Trump falsely claims US murder rate is 'highest' in 47 years

[sdifox]

Sounds like your safe space is being encroached on, better go back to your bunker and hunker down.

he might be shopping for one. I can help

http://www.missilebases.com/

 

[momeNt]

The best indicator of murder rate is to look at the lead levels.

Until a President wants to engage in soil remediation of lead laden cities, sending "The Feds" won't really do anything to address the issue.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

The best indicator of murder rate is to look at the lead levels.

Until a President wants to engage in soil remediation of lead laden cities, sending "The Feds" won't really do anything to address the issue.

Was this ever proven scientifically? Or could it be a correlation factor, alongside population density (both lead concentration and murder rates may be attributable to this).

No criticisms, just curious.

 

[momeNt]

Was this ever proven scientifically? Or could it be a correlation factor, alongside population density (both lead concentration and murder rates may be attributable to this).

No criticisms, just curious.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lead-crime_hypothesis

Don't think it can be proven scientifically at this point, at least not ethically, it would just be observational data and crime numbers correlating more strongly than other theories. Most every other theory has pretty gaping holes in it.

 

[PokerGuy]

Sorry, I can't get over the hilarity of this. Here is the American Enterprise Institute, pro gun ownership, pro Second Amendment and pro Donald Trump, arguing exactly what I just said, that murder went down while gun ownership went up:

http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/

Oops, their man just removed the key factual premise from their argument and turned it on its head. Il Duce has spoken: murder is RAMPANT in the US. Time for more gun control!

Trump is wrong about the overall murder rate of course (it's nowhere near the highest in 47 years), but murder rates are skyrocketing. In fact, 2015 saw the biggest increase in at least 25 years, and 2016 numbers are likely to be another similar increase over those high 2015 numbers. The increases seem to be concentrated in a relatively small number of big cities (Chicago, Baltimore, Memphis, Oakland, Cleveland etc) and many are also in places that have much stricter gun control laws than other places.

This article provides some interesting information on it.

So yes, Trump is wrong regarding the highest rate in 47 years, but he's right that the rate is skyrocketing.

 

[brandonbull]

I thought it was the biggest increase in the last 47 years. He said rate instead of increase and is getting destroyed over it. There is more outrage over his statement than the actual fact of an increase in murders.

Some people will say alt-facts and other will say he misspoke. Where should the outrage be directed?

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

These kinds of lies are incredibly disturbing and strike to the heart of his stupidity and complete disregard for honesty. Next thing you know he be saying there's 57 States! /s

 

[PokerGuy]

I thought it was the biggest increase in the last 47 years. He said rate instead of increase and is getting destroyed over it. There is more outrage over his statement than the actual fact of an increase in murders.

Some people will say alt-facts and other will say he misspoke. Where should the outrage be directed?

Yep, lets focus on him saying the rate was the highest instead of the rate of increase over the past couple of years is the highest, and lets ignore the actual skyrocketing murder rates that had previously been on the decline for a long time. /s

 

[bshole]

Yep, lets focus on him saying the rate was the highest instead of the rate of increase over the past couple of years is the highest, and lets ignore the actual skyrocketing murder rates that had previously been on the decline for a long time. /s

Yea I live in Milwaukee and it is murder central. I can't wait until my kids get out of school and I can move someplace safer.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

I thought it was the biggest increase in the last 47 years. He said rate instead of increase and is getting destroyed over it. There is more outrage over his statement than the actual fact of an increase in murders.

Some people will say alt-facts and other will say he misspoke. Where should the outrage be directed?

For today's "critical thinkers" there's nothing too trite or insignificant that warrants anything less than incessant derision and full-blown outrage. It would be comical if it wasn't so damn pathetic.

 

[fskimospy]

Yep, lets focus on him saying the rate was the highest instead of the rate of increase over the past couple of years is the highest, and lets ignore the actual skyrocketing murder rates that had previously been on the decline for a long time. /s

Nope, that's false too.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ald-trump-wrong-murder-rate-highest-47-years/

First, the rate didn't increase for the past couple of years, it was flat the year before last and then higher last year. Murder rates did definitely increase last year, but that 'skyrocket' took us all the way back up to slightly lower than the murder rate for 2009, a year we all remember as basically being one 365 day long reenactment of that shitty movie 'The Purge', amirite? In addition, the decline in murder rates from the 90's to present wasn't one smooth decline that this suddenly ended, it was populated with numerous multi-year increases in murder rate.

What Trump said was moronic. Even if he did mean it was the highest rate of increase in 47 years that's an incredibly misleading way to put it when our murder rate is at historic lows like it is right now. Even modest increases in murders in raw numbers will equal large changes in the rate of increase when your denominator is as low as it is now. So which one is it, team stupid or team liar? I'm excited to see which you choose!

 

[fskimospy]

These kinds of lies are incredibly disturbing and strike to the heart of his stupidity and complete disregard for honesty. Next thing you know he be saying there's 57 States! /s

If Obama had made the idea that there were 57 states one of the centerpieces of his campaign the way Trump made lies about the crime rate one of the centerpieces of his campaign you might have a point. Trying to equate those two things is very, very dishonest of you.

 

[Homerboy]

Yea I live in Milwaukee and it is murder central. I can't wait until my kids get out of school and I can move someplace safer.

Hey man, we're 10th best in the nation! 2nd in the Midwest!
What's funny is I still feel incredibly safe here and yes, I do go to some shady-ass spots.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

If Obama had made the idea that there were 57 states one of the centerpieces of his campaign the way Trump made lies about the crime rate one of the centerpieces of his campaign you might have a point. Trying to equate those two things is very, very dishonest of you.

Says the guy who's about as intellectually dishonest as they come. Trump was likely referring to the rate of rise of crime in cities, not the entire country per se. But by all means nail him to the cross over this non-issue like the pathetic little hack you are.

Donald Trump largely accurate that U.S. had biggest increase in murders in 45 years
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...claims-us-has-biggest-increase-murders-45-ye/

Our ruling

Trump said, "We have an increase in murder within our cities, the biggest in 45 years."

The number of murders nationally did rise by the biggest amount in 45 years, and criminologists agree that this is a development worth paying attention to. But they add that it comes after a steep, quarter-century decline, which suggests that it is not yet a cause for panic.

The statement is accurate but needs clarification and additional information. We rate it Mostly True.​

 

[ElFenix]

Says the guy who's about as intellectually dishonest as they come. Trump likely meant to say the rate of rise of crime in cities, not the entire country. But by all means nail him to the cross over this non-issue like the pathetic little hack you are.

Donald Trump largely accurate that U.S. had biggest increase in murders in 45 years
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...claims-us-has-biggest-increase-murders-45-ye/

Our ruling

Trump said, "We have an increase in murder within our cities, the biggest in 45 years."

The number of murders nationally did rise by the biggest amount in 45 years, and criminologists agree that this is a development worth paying attention to. But they add that it comes after a steep, quarter-century decline, which suggests that it is not yet a cause for panic.

The statement is accurate but needs clarification and additional information. We rate it Mostly True.​

fskimo had a whole post on this already, but you seem to have missed it.

hint: it was right above the one you quoted.

 

[fskimospy]

Says the guy who's about as intellectually dishonest as they come. Trump likely meant to say the rate of rise of crime in cities, not the entire country. But by all means nail him to the cross over this non-issue like the pathetic little hack you are.

Donald Trump largely accurate that U.S. had biggest increase in murders in 45 years
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...claims-us-has-biggest-increase-murders-45-ye/

Our ruling

Trump said, "We have an increase in murder within our cities, the biggest in 45 years."

The number of murders nationally did rise by the biggest amount in 45 years, and criminologists agree that this is a development worth paying attention to. But they add that it comes after a steep, quarter-century decline, which suggests that it is not yet a cause for panic.

The statement is accurate but needs clarification and additional information. We rate it Mostly True.​

So now you're revising Trump's statement twice in order to make it not a lie, first to make it into murder rate instead of murders and then secondly to make it murders in cities specifically.

You're an extremely dishonest person. I don't know why you feel the need to project your moral failings on other people but if there's anything pathetic about this conversation it's that. You're letting your personal pride make you into a liar and it's an ugly thing.

 

[dainthomas]

Says the guy who's about as intellectually dishonest as they come. Trump likely referring to the rate of rise of crime in cities, not the entire country per se. But by all means nail him to the cross over this non-issue like the pathetic little hack you are.

For a guy whose main job is to communicate his ideas so they can be implemented, it's bothersome that everything he says needs to be clarified or explained later.

Maybe DeVos should mandate a Trump to English dictionary for every classroom.

 

[momeNt]

What kind of agenda does Politifact have?

Here is a check from a campaign statement of African American unemployment. http://www.politifact.com/virginia/...misleadingly-puts-black-youth-unemployment-r/

Trump says the unemployment rate for black youths is 59 percent.

The unemployment rate is a widely used term with a specific definition: It refers to the percentage of jobless people in the workforce who are actively seeking employment. In May, the unemployment rate for blacks ages 16 to 24 was 18.7 percent, or less than one-third of Trump’s claim.

Trump’s campaign didn’t respond to our question about where the candidate got his 59 percent figure. But it appears likely it comes from a computation of all 16- to 24-year-old blacks who aren’t working and may not even want a job, including high school and college students.

Clearly, black youths have a harder time finding work than whites. But Trump exaggerates the issue through his misleading use of statistics.

We rate his statement Mostly False.

Similar number quoted by Bernie at 51% http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-sanders-says-real-unemployment-rate-african/

Sanders said that for African-Americans between the ages of 17 and 20, "the real unemployment rate … is 51 percent." His terminology was off, but the numbers he used check out, and his general point was correct -- that in an apples-to-apples comparison, African-American youth have significantly worse prospects in the job market than either Hispanics or whites do. The statement is accurate but needs clarification or additional information, so we rate it Mostly True.

Clearly enough based on the Bernie ruling that Trump's should have been mostly true. Yet now, when he says something that really is just false, and takes multiple steps in order to get it to a correct statement, it now is mostly true?

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

So now you're revising Trump's statement twice in order to make it not a lie, first to make it into murder rate instead of murders and then secondly to make it murders in cities specifically.

You're an extremely dishonest person. I don't know why you feel the need to project your moral failings on other people but if there's anything pathetic about this conversation it's that. You're letting your personal pride make you into a liar and it's an ugly thing.

Even Politifact conflated cities with country in their title essentially conceding the difference as acceptably rhetorical. Boo hoo, he didn't precisely parse his words in a way that suits you. Waaah! The bottom line here is that the gist of what he was saying is obvious to anyone who's reasonably objective....he was clearly attempting to regurgitate his crime statistic schtick from when he was campaigning and mispoke rate vs. murders. OMG! The fucking sky is falling!

 

[MomentsofSanity]

What kind of agenda does Politifact have?

Here is a check from a campaign statement of African American unemployment. http://www.politifact.com/virginia/...misleadingly-puts-black-youth-unemployment-r/



Similar number quoted by Bernie at 51% http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-sanders-says-real-unemployment-rate-african/



Clearly enough based on the Bernie ruling that Trump's should have been mostly true. Yet now, when he says something that really is just false, and takes multiple steps in order to get it to a correct statement, it now is mostly true?

Why should it have been? Sanders used a much narrower demographic of 17-20 which is including school aged teens. Trump used a broader definition of youths which traditionally is defined as 16-24 when looking at unemployment figures. (The UN uses 15 to 24, the US doesn't count anyone below 16).

Unsurprisingly apples and oranges aren't the same.

 

[woolfe9998]

Trump is wrong about the overall murder rate of course (it's nowhere near the highest in 47 years), but murder rates are skyrocketing. In fact, 2015 saw the biggest increase in at least 25 years, and 2016 numbers are likely to be another similar increase over those high 2015 numbers. The increases seem to be concentrated in a relatively small number of big cities (Chicago, Baltimore, Memphis, Oakland, Cleveland etc) and many are also in places that have much stricter gun control laws than other places.

This article provides some interesting information on it.

So yes, Trump is wrong regarding the highest rate in 47 years, but he's right that the rate is skyrocketing.

It took a sizable relative leap from 2014 to 2015 only. One year shifts up or down are interesting but they don't say that much when you're looking at trending over 47 years. Not only was Trump's statement wrong, but it was almost opposite of the truth. Even after the spike, 2015 was the 5th lowest year out of the last 47. The historic low was 2014 and 2013 at 4.5. 2015 was 4.9. That's a large increase percentage-wise year over year, but a very small increase in total numbers. We gained .4 murders per 100,000 people, once.

That's quite a misrepresentation. It isn't even a good impression of the trend line because 1 year of 47 doesn't show a trend line. If the trend continues for 3-4 more years maybe we can talk about trending.

What we've seen so far is just enough to raise an eyebrow. It's no basis for any sort of fear-mongering over homicide. Homicide is near a historic low right now, but to listen to Trump, we should be freaking out over it. The same thing goes for his attempts to over-inflate the risks of terrorism.

I just want the POTUS to supply us with real facts, and stop calling everyone else "fake news."

 

[Bitek]

For a guy whose main job is to communicate his ideas so they can be implemented, it's bothersome that everything he says needs to be clarified or explained later.

Maybe DeVos should mandate a Trump to English dictionary for every classroom.

So true.

Not to mention he infamously tweeted out racist and false crime stats during his campaign, and his history of pathological lying makes everything he says under suspicion.

But for this one I'll file it under "President Dummy lies, yet again" and save my outrage ammo for actual actions.

Pathetic how full that folder has already gotten...

 

[Bitek]

Even Politifact conflated cities with country in their title essentially conceding the difference as acceptably rhetorical. Boo hoo, he didn't precisely parse his words in a way that suits you. Waaah! The bottom line here is that the gist of what he was saying is obvious to anyone who's reasonably objective....he was clearly attempting to regurgitate his crime statistic schtick from when he was campaigning and mispoke rate vs. murders. OMG! The fucking sky is falling!

Good job. You found a prospective to view Lying Don's words as not a lie this go around.

You must be so proud.

 

[HomerJS]

Hey Doc,

Do you realize you've normalized Trump, lying on almost a daily basis. This is the reason you characterize others pointing these out as another "full blown outrage" moment.

Having a POTUS who lies so frequently should be a "full blown outrage moment". You've seem to have been beaten into submission by Trump.

The problem isn't us, its him.

 

[bshole]

Hey man, we're 10th best in the nation! 2nd in the Midwest!
What's funny is I still feel incredibly safe here and yes, I do go to some shady-ass spots.

Actually I live in Glendale. I am a few blocks from Milwaukee. I am in a safe neighborhood but am EXTREMELY close to a very dangerous neighborhood. For whatever reason the violence never bleeds into my neighborhood.