Originally posted by: RichardE
Originally posted by: chess9
Those are serious recession numbers for sure. Depression? Well, do we have a definition for Depression we can all agree on?
It's bad out there, very bad. My brother lost his job and when he went looking for a job (restaurant industry) he said employers told him they were getting 300-500 applicants for openings because restaurants are closing all over America. It's been a hard hit industry because people can't afford to eat out. Hell, some can't afford to eat IN.
Why do the Republicans seem to think times are fine, and the Dems think the world is coming to an end?(Actually, the Dems are closer to right than the Republicans, IMHO.)
-Robert
Which is why I'm glad my current job, I have two, once at a bar I might lose, but the restaurant job caters to a lot of recession proof type clientele and the staff is extremely low turnover. I will bend over backwards to keep this job until times get better. If one things recessions do is make workers more efficient
Yes, the best restaurants are doing ok still. One of my friends has 4 restaurants, and three of them are doing ok because he opened the first one 23 years ago, so having an established clientele really helps. Even so, if you drive around suburbia here in Florida in the space of 30 minutes you will find 30 shuttered restaurants. And usually it's a smallish restaurant in a strip mall.
My brother applied for unemployment compensation and he said the woman could not tell him when he'd hear about his check because 'we have over 100,00 claims backlogged'.
If you have a job, keep it!
-Robert
I didn't offer that your company sucks, at all, CSG. OTOH, "trying" to hire people over an 8 year period indicates some fundamental disconnect between supply and demand... and it's not like qualified people don't exist... whatever field you're talking about.
There is a fundamental disconnect between supply and demand, you already evidenced it. Oversupply of unskilled people in a tight job market. Good IT people have no problems finding jobs either. I've been looking 6 months for a qualified PM, and it took me another 6 months to hire a qualified app dev manager. Not one single qualified, unemployed application for either.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
uhh... hello? Do you not understand math? Yes, we've hired many so it isn't like we haven't been able to find and hire people. Some have left over that time which tends to happen in our field. But anyway the FACT is, we have been hiring for 8 years and still are right now because we are looking at turning down work again this year because we have too much of it.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Yep, that seems to be what we seem to be seeing - an over supply of unskilled people when payrolls are being cut to shave costs.
zephyrprime
Diamond Member
- Feb 18, 2001
- 7,512
- 2
- 81
They're the ones that are right. You have blinders on. This IS the worst since the great depression. The underlying problems are much worse than the problems faced in 1980 or 1982. It is only a matter of time now as we wait for more dominoes to fall.
IMO, one of the reasons for 'oversupply' of unskilled people is that companies are completely failing to give employees any sort of decent training. A highly-trained individual is seldom looking for a job - especially in an upside-down economy where people are keeping their jobs moreso than normal. Companies need to be more willing to train fresh people out of college. It's stupid to say there's an oversupply of unskilled people.. Skill them!
Also, the unemployment numbers are bullshit. There are a TON of unemployed people. What's the percentage? A TON. How much? A FREAKIN LOT.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
"train fresh people out of college" :laugh: Don't you think that people fresh out of college should have learned something while they were threre? Sure, they won't have EXPERIENCE but they should have SKILLS.
But unfortunately you are more right than you know but it is completely off topic.
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
Originally posted by: chess9
Those are serious recession numbers for sure. Depression? Well, do we have a definition for Depression we can all agree on?
It's bad out there, very bad. My brother lost his job and when he went looking for a job (restaurant industry) he said employers told him they were getting 300-500 applicants for openings because restaurants are closing all over America. It's been a hard hit industry because people can't afford to eat out. Hell, some can't afford to eat IN.
Why do the Republicans seem to think times are fine, and the Dems think the world is coming to an end?
-Robert
This is why I just opened a liquor store, like a grocery I figure people will go to the source instead of bars/restaurants. As always there is opportunity. And I figure if I go broke at least I have 75K of liquor to drown my sorrows.
Either that or college supplies a set of general skills that individual businesses tailor to their specific needs. You know, how it really works?
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
You mean how it may but that doesn't mean it works - which is again going to go way off topic. But again - you learn SKILL via training. People go to college for TRAINING. They should really only be lacking experience and skill mastery when leaving. Unfortunately though college is just a bunch of mental masturbation any more. I've seen kids come out of 3 different schools who make their EE piece of paper look like the cartoon page. Seriously - college is basically a joke anymore as it's pulled away from businesses while building the barriers around itself(academia)
Back to topic?
Sure it is. I guess you can always be trusted for a right wing rant against colleges, no matter how ill founded or hilariously ignorant you come off sounding. But by all means, return to the topic. You're CAD afterall, all we're doing now is saving ourselves from another one of your multi page flailing descents into pedantry and eye rolling emoticons.
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 26,191
- 4,856
- 126
As it is, the economy is no where near depression levels. But, there are many signs that are quite similar to the depression. If anything that is significantly negative happens, it may easily spiral us from recession to depression.
Of course, we have to first determine a definition for a depression. All economic downturns used to be called depressions, until the great depression came along. Then they invented the term "recession" to define a smaller scale depression. One fairly well approved definition says ?If the GDP drops by less than 10%, it is a recession; if GDP drops my more than 10%, it is a depression.? Using that definition, the US has had two depressions. There was a big depression in the early 1930s and a smaller depression in the late 1930s. Together the two were called the great depression. At the moment, we are not even close to that definition. But we could eventually reach that definition in this downturn.
The great depression had a few important factors. There was a stock market boom that ended. The stock values fell 52% from their peaks, had a dead cat bounce, then fell again. There was a real estate boom (prices 4x higher) in the mid 1920s that ended (the construction boom ended in 1928, one year before the start of the great depression). There was deflation that regularly set prices down between 0.59% and 2.05% in almost every month. Finally, consumer spending dropped 10% even though business spending and government spending were actually UP in the early 1930s. About 1.5 years into the depression unemployment rose from 3.2% to 8.7%
What do we have today? The S&P fell 52% from it?s peak, and is in the middle of a bounce. There was a real estate boom that ended (average prices are already down 21% and still falling). New home construction is down 72% so far in this real estate bust. While deflation isn?t a certainty yet, the CPI did just fall 1.92% in November (the 2nd largest monthly drop ever) and 1.01% in October (which was the largest drop since the depression until November hit) and it fell in September and August. Consumer spending has decreased and if you include ONLY the ending of easy home refinance cash, then consumer spending must fall at least 7%. If anything else bad happens, the consumer will easily reach the 10% drop in spending only seen in the great depression. About a year into this mess and the unemployment rate went from 4.7% to 6.7%.
The major facts seem quite similar. Aside from the unemployment rate only going up to 6.7% instead of 8.7%, the stats are nearly identical for the start of the great depression to what we have now.
Of course, we have to first determine a definition for a depression. All economic downturns used to be called depressions, until the great depression came along. Then they invented the term "recession" to define a smaller scale depression. One fairly well approved definition says ?If the GDP drops by less than 10%, it is a recession; if GDP drops my more than 10%, it is a depression.? Using that definition, the US has had two depressions. There was a big depression in the early 1930s and a smaller depression in the late 1930s. Together the two were called the great depression. At the moment, we are not even close to that definition. But we could eventually reach that definition in this downturn.
The great depression had a few important factors. There was a stock market boom that ended. The stock values fell 52% from their peaks, had a dead cat bounce, then fell again. There was a real estate boom (prices 4x higher) in the mid 1920s that ended (the construction boom ended in 1928, one year before the start of the great depression). There was deflation that regularly set prices down between 0.59% and 2.05% in almost every month. Finally, consumer spending dropped 10% even though business spending and government spending were actually UP in the early 1930s. About 1.5 years into the depression unemployment rose from 3.2% to 8.7%
What do we have today? The S&P fell 52% from it?s peak, and is in the middle of a bounce. There was a real estate boom that ended (average prices are already down 21% and still falling). New home construction is down 72% so far in this real estate bust. While deflation isn?t a certainty yet, the CPI did just fall 1.92% in November (the 2nd largest monthly drop ever) and 1.01% in October (which was the largest drop since the depression until November hit) and it fell in September and August. Consumer spending has decreased and if you include ONLY the ending of easy home refinance cash, then consumer spending must fall at least 7%. If anything else bad happens, the consumer will easily reach the 10% drop in spending only seen in the great depression. About a year into this mess and the unemployment rate went from 4.7% to 6.7%.
The major facts seem quite similar. Aside from the unemployment rate only going up to 6.7% instead of 8.7%, the stats are nearly identical for the start of the great depression to what we have now.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
It's fully founded and backed - it's just offtopic as I stated in the first post you flapped your gums after. If you have a problem with what I've stated we'll find an appropriate thread to hash it out in. Likely you won't like the outcome but that wouldn't be new since you seem to have a very difficult time with logic and rationale.
Again - OJT isn't free and it costs $. I think a lot of you young kids fail to understand that(not your fault perse since you weren't told the realities of the world) yet you come out with your piece of paper and expect big $ and kush jobs. Sorry but you still have to prove yourselves - this is the real world - you earn your way now. You are supposed to be skilled - not unskilled since you have that piece of paper.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Yeah, you should try living with the rest of us here in REALITY instead of your little bubble world. Or maybe that's why you are in the bubble world - you couldn't hack the real world... Hmm... that's my bet.
Now back to the topic...
What bubble world do you think I live in? I guarantee you I've seen more of the real world then you ever have.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Is your e-penis bigger too? :roll:
Yes, you on multiple occasions have made claims that you "smack"ed me when you just couldn't wrap your little head around the realities of it. Your bubble world seems to consist only that which you want to hear and understand. The rest is just ignored.
Meh... stay ignorant if you wish...
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