Theoretical BCS USF question...

[Cuda1447]

Alright, so the USF bulls should be ranked #4 after this week, with #5 and #2 losing. They still play ranked Cincinnati and ranked Clemson. With LSU or OSU or someone else losing in the top 4 that could move USF up a spot or two? Would they have a shot at a National Championship? Let's pretend they went undefeated and only one other team did. Would you put a 1 loss team ahead of the bulls simply because they are a new football program and don't have a big rep yet?

 

[Injury]

It's dependent on too many situations. What if that "1 loss team" had their loss against another high-ranked team in overtime? What if USF only wins a few games by a field goal in a low-scoring game?

It's not all wins/losses, they DO factor in who you play and how you played.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

If USF wins out they'd currently be on the outside looking in. Ohio State and LSU will remain ahead of them. If either or both of those teams lose it's anybody's guess. The BCS is a complete joke, who knows what the voters will do. My guess is that since USF came into the season lightly regarded the voters would find a way to keep a highly-hyped 1 loss team ahead of them in the polls.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Alright, so the USF bulls should be ranked #4 after this week, with #5 and #2 losing. They still play ranked Cincinnati and ranked Clemson. With LSU or OSU or someone else losing in the top 4 that could move USF up a spot or two? Would they have a shot at a National Championship? Let's pretend they went undefeated and only one other team did. Would you put a 1 loss team ahead of the bulls simply because they are a new football program and don't have a big rep yet?

Clemson probably not ranked after this weekend. But like Gag said, they'll need LSU or OSU to lose.

Real tragedy will be if two of the top three lose and Hawaii sneaks in. OTOH, maybe it will force the people with decision making power to finally do something about the stupidity of no playoff.

 

[Wreckem]

USF still has to play Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville.

They arent going to win out. Cal, OSU, or LSU arent likely to win out either.

There is not going to be an undefeated team this year.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Injury
It's dependent on too many situations. What if that "1 loss team" had their loss against another high-ranked team in overtime? What if USF only wins a few games by a field goal in a low-scoring game?

It's not all wins/losses, they DO factor in who you play and how you played.

Its a huge if, but if USF were to win out.

They would have beaten Aubrun, West Virginia, Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville.

Thats a pretty tough schedule.

 

[sciencewhiz]

South Florida is 5th in the and Coaches poll. Coming up, they don't have any "huge" games in the voters eyes, therefore, they probably won't jump any of the teams ahead of them that also win. They have two "easy" games towards the end of the season (Syracuse and Pittsburgh). If they win close, they might have the "Cal" effect and move down.

They are much stronger in the computers and should finish above all the one loss teams in the computers.

If there are only 2 undefeated teams, and USF looks good against Syracuse and Pittsburgh, I think USF will make the championship. If there are 3 undefeated teams and 2 of them are currently ahead of them in the polls, they won't make the championship game.

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: Gibsons

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Alright, so the USF bulls should be ranked #4 after this week, with #5 and #2 losing. They still play ranked Cincinnati and ranked Clemson. With LSU or OSU or someone else losing in the top 4 that could move USF up a spot or two? Would they have a shot at a National Championship? Let's pretend they went undefeated and only one other team did. Would you put a 1 loss team ahead of the bulls simply because they are a new football program and don't have a big rep yet?

Clemson probably not ranked after this weekend. But like Gag said, they'll need LSU or OSU to lose.

Real tragedy will be if two of the top three lose and Hawaii sneaks in. OTOH, maybe it will force the people with decision making power to finally do something about the stupidity of no playoff.

I doubt Hawaii is going to sneak in. They are this year's Boise State. Plus, they don't play in a BCS conference, so even undefeated, a one-loss BCS conference team will play in it before them. That's the ridiculousness of this bowl system.

Playoffs NOW!

 

[JasonCoder]

If the bulls win out that will be pretty big. They'll have to get some respect. I find it interesting that folks are only mentioning LSU and OSU. Don't sleep on Cal now. They still have to play pretty much everyone and USF is currently TIED with Oklahoma for #5 in the coaches. And the coaches is the one that affects BCS, the BCS could give a shit about the AP. If Oklahoma steam rolls everyone on the rest of their schedule like they did early in the year USF will have to worry about them too.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: JasonCoder
USF is currently TIED with Oklahoma for #5 in the coaches. And the coaches is the one that affects BCS, the BCS could give a shit about the AP. If Oklahoma steam rolls everyone on the rest of their schedule like they did early in the year USF will have to worry about them too.

USF has a HUGE advantage in the computers over Oklahoma. Probably enough that they could afford to be a full spot behind Oklahoma in the polls. (USF is 2nd in the computers, Oklahoma will be in the mid 20's).

I'll post my BCS projections later today or tomorrow morning, once more of the computers are available, but I think USF will be a solid #4 in the BCS this week.

There isn't very much variation between the polls. There might be some early in the season, or the week immediately following an upset, but that works out later. For example, USC is 10th in the AP and 7th in the coaches poll this week. I expect that next week, they will be at within 1 poll position in each poll next week.

 

[KLin]

Originally posted by: Wreckem
USF still has to play Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville.

They arent going to win out. Cal, OSU, or LSU arent likely to win out either.

There is not going to be an undefeated team this year.

I think LSU has the best chance to go undefeated this season.

 

[ProfJohn]

The fact that people are even talking about USF like this is amazing. BCS game or not they have made a hell of an impact.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

Originally posted by: KLin

Originally posted by: Wreckem
USF still has to play Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville.

They arent going to win out. Cal, OSU, or LSU arent likely to win out either.

There is not going to be an undefeated team this year.

I think LSU has the best chance to go undefeated this season.

They've already beat the 3 toughest teams on their schedule, so you have to like their chances. Kentucky and Auburn coming up back to back though, both of those games are losable, especially if they have a letdown after beating Florida.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

If the Bears win out they're going to be #2 for sure. They will have a tough road series with ASU and UCLA before coming home against U$C.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

USF isn't going to win out, but I think the Big East has made enough impact in the past few years that an undefeated Big East team would get a nod over any other 1 loss team. That being said, I really don't see USF winning out, I don't even think they're the best team in the Big East. UC seems like a better off team to do that as they seem to be the most well-rounded team in that conference.

Bears fans shouldn't be too confident about controlling their own destiny, they're barely ahead of OSU as it is and in a Pac-10 that was dealt some pretty big respectability blows last night...besides, I don't have the confidence in Cal to win out. The only team in the Pac-10 to show "consistency" in winning has been USC, and even they have dropped some pretty odd games in the past, I can see Cal dropping an odd game like USC and UCLA did last night.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Even if USF was to go undefeated, they are still considered to be a lower class team than the biggies (right of wrong) w/ respect to the BCS

They have not proved their spurs.

 

[JasonCoder]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

Originally posted by: JasonCoder
USF is currently TIED with Oklahoma for #5 in the coaches. And the coaches is the one that affects BCS, the BCS could give a shit about the AP. If Oklahoma steam rolls everyone on the rest of their schedule like they did early in the year USF will have to worry about them too.

USF has a HUGE advantage in the computers over Oklahoma. Probably enough that they could afford to be a full spot behind Oklahoma in the polls. (USF is 2nd in the computers, Oklahoma will be in the mid 20's).

I'll post my BCS projections later today or tomorrow morning, once more of the computers are available, but I think USF will be a solid #4 in the BCS this week.

There isn't very much variation between the polls. There might be some early in the season, or the week immediately following an upset, but that works out later. For example, USC is 10th in the AP and 7th in the coaches poll this week. I expect that next week, they will be at within 1 poll position in each poll next week.

Wow didn't realize the puters were giving USF that much love. Interestingly, Jeff has them ranked #2 as well (at least for BCS purposes).

Still, I think Okie's gonna be the hard one for USF... cuz they'll probably cruise on the rest of the big12 South. Not sure if they play mizzou or either team from kansas but one of those or the champ game (if A&M loses and thus propel the sooners to the game) will be their best shot at getting beat again.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: JasonCoder
Still, I think Okie's gonna be the hard one for USF... cuz they'll probably cruise on the rest of the big12 South. Not sure if they play mizzou or either team from kansas but one of those or the champ game (if A&M loses and thus propel the sooners to the game) will be their best shot at getting beat again.

Oklahoma's next game is Missouri. No time for a let down game. They do dodge both Kansas teams.

 

[RKS]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper
Even if USF was to go undefeated, they are still considered to be a lower class team than the biggies (right of wrong) w/ respect to the BCS

They have not proved their spurs.

Not really. They would go in as the Big East Champ. The Big East is a BCS conference so if they win out, and a few select teams lose, they would have a pretty chance at getting to the NC without 'proving their spurs'.

 

[Chryso]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: Injury
It's dependent on too many situations. What if that "1 loss team" had their loss against another high-ranked team in overtime? What if USF only wins a few games by a field goal in a low-scoring game?

It's not all wins/losses, they DO factor in who you play and how you played.

Its a huge if, but if USF were to win out.

They would have beaten Aubrun, West Virginia, Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville.

Thats a pretty tough schedule.

Maybe it's just me but having to play Rutgers, Cincy and Louisville does not sound all that tough.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

I'll post my BCS projections later today or tomorrow morning, once more of the computers are available, but I think USF will be a solid #4 in the BCS this week.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...id=38&threadid=2104768

not quite #4, but close. I have additional projections in that thread.

 

[digiram]

Originally posted by: Wreckem
USF still has to play Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville.

They arent going to win out. Cal, OSU, or LSU arent likely to win out either.

There is not going to be an undefeated team this year.

BC

 

[jme5343]

It's nice to even see Mizzou getting mentioned in these threads. I hope we can play a respectable game in Norman this weekend.

I was at the game to watch the spanking of Nebraska, btw

 

[Qacer]

All I can say is that I don't think I'll be able to easily get into a USF game in the near future. When I was in undergrad, we used to be able to go in the games with just our student IDs. Now, there is an insane line to get student tickets. My friend had to wait for 4+ hours yesterday to score some.