First, I don't believe in historical analogs, like the old Neville Chamberlain story. There are no perfect parallels. The lunatics running DPRK are far more dangerous in Asia than the regime in Iran.
Second, it may even be a dead horse, but there are still folks unaware of it -- as follows. Americans immediately assumed that the hostage crisis that sealed the fate of the Carter administration was exclusively the result of America's alliance with Israel and the Shiite take on the Palestinian problem. That may be a factor, but not even I -- in 1979 -- was aware of the old '50s history, whereby CIA overthrew the duly elected Iranian President Mossadegh and installed the Shah -- who in turn created SAVAK, a brutal secret police. Every Iranian smarts at that old history, so it brands America as an old hand at superpower meddling in the affairs of other countries. And why is their meddling? The oil market, complicated by Cold War machinations.
We've been cleaning up the detritus of the Cold War since it "ended."
Third, there's the hypocrisy that Israel doesn't acknowledge -- nor does either the US or other powers make an issue of it -- that they have a small nuclear arsenal. They either "do" or they "don't," but it's never been denied. Certainly, Iran is aware of this.
As the consumer over time of something like 25% of the world's fossil-fuel production, we made Iran rich by initially developing its oil extraction.
Fourth, just about every initiative the President has put forth to congress has been obstructed. He's under attack for "signing executive orders." It is a consistent pattern that either posits a foolhardy stance that "we're right about everything and you're wrong," or a card that most won't mention or play openly.
And now it comes down to this. Time after time after time, while assaulting the White House over one issue after another, the Republicans have made the President look weak, then leveling the charge that he "is" weak in the eyes of the world -- without acknowledging their own shenanigans to make it true. We now have this pending agreement with several major powers and allies on the Iran agreement with scientists and arms-control experts on board.
So just how weak will we be -- as opposed to appearances -- if they torpedo the initiative? And with a GOP president in the White House in 2016, what are the odds that we'll be at war again by 2017?
Back in 2000, summer, I actually predicted just about every event through the end of Bush's term: a terrorist attack similar to 911; the real-estate bubble; a war to finish what Poppy didn't. I can only explain my predictions arising from a lot of reading and research I'd done about the Cold War and the industrial forces that influence public policy.
Now, I'm not sure what to predict.
But the biggest problem we have is a shift in the public's view of risk (in this case -- to National Security)O now as opposed to many years ago. We can go on to discuss and debate this perception of risk, but I'll stop there for now.