TSMC investments and expansion 2021

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moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
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Since TSMC is currently a crucial bottleneck for the industry I think this deserves an own thread.


Notable passed resolutions:

4. Approved capital appropriations of approximately US$11,794.8 million (approximately NT$324,293.27 million) for purposes including: 1) Fab construction, and installation of fab facility systems; 2) Installation and upgrade of advanced technology capacity; 3) Installation of mature and specialty technology capacity; 4) Installation and upgrade of advanced packaging capacity; 5) Second quarter 2021 R&D capital investments and sustaining capital expenditures.

5. Approved the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Japan to expand our 3DIC material research, with a paid-in capital of not more than ¥18.6 billion (approximately US$186 million).

6. Approved the issuance of unsecured corporate bonds in the domestic market for an amount not to exceed NT$120 billion (approximately US$4.4 billion), and the provision of a guarantee to TSMC Global, a wholly-owned foreign subsidiary of TSMC, for its issuance of US dollar-denominated senior unsecured corporate bonds for an amount not to exceed US$4.5 billion, to finance TSMC’s capacity expansion and/or pollution prevention related expenditures.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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This is really interesting, do we know what these decisions are based on? Like if 28/16 turned out to be more durable or have lower error rates than 20 or anything like that?

I think they decide well ahead of time - the customers who want to choose these processes for long life would need to know up front when deciding what nodes to target.
 

Doug S

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Feb 8, 2020
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4 nm production starts in Q4 and Apple has bought the initial supply. Could be for 2022 Macs.

Apple is using N5P for the 2021 iPhone.

Interesting, I didn't expect them to use a half node. Maybe has to do with timing of when they want the Macs containing them to be introduced?
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
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Interesting, I didn't expect them to use a half node. Maybe has to do with timing of when they want the Macs containing them to be introduced?
My impression is that if TSMC is able to offer a new process node (half node or not) in time and at the quantity required for a launch, Apple will use it. I can only guess that N7+ failed at that, which is why first Apple (with A12 and A13) and then AMD (with Zen 2 and 3) made use of N7 twice which was uncharacteristical for both of them.
 

Doug S

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Feb 8, 2020
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My impression is that if TSMC is able to offer a new process node (half node or not) in time and at the quantity required for a launch, Apple will use it. I can only guess that N7+ failed at that, which is why first Apple (with A12 and A13) and then AMD (with Zen 2 and 3) made use of N7 twice which was uncharacteristical for both of them.

Apple used N7P for A13, they didn't use N7 twice - just like the use of N5P for the A15 isn't using N5 twice. So basically they didn't need N7+ and perhaps also didn't want to take the risk of using the first EUV based process (for a few layers) at the time they had to make the call on what process to tape out for.

The use of N4 is interesting but Macs are an order of magnitude lower volume product than phones/tablets - especially if this is not a 4+4 design like M1 but something targeted at higher end Macs which have a volume that's less than TWO orders of magnitude smaller than the phone+tablet volume. It will be interesting to see what actually ends up getting made on N4. I'll bet it it not a 4+4 "M2" product unless that forms the basis for a "chiplet" design that scales up to the Mac Pro.

My money's on them not being confident of hitting the Mac Pro's planned launch of June 2022's WWDC using N3, so they took the best available process that they knew could hit that target. While I suppose the Mac userbase wouldn't care too much if it was announced in June but didn't ship until September, maybe Apple feels they've screwed the Mac Pro people too much already the last few years with launch delays and don't want it to make it happen again.
 

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
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My impression is that if TSMC is able to offer a new process node (half node or not) in time and at the quantity required for a launch, Apple will use it. I can only guess that N7+ failed at that, which is why first Apple (with A12 and A13) and then AMD (with Zen 2 and 3) made use of N7 twice which was uncharacteristical for both of them.
N7+ would require a redesign of the chips and that would not be worth it since the increase in performance/density isn't that large.

Meanwhile, the N7+ process is expected to deliver a 20% increase in density, a 10% increase in performance, or alternatively a 15% power decrease. Although these improvements are slightly larger than what N7P offers, they also come with the cost of a new physical re-implementation and new EUV masks. The N7P process has already entered mass production in the last quarter (Q2 2019).
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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@Racan

Intel has decent capacity. The problem they have is with process R&D. They spent a lot of time spinning their wheels on 10nm. If 10nm had worked better and had they switched more fabs over to that process, there wouldn't be as big of an issue - or potentially no issue at all. Building more fabs won't help Intel reinforce their IDM model. Fixing their nodes will.
 

EVI

Junior Member
Apr 20, 2020
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TSMC to Spend $100 Billion Over Three Years to Grow Capacity - Bloomberg

ENVISIONED OUTLAYWHEN/WHAT
TSMC$100 billionOver three years to expand capacity
Intel$20 billionTo build two new fabs in Arizona
Samsung$116 billionOver a decade to expand foundry business

And Intel is going to catch up to TSMC?

This is a bit apples to oranges in comparing the numbers listed in this table. A more accurate representation is the following:

TSMC is spending $100B in capex over next three years, split something like $25B/$35B/$40B, all pure play foundry. Quick Edit: It looks like its not clear whether TSMC $100B is capex or capex plus R&D. Assuming some portion to R&D, the low end of TSMC capex would then be about $29B-$30B per year over the next three years.

Intel is spending $20B on two fabs for just its new foundry business, IFS. They are spending $20B in 2021 capex for its existing fab footprint. Future Intel capex will probably be high teens billions per year with the $20B in IFS spread over 3 years. I'd guess base-line capex will be $20B/$25B/$25B. This is all Logic and Foundry since Intel's NAND business will be at SK Hynix

Samsung's $116B foundry spending is not all capex as 55% is R&D expenses and 45% is capex for actual fabs. So Samsung foundry capex is $52B but that number is the guide for total aggregate spending from 2020-2030. So yearly capex from Samsung for Foundry is something closer to $5.2B per year over the next few years.

If anything, I'd say the read-through is that INTC has put forth a sizable spending gauntlet vs TSMC and TSMC is saying they will answer in kind. If I were Samsung, I'd be thinking about how much more spending needs to be done to remain competitive at leading edge foundry.
 
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Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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That capacity expansion would be as expected since they are bringing N5P mass production online right about now.

Being 30K more than they were originally shooting for is interesting. Presumably they would need more EUV equipment to make that happen, so where did it come from? Perhaps the rumors are true that Intel traded some ASML equipment orders so that TSMC could get more EUV scanners as part of a deal for Intel to get the additional TSMC wafer capacity that opened up?

Its either that, or they "borrowed" from their N3 line either because they knew they would be able to get equipment to replace it before N3 entered mass production or they foresee more customer demand at 5nm than 3nm so reducing their 3nm capacity made sense.
 

lightmanek

Senior member
Feb 19, 2017
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Yesterday I could have crashed into a lorry carrying two huge containers with ASML logos and X10004 or X10040 markings and add to semiconductor shortages :p. I was driving through Holland towards Brussels when I spotted and overtaken this marvel of human ingenuity on a truck. Containers were very custom and shaped around content inside.
 

DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
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Yesterday I could have crashed into a lorry carrying two huge containers with ASML logos and X10004 or X10040 markings and add to semiconductor shortages :p. I was driving through Holland towards Brussels when I spotted and overtaken this marvel of human ingenuity on a truck. Containers were very custom and shaped around content inside.
Thankfully a crash avoided, otherwise some forum dwellers will not be getting their 7950X on time.
 
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Roland00Address

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Dec 17, 2008
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4 nm production starts in Q4 and Apple has bought the initial supply. Could be for 2022 Macs.

Apple is using N5P for the 2021 iPhone.

So this is a month and a half old but I did not see it then.

If it is not being used for iPhone silicon, (double check my logic please of what I am about to say) it is likely a small investment chip for iPads and Macbook airs with a small die size to "test this new foundry process" ? They would not make the larger chips like Macbook Pros or iMac Pros on a new process they never done silicon on? Right?
 
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scannall

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Jan 1, 2012
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So this is a month and a half old but I did not see it then.

If it is not being used for iPhone silicon, (double check my logic please of what I am about to say) it is likely a small investment chip for iPads and Macbook airs with a small die size to "test this new foundry process" ? They would not make the larger chips like Macbook Pros or iMac Pros on a new process they never done silicon on? Right?
Hard to tell. With Apple you never know until they do it. And we don't know what their discussions with TSMC are, what yields are or basically anything. As is often the case with Apple, just wait and see. They know where they are going, but like it to be a surprise. ;)
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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So this is a month and a half old but I did not see it then.

If it is not being used for iPhone silicon, (double check my logic please of what I am about to say) it is likely a small investment chip for iPads and Macbook airs with a small die size to "test this new foundry process" ? They would not make the larger chips like Macbook Pros or iMac Pros on a new process they never done silicon on? Right?


N4 is not a "new process they've never done silicon on". Or at least it isn't any more new than N5P is new versus N5. In Intel terms, N5P is N5+ and N4 is N5++. N5P provides a (small) performance/power bump, but no shrink, N4 provides both a bump and a (small) shrink.

The latest info claims that N4 will enter mass production in Q4 this year, only ~6 months or so after N5P, and at least 6 months ahead of N3. Using N4 is about the timing of the product that uses the chips made on N4. Next year's iPad Pro? Could be, N4 would be perfect for its typical spring launch. The long awaited ARM Mac Pro? Perhaps.

If they are going the monolithic route for the Mac Pro it would make a lot of sense to use a mature N5 variant like N4 that should yield very well. If they are going the chiplet route they could use N3, but they may not want to wait long enough for that. They may be planning on a splashy intro at the June 2022 developer conference, and if they want to say "it will begin shipping immediately" N3 is not an option. If they want to design it not for lowest power like the A14/M1 but use the 'high performance' process variant like AMD does they need a more mature process like N4.
 

moinmoin

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Jun 1, 2017
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Worth mentioning here:

"In 4Q20 the N6 node only accounted for 15% of the whole 7nm family manufacturing capacity, while this is expected to reach 48-50% one year later by 4Q21."

On N5: "For the full year of 2021, TSMC expects to rapidly double on their 2020 wafer capacity, and further increasing that by 75% in 2022. By 2023 the company forecasts a quadrupling of the 2020 capacity"
"TSMC’s N5 ramp is going extremely well, and (...) has reached better yields than the 7nm family process technology nodes ever have."

"Although TSMC “only” has 50% of the worldwide EUV machine install base, the company actually represents 65% share of the cumulative shipped EUV wafers"
 
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moinmoin

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The prolonged dry spell with serious water shortage Taiwan suffered on is certainly one news that we missed in this thread, now they are getting the rain season they wished for. :grinning: