Well it's not even close there.
http://static.seekingalpha.com...0/gdpannualized1_2.png
It doesn't include 2008, but 08 Q3 GDP was -.5%. 09 will be probably a -1 to -3%.
http://static.seekingalpha.com...0/gdpannualized1_2.png
It doesn't include 2008, but 08 Q3 GDP was -.5%. 09 will be probably a -1 to -3%.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Yeah, it's kind of nice having to turn down offers to go work for someone else. Sure, I'd get a bigger paycheck but it isn't worth it if the company sucks. I have 2 places that I'd leave for if they made the right offer(they haven't hit my numbers yet) but the other places around here are just trading green grass for green grass.
Which answers my question, even though you hadn't intended to do so. It's all different, somehow, when it's about you personally, rather than when you're blowing smoke about "trying" to hire people, ehh?
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
No, it's not different. There was no blowing smoke - we literally have been trying to hire people. However due to what we do and where we are located, it limits the pool. Again, we have been hiring(more doubled both offices in 8 years). I have not looked to leave but like many things, if you do your job well and are in front of other businesses you tend to get unsolicited offers. I've refrained from accepting all of them so far since I either A - don't want to trade green grass for green grass or B) leave for a "better" position(and company) until it's something that I literally can't refuse. Like I stated, there are 2 that have approached me that I would consider due to multiple factors but they both know they'll have to pony up more than they want to give for that position. You see, if I was looking to leave - I'd have been gone long ago for far less than I've been offered but my current company's compensation package is as good or better than most other places because I've been there and have shown that loyalty and hard work.
Hell, If I didn't work for the company I work for now and saw they were hiring - I'd apply since I know what they do and have the professional skills they need. So again, It's not different. We have hired and are still trying to hire more people because we have built a pretty large customer base who are wanting us to do more and more projects for them since we excel at what we do and have proven it over time.
Vic
Elite Member
- Jun 12, 2001
- 50,422
- 14,337
- 136
75% of the workforce still had steady employment during the Great Depression. In the meantime, I'm working foreclosures now. They're at a record pace and rising.
Fsck the usual morons in this thread, says I. You idiots would say the economy was rosy if the unemployment rate was 99.9% and you were the last people in the country with jobs. That's because you're stupid. Wake up, this perpetual ostrich-ing is why your party lost the last election. Keep it up, and the Pubs will disappear forever. Not that many here would mind, but I don't like the idea of a one-party state even if one of the parties insists on being perpetually blind to reality.
Fsck the usual morons in this thread, says I. You idiots would say the economy was rosy if the unemployment rate was 99.9% and you were the last people in the country with jobs. That's because you're stupid. Wake up, this perpetual ostrich-ing is why your party lost the last election. Keep it up, and the Pubs will disappear forever. Not that many here would mind, but I don't like the idea of a one-party state even if one of the parties insists on being perpetually blind to reality.
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
I think we have fundamental problems which can not be addressed until we turn off Springer and other banel shit and get busy.
First of all that huge prosperity our parents experienced 1950-1980ish was a gift because we destroyed all competition in WWII and as and added bonus Russia, China and a lot of SE ASIA were communists afterwards. W/O competition our goods and knowhow was in demand shipped around the world etc. Thats gone. Everything built is coming in instead of going out. Our dollars go out we increase our debt and live like wanna be millionaires. That party is over because...
Debt! Credit bubble has burst, housing too, and the stock market. In the past recessions were controlled by the FED slashing rates and people borrowed, spent and economy recovered. Not this time. Rates are at all time lows and hardly anyone can borrow because real wages are not rising fast enough to finance our already maxed credit. This is really unprecedented AFAIK.
So we have a situation where we don't produce what we use, are behind the curve educationally limiting our production IQ, capital is fleeing USA for greener places, and are in debt to our ears. Does not look good and I have not even mentioned what we owe to federal and state governments and what happens when those sovereign funds get the same clue our banks have about our consumers.
First of all that huge prosperity our parents experienced 1950-1980ish was a gift because we destroyed all competition in WWII and as and added bonus Russia, China and a lot of SE ASIA were communists afterwards. W/O competition our goods and knowhow was in demand shipped around the world etc. Thats gone. Everything built is coming in instead of going out. Our dollars go out we increase our debt and live like wanna be millionaires. That party is over because...
Debt! Credit bubble has burst, housing too, and the stock market. In the past recessions were controlled by the FED slashing rates and people borrowed, spent and economy recovered. Not this time. Rates are at all time lows and hardly anyone can borrow because real wages are not rising fast enough to finance our already maxed credit. This is really unprecedented AFAIK.
So we have a situation where we don't produce what we use, are behind the curve educationally limiting our production IQ, capital is fleeing USA for greener places, and are in debt to our ears. Does not look good and I have not even mentioned what we owe to federal and state governments and what happens when those sovereign funds get the same clue our banks have about our consumers.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Well, CSG, when my wife's firm advertised for the same position 3 years ago, there were fewer than 50 applicants. The total this morning is over 700. Anecdotes aren't data, of course, but the situation at her firm isn't bucking the trend, that's for sure.
I'm not sure that the concepts necessary to describe the current situation have even been formulated, but describing it as less than ominous takes a Pollyanna POV.
I'm not sure that the concepts necessary to describe the current situation have even been formulated, but describing it as less than ominous takes a Pollyanna POV.
Right, we don't have Q4 GDP numbers yet - I heard Friday? In any event, I've heard estimates of a -5% to -6% plummet in GDP for Q4 08. We'll see. Even that wouldn't be the worst drop, but everything depends on how quickly things turn around. If Q1 09 continues on present course, we could eventually start busting some records...
I think the alarming thing about this recession is the massive financial melt-down and subsequent gov't bailout. That's really unprecedented since the Great Depression, and perhaps what leads the media to make the sort of reports that they do...
But you're right, the media thrives on doom and gloom. How long did we have to hear them blather on about the housing bubble before it burst? Years... and years...
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 26,191
- 4,856
- 126
Jan 30 is the advanced release date for the Q4 of 2008.
What we have is a situation which is very similar to 1929. And in 1929 the GDP was growing (growing pretty strongly I might add). Any graph or comment that the GDP is doing fine now isn't looking into the possible changes in the near future. There is a fundamental disconnect between discussing what happened in the 3rd quarter of 2008 and what will happen in 2009.
WhipperSnapper
Lifer
- Oct 30, 2004
- 11,442
- 32
- 91
This op-ed which more or less says something similar may be of interest:
Somber Thought for the New Year--Will There Be a Recovery?
http://www.vdare.com/roberts/090105_recovery.htm
"ADP National Employment Report Shows U.S. Employment Decreased by 693,000 Private Sector Jobs in December"
http://money.cnn.com/news/news...marketwire/0464178.htm
http://money.cnn.com/news/news...marketwire/0464178.htm
ebaycj
Diamond Member
- Mar 9, 2002
- 5,418
- 0
- 0
Both "inflation" and "unemployment" have conveniently changed definitions since 1980 and 1982 respectively.
"inflation" is based on the CPI, which used to be historically accurate until they started allowing "product substituitons". i.e. hamburger meat in the place of steak. Also they have recently taken energy and transportation costs out of the CPI equation, because had they left them in, the numbers would have looked bad.
"unemployment" has also been re-defined recently, to include less people, in order to make the numbers look better.
Making the numbers look better is all fine and good, but it really wrecks the historical accuracy of any reporting.
I bet if you performed the same research/calculations that they were doing in the early 80's on today's economy, you would find that it is much bleaker than today's numbers reflect.
See, this is what really pisses me off. Incorrect data I can deal with, but outright lying, I cannot.
1. The substitutions aren't from steak to hamburger. They are from one type of steak to another, suggesting what people would eat given the relative price increases/decreases in prices within the same classification of goods, mean-wise, if the goods increase in price at the same rate, nothing is substituted. If I see rump roast at 20% more than last week, but prime rib at the same price, I'd switch to prime rib because it's a better deal. Overall, if somebody is used to filet mignon, they will keep eating filet mignon, because it's the same standard of living, which the BLS keeps in mind. However, if filet goes up 20% while flank steak goes down 20%, then somebody may substitute to flank steak. I'd suggest you read up on the actual calculations.
2. They didn't take energy and transportation out of CPI. They release two CPI numbers, as has always been the case, "core" and commonly known as "headline". Headline includes energy and FOOD (transportation is not removed).
2. Give me proof that unemployment definition has changed.
All good financial and economic analysts know the pitfalls of all of the economic data releases. Core CPI is good for measuring everything outside of food/energy, which can be highly volatile (as we saw this year), which aids in economic modeling. The unemployement figures don't include "under employment", or "want full time employment" because several factors. Namely, wanting full-time employment is transitory psychologically speaking. Underemployment can be willful or not, depending on time period and personal situation.
TheSlamma
Diamond Member
- Sep 6, 2005
- 7,625
- 5
- 81
LOL, I said this same thing above.. it's ineffective.
Something about quality of life.. Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about but I can say this.. if I could get a job in Hawaii for $40K a year or a Job in Iowa for $80K a year, I'd go to Hawaii
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
LOL, I said this same thing above.. it's ineffective.
Something about quality of life.. Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about but I can say this.. if I could get a job in Hawaii for $40K a year or a Job in Iowa for $80K a year, I'd go to Hawaii
Wait, CAD is from Iowa? No wonder he's so angry.
ebaycj
Diamond Member
- Mar 9, 2002
- 5,418
- 0
- 0
That is an interesting point. If America was so prosperous due to limited competition / large communist countries, why on earth have we been trying for the last 25 years to ship our jobs/skills out and create democracies out of communism/dictatorships?
Makes you think twice about the wisdom of "promoting democracy abroad" that the 'pubs are so proud of.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Yeah, because there is no need for our services here...:roll:
Ofcourse we could find more if we were located elsewhere but our customers are here.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
LOL, I said this same thing above.. it's ineffective.
Something about quality of life.. Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about but I can say this.. if I could get a job in Hawaii for $40K a year or a Job in Iowa for $80K a year, I'd go to Hawaii
That's just fine with us here, you probably wouldn't fit in anyway if you think that way...
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