- Oct 10, 1999
Except there you are allowing for all the infections that didn't get tested and counted as 'cases', but not allowing for all the COVID deaths that didn't get counted either. Both the numerator and the denominator are going to be undercounts. If you allow for the Economist's take on US excess death figures, you need to increase that numerator by 30%, which would make your 'upper limit' closer to 2%. Granted that's an upper limit, but we just don't know yet what the true figure is. Maybe we'll never know?
The refrain about 'protect the vulnerable and everyone else carry on' has been being made since the start of the pandemic. The trouble is it was never made clear how they proposed to do that. In practice it seemed to mean 'the vulnerable can just hide away as best they can and drop out of society entirely'. It seemed to cross into a nasty Darwinian argument. Besides, it also seems to be a recipe for new variants to be produced.
Also, even with severe restriction Covid cases have threatened filling Hospitals on a regular basis. The Death Rate was not the only factor to consider, the ability of the Medical system to treat the disease and avoid higher Death Rates was even more important. Not only this, but each Covid Patient displaces some other Patient with a different ailment and treating Covid Patients is a much more stressful due to a number of reasons.