The Truth behind Japan's stagnation.

[fskimospy]

That's all it took for you to convince yourself...

That didn't even make sense.

 

[Narmer]

Japan's problem is similar to Europes. It has a rigid labor system that prohibits the creation of new jobs. This creates a two-tiered labor system that is strangling the young (outsiders) and protecting the old (insiders). Also, Japanese companies are reluctant to lend to new/young companies and Japanese students are fleeing for the safety of large companies instead of starting a new one.

With that said, the Japanese economy is doing much better than many people realize (it grew faster than America's) thanks to the resiliency of businesses and despite crushing deflation and currency rises. Also, despite nearly two decades of retrenchment, their unemployment rate is roughly 5% and they have a much bigger surplus with the world than many people assume.

 

[zephyrprime]

Well, he seems to have developed a mental cataract since then, and is now preaching to inflate a debt bubble.

So what? How does what he preach have any negating effect on what he predicted earlier?

 

[jman19]

That's all it took for you to convince yourself...

You're the one who made the claim, you back it up.

 

[jman19]

I don't see why we shouldn't abolish DUI laws.

Maybe because enough innocent people die from DUI already?

 

[zephyrprime]

The article could have mentioned that there was no growth since Japan's workforce is shrinking (even their population is now shrinking).

The article could have mentioned that there was no growth since people under age 35 (young and creative) find it virutally impossible to get a job and instead those stodgy, old, seniority-based companies stick with people who have no new ideas.

The article could have mentioned that Japan's population is increasingly old (median age is past 50 now I believe) and a large percent is retired pensioners who aren't the type of people who rush out and spend on the latest clothing, gadgets, cars, etc. Thus, the GDP doesn't grow.

The article could have mentioned that Japan's biggest problem is that it is expected to have pensioners using up 40+% of Japan's GDP within the next 10 years for non-productive things. That is, extending the life-span of a retired person another year or two doesn't help future growth of the country's economy. It isn't projected to stop at 40+% either, it is projected to keep climbing.

No, instead the article mentions that the author's wife likes to watch the "Today Show" and that author thinks Erin Burnett is cute. I'm fairly convinced, then with that type of "proof" the article must be correct that Japan's problem is the US's federal reserve.

Almost all of what you mention are future problems. How did these future problems manage to cause Japan's decline which started nearly 20 years ago? The workforce in Japan has only shrunk a little so far.

The single reason for Japan's decline is the bubble they experienced and their unwillingness to write off all losses and reflate the economy via new liquidity. Attempts at QE have been laughable so far.

 

[xj0hnx]

Maybe because enough innocent people die from DUI already?

Not that I am for abolishing the DUI laws, but you don't really think that because DUI is against the law that the laws have saved anyone?

 

[fskimospy]

Not that I am for abolishing the DUI laws, but you don't really think that because DUI is against the law that the laws have saved anyone?

The NIH certainly seems to think it has:

http://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/arh23-1/31-39.pdf

 

[Anarchist420]

Maybe because enough innocent people die from DUI already?

The punishment for murder is enough of a deterrent.

 

[IronWing]

The punishment for murder is enough of a deterrent.

No, it's not. Drunks have to be hit in the wallet, hard, before they learn anything.

 

[CitizenKain]

If you look at Sony Game Systems, you can see it takes them like 10 years to come out with a new console. So maybe there are some other issues goiong on. Maybe they dont consider Game Consoles new technology and they have pushed a lot of things on the back burner. Then the Wii came out and they developed the Kinect for the X-Box fairly fast, even though they took a different set of technologies to develop this new concept of a person being a game controller, with no wires.

Video game consoles as an Economic indicator.

 

[xj0hnx]

The NIH certainly seems to think it has:

http://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/arh23-1/31-39.pdf

I'm sure they do, but I just can't take this seriously ...

The minimum drinking age laws are credited with
having saved increasing numbers of lives among the general U.S. population
since 1975.

I know we didn't give a flip about the law when we were drunken teenagers.

For the last three decades "Impaired Driving" fatalities have been on a pretty steady decline, you can simply say "The laws are working", or realize that there are a number of factors that can attribute to this, including advances in automobile crash safety, increases in designated drivers, or drunk taxis, people/bars/party throwers being more responsible. I'd like to see more in depth statistics before attributing it to laws.

No, it's not. Drunks have to be hit in the wallet, hard, before they learn anything

Yea, because being charged with manslaughter isn't going to carry the same weight as a fine

 

[yllus]

Video game consoles as an Economic indicator.

I like that he compared one Japanese company to another one as part of his competitive analysis.

 

[Munky]

So what? How does what he preach have any negating effect on what he predicted earlier?

You're the one who made the claim, you back it up.

Because Japan already tried 20 years ago the same thing our policy makers are trying now. It also started with keeping insolvent zombie banks alive, and quantitative easing. And it didn't work.

 

[IronWing]

Yea, because being charged with manslaughter isn't going to carry the same weight as a fine

To be charged with manslaughter means that someone had to die. DUI laws are designed as a deterrent to prevent that outcome of drunk driving from occurring. Try not to be quite so stupid in the future. It is tiresome to those with whom you interact.

 

[fskimospy]

I'm sure they do, but I just can't take this seriously ...



I know we didn't give a flip about the law when we were drunken teenagers.

For the last three decades "Impaired Driving" fatalities have been on a pretty steady decline, you can simply say "The laws are working", or realize that there are a number of factors that can attribute to this, including advances in automobile crash safety, increases in designated drivers, or drunk taxis, people/bars/party throwers being more responsible. I'd like to see more in depth statistics before attributing it to laws.



Yea, because being charged with manslaughter isn't going to carry the same weight as a fine

The survey directly compares states that applied more strict DUI laws to those that left theirs alone, and there was a statistically significant decrease in deaths in excess of the national trend downwards.

 

[jman19]

The punishment for murder is enough of a deterrent.

Doesn't seem like much of a deterrent.

 

[jman19]

Because Japan already tried 20 years ago the same thing our policy makers are trying now. It also started with keeping insolvent zombie banks alive, and quantitative easing. And it didn't work.

That wasn't so hard, was it?

 

[xj0hnx]

The survey directly compares states that applied more strict DUI laws to those that left theirs alone, and there was a statistically significant decrease in deaths in excess of the national trend downwards.

So if laws are so effective, than how come even though there are many, many laws against teens smoking dope, more and more of them are year after year? How come the numbers continue to drop for DUI year after year, when the laws pretty much stay the same?

 

[fskimospy]

So if laws are so effective, than how come even though there are many, many laws against teens smoking dope, more and more of them are year after year? How come the numbers continue to drop for DUI year after year, when the laws pretty much stay the same?

Because more than one thing affects the crime rate.

 

[Dr. Zaus]

I don't see why we shouldn't abolish DUI laws.

Because you do not hold the protection of innocent people in high regard?

Not that I am for abolishing the DUI laws, but you don't really think that because DUI is against the law that the laws have saved anyone?

Yes, without a shadow of a doubt. If something is illegal and you might get caught and the penalty is strong you will see fewer people do said thing. Further, the drunks arrested for the activity are taken off the street and some even are behaviorally reinforced in such a way that they actually equate driving drunk with going to jail.

So yes; it does have an impact.

Not that I'm suggesting that you are mentally deficient, but did you post that with intent to fail?

The punishment for murder is enough of a deterrent.

Except that not every drunk that runes a life will be convicted of murder. The likelihood of being caught driving drunk, before ending someone's life, is much higher than after the fact.

If I start shooting a gun in at crowded open-air music festival, then the cops shouldn't arrest me until I actually HIT someone, right? My fear of the death penalty should stop me and the cops shouldn't do shit until someone has actually died, those first few shots that didn't actually hit anyone or anything of consequence... well that's just me exercising my rights.

... Or can we have laws against behaving recklessness with deadly objects?

I'm not sure which is worse; How incredibly stupid you are, or how incredibly stupid you must think anyone who reads the worthless crap that comes out of your mind is.

So if laws are so effective,

Arguing that something does not explain 100% of an outcome is not the same as arguing that it is 0% effective; stop with the stupid, I know your posts, you are NOT this dumb.


... sorry for being so vitriolic this post; but drunk driving upsets me greatly.

 

[Acanthus]

I don't see why we shouldn't abolish DUI laws.

because a large fraction of accidents are DUI's and the majority of accidents that result in fatalities are.

There is no big government DUI swindle.

 

[dullard]

Almost all of what you mention are future problems. How did these future problems manage to cause Japan's decline which started nearly 20 years ago? The workforce in Japan has only shrunk a little so far.

The single reason for Japan's decline is the bubble they experienced and their unwillingness to write off all losses and reflate the economy via new liquidity. Attempts at QE have been laughable so far.

I wouldn't call them all future problems. Lack of spending was one of my items on my list and that has occured for the last 15 years since the economy stopped rising. But, yes, many of those on that list are why Japan can't recover - not why it was bad in the first place.

You are correct that Japan had a massive bubble (approximately 15% GDP growth per year for 35 years from 1960 to 1995, when measured in current US dollars). To be stagnant near that bubble's peak (it is within 4% of that peak level) should be considered a great success. In other words, if Japan's GDP grew by a nice 6% level from 1960 to now, its economy would still be 7 times smaller than it is now! To me, to still have such a high GDP is a remarkable success. The bubble didn't pop, it is just slowly letting out air until it gets back to where it should have been. The problem, is when Japan gets back to where it should have been, all of the things on my list will prevent growth and Japan will be stagnant even longer.

I'm not certain if you said their attempt at QE was laughable or if the result was laughable. So, I don't know how to respond to your last sentence. What Japan tried was years too late and about 1/10th the size needed to make any impact. So, of course, they couldn't stop the bubble from deflating.

 

[feralkid]

I don't see why we shouldn't abolish DUI laws.

What the hell is wrong with you?

Would it have killed you to start a new thread?

 

[CycloWizard]

Toyota just had a massive recall and the CEO apologised. One of his key acknowlegements was that they had a breakdown in their Quality Standards and that was causing major problems. From an engineering perspective, they were cutting corners on cost and building cars with inferior parts. This dedication to quality probably has the side-effect of stifling new development or more likely it causes a slow-down in new development.

He apologized as part of the company's PR campaign. The US government did a hatchet job on its reputation as part of its attempt to keep US companies in the game. Only later did it come out that all of the problems were actually driver error, but that doesn't make a good headline - it sells a lot more papers when it says, "Toyota kills family in fireball of death!!1!"