Turtle Taking Credit for Economic Recovery

[Doc Savage Fan]

No, but Mitchell is implying it.

Yep. Your point?

 

[dank69]

Yep. Your point?

The same point I've made all along.

 

[theeedude]

Haha, good one, turtle boy.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

The same point I've made all along.

It's entirely within the realm of possibility that the expectations that Republicans were going to win control of Congress during the 4th quarter affected economic expectations during this period as well. We don't know whether or not this occurred or, if it did occur, we currently have no way quantifying how much it may have impacted the 4th quarter numbers. Like I said before...expectations have a significant impact on our economy. It's not outside the realm of possibility that the expected election results did indeed impact the numbers to some degree during the 4th quarter. There is ongoing debate among economic experts on this subject as noted in the paper I previously posted.

 

[theeedude]

Yes, the whole country was waiting for GOP to win Congress, to restore the prosperity they brought to the country last time they were in control

 

[dank69]

It's entirely within the realm of possibility ...

Nope

 

[fskimospy]

It's entirely within the realm of possibility that the expectations that Republicans were going to win control of Congress during the 4th quarter affected economic expectations during this period as well. We don't know whether or not this occurred or, if it did occur, we currently have no way quantifying how much it may have impacted the 4th quarter numbers. Like I said before...expectations have a significant impact on our economy. It's not outside the realm of possibility that the expected election results did indeed impact the numbers to some degree during the 4th quarter. There is ongoing debate among economic experts on this subject as noted in the paper I previously posted.

A meteor hitting the earth tomorrow and destroying it is within the realm of possibility. There is no evidence that I am aware of that would point to evidence of a party taking over one chamber of Congress leading to improved economic growth due to changed expectations on the part of the population.

So no, we will put that in the 'unproven bullshit' pile until actual evidence is supplied.

At least you're admitting that's what he was trying to insinuate at this point though, credit for economic improvement.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Nope

As I've shown, many economists think otherwise. What is the basis for your opinion? Gut feeling?

 

[fskimospy]

As I've shown, many economists think otherwise. What is the basis for your opinion? Gut feeling?

What you have shown:

The researchers caution that the sign of partisan effects on equity prices and economic well being need not be the same. Furthermore, their analysis captures traders' expectations of partisan effects, not the parties' actual effects on economic outcomes.

This provides exactly zero evidence for the impact of a party's election on economic performance.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

What you have shown:



This provides exactly zero evidence for the impact of a party's election on economic performance.

Some economists say that there is evidence that this occurs.

Snowberg, Wolfers, and Zitzewitz conclude that changes in the perceived probability of electing a Republican president caused changes in expected bond yields, equity returns, and oil prices. The authors conjecture that the 2-3 percent jump in equity prices accompanying a Bush victory could be attributable to expectations of capital receiving favored treatment over labor, of existing firms receiving favorable treatment over potential entrants, or of general economic expansion under the Bush administration.

 

[Lash444]

Until you guys can prove that this Butterfly Effect didn't turn around the economy, I am going to accept that what DSF said is true. Either that or aliens.

The economy was steadily worsening while that virtual caterpillar was growing, but the moment that great boot of the GOP squashed it by taking over Congress, the seas parted and the sky cleared.

Hurray for America.

 

[fskimospy]

Some economists say that there is evidence that this occurs.

No.

Snowberg, Wolfers, and Zitzewitz conclude that changes in the perceived probability of electing a Republican president caused changes in expected bond yields, equity returns, and oil prices. The authors conjecture that the 2-3 percent jump in equity prices accompanying a Bush victory could be attributable to expectations of capital receiving favored treatment over labor, of existing firms receiving favorable treatment over potential entrants, or of general economic expansion under the Bush administration.

The researchers caution that the sign of partisan effects on equity prices and economic well being need not be the same. Furthermore, their analysis captures traders' expectations of partisan effects, not the parties' actual effects on economic outcomes.

 

[soulcougher73]

Never underestimate the mental hoops someone will jump through to believe what they want to believe.

You a psychic on DSF?

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

No.

Yes. If expectations can influence equity prices they can also affect hiring, capital investment, and other areas that broadly affect our economy.

 

[fskimospy]

Yes.

This is ironic coming from someone who complained about others' lack of reading comprehension earlier.

 

[tracerbullet]

So, there's at least one person here saying he didn't "directly attribute" the 2 things... he did speculate it, and he did imply it, but he didn't directly attribute it. And that's a big difference. And further that if had done so, he'd actually be right?

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

This is ironic coming from someone who complained about others' lack of reading comprehension earlier.

In addition to the above, higher equity prices also directly stimulates consumer spending which represents about 70% of our economic activity.

 

[ivwshane]

He was clearly speculating and noting a coincidence...he never stated that the recovery was due to the Republicans taking control of Congress as stated by the OP.

You've become an embarrassment. You've raised the level of self ownage to a new historical level. Sadly, it is no longer funny, so just stop.

 

[soundforbjt]

You've become an embarrassment. You've raised the level of self ownage to a new historical level. Sadly, it is no longer funny, so just stop.

Maybe he's auditioning for the Huckster's gig @ Fox.

 

[ivwshane]

I'm pretty sure he is just trying to establish a narrative for the future. You start claiming constantly now that you are responsible for the economic recovery, even though it started well before you were in office or even won an election.

Sure people mock you now for saying something so dumb, but conservatives will buy into it. Then you hope to establish a counter narrative for 2016 where democrats can't take credit for the economy.

Doesn't change the fact that what he said here is comically stupid.

And really can you blame them? This is what happens when dems don't bother running on their record. If the dems don't want to take credit for the turn around then the republicans will.

 

[fskimospy]

In addition to the above, higher equity prices also directly stimulates consumer spending which represents about 70% of our economic activity.

You're now trying to tie in other studies without controlling for common measurements, etc, and despite the fact that the study you mentioned explicitly disavowed the connection you're trying to make.

So no.

Seriously.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

You're now trying to tie in other studies without controlling for common measurements, etc, and despite the fact that the study you mentioned explicitly disavowed the connection you're trying to make.

So no.

Seriously.

The paper cautioned (not disavowed) the connection because it was beyond the scope the study. The original study I cited indicated that election result expectations can affect equity prices...and, as I'm sure you know, many other studies clearly show how changes in equity prices directly impacts consumer spending. I'm only arguing that it's not outside the realm of possibility that there may have been some impact...although I'll freely concede that if this occurred, it was most likely relatively negligible in the scheme of things.

I find this stuff interesting...but not near as fun as watching so many get their panties in a bunch over McConnell's little jab.

 

[HomerJS]

Yes, the whole country was waiting for GOP to win Congress, to restore the prosperity they brought to the country last time they were in control

Epic +1

 

[fskimospy]

The paper cautioned (not disavowed) the connection because it was beyond the scope the study. The original study I cited indicated that election result expectations can affect equity prices...and, as I'm sure you know, many other studies clearly show how changes in equity prices directly impacts consumer spending. I'm only arguing that it's not outside the realm of possibility that there may have been some impact...although I'll freely concede that if this occurred, it was most likely relatively negligible in the scheme of things.

I find this stuff interesting...but not near as fun as watching so many get their panties in a bunch over McConnell's little jab.

It is interesting, but you're running into dangerous territory there. For example, the long term performance of the S&P500 is better under Democratic leadership than Republican leadership. Small, short-term equity changes are extremely unlikely to translate into improved economic growth in such a small time period, and once you expand the time horizon there is little reason to think such a correlation would hold up.

It's also generally a no-no to cite someone's paper in support of a conclusion that the paper's authors specifically say you shouldn't make from their paper.

 

[chowderhead]

faith based economy. Look, these Republicans are not scientists or economists or doctors so who is to say global cooling or the economy or whatever can't be because of the Republicans taking over right now. I mean 40% believed we found WMDs in Iraq.