Ukraine and the BOMB

[Perknose]

The Future Ukrainian Nuclear Weapons Program: A Done Deal?

by Benjamin Cook

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

^^^ I felt this deserved it's own thread. And yes, I asked the Omni Olord here (a close personal friend and mutual admirer) and he gave me the go ahead. ;-)

 

[feralkid]

Thanks, Putin; without your bone-headed SMO, none of this would have been necessary.

 

[K1052]

A clandestine PUREX facility seems the most likely option since they have plenty of spent fuel and it doesn't require the space or electricity demands of a centrifuge cascade.

Though I think Ukraine would require at least a half dozen weapons to establish deterrence and credible means to deliver them to target.

 

[sandorski]

Wonder if they want a research partner.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

A clandestine PUREX facility seems the most likely option since they have plenty of spent fuel and it doesn't require the space or electricity demands of a centrifuge cascade.

Though I think Ukraine would require at least a half dozen weapons to establish deterrence and credible means to deliver them to target.

A single 100kt on Moscow would end most functions of the Russian government and would likely trigger a massive crisis in Eastern Europe and northern China. I don't think they need to build and extensive program, just enough to prove they can get a fireball on target there.

 

[K1052]

A single 100kt on Moscow would end most functions of the Russian government and would likely trigger a massive crisis in Eastern Europe and northern China. I don't think they need to build and extensive program, just enough to prove they can get a fireball on target there.

I'd think you'd want to be able to threaten at least Moscow and St. Petersburg and back-ups are needed incase of availability issues or if the Russians nabbed some in a first strike. 6-8 mobile thermonuclear tipped ballistic missiles sounds like the ticket.

 

[IronWing]

A single 100kt on Moscow would end most functions of the Russian government and would likely trigger a massive crisis in Eastern Europe and northern China. I don't think they need to build and extensive program, just enough to prove they can get a fireball on target there.

After dropping the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US possessed two nuclear bombs, was months away from having sufficient materials to build any more, and Stalin knew it. Two bombs were sufficient deterrent to prevent Stalin from seizing more of Europe. Nuclear deterrence has never required more than a small number of reliable weapons.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I'd think you'd want to be able to threaten at least Moscow and St. Petersburg and back-ups are needed incase of availability issues or if the Russians nabbed some in a first strike. 6-8 mobile thermonuclear tipped ballistic missiles sounds like the ticket.

I agree, you want to make sure you actually make contact so having multiple warheads is the right approach. Ironically due to this absurd war, Russian nuclear missile defense is at it's weakest level in 70 years or whatever.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

After dropping the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US possessed two nuclear bombs, was months away from having sufficient materials to build any more, and Stalin knew it. Two bombs were sufficient deterrent to prevent Stalin from seizing more of Europe. Nuclear deterrence has never required more than a small number of reliable weapons.

Actually I thought those were the sum total of our nuclear material at that time? Pretty sure we were tapped out after Nagasaki.

 

[IronWing]

Actually I thought those were the sum total of our nuclear material at that time? Pretty sure we were tapped out after Nagasaki.

You are probably right, I may be misremembering.

 

[Amused]

Actually I thought those were the sum total of our nuclear material at that time? Pretty sure we were tapped out after Nagasaki.

"Yes, there was indeed a third bomb forthcoming if Japan didn’t surrender after the second bomb was dropped. This third bomb, sometimes referred to as the second Fat Man or the Third Shot, was another plutonium-239 implosion bomb. "

A Tale of Two Bomb Designs | Los Alamos National Laboratory

Two types of nuclear weapons were developed at the Los Alamos wartime lab in an effort to help end World War II. Both would be released above Japan just days apart in August 1945, and just weeks after the July 16 Trinity test in the New Mexico desert.

www.lanl.gov

"Groves’s directive, written on July 23, 1945, just weeks before Little Boy and Fat Man were released, stated that additional bombs would be delivered for use against the Japanese targets once they became available. The plutonium production facilities at Hanford in Washington state continued to work at capacity. Production of materials for assembly of a third bomb was well underway when Japan officially surrendered on September 2, 1945."

 

[K1052]

Actually I thought those were the sum total of our nuclear material at that time? Pretty sure we were tapped out after Nagasaki.

A 3rd weapon would have been available in late August of 1945. The later infamous "Demon Core".

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

"Yes, there was indeed a third bomb forthcoming if Japan didn’t surrender after the second bomb was dropped. This third bomb, sometimes referred to as the second Fat Man or the Third Shot, was another plutonium-239 implosion bomb. "

A Tale of Two Bomb Designs | Los Alamos National Laboratory

Two types of nuclear weapons were developed at the Los Alamos wartime lab in an effort to help end World War II. Both would be released above Japan just days apart in August 1945, and just weeks after the July 16 Trinity test in the New Mexico desert.

www.lanl.gov

"Groves’s directive, written on July 23, 1945, just weeks before Little Boy and Fat Man were released, stated that additional bombs would be delivered for use against the Japanese targets once they became available. The plutonium production facilities at Hanford in Washington state continued to work at capacity. Production of materials for assembly of a third bomb was well underway when Japan officially surrendered on September 2, 1945."

Gotcha, that makes a lot of sense... 2 prepped with manufacturing ramping.

A 3rd weapon would have been available in late August of 1945. The later infamous "Demon Core".

Ahh I wondered what that was originally developed for. Apparently killing more civilians!

 

[IronWing]

Back in the early 80s, I recall a discussion I had with my former biology teacher about the nuclear arms race. The nuclear freeze movement was picking up steam in Europe and making the news. Growing up, I never really expected to survive to adulthood, let alone get old. The Boomers had survival drills. By the time Gen X came along, the adults had stopped pretending that there was any chance of survival so we didn't waste time on drills. Anyway, my former biology teacher made the comment that he wasn't worried at all about nuclear war because no government would be willing to risk even one city let alone full MAD. No government would stand after losing a city. Years later, I learned that his thinking was also the prevailing belief in both the American and Soviet leadership during that period, other than within the Paul Nitze/Paul Wolfowitz/Dick Cheney clique. The nuclear arms race was about just about everything except deterrence.

 

[Paratus]

After dropping the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US possessed two nuclear bombs, was months away from having sufficient materials to build any more, and Stalin knew it. Two bombs were sufficient deterrent to prevent Stalin from seizing more of Europe. Nuclear deterrence has never required more than a small number of reliable weapons.

There was a third core available in 1945.

Demon core - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Ironically if it had been required to be incorporated into a bomb for deterrence it would have killed fewer people.

 

[K1052]

Ironically if it had been required to be incorporated into a bomb for deterrence it would have killed fewer people.

The ultimate achievement in stove touching:

 

[Paratus]

The ultimate achievement in stove touching:



View attachment 116804

(This feels like a kids game in the Fallout universe. )

Seems like a waste of good fissile material but if Ukraine has a bunch laying around…..

 

[HomerJS]

Just think in the 90s we convinced Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons for the sake of stability with the promise to help with their defense.

 

[Jaskalas]

Just think in the 90s we convinced Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons for the sake of stability with the promise to help with their defense.

Now that promise of stability has soured into full blown world war crisis.
Where the Eastern Bloc is willing to rip off the mask and declare that they hunger for war and millions of dead.

Ukraine needs nuclear weapons. At least a dozen warheads, maybe a few dozen.
That was never a world I wanted, but it is the world we need if we are to stave off military advances further into Europe. Ukraine is the bulwark that must hold, and if nuclear weapons are needed to hold that line - then so be it.

 

[HomerJS]

Now that promise of stability has soured into full blown world war crisis.
Where the Eastern Bloc is willing to rip off the mask and declare that they hunger for war and millions of dead.

Ukraine needs nuclear weapons. At least a dozen warheads, maybe a few dozen.
That was never a world I wanted, but it is the world we need if we are to stave off military advances further into Europe. Ukraine is the bulwark that must hold, and if nuclear weapons are needed to hold that line - then so be it.

Problem is Trump will help Putin ID any enrichment facility so he can bomb it.

 

[K1052]

Problem is Trump will help Putin ID any enrichment facility so he can bomb it.

One could easily stash a small PUREX plant underground somewhere out of the reach of conventional weapons.

 

[MrSquished]

I'm thinking the blue states need to start acquiring their own nukes.

 

[K1052]

I'm thinking the blue states need to start acquiring their own nukes.

If we end up in a secession crisis why build them when you can get them from the feds for free?

 

[MrSquished]

If we end up in a secession crisis why build them when you can get them from the feds for free?

Acquire not build

Considering how fast things are moving I'm thinking secession is probably the only way to save part of the country.

At the rate we're going I'm not even sure the midterms are going to much of a fair election

 

[HomerJS]

Acquire not build

Considering how fast things are moving I'm thinking secession is probably the only way to save part of the country.

At the rate we're going I'm not even sure the midterms are going to much of a fair election

I was a little shocked 538 Trump approval shows he is above water since the inauguration. Then I thought about it. Like me people who are upset after Trump won have checked out. I stopped watching news/paying attention until recently. I suspect that will change within a few weeks.