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today's stock market

G

glugglug

Diamond Member
went up relatively fast this morning, then dove off a cliff at around 3PM.

According to Yahoo in-play, this was triggered by rumors of SARS in the white house, NOT because the DOW hitting 9000 caused people to realize things are still over-valued.

The big question is, what are the odds that either event will cause reality to sink in and crash the market? I sold the stocks I had that I believe reached near their real value with the climb the past 2 weeks, but should I sell the others also?
 
I'm in and I'm stayin in now. I jumped back in about 3 months ago. I look at it this way, we passed sept. 11, 2 wars and a few other bad things over the past few years yet we still seem to be OK. Just use common sense when investing. We will never see anything like the 90's again, at least I hope not.
 
Originally posted by: IamDavid
I'm in and I'm stayin in now. I jumped back in about 3 months ago. I look at it this way, we passed sept. 11, 2 wars and a few other bad things over the past few years yet we still seem to be OK. Just use common sense when investing. We will never see anything like the 90's again, at least I hope not.
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Either that, or you just wish you sold before the downturn. 😉
 
The Nasdaq has risen over 20% in the last 3 months (maybe even closer to 25%). Using 20% works out to 107% interest per year. That is a steeper slope than ANY year in the 90s, including the 12 months preceding the "bubble burst".

P/E ratios are also extreme across the board, not just in the tech sector.
 
Yep. I've been in since 1983. Rode out '87, '90, dot bomb and the last bear. Never had one penny in a dot bomb stock. Watched my blue chips languish while the dot bombers appreciated to stratospheric levels. Heh, the early 70s repeated in 99-00. I'll never figure out why people invest in companies with no business model that have never earned a dime.

Enjoyed about a 1900 percent run-up in 7 years on a tech stock which I sold during summer of 2000 - just in time. Firmly convinced of the profitability of blue chips, select banks, resturants and value stocks. As an old crusty investor told me a while back: "If you see people buy the product, think about it. If you see people in other countries buy the product, go for it".

The big question is, what are the odds that either event will cause reality to sink in and crash the market? I sold the stocks I had that I believe reached near their real value with the climb the past 2 weeks, but should I sell the others also?
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The market is an emotion-driven process. If you feel the P/E is too high and fundamentals are no longer there, then sell. I pay little attention to rumors anyway. Earnings and book value are the main factors, in my opinion. Long term investing is my philosophy.
 
Originally posted by: burnedout

The big question is, what are the odds that either event will cause reality to sink in and crash the market? I sold the stocks I had that I believe reached near their real value with the climb the past 2 weeks, but should I sell the others also?
Click to expand...
The market is an emotion-driven process. If you feel the P/E is too high and fundamentals are no longer there, then sell. I pay little attention to rumors anyway. Earnings and book value are the main factors, in my opinion. Long term investing is my philosophy.
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Earnings and book value (and pretty much every other "accounting" item) can be massaged to show anything. Trying to pick individual stocks to trade is just asking for trouble. People do this full-time as their profession and even most of them can't make money consistently. What makes you think you will be able to beet them?

I have had some portion of my portfolio invested in equities since starting college (not too long ago, back in 96 or so), but have always kept my money in broad market funds (ie, russell 1000, s&p 5, or even the nasdaq 100, which isn't all that broad). It is just safer that way.
 
Originally posted by: LongCoolMother
will csco ever rise up to 80 again? 🙁 we lost over $2 million from that. foolish selves. 🙁
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sure, just as soon as triple-digit PER's come back into fashion. 😉

doesn't mean its not a legitimate buy at $16 tho....
 

Well, I am sure the markets will pick up, most probably within a year. Plus, no matter if the market as a whole jumps phenomenally or not, there will always be good companies that will make good stash at the wall. One only needs to keep eyes and ears open and connected and ass ready to act when the windfall seems imminent.

The bank interest rates being below inflation, I dont see any other option to investing anyways. Futures, gold and real estate anyone??

 
Earnings and book value (and pretty much every other "accounting" item) can be massaged to show anything. Trying to pick individual stocks to trade is just asking for trouble. People do this full-time as their profession and even most of them can't make money consistently. What makes you think you will be able to beet them?
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20 years experience, 19 issues and $355K. Been in PG since '83, HDI since '89, NCC and MCD since '92, etc. Don't do it full time. Buy and hold with occasional sells. DRIPs rock! Why sweat the small stuff?
 
Originally posted by: burnedout
Earnings and book value (and pretty much every other "accounting" item) can be massaged to show anything. Trying to pick individual stocks to trade is just asking for trouble. People do this full-time as their profession and even most of them can't make money consistently. What makes you think you will be able to beet them?
Click to expand...
20 years experience, 19 issues and $355K. Been in PG since '83, HDI since '89, NCC and MCD since '92, etc. Don't do it full time. Buy and hold with occasional sells. DRIPs rock! Why sweat the small stuff?
Click to expand...

I got no problem with people investing. And no doubt you could have made a lot of money by picking stocks in the past. But you do realize that in the past 20 years, the s&p has returned a compounded return of around 13%? Do you really think you can consistently beat that?
 
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