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Trump Approval Rating Watch thread.

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alien42 said:
Trump has the lowest 6 month rating of any President in 70 years. absolutely brutal...

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1189a1TrumpatSixMonths.pdf
Click to expand...

and he goes to Twitter and states that the latest poll (36%) is nearly 40% (???) and that they were off the most during the election polls. What about the others? What about his beloved Rasmussen who has had him at negative 12% lately? He hailed them when they threw in the poll at 50% a month ago but hasn't said a peep about them since they started in freefall again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-brushes-off-record-low-approval-rating-not-bad-time-184612286.html
 
Engineer said:
and he goes to Twitter and states that the latest poll (36%) is nearly 40% (???) and that they were off the most during the election polls. What about the others? What about his beloved Rasmussen who has had him at negative 12% lately? He hailed them when they threw in the poll at 50% a month ago but hasn't said a peep about them since they started in freefall again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-brushes-off-record-low-approval-rating-not-bad-time-184612286.html
Click to expand...

They were one of the most accurate pollsters, not that he cares I'm sure.

Think how pathetic that is though where he's trying to claim he's almost at 40%. Lol.
 
J.Wilkins said:
36% seems WAY too high of an approval rating.

I assume that those are the kinds of people who call dinosaurs "Jesus-horses"?
Click to expand...

interestingly enough, doesn't 36% track very closely with the percentage of adult humans in the US that believe in Creationism?

hmm, yep
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/10/darwin-day/

The same survey found that 34% of Americans reject evolution entirely, saying humans and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time.
Click to expand...
 
I was looking over Trump's approval ratings, and noticed something interesting about the Rasmussen poll often touted by Trump and conservatives.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

It has the highest approval rating (43%) but also the highest disapproval rating (57%). That's because it appears to be the only one where the two numbers add up to 100%, meaning they evidently do not have an "I don't know/unsure" option, or else they eliminate the unsures from the calculation. This elevates both numbers. Most polls have 4-8% uncertain.

Anyway, the delta between the two is more important than the approval number. Trump averages an abysmal -16%, while Rasmussen shows him at -14%. It seems the red lean of that poll is not as much as it appears because some of the higher approval number is simply because of their binary poll method. It also seems clear that you can't just do a straight average like RCP does. Averaging in that Rasmussen number means you're averaging apples and oranges.
 
woolfe9998 said:
I was looking over Trump's approval ratings, and noticed something interesting about the Rasmussen poll often touted by Trump and conservatives.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

It has the highest approval rating (43%) but also the highest disapproval rating (57%). That's because it appears to be the only one where the two numbers add up to 100%, meaning they evidently do not have an "I don't know/unsure" option, or else they eliminate the unsures from the calculation. This elevates both numbers. Most polls have 4-8% uncertain.

Anyway, the delta between the two is more important than the approval number. Trump averages an abysmal -16%, while Rasmussen shows him at -14%. It seems the red lean of that poll is not as much as it appears because some of the higher approval number is simply because of their binary poll method. It also seems clear that you can't just do a straight average like RCP does. Averaging in that Rasmussen number means you're averaging apples and oranges.
Click to expand...

538 gives a weight and adjustment based on the pollsters historical lean - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
 
J.Wilkins said:
Ego as a grown up but you have to be raised to be completely self involved and ignore all evidence to the contrary or you'll learn to admit when you are wrong and thus gain the ability to learn.
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I think you are right about this. We know, for example, that various systems that purport to alter consciousness, religious institutions, monasteries, psychological systems etc. involve practices that aim to dissolve ego. The whole notion of humility, meekness, surrender to the will of God, etc are all about reducing a need for ego control.

I would say, then, that the source of the problem has long been know, and that the rigorous application of the scientific method, fact verification, and spiritual wisdom, reduction in the need to cling, can lead to increased openness to counter egotistical ideation. Unfortunately both of these will come under attack by those who wish to preserve the dominance of their ego and can themselves become the source of such perversion. We have seen what tobacco industry paid science tells us about how safe cigarettes are and we know what the Spanish Inquisition looked like.

So if you agree that it is the ego that blinds us to things, the next logical question would be, what is ego as we mean it here. I see this as a logical question because saying that ego is at cause offers me no understanding on what to do about it. I think that knowing what ego is holds promise in that direction. I have some theories on it and for which I feel paid rather dearly.
 
Moonbeam said:
I think you are right about this. We know, for example, that various systems that purport to alter consciousness, religious institutions, monasteries, psychological systems etc. involve practices that aim to dissolve ego. The whole notion of humility, meekness, surrender to the will of God, etc are all about reducing a need for ego control.

I would say, then, that the source of the problem has long been know, and that the rigorous application of the scientific method, fact verification, and spiritual wisdom, reduction in the need to cling, can lead to increased openness to counter egotistical ideation. Unfortunately both of these will come under attack by those who wish to preserve the dominance of their ego and can themselves become the source of such perversion. We have seen what tobacco industry paid science tells us about how safe cigarettes are and we know what the Spanish Inquisition looked like.

So if you agree that it is the ego that blinds us to things, the next logical question would be, what is ego as we mean it here. I see this as a logical question because saying that ego is at cause offers me no understanding on what to do about it. I think that knowing what ego is holds promise in that direction. I have some theories on it and for which I feel paid rather dearly.
Click to expand...

Ego as in *I* am the sole arbiter of my reality and no evidence will change my mind. I am locked into my own being, I am right because I have decided that I am right and I am the sole arbiter of my reality.

I model my learning after the scientific method. What I know is based on the best information I have and if new information arises that better explains something I adopt it.

I am never completely right but rarely completely wrong either and I'm fine with that.
 
woolfe9998 said:
I was looking over Trump's approval ratings, and noticed something interesting about the Rasmussen poll often touted by Trump and conservatives.
Click to expand...
Also note that Rasmussen is of Likely Voters. Who cares about voters 3.5 years before an election? Related: who can honestly pare down to just the correct likely voters this far out from an election? What matters at this point is the approval of all adults.

Including Rasmussen at this point is not apples/oranges. It is closer to bricks/oranges.
 
Moonbeam said:
What causes willful ignorance?
Click to expand...

Partly fear. If you were raised to believe certain things and you have those beliefs challenged, its easier to fight or scream or simply ignore new data than it is to admit something you believe is wrong.
This is especially problematic with religious beliefs. Interestingly the catholic church has actually been getting much better, while Muslims and American Protestants are fighting harder every day to avoid reality. Kinda scary.
 
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