Trump Administration: Numbers are hard

[HomerJS]

He is doing something that has been done before. Many people feel that stats don't tell the human story, so saying that numbers is now how he looks at them does not mean he does not understand numbers. He is trying to signal to people that feel the growing economy is leaving them out and that stats don't reflect their reality.

Ignoring hard numbers allows you to insert your own made up assertions/facts. You just have to look at Trump's constant rant about crowd size at the inaugural.

Ignoring hard numbers is a very dangerous thing to allow this administration to do.

 

[Chaotic42]

This is why I think we should just use U6 when we speak of unemployment. It would take a gutsy administration to make the switch though.

 

[Bowfinger]

This is why I think we should just use U6 when we speak of unemployment. It would take a gutsy administration to make the switch though.

That's up to the media to a great extent. BLS reports both the U-3 and the U-6. The media have standardized on reporting the U-3, for better or worse.

 

[Accord99]

I'm gonna go ahead and accurately assume that you are in absolutely no position to gauge the accuracy of this trash website. "They are better because I agree!"

They came to my attention when they (along with numerous other blogs) began to highlight the danger of the sub-prime housing market while the government, Fed and mainstream media tried desperately tried to say it was contained and no big deal; until Lehman Brothers detonated things.

So just by that account, they have been far better than the MSM.

 

[realibrad]

Ignoring hard numbers allows you to insert your own made up assertions/facts. You just have to look at Trump's constant rant about crowd size at the inaugural.

Ignoring hard numbers is a very dangerous thing to allow this administration to do.

Correct. But that was not the argument of the OP now was it?

 

[First]

They came to my attention when they (along with numerous other blogs) began to highlight the danger of the sub-prime housing market while the government, Fed and mainstream media tried desperately tried to say it was contained and no big deal; until Lehman Brothers detonated things.

So just by that account, they have been far better than the MSM.

They did no such thing, troll.

 

[Accord99]

They did no such thing, troll.

Of course they did; sounds you only watched the regular news and were blind-sided by the financial collapse of 2008, just like you probably were blind-sided by the Clinton defeat of 2016.

 

[First]

Of course they did; sounds you only watched the regular news and were blind-sided by the financial collapse of 2008, just like you probably were blind-sided by the Clinton defeat of 2016.

Nope, they predicted no such collapse (and in the aftermath, got inflation AND gold prices dead wrong). Feel free to cite specific Zerohedge articles predicting the 2008 collapse, of course you won't because you're a troll, but you already knew that.

 

[pcgeek11]

No, everybody doesn't know that. It's an allegation made by both parties when the numbers become inconvenient.

The basic BLS methodology hasn't changed in decades. In those rare cases where they've tweaked their methodology, they call it out and document it. For example, they revised demographics weighting in Bush 43's first term, creating a one-time ~900K increase in reported employment. (As someone who was not a Bush supporter, to put it mildly, I examined that change and had to concede it seemed legitimate, mostly reflecting a shift in the balance between farm and non-farm workers.)

The BLS has "always" maintained several sets of unemployment data, each using somewhat different criteria. The U3 rate is traditionally cited as the official unemployment rate. There are five others, however (from BLS):

• U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
• U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
• U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
• U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
• U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
• U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

When the opposition party wants to cry about the unemployment rate being manipulated, they usually cite the higher U-6 rate instead. This has been the case for decades, whether that opposition party is Republican or Democratic. Right now the U-3 is still seen as Obama's U-3, so Trump and his supporters are crying about how it's artificially low. I predict that in a few months, when the U-3 is accepted as Trump's U-3, Donnie and the gang will be bragging about how low unemployment is under his reign.

That is what I said without so much verbiage.

 

[pcgeek11]

I'll remember this the next time you or a pal point out unemployment numbers during Reagan years, during Bush years, during Obama years, in upcoming years...all using the exact same measure.

You're doing the same thing over and over and over: If you have deigned to discredit all of the tools that we use to measure data, to shape policy, to disseminate information to the public, then you are saying that everything is meaningless. No one can know anything because nothing is real. This is dangerous and wholly irresponsible, and there is absolutely no other way to interpret comments like this from you.

Sooner or later, you guys are going to have to extract your heads from your asses and rejoin the rest of us in society that are going to be busy cleaning up this disaster that you have shit upon us.

Go ahead. I'm not discrediting any particular party for this. They ALL do it to make themselves look better.

That is how statistics works when you can pick and choose what data you use you can make it say anything. I was not discrediting all the tools we use for ... I was only pointing out this particular data set has been manipulated by all for decades to show what they want you to believe. Nothing more nothing less. Of course you always want to read extra crap into post like you did here.

Oh grow up "this disaster that was pooped upon us". You poor thing. Just because you have a differing opinion doesn't make it right or the correct one.

 

[momeNt]

If you made an investment strategy based on recommendations from zerohedge you would be a very, very poor man. I don't care if they disagree with the mainstream media, it's their total incompetence that's the issue. It's a tabloid that makes sensational headlines to get clicks from easily misled people.

What does one have to do with the other. Are IRS tax returns not a reliable source of earnings? Does unemployment rate matter more than saying 35 million people report income of less than 20k?

Is unemployment rate a sign of a healthy lower and middle lower class?

 

[First]

Go ahead. I'm not discrediting any particular party for this. They ALL do it to make themselves look better.

That is how statistics works when you can pick and choose what data you use you can make it say anything. I was not discrediting all the tools we use for ... I was only pointing out this particular data set has been manipulated by all for decades to show what they want you to believe. Nothing more nothing less. Of course you always want to read extra crap into post like you did here.

Oh grow up "this disaster that was pooped upon us". You poor thing. Just because you have a differing opinion doesn't make it right or the correct one.

Aw how cute, you think the unfolding disaster that is the Trump administration is still open to further improvement and interpretation?

 

[fskimospy]

What does one have to do with the other. Are IRS tax returns not a reliable source of earnings? Does unemployment rate matter more than saying 35 million people report income of less than 20k?

Zerohedge's long history of incompetence and outright lies should always be taken into account. This article is another great example of some incompetent there trying to generate a sensational headline about a topic he does not understand. As for reliable source of earnings, at the low end IRS returns are probably not particularly reliable, no. As a quick example, what percentage of those people are working in tipped jobs where most of their income is cash that's probably not reported?

Is unemployment rate a sign of a healthy lower and middle lower class?

It's one sign of a healthy lower and lower middle class, yes. Why on earth wouldn't it be? Their statement that a transparently calculated figure with a clear and rational methodology that adheres to widely-held international standards is somehow a political exercise instead of an economic one just shows that whoever wrote that article is an incompetent.

 

[momeNt]

Zerohedge's long history of incompetence and outright lies should always be taken into account. This article is another great example of some incompetent there trying to generate a sensational headline about a topic he does not understand. As for reliable source of earnings, at the low end IRS returns are probably not particularly reliable, no. As a quick example, what percentage of those people are working in tipped jobs where most of their income is cash that's probably not reported?



It's one sign of a healthy lower and lower middle class, yes. Why on earth wouldn't it be? Their statement that a transparently calculated figure with a clear and rational methodology that adheres to widely-held international standards is somehow a political exercise instead of an economic one just shows that whoever wrote that article is an incompetent.

Assuming lower class and middle lower class lie on their tax returns. Victim blaming the low earners. I'm sure it's their fault they are in those lower brackets to begin with. Maybe they are drug dealers and have a ton of cash but no legitimate way to report it.

You tell me what percentage are working in tipped jobs off the 35 million that reported under 20k. BLS has total numbers of waiters for 2014 at 2.5 million. Total number of tipped jobs is just over 3 million, not counting prostitutes and drug dealers or any black market cash only entrepreneurs.

 

[fskimospy]

Assuming lower class and middle lower class lie on their tax returns. Victim blaming the low earners. I'm sure it's their fault they are in those lower brackets to begin with. Maybe they are drug dealers and have a ton of cash but no legitimate way to report it.

lolwut.

You tell me what percentage are working in tipped jobs off the 35 million that reported under 20k. BLS has total numbers of waiters for 2014 at 2.5 million. Total number of tipped jobs is just over 3 million, not counting prostitutes and drug dealers or any black market cash only entrepreneurs.

No I won't, I just pointed out one incredibly obvious problem that immediately came to mind that zerohedge ignored.

It's amusing that they would accuse anyone of putting politics first, by the way, as they allow their ideology to override economics and common sense on a daily basis. Even bad investors get lucky sometimes; to be as spectacularly bad at investing as you would be if you followed zerohedge's advice requires some sort of conscious effort not to learn from your mistakes.

 

[momeNt]

lolwut.



No I won't, I just pointed out one incredibly obvious problem that immediately came to mind that zerohedge ignored.

It's amusing that they would accuse anyone of putting politics first, by the way, as they allow their ideology to override economics and common sense on a daily basis. Even bad investors get lucky sometimes; to be as spectacularly bad at investing as you would be if you followed zerohedge's advice requires some sort of conscious effort not to learn from your mistakes.

It's not lolwut. You assumed of tipped earners that they would lie on their tax return. Why even do that?

The incredibly obvious problem would barely change the numbers at all. This is exactly the reason that Trump won the election, because he appealed to those who were hurting, while you accuse them of lying on their tax return! I'm not saying anything he will do will actually help them, but he knew how to talk to them. You instead blame tipped earners for messing up your statistics. When will you learn!

 

[fskimospy]

It's not lolwut. You assumed of tipped earners that they would lie on their tax return. Why even do that?

The incredibly obvious problem would barely change the numbers at all. This is exactly the reason that Trump won the election, because he appealed to those who were hurting, while you accuse them of lying on their tax return! I'm not saying anything he will do will actually help them, but he knew how to talk to them. You instead blame tipped earners for messing up your statistics. When will you learn!

Trump did not win the election because I pointed out that zerohedge is incompetent. When will you learn?

If you think the average tipped worker accurately reports their cash tips on their tax return I have a bridge to sell you. There are billions and billions in unreported cash tips each year and everyone (including the IRS) knows it.

 

[momeNt]

Trump did not win the election because I pointed out that zerohedge is incompetent. When will you learn?

If you think the average tipped worker accurately reports their cash tips on their tax return I have a bridge to sell you. There are billions and billions in unreported cash tips each year and everyone (including the IRS) knows it.

Read what I wrote. You accuse, and continue to do so, that a number as high as 35 million people making below 20k a year, is not a problem, because tipped earners are typically liars, even when presented with the fact that tipped earners make up less than 10% of that total number. Trump acted like he cared about those people, the people who wanted to jobs back in America. He got their vote in key states from people who are hurting.

You continue to drive on this point accusing a group of people who are twice as likely to be living in poverty as regular earners. I'm astounded by this, I truly am. All because I linked a zerohedge opinion piece which used IRS tax data to say that unemployment isn't a great state, maybe focus on, oh i dunno, actual earnings? I thought it was the lazy right wingers who couldn't be bothered to sift critically through information that buttered Breitbart's bread, sounds like there is plenty of butter to go around.

 

[fskimospy]

Read what I wrote. You accuse, and continue to do so, that a number as high as 35 million people making below 20k a year, is not a problem, because tipped earners are typically liars, even when presented with the fact that tipped earners make up less than 10% of that total number. Trump acted like he cared about those people, the people who wanted to jobs back in America. He got their vote in key states from people who are hurting.

I didn't do any of those things, I just pointed out an obvious flaw in what Zerohedge was saying. In addition, income was negatively correlated with Trump voting.

You continue to drive on this point accusing a group of people who are twice as likely to be living in poverty as regular earners. I'm astounded by this, I truly am.

What's so astounding about this? What I'm saying is indisputably true, that a large portion of cash tips go unreported. I'm not aware of anyone who argues this isn't the case.

All because I linked a zerohedge opinion piece which used IRS tax data to say that unemployment isn't a great state, maybe focus on, oh i dunno, actual earnings? I thought it was the lazy right wingers who couldn't be bothered to sift critically through information that buttered Breitbart's bread, sounds like there is plenty of butter to go around.

Unemployment is one of a whole bunch of metrics that are used to determine the overall health of the workforce and earnings are already referenced in every BLS employment release and nearly every news story about employment. Not sure how this is news to anyone.

You're totally right about one thing though, I cannot be bothered to sift through the drivel that Zerohedge writes. I mean after a site has been exposed literally dozens or perhaps hundreds of times for engaging in bizarre conspiracy theories, incompetent economic analysis, etc, eventually a smart person realizes that the site is a waste of everyone's time and attention. If I linked an infowars article to you should you be tasked with critically examining every piece of it or should you simply say 'that's infowars, no thanks'?

 

[OrByte]

What Spicer said is this:



While that sounds like what you're saying - let's put a human face on it - it actually makes no sense at all. Trump is supposed to be focused on "whether or not the American people are doing better as a whole" but how do we measure how well we are doing as a whole without numbers? Listening to this person or that talking about being out of a job puts a nice human face on it, but tells us exactly ZERO about "how we are doing as a whole." The only measures of macro trends in the economy are numbers.

Trump has also repeatedly claimed that unemployment numbers are fiction. No one says he doesn't understand numbers. What he's doing is denying their importance and/or their credibility because numbers are an objective way to measure things and that is not what Trump is about. Trump is about making pronouncements which are devoid of any sort of evidence, and expecting people to just accept what he says. He wants to do away with numbers just like he wants to do away with the press. Anything which challenges his version of reality clearly needs to be discredited.

I honestly don't understand why you claim to dislike this president yet you go out of the way to rationalize every piece of bullshit that comes out of his or his minions' mouths.

This is an excellent post. Well said.

The world operates on objectivity and fact. Where we start going wrong is when one group has a set of facts and another has yet another set of facts.

That is where Trump and people like him succeed. In eliminating fact and objectivity with introducing murky facts (Alternative Facts.)

There is nothing wrong with the Main stream media. They are the ones that have to report using facts, and this administration no longer wants to conduct business this way.

 

[momeNt]

I didn't do any of those things, I just pointed out an obvious flaw in what Zerohedge was saying. In addition, income was negatively correlated with Trump voting.



What's so astounding about this? What I'm saying is indisputably true, that a large portion of cash tips go unreported. I'm not aware of anyone who argues this isn't the case.



Unemployment is one of a whole bunch of metrics that are used to determine the overall health of the workforce and earnings are already referenced in every BLS employment release and nearly every news story about employment. Not sure how this is news to anyone.

You're totally right about one thing though, I cannot be bothered to sift through the drivel that Zerohedge writes. I mean after a site has been exposed literally dozens or perhaps hundreds of times for engaging in bizarre conspiracy theories, incompetent economic analysis, etc, eventually a smart person realizes that the site is a waste of everyone's time and attention. If I linked an infowars article to you should you be tasked with critically examining every piece of it or should you simply say 'that's infowars, no thanks'?

It was an IRS.gov link. I honestly can't remember what I googled to get that result near the top, but I did not want to link to an excel sheet. Here's an opinion by somebody I know you have sourced.

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chair...p;utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=sharing

Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America's middle class.

What's next? Attacking welfare queens?

 

[Bowfinger]

That is what I said without so much verbiage.

No, you said, "the unemployment number data has been manipulated for years to get a better ( lower ) number ..." It has not. Partisans have been making that allegation for years, however, when they want to discredit the opposition party.

 

[momeNt]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandimi...unemployment-rate-please-anyone/#301cbd8b423d

Figure 2 shows the ‘REAL’ unemployment rate when taking into account all the relevant and appropriate data. The rate is 15.8% and a more appropriate indication of the real pain being experienced by Americas working families.

Figure 3 indicates very clearly the gap in the jobs created between the various recessions over an 83 month period following the start of each recession. We are over 12 million jobs behind compared to the very bad 1981 recession and 3.9 million behind the milder 2001 recession.

Opinion piece from a contributor to Forbes. Likely a hack. Things are great.

 

[pcgeek11]

Aw how cute, you think the unfolding disaster that is the Trump administration is still open to further improvement and interpretation?

Yes I'm willing to give it a chance. I'm not going to run around like all of you chicken little types.

 

[pcgeek11]

No, you said, "the unemployment number data has been manipulated for years to get a better ( lower ) number ..." It has not. Partisans have been making that allegation for years, however, when they want to discredit the opposition party.

BS.