thoughts on a looming trade war with China

[brainhulk]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/17/chin...e-stage-at-world-economic-forum-in-davos.html

How do you guys think this will play out? Immediate and long term consequences?

 

[theeedude]

Look up Smoot Hawley.

 

[desura]

Trump will pussy out before anything serious happens.

He talks shit, but when it comes time to make the tough call he tends to get scared. He'll get advisors telling him that if he does this measure against China then the USA might lose this many jobs, this much disrupted, etc.

 

[Meghan54]

One question...where do we in the U.S. obtain most of the strategic metals we use? Now what happens if their prices go up 100% or more? That's just one example...

 

[theeedude]

Trump will pussy out before anything serious happens.
He talks shit, but when it comes time to make the tough call he tends to get scared. He'll get advisors telling him that if he does this measure against China then the USA might lose this many jobs, this much disrupted, etc.

That's not a safe assumption.

 

[KMFJD]

Americans will pay more for shit they buy in China

 

[desura]

That's not a safe assumption.

Can't predict everything, but that is his character.

 

[momeNt]

One question...where do we in the U.S. obtain most of the strategic metals we use? Now what happens if their prices go up 100% or more? That's just one example...

Montana.

 

[Sonikku]

One question...where do we in the U.S. obtain most of the strategic metals we use? Now what happens if their prices go up 100% or more? That's just one example...

We probably don't want to cause any trouble for the country keeping our war machine stocked. I mean what if we ever want a non nuclear conventional war with China??

 

[desura]

Montana.

No. there are some rare earths only China has. Japan has learned this when they got into trouble over the Senkakus.

 

[desura]

Thing is that Trump acting like a jerk towards China comes at a pretty bad time. Like, getting tough with China might have been plausible ten years ago, but China has been on a nationalistic tear lately in a way that is illogical and points to internal legitimacy problems. Which means that a stupid unnecessary war is more likely given current conditions than in the past. Like, the whole South China Sea thing is unnecessary, and it is not the United States changing the status quo like what happened with Ukraine and Georgia, but China changing the status quo. The Chinese have also been squabbling with Japan over the Senkaku islands which literally cannot support habitable life.

 

[Chaotic42]

One question...where do we in the U.S. obtain most of the strategic metals we use? Now what happens if their prices go up 100% or more? That's just one example...

We have a good amount of rare earth elements, we just don't have the mining capacity. If we needed to, we could ramp it up over time, but it's arguably better to pay more money to use up their stocks than to burn through ours.

http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/finalwebsite/solutions/deposits.html

 

[jana519]

One question...where do we in the U.S. obtain most of the strategic metals we use? Now what happens if their prices go up 100% or more? That's just one example...

People will pay more for electronic goods, that will mean less spending and that sector will downturn, which will shrink the economy and create less jobs? Is that correct?

What's the alternative if you want to decrease imports and increase exports? I don't know.

 

[FIVR]

$899 iPhone incoming

 

[momeNt]

No. there are some rare earths only China has. Japan has learned this when they got into trouble over the Senkakus.

Don't believe that is true. They just subsidized their pricing to undercut the world market and forced the rest of the world to curtail mining operations in the 1990s.

 

[piasabird]

Some of my thoughts:
1. We borrow money for our defeceit from China.
2. If China starts a war we might be short on cash but we may not owe them any money anymore.
3. Most computer equipment is made in China or built in China. If that supply is cut off, what happens?

 

[theeedude]

Seems like a lot of potential problems just to replace Chinese workers with American robots.

 

[momeNt]

Some of my thoughts:
1. We borrow money for our defeceit from China.
2. If China starts a war we might be short on cash but we may not owe them any money anymore.
3. Most computer equipment is made in China or built in China. If that supply is cut off, what happens?

Modern money does not work the same way as personal finances.

• Our money is fake, pretend it is just points on a scoreboard
• In order for the scorekeeper to have points, the scorekeeper has create debt - a + on the scoreboard is a - in the debt of the scorekeeper
• China wants to have a high score to have high GDP, they send us their goods for points on the scoreboard
• Because they cannot do anything with the points, they invest the points with the scorekeeper for extra points (buying treasury notes)

If it was gold, then yes you absolutely do not want to have trade deficits and low stockpiles of gold. The US through WWI and WWII gathered up most of the world's gold through their military exports with Allied forces. Hopefully we have kept it and the move to fiat was to preserve the stockpiles, and not because little was left!

 

[agent00f]

Thing is that Trump acting like a jerk towards China comes at a pretty bad time. Like, getting tough with China might have been plausible ten years ago, but China has been on a nationalistic tear lately in a way that is illogical and points to internal legitimacy problems. Which means that a stupid unnecessary war is more likely given current conditions than in the past. Like, the whole South China Sea thing is unnecessary, and it is not the United States changing the status quo like what happened with Ukraine and Georgia, but China changing the status quo. The Chinese have also been squabbling with Japan over the Senkaku islands which literally cannot support habitable life.

China intends to demonstrate power over their sphere of influence. A reliable illustration of power is getting your way by default precisely on, and not despite, frivolous issues.

 

[desura]

China intends to demonstrate power over their sphere of influence. A reliable illustration of power is getting your way by default precisely on, and not despite, frivolous issues.

THere are multiple types of power. Logically, China could just play nice and gain power in a subtle way by playing the benevolent elder brother. The USA has huge deficits and eventually will have to cut back its presence around the world over the next 20 years, in which time China could expand its influence slowly. Right now they're acting very brittle and too tough. That scares its neighbors, which is why Vietnam hates China with a passion right now.

All of these problems occurred in he last couple of years of Xi Jingping. And looking at Taiwan's leader who is thumbing her nose at China as well, there is a higher chance of war with China than i ever remember there being.

 

[agent00f]

THere are multiple types of power. Logically, China could just play nice and gain power in a subtle way by playing the benevolent elder brother. The USA has huge deficits and eventually will have to cut back its presence around the world over the next 20 years, in which time China could expand its influence slowly. Right now they're acting very brittle and too tough. That scares its neighbors, which is why Vietnam hates China with a passion right now.

All of these problems occurred in he last couple of years of Xi Jingping. And looking at Taiwan's leader who is thumbing her nose at China as well, there is a higher chance of war with China than i ever remember there being.

China already projects considerable soft power by building infrastructure in instead of bombing the shit out of countries. Between Russia and China and the US, only one is still the odd one out for warmongering. Contrast that to your understanding of the situation.

 

[superstition]

Looming?

The US has been engaged in a trade war with China for quite some time now.

Anyone who thinks otherwise should play a Civilization game sometime. Those games get most things wrong but one thing they get right is that interests are always in conflict with other interests. There is no actual peace as long as there are differences.

The thing that makes things especially interesting for us, though, is how global financial elites aren't necessarily sharing their interests with us — the plebs. We may be the casualties of war in terms of seeing a reduction of lifestyle quality (especially all the Chinese people who are sickening and dying from the pollution) but it doesn't mean we'll necessarily see the profits trickle down in our backyards.

 

[desura]

Looming?

The US has been engaged in a trade war with China for quite some time now.

Anyone who thinks otherwise should play a Civilization game sometime. Those games get most things wrong but one thing they get right is that interests are always in conflict with other interests. There is no actual peace as long as there are differences.

The thing that makes things especially interesting for us, though, is how global financial elites aren't necessarily sharing their interests with us — the plebs. We may be the casualties of war in terms of seeing a reduction of lifestyle quality (especially all the Chinese people who are sickening and dying from the pollution) but it doesn't mean we'll necessarily see the profits trickle down in our backyards.

Yeah, seriously. It is kinda sad seeing rich Chinese spending their money in Europe. Like, there's no such thing as a Carnegie foundation or Gates foundation in China devoted to benevolent charity for common people--it is very mercenary. It's pretty messed up, they're nationalists without the moral guidance of Judaism/Christianity.

 

[Jhhnn]

Yeah, seriously. It is kinda sad seeing rich Chinese spending their money in Europe. Like, there's no such thing as a Carnegie foundation or Gates foundation in China devoted to benevolent charity for common people--it is very mercenary. It's pretty messed up, they're nationalists without the moral guidance of Judaism/Christianity.

Please. The State serves the same functions today, just better. They've come a long way since the revolution and Nixon's opening to China. They've transformed themselves into a thriving society.

It needs to be understood that Chinese govt was weak before the opium wars & absolute shit for the 100 years thereafter. They've done remarkably well for themselves once they got past the 60's.

 

[superstition]

They've done remarkably well for themselves once they got past the 60's.

Except for that pesky poisoning the population with extreme pollution, which includes degrading soil with toxins that will be around for many decades, bit.