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The Trump Tariffs thread

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I’m mostly stocking up on .556 and consumables.

We’ve replaced all of our appliances/electronic devices in the last year or so. Replacing the car is gonna suck hard, but we are prepared to take the hit.

I’m realllllly hoping my family gets dissuaded from dragging me to Orlando this summer. If we can get priced out of the Disney money pit I’ll consider that a massive silver lining.
 
Zoomers in 6 months apology letter to Millennials for helping sink them into the fourth recession of their lifetime because they were bored:

 
Josh128 said:
Trump is playing a "who blinks first" game with these tariffs. If companies like Vietnam, with a purported 97% tariff on imports from the US, come to the post and say "hey, OK, we'll lower our tariffs on US imports to 25%, Trump will drop the applied tariff on goods coming from them. That is the idea. If they refuse to budge and all their products coming to the US are suddenly 45% more, they will sell A LOT less of their product. Trump kind of has a lot of countries by the balls right now.

The US citizens, at least from my point of view, seem to be the most wasteful and frivolous spenders on the planet-- much of which is enabled by very cheap import products. Take that away and the whole game changes, not just for the USA, but for most of world. This is going to be a wild ride, Im very curious to see how it plays out.
Click to expand...
Those 'very cheap import products' are also known as 'products created more efficiently than in the US'. The problem here, as I'm sure you know, is that Trump's word is worthless. As the world just noticed with Canada and Mexico, making new deals with Trump is a waste of time because he will renege on them whenever he feels like it. They went through all that nonsense with USMCA and Trump just threw it away immediately.

Also, it's important to recognize that the purported tariff rates from Trump are calculated using the stupidest methodology ever devised. It's something a middle schooler could do and it has no bearing on reality. No joke, by Trump's logic if you go to the grocery store and spend $50 you now have a $50 trade deficit with the grocery store.

Amusingly enough the US government's own website notes that most tariffs in Vietnam are lower than 15%.

Vietnam - Import Tariffs

Includes information on average tariff rates and types that U.S. firms should be aware of when exporting to the market.
www.trade.gov www.trade.gov

There are two smart responses here:
1) Pull a China and sign a new deal with Trump and then just ignore it. Trump will either not notice or not care so long as word doesn't get out that makes him look weak. China just quietly ignored the deal and it essentially went away.

2) Bury the US in a trade sense so future presidents learn not to do this.
 
Roger Wilco said:
I’m mostly stocking up on .556 and consumables.

We’ve replaced all of our appliances/electronic devices in the last year or so. Replacing the car is gonna suck hard, but we are prepared to take the hit.

I’m realllllly hoping my family gets dissuaded from dragging me to Orlando this summer. If we can get priced out of the Disney money pit I’ll consider that a massive silver lining.
Click to expand...
Find a different theme park in a less shitty state to go to?
 
WilliamM2 said:
They snuck this into the CR:
reason.com

Congress just made it harder for Congress to block Trump's tariffs

Trump's reckless tariff policies are threatening to drive the economy into a ditch—and Congress just made it harder to take away the keys.
reason.com reason.com

Looks like it won't happen until next year at the soonest.
Click to expand...

As I understand it he used some different authorities that could be subject to a new resolution that isn't bound by them screwing with the clock on this one. Also if things go really south a discharge petition to pass the resolutions could become a reality.
 
NWRMidnight said:
He gets to pick the nominee, still had to be affirmed by Congress, so if Democrats take back the house/Senate, he won't be able to just stick his loyal Trump junk sucker in there.
Click to expand...
Except, of course, Democrats will just vote to allow him to put in whatever sycophants he nominates, because they need to pick their battles.
 
alien42 said:
turns out these morons used our trade deficit numbers...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1907559189234196942
Click to expand...


Yup

www.theguardian.com

Trump’s ‘idiotic’ and flawed tariff calculations stun economists

‘Willing sycophants’ came up with simplistic formula that has thrown global economy into disarray
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

For each country, the White House looked up its trade in goods deficit for 2024, then divided that by the total value of imports. Trump, to be “kind”, said he would, however, offer a discount, so halved that figure. The calculation was even distilled into a formula.

For example, take the figures for China:

Goods trade deficit: $291.9bn

Total goods imports: $438.9bn

Those figures divided = 0.67, or 67%

And halved = 34%

For countries without a large deficit, the White House applied a 10% baseline, ensuring tariffs would be applied regardless. This was the case for the UK, which the US Census Bureau reckons had an almost-$12bn surplus in 2024.

“[It is] quite an extraordinary calculation after months of work behind the scenes,” said Jim Reid, the global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank. “[It] didn’t add much confidence on there being an in-depth strategic implementation plan.”
Click to expand...


This is kind-of interesting

There are multiple problems with this – not least that it vastly oversimplifies the drivers of trade deficits. Trade deficits occur when a country buys more than it sells abroad. The US has run a deficit persistently since the 1970s. Typically trade deficits balance over time, as they create downward pressure on a country’s currency (as the result of demand for foreign currency, to buy imported goods, outstrips demand for domestic currency).

However, sitting atop the global reserve currency – used throughout the global financial system for payments and international trade – the US has managed to run larger trade deficits than other nations would be able to.
Click to expand...

So it's the curse (and simultaneous benefit) of having your currency as the global reserve, that is the core of the issue? Usually that's painted as a massive benefit the US has, it's why Truss couldn't get away with her unfunded tax cuts here, while the US, apparently, might have. Trump seems to see it as a problem to be 'solved' by a means that causes worse problems than you started with.
 
pmv said:
Yup

www.theguardian.com

Trump’s ‘idiotic’ and flawed tariff calculations stun economists

‘Willing sycophants’ came up with simplistic formula that has thrown global economy into disarray
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com




This is kind-of interesting



So it's the curse (and simultaneous benefit) of having your currency as the global reserve, that is the core of the issue? Usually that's painted as a massive benefit the US has, it's why Truss couldn't get away with her unfunded tax cuts here, while the US, apparently, might have. Trump seems to see it as a problem to be 'solved' by a means that causes worse problems than you started with.
Click to expand...
Trade deficits are not inherently bad and so they aren't necessarily something to be solved.
For example if it costs you $100 to make a widget yourself and it costs another country $50 to make that widget they can sell it to you for $75. You save $25 and they gain $25. Everyone is better off despite you having a trade deficit with that other country.

The reason why the entire world except for North Korea trades with each other is that trade makes everyone richer. Trump is relying on economic ideas that were disproven in the seventeen fucking hundreds.
 
pmv said:
Yup

www.theguardian.com

Trump’s ‘idiotic’ and flawed tariff calculations stun economists

‘Willing sycophants’ came up with simplistic formula that has thrown global economy into disarray
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com




This is kind-of interesting



So it's the curse (and simultaneous benefit) of having your currency as the global reserve, that is the core of the issue? Usually that's painted as a massive benefit the US has, it's why Truss couldn't get away with her unfunded tax cuts here, while the US, apparently, might have. Trump seems to see it as a problem to be 'solved' by a means that causes worse problems than you started with.
Click to expand...
If true, this is absolute insanity, how can it even be legal to lie to the entire country and nobody call this out?
 
The market crash exposes another big issue here - clearly the markets assumed Trump was lying about these tariffs or they would have been more priced in at this point.

The markets aren't wrong to have thought he was lying as, well, he lies about everything, but every once in a while he follows through and people are unprepared.
 
fskimospy said:
The market crash exposes another big issue here - clearly the markets assumed Trump was lying about these tariffs or they would have been more priced in at this point.

The markets aren't wrong to have thought he was lying as, well, he lies about everything, but every once in a while he follows through and people are unprepared.
Click to expand...

If you think it's bad today.. you haven't seen anything yet.

Remember stocks used to jump 15% at good earnings or drop that much on bad earnings. They clearly aren't prepared for how bad the multinationals will face a boycott/ backlash and it will make a difference in their long term earnings.

Trump has basically told 97% of the earth's population.. you best not rely on us.. so they will instead look to rely on others. Markets that took decades to break into will be erased overnight and I'm not even sure it's repairable at this point.

American exceptionalism is about to replaced by American exclusionism!
 
Josh128 said:
If true, this is absolute insanity, how can it even be legal to lie to the entire country and nobody call this out?
Click to expand...
Arguably, the tariffs are illegal. Trump is declaring a fake emergency to abuse the law. Nazi Carl Schmidt (author of Crisis of Parliamentary Democracy) would be proud that the executive is ceasing power by creating an "exception" not covered by existing law and boundaries.
 
Brainonska511 said:
Arguably, the tariffs are illegal. Trump is declaring a fake emergency to abuse the law. Nazi Carl Schmidt (author of Crisis of Parliamentary Democracy) would be proud that the executive is ceasing power by creating an "exception" not covered by existing law and boundaries.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure it is illegal in that sense as the law in question makes no requirement for the emergency declaration to be issued in good faith. That's where Congress is supposed to come in and terminate the fake emergency but, well... Congress.

Really, nearly every political problem the US faces today is due to a power vacuum where Congress used to sit. That's being absorbed by SCOTUS and the executive.
 
fskimospy said:
The market crash exposes another big issue here - clearly the markets assumed Trump was lying about these tariffs or they would have been more priced in at this point.

The markets aren't wrong to have thought he was lying as, well, he lies about everything, but every once in a while he follows through and people are unprepared.
Click to expand...

Is it good when I have received three different emails on this topic this morning from my brokers? Seems bad.
 
fskimospy said:
I'm not sure it is illegal in that sense as the law in question makes no requirement for the emergency declaration to be issued in good faith. That's where Congress is supposed to come in and terminate the fake emergency but, well... Congress.

Really, nearly every political problem the US faces today is due to a power vacuum where Congress used to sit. That's being absorbed by SCOTUS and the executive.
Click to expand...
Well, maybe not illegal. But he is abusing the law, because those are written to assume that people will operate in good faith.

But yes, Congress has abdicated it's roll, giving oversized influence to who is the president.
 
fskimospy said:
The market crash exposes another big issue here - clearly the markets assumed Trump was lying about these tariffs or they would have been more priced in at this point.

The markets aren't wrong to have thought he was lying as, well, he lies about everything, but every once in a while he follows through and people are unprepared.
Click to expand...
Or they didn't realize how bad it was going to be.

Also to factor in: there's still a ton of money betting he'll back down or someone will stop him. Wait till those pull out.
 
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