The very first real news to come shortly after 5 pm.

[mshan]

Sounds like if it is a question of Obama 303 or Obama 332.

Ed Henry on Fox said he talked with someone from Obama campaign who said Florida was extremely tight (probably won't know till after 2 AM), Virginia has strong African American turnout, and mid-west firewall (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconin) is holding strongly.

He said he talked with Romney campaign who said their turnout was strong, but no more specifics were mentioned.

 

[hal2kilo]

I assume PST?

 

[mshan]

My guess is he meant 2 AM EST for Florida.

Florida, just like North Carolina, would just be icing on the cake for Obama:

"Although this calculation might seem involved, the way to read the voting index is relatively straightforward. In Missouri, for example, the index is Republican plus 6.7 points. What this means is that if the popular vote were exactly tied nationally, we’d expect the Republican candidate to carry Missouri by 6.7 percentage points."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...tell-different-tales-about-state-of-campaign/

 

[mshan]

Fox just said that Virginia has agreed to stop reporting vote counts for an hour because of all people waiting in line.

Again, sounds like Obama has won Virginia, but don't want people to leave polls when they hear state called for Obama already.

I kind of sense Romney is going to get stomped on in popular vote margin, in relation to expectations (2 points or less).

Sam Wang was thinking 4% is possible, which was on high end of his confidence intervals.

Fox is also calling Florida too early to call, though I don't know if they do or do not use the too close to close option. Did they about an hour ago that Obama was up in Hillsborough (Tampa) and around Orlando, which is surprising...

 

[shortylickens]

Fox just said that Virginia has agreed to stop reporting vote counts for an hour because of all people waiting in line.

Again, sounds like Obama has won Virginia, but don't want people to leave polls when they hear state called for Obama already.

I kind of sense Romney is going to get stomped on in popular vote margin, in relation to expectations (2 points or less).

Sam Wang was thinking 4% is possible, which was on high end of his confidence intervals.

Fox is also calling Florida too early to call, though I don't know if they do or do not use the too close to close option. Did they about an hour ago that Obama was up in Hillsborough (Tampa) and around Orlando, which is surprising...

Yeah this is why I dont like reporting before everyone votes. Folks may get disheartened. And when its a close margin in a particular state, its even worse.

On the other hand, if voters werent so wishy-washy and wimpy, we wouldnt have any fucking problems.
People should have their damn minds made up before they even get to the polls.