Two questions about margin of error in polls.

[Ferocious]

I just saw a poll that had MOE of +/- 4%.

Bush 47%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%

1) Are the real numbers are +/- 4 of each of those numbers?
2) Could Nader could end up with zero or very close to zero votes...since 0% is well within MOE?

 

[Toasthead]

exactly..they are saying that the actual nubers may be any where from 4% less to 4% more than the poll shows...so it could end up like this:

Bush 51%
Kerry 41%
Nader 1% or 0%

OR
Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1% or 0%

Or anywhere in between...plus there are the 'undecideds' who will factor in.

So basically they are covering their a$$.. a poll with a error margin of 4% is pretty lame, especially when they are reporting the race this close.

 

[torpid]

I can't believe you are taking this so seriously. If you look at enough polls, you will realize that polls are scientifically inaccurate. I saw a poll that had it 51% bush with a MOE of 3%, and in another it was 47% bush.

 

[Ferocious]

Originally posted by: Toasthead
exactly..they are saying that the actual nubers may be any where from 4% less to 4% more than the poll shows...so it could end up like this:

Bush 51%
Kerry 41%
Nader 1% or 0%

OR
Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1% or 0%

Or anywhere in between...plus there are the 'undecideds' who will factor in.

So basically they are covering their a$$.. a poll with a error margin of 4% is pretty lame, especially when they are reporting the race this close.

But does it mean Nader could end up with 5%?

That is my main problem with the MOE.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Ferocious

Originally posted by: Toasthead
exactly..they are saying that the actual nubers may be any where from 4% less to 4% more than the poll shows...so it could end up like this:

Bush 51%
Kerry 41%
Nader 1% or 0%

OR
Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1% or 0%

Or anywhere in between...plus there are the 'undecideds' who will factor in.

So basically they are covering their a$$.. a poll with a error margin of 4% is pretty lame, especially when they are reporting the race this close.

But does it mean Nader could end up with 5%?

That is my main problem with the MOE.

It's pretty unlikely, the experts predict a worse showing than in 00' for Nader, lots of people feel they wasted their vote on him.

 

[Ferocious]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: Ferocious

Originally posted by: Toasthead
exactly..they are saying that the actual nubers may be any where from 4% less to 4% more than the poll shows...so it could end up like this:

Bush 51%
Kerry 41%
Nader 1% or 0%

OR
Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1% or 0%

Or anywhere in between...plus there are the 'undecideds' who will factor in.

So basically they are covering their a$$.. a poll with a error margin of 4% is pretty lame, especially when they are reporting the race this close.

But does it mean Nader could end up with 5%?

That is my main problem with the MOE.

It's pretty unlikely, the experts predict a worse showing than in 00' for Nader, lots of people feel they wasted their vote on him.

I don't for second believe Nader would get 5%.

My question is: Does the MOE tell us that this is reasonably possible? Doe the MOE applie equally to Bush as it does Badnarik, etc?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Ferocious

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: Ferocious

Originally posted by: Toasthead
exactly..they are saying that the actual nubers may be any where from 4% less to 4% more than the poll shows...so it could end up like this:

Bush 51%
Kerry 41%
Nader 1% or 0%

OR
Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1% or 0%

Or anywhere in between...plus there are the 'undecideds' who will factor in.

So basically they are covering their a$$.. a poll with a error margin of 4% is pretty lame, especially when they are reporting the race this close.

But does it mean Nader could end up with 5%?

That is my main problem with the MOE.

It's pretty unlikely, the experts predict a worse showing than in 00' for Nader, lots of people feel they wasted their vote on him.

I don't for second believe Nader would get 5%.

My question is: Does the MOE tell us that this is reasonably possible? Doe the MOE applie equally to Bush as it does Badnarik, etc?

I suspect they would argue a 5% MOE in the numbers for each candidate, evaluating numbers for the candidate alone.

<---has dropped statistics 2X now, &amp; am admittedly a dunce.