Um.... global economic meltdown around the corner?

[Deleted member 4644]

*Food prices are exploding anywhere from 5% to 300% over the last year.
*Oil has gone from about $20 to $119 in a few years.
*Airlines are on the brink of total collapse (Delta just posted a $10 billion loss for the quarter).
*Banks are being propped up by emergency government actions (over 350 billion so far this year, in the US alone).
*Foreign sovereigns are buying what is left of the banks (10s of billions so far this year).
*Foreclosures of homes are up somewhere around 400%.
*Job cuts in most/many sectors, except government jobs.
*People beginning to starve in 2nd world countries

Um... is it just me, or is this starting to look like a legitimate crisis across all sectors?

http://www.washingtontimes.com...1001&template=nextpage

 

[JS80]

Define "global economic meltdown."

 

[Tab]

I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Tab
I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

 

[Genx87]

I think we are on a verge of a global recession. No doubt about it and some of the issues are directly linked to govt interference in the markets. Ethanol production requirements have lead to lower wheat planting in the United States. I heard we have to import wheat this year for the first time ever(I think).

btw when was the last time oil was 20 bucks a barrel? 1998? That is a decade ago, not just a few years.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I think we are on a verge of a global recession. No doubt about it and some of the issues are directly linked to govt interference in the markets. Ethanol production requirements have lead to lower wheat planting in the United States. I heard we have to import wheat this year for the first time ever(I think).

btw when was the last time oil was 20 bucks a barrel? 1998? That is a decade ago, not just a few years.

I was going to mention this too. The global economy is slowing because of government intervention in the markets. This inevitably causes a slowdown in economic activity. If a protectionist anti-free market candidate is elected it is a guarantee there will be a global recession.

 

[desy]

Cheap energy drives everything, so peak oilers have 3 positions.
Doomers, life goes back to the 1850's say over the next 100 yrs
Bumpy plateau, technology/markets will fix but it will be a painful exercise
Technofix, tranisitions to new technology or supply will occur as we need them to, A-OK!

I'm bumpy plateau, NA should be OK but a lot of the world will increasingly become ugly, it already is. . . .

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Tab
I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

Those unemployment numbers were calculated differently then than today. You can't honestly compare them the way you're doing.

And most of us were all living so well, until about last year when a global banking crisis hit. If it hasn't hit you yet, I guarantee you it will soon. It's spreading like a wildfire. Next stop: tourism is about to have a very bad year.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Genx87
I think we are on a verge of a global recession. No doubt about it and some of the issues are directly linked to govt interference in the markets. Ethanol production requirements have lead to lower wheat planting in the United States. I heard we have to import wheat this year for the first time ever(I think).

btw when was the last time oil was 20 bucks a barrel? 1998? That is a decade ago, not just a few years.

I was going to mention this too. The global economy is slowing because of government intervention in the markets. This inevitably causes a slowdown in economic activity. If a protectionist anti-free market candidate is elected it is a guarantee there will be a global recession.

Other than the fact that I agree with you that I'm pissed that I have to run E10 gas all year now, despite its negative environmental and food supply effects, this is an absolutely nuts assessment of the current economic situation. Unless you'd like to tell specifically which government intervention in the markets you're referring to that's different than before?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Tab
I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

What? Because I really trust the average 84 year old for a thorough understanding of contemporary economics.

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Hence "around the corner", not "now". Employment is a transient state, it's nothing that can he held onto like land. It is growing. I doubt it will get to 25%, but it's on its way up.

 

[Deleted member 4644]

To respond to JS80, I would define global economic meltdown as any situation where our daily lives actually change as a result of prices/shortages etc.

Thus, if many fewer people fly, if even the US middle class is worrying about food prices, if the same people start driving less.. those would be good base indicators. Above average levels of starvation and suffering in 2nd world areas like Mexico and South America would also be important data points for me.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
To respond to JS80, I would define global economic meltdown as any situation where our daily lives actually change as a result of prices/shortages etc.

Thus, if many fewer people fly, if even the US middle class is worrying about food prices, if the same people start driving less.. those would be good base indicators. Above average levels of starvation and suffering in 2nd world areas like Mexico and South America would also be important data points for me.

Define "Above average levels of starvation and suffering"

But your first line is hardly an economic meltdown. I would define an economic meltdown as the masses not being able to work. And that usually only occurs when government intervention results in the restriction of economic flexibility.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
To respond to JS80, I would define global economic meltdown as any situation where our daily lives actually change as a result of prices/shortages etc.

Thus, if many fewer people fly, if even the US middle class is worrying about food prices, if the same people start driving less.. those would be good base indicators. Above average levels of starvation and suffering in 2nd world areas like Mexico and South America would also be important data points for me.

Define "Above average levels of starvation and suffering"

But your first line is hardly an economic meltdown. I would define an economic meltdown as the masses not being able to work. And that usually only occurs when government intervention results in the restriction of economic flexibility.

If 10 people starve for every 100 now and tomorrow it's 11, that's above average.

 

[Dufusyte]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Tab
Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Those unemployment numbers were calculated differently then than today.

Today you fall off the Unemployment Statistic if you are out of work for over 6 months.

If you apply this to the Great Depression, they had 25% unemployment for the first six months, and then Unemployment went to Zero.

 

[IGBT]

..I suspect opec will drop the dollar and establish the euro for oil sales.

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Tab
I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

I meant depression in more of a a whole sense - that's why I used the quotes. And who's we? Just the United States?

The world doesn't seem to be moving in a positive direction and I don't think anyone will disagree with that.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: JS80

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

Are you really so niave as to believe that that 5% number is an accurate reflection of reality and not a politically doctored up figure?

For that matter, the unemployment number fails to provide any information about quality of employment. After all, someone who earns poverty wages or who only works a few hours a week or who is severely underemployed and involuntarily-out-of-field is still technically employed. If 97% of the population worked for poverty wages the unemployment figure would be a magnificent 3%.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: JS80

I was going to mention this too. The global economy is slowing because of government intervention in the markets. This inevitably causes a slowdown in economic activity. If a protectionist anti-free market candidate is elected it is a guarantee there will be a global recession.

You say that almost as though it's a religious dogma. Is it possible that a large contributing factor to the problem is not merely nations' economic systems but also an issue of carrying capacity and whether the world has enough resources to provide for the world's population to live a Western middle class or even lower middle class lifestyle? The fact that oil exists in a finite quantity and that it is not renewable has little to do with market intervention.

 

[babylon5]

Originally posted by: Dufusyte

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Tab
Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Those unemployment numbers were calculated differently then than today.

Today you fall off the Unemployment Statistic if you are out of work for over 6 months.

If you apply this to the Great Depression, they had 25% unemployment for the first six months, and then Unemployment went to Zero.

:thumbsup:

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I think we are on a verge of a global recession. No doubt about it and some of the issues are directly linked to govt interference in the markets. Ethanol production requirements have lead to lower wheat planting in the United States. I heard we have to import wheat this year for the first time ever(I think).

btw when was the last time oil was 20 bucks a barrel? 1998? That is a decade ago, not just a few years.

If true about Importing Wheat, it would be the second time. The Mississippi flood of '9x was the first time. Although, I think that was only certain types of Wheat required Importing.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I think we are on a verge of a global recession. No doubt about it and some of the issues are directly linked to govt interference in the markets. Ethanol production requirements have lead to lower wheat planting in the United States. I heard we have to import wheat this year for the first time ever(I think).

btw when was the last time oil was 20 bucks a barrel? 1998? That is a decade ago, not just a few years.

Uhh... Wheat acres INCREASED last year.

 

[GTaudiophile]

LOL! I love how the Global Warming religion is coming back around to kick them in the ass. Thank you, Ethanol!

 

[GTaudiophile]

The Role of Speculators in the Global Food Crisis:

http://www.spiegel.de/internat.../0,1518,549187,00.html

(Article in English)

 

[ProfJohn]

I read some place that there were signs that we were already starting a recovery.

Guess we shall know in a few more weeks/months.

One of the points made in the article was that the steps the Fed had made to prevent a recession were going to result in a period of slow economic growth. As if the options were a recession followed by a normal growth period or no recession, but an extended period of slow growth instead.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I think we are on a verge of a global recession. No doubt about it and some of the issues are directly linked to govt interference in the markets. Ethanol production requirements have lead to lower wheat planting in the United States. I heard we have to import wheat this year for the first time ever(I think).

btw when was the last time oil was 20 bucks a barrel? 1998? That is a decade ago, not just a few years.

Oil was $10 a barrel in 1998.