trump, his Cabinet or any of his appointees when his Constitutional authority expires? It's not like he's created a cult of personality in the realms of the FBI, SS, Capitol police or the military, either. Quite the contrary, I'm sure. I figure the SS will escort him right on out, even if he has to be sedated & strapped to a gurney.

 

[thraashman]

You really don't get it. Do you really believe that the Deep State, a real thing, will obey the orders of Trump, his Cabinet or any of his appointees when his Constitutional authority expires? It's not like he's created a cult of personality in the realms of the FBI, SS, Capitol police or the military, either. Quite the contrary, I'm sure. I figure the SS will escort him right on out, even if he has to be sedated & strapped to a gurney.

The simple truth is if he tries to hold on to power and cancel the election, there'll be a half dozen terrorist attacks a week targeting him and the maga hats.

 

[SMOGZINN]

You really don't get it. Do you really believe that the Deep State, a real thing, will obey the orders of Trump, his Cabinet or any of his appointees when his Constitutional authority expires?

Yes. I'm a part of that 'deep state'. I know we will, because we always have. If there is anything I know about the 'deep state' it is that no one wants to rock the boat. The vast majority of us just want to not be noticed by anyone higher on the chain than us. Nothing but trouble comes from being noticed. Pure momentum will carry us forward.

It's not like he's created a cult of personality in the realms of the FBI, SS, Capitol police or the military, either. Quite the contrary, I'm sure. I figure the SS will escort him right on out, even if he has to be sedated & strapped to a gurney.

The SS would be our best hope, but I'm sure he has been working to remove anyone that would do such a thing from that agency.

In the end if he decides to do such a thing (and to be clear I don't think he will, I think even he knows that it would put him in mortal danger, and he loves his hide more then the power) he will give some excuse that I think that the civil service members, including the Secret Service, will be highly split between those that agree with him and would oppose any attempt to remove him and those that know it is bullshit. Given the opposition, nothing will be done. With out agreement to unite people it will be easier to just wait to see what the courts say, because otherwise you are talking about fighting and possibly having to kill your own people who believes it is their duty to protect the President.

I mean, when you look at it like that, why would you do something that could start a war, at least a minor one within the agency when it is pretty obvious that the courts will set this straight, right? That is what has happened every time.

 

[SMOGZINN]

The simple truth is if he tries to hold on to power and cancel the election, there'll be a half dozen terrorist attacks a week targeting him and the maga hats.

This is why I think he won't do it. Not because the Constitution or some government agency would stop him. Because he knows that it would cause some real serious attempts at assassinating him.

 

[Thump553]

It certainly will be the highest level of unemployment any of us have seen in our lifetimes, at least while most of the country is in lockdown. The stats I've seen floated around is that food service is 10% of my state's population. Admittedly not all of them are laid off (drive through and take out still allowed), but the casinos, gyms, movie theaters, concert halls, etc are also shut down. There are variances across the country, but I think a floor of 10% unemployment in the short term is probable.

Very hard to predict out further. I think Trump's penchant to focus on economic bailouts before solving the health problem (or at least getting it under control) is hyper-expensive and unlikely to work. Instead of trying to buy votes and pay off their patrons, the GOP plan should be pouring money into production of protective gear, ventilators, training new medical staff, etc.

I say GOP plan because, so far at least, only the GOP is involved in the negotiations.

 

[Moonbeam]

I don't know.

 

[sportage]

Donald Trump and his staff of expertises morons really have it easy. THEY, so far, can get away with their crap. But how will they react, what kind of a rosy picture will they paint should tens of thousands of Americans begin dying ???
Do they just brush it off with claiming, IT WILL BE ALL OVER IN A FEW WEEKS. Or... how about China? Claiming new infections are now zero and Trump believes them? As if the virus decided WELL, THATS ENOUGH KILLING. WERE GOING TO STOP NOW.

Hey..... China is lying and trying to put Americans into a false sense of security. Because if China could do that then maybe Americans and with the number one American being Donald Trump, will drop their guard and thus millions of Americans will die.
China claims it’s all under control. People don’t believe that, but Donald Trump and Mike pence believes that. And sadly. America will pay the price.

 

[Paratus]

He can't. He can delay a few weeks maybe but if he tries to cancel the election with the notion of remaining President in Jan. 2021, let me introduce Pres. Pelosi to you.

Hint: If there's no general election in 2020, Constitutional Succession prevails, since no one was elected President, and the Speaker of the House takes over as President in Jan. 2021.

Technically if no election was held then Pelosi would be out along with the entire house. That leaves the senior most member of the senate majority. Since many more republicans are up for re-election in the senate than Dems the remaining Dems would take control of the Senate which means maybe acting President Patrick Leahy.

 

[ivwshane]

This is why I think he won't do it. Not because the Constitution or some government agency would stop him. Because he knows that it would cause some real serious attempts at assassinating him.

Who would want to assassinate the best president in US history?


Yes he believes that and he also believes people are out to get him but he believes he is protected from them.

Using logic and a normal persons reactions/motives to figure out how/what trump will do is just foolish.

 

[zzyzxroad]

Looks like we will be fine. In this video around the 55 minute mark, trump cleared things up today.

I think i have his quote right.

"One of the things they’re working on as you know one of the elements ehhh that is being worked on very much so on the hill is to keep the jobs going so that when we do get rid of the virus we can go like a rocket"

 

[Paratus]

It’s going to be BAD.

 

[Dulanic]

It’s going to be BAD.

View attachment 18373

Tons more will be filing next week. I've seen and read of far more layoffs this week than last week.

 

[Jhhnn]

Technically if no election was held then Pelosi would be out along with the entire house. That leaves the senior most member of the senate majority. Since many more republicans are up for re-election in the senate than Dems the remaining Dems would take control of the Senate which means maybe acting President Patrick Leahy.

Failing re-election, Trump's term of office will expire at noon on Jan 20, 2021. That's a sure thing. The rest is speculation.