Tyler Cowen interview on Times Radio concerning where we're going

[Muse]

Almost 20 minutes but worth it. I like his perspective, he's intelligent, easy going, optimistic, observant, responsive, gives thoughtful answers to everything thrown at him. Mostly I find it easy to agree with him, but there are a few moments toward the end that were eyebrow raisers for me. He's a "silicon valley economist," now living in San Francisco. He's clearly convivial, I think a conversation with him would be enlightening, entertaining, provocative, informative.

 

[Jaskalas]

First statement: "The Courts do not like him"
Is Trump supposed to care about that?
Seems optimistic to think Courts still matter to MAGA.

Second: "too much freedom has been bad for us? No."
MAGA's freedom of propaganda has completely overwhelmed our Democratic institutions and corrupted civil service into serving a cult of personality, a person, an Emperor.

That an alt-reality exists... started with "fake news" and RAPIDLY moved to "fake election, fake Democracy". Directly caused Jan 6th. Their freedom to radicalize and form a coup attempt is bad. That was child's play compared to their next efforts. They will never allow themselves to peacefully lose another election. 2028 will be blood unless MAGA wins. Because we allow them to organize for vitriol and delusion. It only has ONE destination.

And if anyone disagrees with that assessment then I tell you... watch and find out. Jan 6th was just the beginning for them. A cult of alt-reality does not get better.

....
Third: "Populism is a rejection of experts.... but JD Vance...."
Wait.. is this clown telling us JD Vance is an expert. A scientifically sound mind?
WTF. You have got to be kidding.

Granted, he's no Trump. But he's on that ride, and much of what I have heard from Vance fits MAGA to a T. Fully engaged in the alt-reality and the cult of personality. He may not be the singularly stupidest person on earth, like Trump, but he is incredibly anti science in every !@#$ing regard. And if this man does not see it that way....

Fourth: "Trump's coalition is diverse and not held together by much other than Trump itself"
Well, that's certainly an argument. I disagree because it's a religion in forming. Like saying once Christ dies the follows are finished.

If you don't understand how MAGA is so much bigger than Trump... go watch Newsmax. Go listen to and talk to some local MAGA zealots. They're not going away at the flick of a button or the death of a leader. They existed before Trump, they became defined by Trump, but they will exist LONG after him. It's almost like the man is pretending modern communication does not exist, and these people are not coaleced into an alt-reality organization. A Church of MAGA.

I am at odds with anyone who says MAGA is just going to vanish. MAGA is an instiution of our devolution. Of our destruction.

.......
Fifth: Re: Stagnation.
I suppose the interviewer is trying to get at why MAGA won. But Mr. Cowen did not catch the impetus of the question. So I will answer. MAGA found a foothold because Reaganomics stagnated the WEALTH of our working class. The ever growing GAP between Wages and GDP since the 1970s has left our people desperate for a greater slice of the pie, for a handout and some help up. MAGA gives false promise for how to achieve economic social progress.

Our people are hurting. That's how the lies took hold into the hearts of people. To balm their pain.

Sixth: "Will future Tech give us growth?"
After MAGA is through destroying the foundations of our Democracy, our civil rights, and our economics? Of trashing our standing in the world?
Ha... hahahaha....

As of Jan 20th, 2025, wealth from technilogical advancement is going to sail right past Americans. Maybe our newfound Oligarchs can reap some reward, but MAGA peasants will not. Any benefit of new tech is going to be soundly offset by our economic collapse and national isolation.

....
Seventh: "We'll just vote our way out of this"
Optimism for sure.
I just do not think this man understands MAGA. He does not know what it is or that Jan 6th is just the beginning.
I think it is key that they never mention Jan 6th. They do not comprehend political violence. They do not comprehend MAGA.

 

[Muse]

First statement: "The Courts do not like him"
Is Trump supposed to care about that?
Seems optimistic to think Courts still matter to MAGA.

Second: "too much freedom has been bad for us? No."
MAGA's freedom of propaganda has completely overwhelmed our Democratic institutions and corrupted civil service into serving a cult of personality, a person, an Emperor.

That an alt-reality exists... started with "fake news" and RAPIDLY moved to "fake election, fake Democracy". Directly caused Jan 6th. Their freedom to radicalize and form a coup attempt is bad. That was child's play compared to their next efforts. They will never allow themselves to peacefully lose another election. 2028 will be blood unless MAGA wins. Because we allow them to organize for vitriol and delusion. It only has ONE destination.

And if anyone disagrees with that assessment then I tell you... watch and find out. Jan 6th was just the beginning for them. A cult of alt-reality does not get better.

....
Third: "Populism is a rejection of experts.... but JD Vance...."
Wait.. is this clown telling us JD Vance is an expert. A scientifically sound mind?
WTF. You have got to be kidding.

Granted, he's no Trump. But he's on that ride, and much of what I have heard from Vance fits MAGA to a T. Fully engaged in the alt-reality and the cult of personality. He may not be the singularly stupidest person on earth, like Trump, but he is incredibly anti science in every !@#$ing regard. And if this man does not see it that way....

Fourth: "Trump's coalition is diverse and not held together by much other than Trump itself"
Well, that's certainly an argument. I disagree because it's a religion in forming. Like saying once Christ dies the follows are finished.

If you don't understand how MAGA is so much bigger than Trump... go watch Newsmax. Go listen to and talk to some local MAGA zealots. They're not going away at the flick of a button or the death of a leader. They existed before Trump, they became defined by Trump, but they will exist LONG after him. It's almost like the man is pretending modern communication does not exist, and these people are not coaleced into an alt-reality organization. A Church of MAGA.

I am at odds with anyone who says MAGA is just going to vanish. MAGA is an instiution of our devolution. Of our destruction.

.......
Fifth: Re: Stagnation.
I suppose the interviewer is trying to get at why MAGA won. But Mr. Cowen did not catch the impetus of the question. So I will answer. MAGA found a foothold because Reaganomics stagnated the WEALTH of our working class. The ever growing GAP between Wages and GDP since the 1970s has left our people desperate for a greater slice of the pie, for a handout and some help up. MAGA gives false promise for how to achieve economic social progress.

Our people are hurting. That's how the lies took hold into the hearts of people. To balm their pain.

Sixth: "Will future Tech give us growth?"
After MAGA is through destroying the foundations of our Democracy, our civil rights, and our economics? Of trashing our standing in the world?
Ha... hahahaha....

As of Jan 20th, 2025, wealth from technilogical advancement is going to sail right past Americans. Maybe our newfound Oligarchs can reap some reward, but MAGA peasants will not. Any benefit of new tech is going to be soundly offset by our economic collapse and national isolation.

He's a lot more optimistic than you are, so am I. He doesn't think things will make a lot of sense for the next 4 years and I agree. He doesn't disagree with Trump on everything but he does say that all economists of any stamp think the tariffs are a terrible idea. It's a long interview, it goes all over the place. I like his take on things 85+% of the time. He says several times that we don't know what it will be like in 20 years, it will be much different from now and I figure he's right about that. He likes AI a lot but acknowledges that a lot depends on how it's used. He's quite optimistic that it can make life better for pretty much everybody.

He makes the point that the courts are not going to cave into Trump. They will rule against him a lot, is the idea. That does matter. He also makes the point that people dislike what Trump is doing, he's unpopular. You can say Trump doesn't care but he does. You can say he doesn't care what the courts think and do, but he will. Some in America are fine with a dictator but there will be a lot of resistance and Americans can be pretty feisty. Plus the midterms are coming in 26 and the way things are going the R's will lose the House handily. Even MAGA will turn on Trump significantly with what's coming this year.

 

[Jaskalas]

I knew after I first posted that I would regret not waiting until I had finished the video. Instead I edited it in as I watched and reacted.

To start, I was highly optimistic during Trump's first term. That, like Obama's election in 2008 (We rejected Bush and Iraq), Americans would be horrified and react with a sort of... gusto. Lending the opposition the strength we needed to actually oppose Republicans and help us move forward. That resulted in Biden having NO power in Congress. Four years of holding the bag while being blamed for everything he could not do. Where did that lead us? Right back to Trump and MAGA. Worse than ever.

Leading me to my 7th part. January 6, 2021. My optimism for the future plummeted when I realized that "fake news" leads to "fake elections". The alt-reality MAGA lives in has no limits. Economy is bad? Blame the federal reserve. Dealt with them? Blame migrants for "stealing" your money. So long as there is hate to sell, humans are buying. MAGA is the business of producing that hatred and that misdirection. That alt-reality where facts are meaningless. Agenda and cult of personality are everything to them.

When Trump falls, another will pick up the mantle.
Will they lose popularity, will they lose elections?

They're already working it so there will not be a free and fair election.
Also, they will never lose one peacefully. If Democrats win in 2028, an actual violent or military coup will likely follow. MAGA will not surrender power without a fight.

To me, optimism is thinking we can win that fight.
I do not know what to call it if someone thinks there will be no fight at all.

 

[Muse]

When Trump falls, another will pick up the mantle.
Will they lose popularity, will they lose elections?

Nobody will carry MAGA forward like Trump. I suppose someone will be all "you have it bad because" yada yada yada, which is very MAGA but how many will continue to buy that? 4 years of Trump on a horse lancing immigrants will have worn pretty thin and people will start to feel like shit thinking like that all the time. Hating other people makes you sour inside. 8 years of Trump won't make a lot of people grateful for what it's done for their standard of living. AI will have begun to permeate the culture and, like Cowen says in the interview, alt-reality will fade because AI won't buy it. But like he says, it depends some on how things develop. He said that AI is being resisted in the UK more than the USA.

 

[cytg111]

"Other countries are ripping the US off" - Inside Donalds brain.

*The richest country on earth* ... is getting ripped off by every other country on the planet.

How did the US come to be the richest country on the planet you might ask? Great question, open a history book.

You guys engineered this economic framework and we all chose to adapt it and work within it - and everyone prospered within it - with the US at the top. And now you are having fucking self induced seizures over being "ripped off" .. Tell me is the thief/ripper-off in the room with you now?

 

[Jaskalas]

AI will have begun to permeate the culture and, like Cowen says in the interview, alt-reality will fade because AI won't buy it.

AI does not exist.
What PR slapped the AI label on is machine learning, or... Large Language Models. It's like a souped up version of spell check or predictive spelling. It only knows what we feed into it. And he who controls the feed controls the quality and bias of the information in the LLM. The "AI" will EASILY have a political bias. If you think only smart people living in reality control this "AI", I invite you to learn about Elon Musk's efforts. Granted, his did absorb a lot of accurate information so far... but I am certain its answers are not politically correct and will face adjustments.

It is another sort of optimism to believe the machines and information feeds we build would somehow surpass and not reflect us, our tribes, and our alt-realities.

 

[Muse]

"Other countries are ripping the US off" - Inside Donalds brain.

*The richest country on earth* ... is getting ripped off by every other country on the planet.

How did the US come to be the richest country on the planet you might ask? Great question, open a history book.

You guys engineered this economic framework and we all chose to adapt it and work within it - and everyone prospered within it - with the US at the top. And now you are having fucking self induced seizures over being "ripped off" .. Tell me is the thief/ripper-off in the room with you now?

Cowen says (see OP linked interview) that Trump's tariffs are an "own goal" and the worst mistake in the country's history or something to that effect. Says it early on. Cowen noted that Trump talked about his infatuation with tariffs and his theory that the USA was being ripped off economically by other countries in an interview in 1987 with Oprah Winfrey.

"The measure of intelligence is the ability to change." — Albert Einstein

Trump is not intelligent enough to have laid his delusion concerning tariffs aside and here we are being strangled.

 

[Muse]

AI does not exist.
What PR slapped the AI label on is machine learning, or... Large Language Models. It's like a souped up version of spell check or predictive spelling. It only knows what we feed into it. And he who controls the feed controls the quality and bias of the information in the LLM. The "AI" will EASILY have a political bias. If you think only smart people living in reality control this "AI", I invite you to learn about Elon Musk's efforts. Granted, his did absorb a lot of accurate information so far... but I am certain its answers are not politically correct and will face adjustments.

It is another sort of optimism to believe the machines and information feeds we build would somehow surpass and not reflect us, our tribes, and our alt-realities.

Lies are lies. It doesn't take a lot of computing power to identify bad players and ideas that can't be supported by the relevant facts. Even the MSM today and repeatedly since Jan. 6 has explained on a daily basis that Trump's assertions of having been juked out of the 2020 election have no basis in fact. Myriad Republicans have said otherwise but they can't provide evidence. What do you think AI is gonna say? Any LLM that has the evidence is gonna say it "can't be supported by the evidence." It's also gonna say that economists are unanimous is saying that Trump's tariffs are disastrous for the USA.

If Musk has a version of AI that's biased I don't have to avail myself of it. If there are competing AI conduits, one can choose the ones one prefers. Will things play out like that? Maybe for a while, but long term not so much, I figure. Yes, there may be different takes and people will have to decide what suits them. Lies or truth. Believe what you want. It's always been like that. Hopefully, the good guys prevail.

 

[Jaskalas]

If Musk has a version of AI that's biased I don't have to avail myself of it. If there are competing AI conduits, one can choose the ones one prefers. Will things play out like that?

I just wanted to make sure we're not falling for the PR label and ascribing "thinking" or "intelligence" to current AI. There's nothing super smart and independent in existence. What we have created are really amazing parrots that are fed information and spits it back at us. So to that end, you recognize there might be different parrots saying different things. To which I ask... how will that help us, or dramatically change things politically?

Humans are tribal animals, and we'll have differences in our tribal tools. The Church of MAGA will write the gospel for its alt-reality and use a parrot to lure people in. Just as their media does today.

I am not sure what functional difference having these parrots, or "AI", will make socially. I suppose I can predict that people of certain tribes can better adhere to the teachings of their parrot. But ultimately it is still up to the people to choose who to believe in the first place. Democratic institutions or MAGA. And as of today MAGA is dismantling and shutting down science and technologies tied to our Democracy. In their election victory - they are tearing apart the very foundations of science.

If / when we ever get back into power, it takes a lot longer to rebuild (funding mechanism, staffing, training, development) research organizations. Shutting them down, scattering the team, and dismantling their resources is nearly the flick of a switch. Momentum is on the side of destruction. Maybe the damage is underestimated because no American has lived through the fall of a civilization before. The process and the consequences are not familiar to us and not at the forefront of our minds and our conversations.

Perhaps the optimism encountered here is born by simply not knowing the ground on which we now tread. And through this unfamiliar space - either optimism or pessimism could be missing the mark on how this truly plays out. I'll grant you that.

 

[hal2kilo]

AI does not exist.
What PR slapped the AI label on is machine learning, or... Large Language Models. It's like a souped up version of spell check or predictive spelling. It only knows what we feed into it. And he who controls the feed controls the quality and bias of the information in the LLM. The "AI" will EASILY have a political bias. If you think only smart people living in reality control this "AI", I invite you to learn about Elon Musk's efforts. Granted, his did absorb a lot of accurate information so far... but I am certain its answers are not politically correct and will face adjustments.

It is another sort of optimism to believe the machines and information feeds we build would somehow surpass and not reflect us, our tribes, and our alt-realities.

It's still GIGO.

 

[Muse]

It's still GIGO.

As a database developer/administrator who maintains his own self-developed personal information management system, I wholeheartedly agree.