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The US government has a $20.4 TRILLION dollars retirement problem

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American culture has changed. No longer is it the usual value to save.

Actually Americans have generally been saving more since the recession. Still has a ways to go but its headed in the right direction

I think it holds true when you consider the last 1 or 2 decades of company-sponsored 401ks moving their funds to high fee, high cost, fund managers where the absurd fees more or less eliminate most, if not all of those gains over years.

The market share the big firms (Vanguard, Fidelity, Black Rock etc) have that offer low fee options is enormous and covers the majority of assets invested in 40x plans. Even if we look at the 1% ER that is estimated to be the average among 401k plans you are still comparing that to an annualized, dividend reinvested return of 7.27% for the DJIA over the last 10 years. That also allows plenty of wiggle room before we even get close to "eliminate most of those gains over those years"

We could discuss the makeup of funds (obviously my example above isn't the lower bond return) and investing habits that lead to actual returns but if a 401k isn't returning very much its not because of the structure of the 401(k) system and an article saying 401(k)s aren't returning very much is misleading.

Well, not so. When you open each fund and start looking at the details, you see what most with some general knowledge of this would expect. For Vanguard, low is about what you expect from Vanguard: about 0.19% for each fund, so 0.4% total across those two, granted, this is still quite high for Vanguard in my experience, but still pretty low for these actively managed funds that Fidelity would lump their own fees into. For the one Fidelity fund (about 20% of that portfolio), the "equally low" fee structure was like this: 0.12, + 0.07 + 0.13 + 0.5 + 0.24. or something like that.

You might want to double check what is actually being charged. I believe the listed ER for the 'parent' fund is required to be the total ER charged regardless of whatever ER fees are for any other funds it includes. I know in practice I have a fund that contains others funds and the 'parent' ER is the only ER that is charged and should, therefore, reflect whatever ER is required to go to its included funds (if any)

....my overall argument being that 401k really aren't as secure and as valuable as many of the promoters, managers, and sellers of these things to the companies that buy them want you to think. Slowly but surely, we have actively allowed these conmen to silently replace employee retirement funds (once pensions) with this wonderful! 401k program that involves far, far more attention from the individual employee.

Well - this thread is about the massive monetary shortfalls that pensions are facing so that would seem to indicate the pensions and pension like systems are not without some pretty significant problems. Sure there haven't been any big defaults and non-covered failures yet but the pressure is only getting worse. To me it looks far more likely that 401k assets will be available than pension assets. You argue that the individual has to pay more attention for 401k plans but that is clearly the case for pensions as well. Just take a look at the fraud cases where people have gone to jail for complete and utter mismanagement of pensions. If someone is fucking up your pension its a helluva lot harder to get them to stop

we are being cleverly lulled into the notion that we must trust our lordly financial advisers and account managers, the brilliant stewards of these noble hedge funds and mutual funds, because "this shit is too complicated for you frightened peons, so please, just accept these "low fees" and live comfortably."

The people in charge of the pensions were already lulled into that notion. There is a well established history of that.

Perhaps we are collectively lulled into the acceptance of professional trust
(snip)
the people in charge are good honest folk that I should trust as well as my doctor or nutritionist or whoever's job it is to put my interests before theirs'...right?

Honestly I'm skeptical of anyone doing their job and start with 'trust but verify'. While there are obviously plenty of professionals who are excellent at their jobs I have seen far too many people who are bad at their jobs to just trust someone else implicitly to look out for my best interests.
 
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Good for you Mai, but at least 50% of America lives day to day.

This wouldn't be so much of a problem if the Government stopped making it so expensive to live. They keep giving away minimum wages, etc., which only make it more expensive when I go to the grocery store.

-John

If it makes you feel any better, the children that are picking the produce you eat are making shit money, even if the cashier is getting a whole $7 an hour.
 
Good for you Mai, but at least 50% of America lives day to day.

This wouldn't be so much of a problem if the Government stopped making it so expensive to live. They keep giving away minimum wages, etc., which only make it more expensive when I go to the grocery store.

-John
Zork,

The government doesn't have much influence on the expense of food, housing, and big ticket items. So, to blame the government isn't the answer. It solves nothing.

It all starts with the individual. There are plenty of jobs available. There are still plenty of people who are becoming millionaires. Did you know that there are 18 year old You Tubers who are pulling in $100k plus a year? That's the same with Twitch and other online platforms.

Way too many people today believe in scarity. That there are only a few good jobs, and they are only given to a few lucky people. That's not true. My sister works as a programmer. Pulls in $120k a year and works at home. This is a woman who works in a male dominated field. Plus, she's gay! Everyone on ATOT could pull in $100m and no one would even notice. There is so much money available in the world. You just need to get your mindset right. Think abundance instead of scarity. Put your mind on making money and you'll have greater success attracting it. America still produces the most millionaires in the world. Also, an immigrant is 3X more likely to becoming wealthy than people born right here in America. You want more money? Look at what the immigrants are doing. Obviously, they are doing something right.

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Actually Americans have generally been saving more since the recession. Still has a ways to go but its headed in the right direction



The market share the big firms (Vanguard, Fidelity, Black Rock etc) have that offer low fee options is enormous and covers the majority of assets invested in 40x plans. Even if we look at the 1% ER that is estimated to be the average among 401k plans you are still comparing that to an annualized, dividend reinvested return of 7.27% for the DJIA over the last 10 years. That also allows plenty of wiggle room before we even get close to "eliminate most of those gains over those years"

We could discuss the makeup of funds (obviously my example above isn't the lower bond return) and investing habits that lead to actual returns but if a 401k isn't returning very much its not because of the structure of the 401(k) system and an article saying 401(k)s aren't returning very much is misleading.



You might want to double check what is actually being charged. I believe the listed ER for the 'parent' fund is required to be the total ER charged regardless of whatever ER fees are for any other funds it includes. I know in practice I have a fund that contains others funds and the 'parent' ER is the only ER that is charged and should, therefore, reflect whatever ER is required to go to its included funds (if any)



Well - this thread is about the massive monetary shortfalls that pensions are facing so that would seem to indicate the pensions and pension like systems are not without some pretty significant problems. Sure there haven't been any big defaults and non-covered failures yet but the pressure is only getting worse. To me it looks far more likely that 401k assets will be available than pension assets. You argue that the individual has to pay more attention for 401k plans but that is clearly the case for pensions as well. Just take a look at the fraud cases where people have gone to jail for complete and utter mismanagement of pensions. If someone is fucking up your pension its a helluva lot harder to get them to stop



The people in charge of the pensions were already lulled into that notion. There is a well established history of that.



Honestly I'm skeptical of anyone doing their job and start with 'trust but verify'. While there are obviously plenty of professionals who are excellent at their jobs I have seen far too many people who are bad at their jobs to just trust someone else implicitly to look out for my best interests.

All good points. I didn't mean to defend pension funds as somehow being incorruptible (like you, I believe that their inherent "closed" nature, managed by a board of trustees that are subjected to endless marketing wizards trying to convince them of terrific! funds within which to toss that giant pot, is potentially much worse than a 401k class investment, where you at least have individual choice to re-balance and transfer investments, and the information regarding fees and management is there, even if you have to dig for it)

I mention them only because they were, for a very long, the primary model of retirement that created "the american dream" that was, for several decades, the Norman Rockwell idea of the Great Middle Class. For 2 or 3 generations, you have employees with a very-well established plan that if you work for this company for 3 decades, which was very common, you can retire with x amount of money, and here is how it works.

Simple...and it worked. Underlying corruption and failed investments, geopolitical and internal economic forces that may have been problematic beneath that model, really didn't matter because it still worked for the vast majority of people, for a very long time. No one needed to understand even the simplest tools of finance underlying Pension funds (now mutual funds, Stock Index funds, etc), because it simply worked for so long. It is because of this that I think the idea is so embedded in the American psyche--it is very likely just as mythical and improbable as the "bootstraps" meme that never seems to die.

But these kind of issues happen with massive paradigm shifts that began in the mid to late 80s with the erosion of that Pension model (S&L scandal being part of that, right?) being replaced, i large part, by 401ks.

Finance was never a part of the common curriculum, and it still isn't. Not beyond learning a few simple formulas like compound interest, though that rarely being applied to real-world use. I mean, all I recall being taught is that this is the Shampoo formula! Hey, that's easy to remember...OK, so what is the point? Why do I need to learn this crap; is it a real tool?

Individual savings and investment management is simply not something that we are raised to believe as being a fundamental skill, even though we have effectively "decided" that it is a fundamental skill in the real world. I was still being taught how to write in cursive when I was in 3rd grade...and parents today complain that this is being phased out...why? Do you think your kids need that tool as some fundamental real world use? lolno.

Outdated tools like that are always replaced, and math and stats need a core finance curriculum beginning ~6th grade at the latest, because when you look at the posts and links above, how the vast majority of Americans fail to save in alarming numbers, you can't really see that as anything but a fundamental failure at educating us for contemporary life skills. Our parents simply didn't need to learn this stuff, because it truly was taken care of for them. Now, at the same time, we have dozens of adds running every evening for ETrade and Merryl Lynch, Scotttrade and Prudential and all of these retirement and investment tools that convince us that the skills needed to invest are for the elite: these super smart fund managers that you should really trust to do this for you. Don't worry, we have low fees! and will carefully guide you through these scary glass houses with the easiest of care and your money i safe! Just give us that meager 1% for this super smart manager on top of our 1.5-2% fund fees because we said it's cheap--just trust us! That's a small number!

--and yes--like I said earlier, those fees can be tolerable if the returns actually justify it (but after inflation, and the fact that plenty of these jokers are actively investing in shitty hedgefunds, on top of illegal practices like churning), it's a bit of jungle that one has to wade through to make proper decisions for themselves. Most employer-sponsored plans absolutely do offer wonderful, low-fee funds as you said--but these are never the default option on boarding. Which goes back to my learned behavior problem--A skill that is fundamentally required of primary education, yet all of the marketing wizards out there are currently working their asses off for these firms to convince us that these skills are just too darn hard to learn.
 
I'm not going to disagree with your sentiment but thats not the reality that we live in and its far better to address the realities of the environment than ignore it because people should be doing something different. As the financial crisis clearly outlined the actions of the many can affect your life whether you are responsible or not. For this reason I think something along the lines of SS is a good thing - not because I directly benefit financially from it but because the environment I live in is more predictable and stable (among a few other reasons)
We individually make the world we live in. True, we have little to no control over government regulation and taxes, but that's almost always a minority of our spending.
 
Finance was never a part of the common curriculum, and it still isn't.

There has been (still is?) a big push to make financial education part of curriculum but it has run into a giant hurdle: studies being done show it basically doesn't work. So far the only success story was one case where the lessons were repeated frequently throughout the year for multiple years in a row. Given the pressure school curriculum are already in to fit in various classes this means the pressure needs to (and should) fall on the parents to do parenting

Our parents simply didn't need to learn this stuff, because it truly was taken care of for them.

Thats not true. At its peak only 46% of people were covered by pensions. I'm not all that familiar with retiring in the 70s or 80s but with that being the case I would think the advent of 401(k)s and IRAs in the mid to late 70s actually made it easier for people since it would lead to far greater coverage

https://www.russell.com/documents/institutional-investors/research/defined-benefit-plans-a-brief-history.pdf

Most employer-sponsored plans absolutely do offer wonderful, low-fee funds as you said--but these are never the default option on boarding. Which goes back to my learned behavior problem--A skill that is fundamentally required of primary education, yet all of the marketing wizards out there are currently working their asses off for these firms to convince us that these skills are just too darn hard to learn.

I have no data on this but my experience has been that the default plans are target date funds with low to medium fees

Personally I think the issue has less to do with marketing and more to do with the taboo we assign to discussions of money. For some reason its become common to think that discussions of handling money has to include current day dollar amounts and that makes people uncomfortable. When I help people they always seem to end up telling me account balances even though I don't often ask and its possible to get through much of it with percents, ratios and recommended end balances

As such its become an intensely personal venture that people think should only be discussed with your adviser, tax person and, maybe, your spouse. This leads to knowledge silos despite the plethora of resources out there

There are other psychological barriers like delayed gratification, lack of patience, a lack of willingness to admit mistakes or ignorance, and the need to always be able to proclaim great returns if asked. (I think the psychological issues are what makes education so difficult. It takes repeated reminders to be able to overcome something that starts out more ingrained)
 
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We individually make the world we live in. True, we have little to no control over government regulation and taxes, but that's almost always a minority of our spending.

You can certainly try to change the course but that doesn't mean you should ignore or not plan for the current course you are on
 
There has been (still is?) a big push to make financial education part of curriculum but it has run into a giant hurdle: studies being done show it basically doesn't work. So far the only success story was one case where the lessons were repeated frequently throughout the year for multiple years in a row. Given the pressure school curriculum are already in to fit in various classes this means the pressure needs to (and should) fall on the parents to do parenting



Thats not true. At its peak only 46% of people were covered by pensions. I'm not all that familiar with retiring in the 70s or 80s but with that being the case I would think the advent of 401(k)s and IRAs in the mid to late 70s actually made it easier for people since it would lead to far greater coverage

https://www.russell.com/documents/institutional-investors/research/defined-benefit-plans-a-brief-history.pdf



I have no data on this but my experience has been that the default plans are target date funds with low to medium fees

Personally I think the issue has less to do with marketing and more to do with the taboo we assign to discussions of money. For some reason its become common to think that discussions of handling money has to include current day dollar amounts and that makes people uncomfortable. When I help people they always seem to end up telling me account balances even though I don't often ask and its possible to get through much of it with percents, ratios and recommended end balances

As such its become an intensely personal venture that people think should only be discussed with your adviser, tax person and, maybe, your spouse. This leads to knowledge silos despite the plethora of resources out there

There are other psychological barriers like delayed gratification, lack of patience, a lack of willingness to admit mistakes or ignorance, and the need to always be able to proclaim great returns if asked. (I think the psychological issues are what makes education so difficult. It takes repeated reminders to be able to overcome something that starts out more ingrained)

Good points and I appreciate your perspective on this, particularly the psychological aspect of it. It's weird to me, I guess, because money never was that important to me. Not to say that I never valued it, it's just that when I didn't, did, do or don't have it never made much of a difference to me.

I look back at all the stupid, or simply lazy things I did in the past and say, well, ir only....but then realize that I wouldn't be able to make such brilliant decision about the future, today (hindsight and all that). At the same time, I've become less interested in fixing past me than I am in fixing present and future me.

It seems far easier to address something that can actually be addressed and for that, I'm not really ashamed about past inefficiencies. At least I never stumbled into any kind of debt 😀

Also, I speak harshly of advisers and industries but I know it is an unfair brush. Honestly, part of my frustration about past me is not going into a gig like that (but I always hated math and, well, money never interested me. :\)
 
I always knew a real retirement was not in my future, I plan to die at work.
To be honest, I like work. I love my job. When I was working 10- 12 hour days in South Korea as an ESL teacher I liked it. It kept me focused on saving money, and I had goals.

I don't get this attitude that many people have towards work. You need goals and something to wake up to every morning. The first thing I do is write down my goals. I do this in the morning and I do this before I go to bed. It keeps me motivated and energized. I don't watch much TV anymore, so I'm not up late at night. I've noticed this with people that I've worked with in the past. They'll stay up late, get little sleep, and come into work and bitch that they're tired. And that work sucks and they can't wait until the weekend.

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I always knew a real retirement was not in my future, I plan to die at work.

that's another option. and fuck it...why not?

or die penniless while traveling the world on container ships and freight trains; as long as you love it.

...and leave some unopened letters and become a legend taught to 7th and 15th grade classes for decades after. :hmm:
 
I post on topic.

You on the other hand, attack.

-John

That's a good one 🙂

b8hxUCa.jpg
 
Yeah, it's funny how Republicans have basically broken all of the unions -except the public employee unions that employ cops and firemen. Why is that? Teachers can get like a $40k retirement income, while cops and firemen get $100- $200k retirement pay.
I know a cop who retired on a $100k per year retirement, and then he got another job in a different town for $150k, he's making $250k-I'm pretty sure he's not a college graduate.
Damn, I knew I should have been a firefighter. Some of the firemen here make $300k.
 
Zork,

The government doesn't have much influence on the expense of food, housing, and big ticket items. So, to blame the government isn't the answer. It solves nothing.

Are you saying food prices wouldn't drop over time if the government were to repeal all the New Deal agricultural subsidies tomorrow?

The federal government owns half the land in the Western United States, most of it completely uninhabited wilderness. If they were open to selling some of that land to the states, are you saying there wouldn't be more supply, and consequently a lowering of housing prices in many of these states? Of course zoning laws would be a driving force, but assuming the states relax some of the construction permits with access to a lot more land, housing prices could be affected quite a bit.

As far as big ticket items, of course the Federal government has a huge effect on prices of consumer goods. Any manufactured goods in the United States has to deal with enormous regulatory overhead by the EPA and state environmental agencies. These regulations tend to lobbied for by big corporations because they know it drives out competition and allows them to increase prices, and hence increase their profits. They have the lawyers and the compliance departments to deal with federal agencies that throw fines and cite you for obscure statute violations that destroy smaller companies.
 
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According to one study, the median balance of workers' retirement accounts — including 401(k)s, IRAs, etc. — is $63,000. By age group, the data looks like this:

People in their 20s have a median retirement savings of $16,000.
For people in their 30s it's $45,000.
For people in their 40s it's $63,000.
For people in their 50s it's $117,000.
For people in their 60s it's $172,000.

Source: Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...-american-has-much-saved-retirement/82341426/
 
That is not much money at all. Also, what if something major happens?

*What if we have another contraction like we had in 2008?

*What if the cost of everyday items skyrocket and cost much more than they presently do.

*What if you outlive your savings?

*What of you have a family member that needs help and you can't be there for them.

*What if you come down with a major illness. I saw this firsthand. My uncle came down with Parkinson's disease. Luckily for him he was a millionaire. He was able to have people take care of him around the clock. Had the best of everything. If he only had $200k saved, he would have blew thru his savings a 1-2 years easily.

Many people are under the false assumption that the life they are currently enjoying is going to stay the same. Well it's not. You need to be fully prepared and having an abundance of money is a good way to ensure that you're able to have the freedom to do what you want whenever you want.

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