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Trump still has an absolute grip on the Repub party 6months after his Pres re-election lost, but Repub data shows unfavorable voter view in key states

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
27,194
1,305
126

Because of Trump, Repub controlled states are passing voter restriction laws.
And Repubs are squelching any internal dissent against Trump.
ie: removing Liz Cheney as the #3 Repub in the House

That has left Republicans convinced that they must display unwavering fealty to a departed president to retain the voters he won over.

“We’ve just gotten so far afield from any sane construction,” said Barbara Comstock, a longtime Repub party official who was swept out of her suburban Virginia congressional seat in the 2018 midterm backlash to Mr. Trump.
“It’s a real sickness that is infecting the party at every level. We’re just going to say that black is white now.”

A CNN poll released last week found that nearly a third of Americans, including 70 percent of Republicans, said Mr. Biden had not legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency. :eek:

But Repub internal data reveal that voters in “core districts” have unfavorable views of Trump:

The Republican Party might be high on Donald Trump, but key voters are not, The Washington Post reported Saturday.


oh yeah.. Trump's racial divisiveness and wacko conspiracy theories have alienated suburban swing voters.
That helped the Dems flip suburban swing districts in 2018.
And it should help them in 2022 and hopefully buck the trend that the opposing party wins more in mid-term elections
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
16,411
6,278
136
If they are gonna do at least semi well midterms, they need Trump 1. on the rally train and 2. to bring his a game aka. not ramble in incoherent directions, stay on script.

To get to there, they need to PAY him.

I cant figure out if this is a blessing for the dems or a real threat vector still.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
28,251
3,685
126
If they are gonna do at least semi well midterms, they need Trump 1. on the rally train and 2. to bring his a game aka. not ramble in incoherent directions, stay on script.

To get to there, they need to PAY him.

I cant figure out if this is a blessing for the dems or a real threat vector still.
I'm not going to rest easy until 2022 elections are over. Until then, it needs to be treated with the same level of urgency as 2020.
 

Amol S.

Golden Member
Mar 14, 2015
1,017
183
106
2022 Senate is not an issue. Even with tbe Democrats loosing either 2 or 3 seats, they still have a chance to keep the house. From what I know, there have been very few key swing states that have enacted their proposed new voting laws. Majority of those states still have the law going thru legislature, still in planning phase, or will get vetoed by the current Democrat governor.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
16,311
3,973
136
With the census done, new voting laws,and re-districting to come, republicans don’t need to do much to take the House, it’s basically a done deal.
 
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Amol S.

Golden Member
Mar 14, 2015
1,017
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With the census done, new voting laws,and re-districting to come, republicans don’t need to do much to take the House, it’s basically a done deal.
It's not, belive me. Even though Colorado is getting a house, even if it did not there would have been a house flip in Colorado. More and more counties in Colorado are starting to lean blue. Even with the restrictive voting laws, the house seats in Georgia are going to stay the same. Only one house seat in Georgia flipped blue, the rest were blue for a very long time. Even with gerrymandering the outcome of tbe house election in Georgia is probably going to stay the same.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
16,311
3,973
136
It's not, belive me. Even though Colorado is getting a house, even if it did not there would have been a house flip in Colorado. More and more counties in Colorado are starting to lean blue. Even with the restrictive voting laws, the house seats in Georgia are going to stay the same. Only one house seat in Georgia flipped blue, the rest were blue for a very long time. Even with gerrymandering the outcome of tbe house election in Georgia is probably going to stay the same.
California, and Illinois both lost seats, Texas will gain seats from redistricting. Won’t take much for the republicans to take the House.
 
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Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,834
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With the census done, new voting laws,and re-districting to come, republicans don’t need to do much to take the House, it’s basically a done deal.
Yep shrink 5 dem districts in FL, TX, 3 in GA, NC, PA and 1 in KS.. +20 right there.
 
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ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
33,306
12,102
146
I'm not going to rest easy until 2022 elections are over. Until then, it needs to be treated with the same level of urgency as 2020.
Every election should be treated like that by the Dem's, it's will stop the facist rise of a faux populist party but only if the D's can win and change things for the American people. Right now, R's are still squeezing tighter and Dems aren't changing it.
 
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Stokely

Senior member
Jun 5, 2017
938
857
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It's not like Trump has ever said anything different from what the GOP of the last couple decades has said. He's just more loud and crass about it, which of course all the Evangelicals and rural voters love. I mean, who doesn't hold a lying, immoral fraudulent NYC shyster in high regard? Salt of the earth!
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
5,247
4,970
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If Trump runs for President in 2024, he is all but certain to be the Republican nominee. He would steamroll over a Larry Hogan or other “never Trump” candidate. He will have no serious primary opposition. Zip. Zero. Nada. Every Republican with Presidential ambitions will be falling all over themselves to lick Trump’s ass in hopes of being his Vice-Presidential nominee. Pence is obviously done, and hopefuls like Cruz, Hawley and DeSantis are young enough that they can afford to wait four years to then run as Trump’s heir apparent.

Now ..Trump running and winning the general in 2024 is an entirely different question. The GOP’s problem is that nobody drives Democratic turnout like Trump. And national demographics will have slipped several more points away from him by 2024, to the point where the gap may be too great for red state legislatures to overcome with their planned ratfuckery. His crybaby antics cost the Republicans two Georgia Senate seats.

Can he hang onto his cult? When the Republicans had power it was easy…his base loved to win, loved to stomp and vanquish their enemies. Now they’ve had to switch to being the aggrieved victims of the RADICAL SOCIALIST LEFT!, and I’m not sure his sore loser schtick is going to hold the audience for the next three years.

Republican campaigns are primarily about the grift, the enrichment of the cronies and consultants and random hangers on. And they have to keep this grift going for the next four years, four years of convincing their cult that only their money is the only thing fending off the RADICAL SOCIALIST LEFT!

How many more voters can he dig up? How many people that voted against him in 2020 would vote for him in 2024? And, perhaps most importantly, how far can the GOP rig the vote to get him in. Factoring in various demographic changes, I see no reason to expect that he wouldn’t lose the 2024 popular vote by at least the same amount, and it could be quite a bit more. The GOP needs to face it. Trump is a loser. Trump will hint at running for the next three years so he can continue to fleece his supporters. All he knows is a con-job. I expect his fleecing to ramp up over the next few years, he will steal what he can, say the system is rigged and not run for office.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,834
2,348
136
If Trump runs for President in 2024, he is all but certain to be the Republican nominee. He would steamroll over a Larry Hogan or other “never Trump” candidate. He will have no serious primary opposition. Zip. Zero. Nada. Every Republican with Presidential ambitions will be falling all over themselves to lick Trump’s ass in hopes of being his Vice-Presidential nominee. Pence is obviously done, and hopefuls like Cruz, Hawley and DeSantis are young enough that they can afford to wait four years to then run as Trump’s heir apparent.

Now ..Trump running and winning the general in 2024 is an entirely different question. The GOP’s problem is that nobody drives Democratic turnout like Trump. And national demographics will have slipped several more points away from him by 2024, to the point where the gap may be too great for red state legislatures to overcome with their planned ratfuckery. His crybaby antics cost the Republicans two Georgia Senate seats.

Can he hang onto his cult? When the Republicans had power it was easy…his base loved to win, loved to stomp and vanquish their enemies. Now they’ve had to switch to being the aggrieved victims of the RADICAL SOCIALIST LEFT!, and I’m not sure his sore loser schtick is going to hold the audience for the next three years.

Republican campaigns are primarily about the grift, the enrichment of the cronies and consultants and random hangers on. And they have to keep this grift going for the next four years, four years of convincing their cult that only their money is the only thing fending off the RADICAL SOCIALIST LEFT!

How many more voters can he dig up? How many people that voted against him in 2020 would vote for him in 2024? And, perhaps most importantly, how far can the GOP rig the vote to get him in. Factoring in various demographic changes, I see no reason to expect that he wouldn’t lose the 2024 popular vote by at least the same amount, and it could be quite a bit more. The GOP needs to face it. Trump is a loser. Trump will hint at running for the next three years so he can continue to fleece his supporters. All he knows is a con-job. I expect his fleecing to ramp up over the next few years, he will steal what he can, say the system is rigged and not run for office.
You're assuming he doesn't call another 2024 loss a big lie and then the House which is controlled by GOP gerry mandering doesn't hand him the election as they can.

You expect them to be fair and ignore the chance of fucking over America and appointing more right wing scotus seats? They'll hand it to him despite the will of the people.

Oh will of the people.. have you seen red states undoing the will of the people in regards to teacher pay, marijuana legislation and other things.

So don't for 1 second assume 2024 is safe. The house saved Biden's ass this time.. but all bets are off with 2024.
 

mect

Platinum Member
Jan 5, 2004
2,276
1,354
136
Yep shrink 5 dem districts in FL, TX, 3 in GA, NC, PA and 1 in KS.. +20 right there.
This is why democrats need to gerrymander the shit out of blue state house districts. Republicans have taken the one body of government that is supposed to give representation based on actual population and found a path to minority rule even in the house. It wasn't enough for them to be able to control the presidency and senate without winning the popular vote, they want it all.
 

Amol S.

Golden Member
Mar 14, 2015
1,017
183
106
You're assuming he doesn't call another 2024 loss a big lie and then the House which is controlled by GOP gerry mandering doesn't hand him the election as they can.

You expect them to be fair and ignore the chance of fucking over America and appointing more right wing scotus seats? They'll hand it to him despite the will of the people.

Oh will of the people.. have you seen red states undoing the will of the people in regards to teacher pay, marijuana legislation and other things.

So don't for 1 second assume 2024 is safe. The house saved Biden's ass this time.. but all bets are off with 2024.
I am not sure if you know or not, in order for a states election vote to be thrown out, it needs to be agreed upon that there was a problem in both chambers of Congress. Even if Democrats loose the house, the Democrats actually have a high chance of keeping the Senate.
 

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