Originally posted by: Aegion
The Taiwanese planes include a significant number of recently bought F-16s, and generally have a major qualitative advantage over their Chinese counterparts. The number of high quality Chinese planes with the range to effectively strike Taiwan is actually quite small. Taiwan also has a significant amount of anti-aircraft defenses.
Simple widespread bombing of Taiwan is not really an option for China since their goal is reunification and they can't really justify it politically since these Communist government emphesizes how the Taiwanese are the same people as those in China.
Unless all of the naval vessels are caught by surprise in port, ballistic missiles can't be used against them. Taking them out by sea is much tougher, especially with the Taiwanese airforce still acting as a defensive force and with the difficulties of finding the ships in the first place.
Besides heavily underestimating the US response time with a carrier force, you're neglecting the fact that US aircraft could relocate from bases in Japan and South Korea to airbases on Taiwan in a day or less.
Your nuke suggestions is just absurd. The Chinese government wouldn't risk anihilation over just Taiwan.
I can talk in detail about the very serious problems China would have launching an amphibious invasion of Taiwan if someone wants to hear about them.
I would like to hear your take on what problems China would have launching an invasion. I like hearing about military stuff.
As for my take, and I'm NOT an expert in China-Taiwan or have a lot of knowledge about it, but. Hmm.. I'm not sure how 150 or so F-16s, Mirage 2000's are going to defend against 150? Su Flankers & 1000+ random MIGs. To invade, I'm sure they would position all their top of the line jets and equipment in range of Taiwan. The 300 or so medium range missiles will take out Taiwan's anti-aircraft defenses because I'm sure spies have already scouted their locations and sent back their GPS coordinates. As for mobile anti-aircraft defenses, they'll risk their old MIGs against them, they have a lot anyway. As for Taiwan's Navy, China's new Russian missile ships will be sent after them, along with their quiet diesel Kilo subs. As for Taiwan's subs....Did they ever get new ones? I think they only have 2 decent ones, that won't matter that much then. And after they deal with Taiwan's air force, they'll start hunting the ships. When they clear the air force and navy, then they'll launch the invasion.
This is just China vs Taiwan. If the US intervenes it would be different.