<< Russell Crowe will win it again this year.
I don't think people will care that the movie was inaccurate. >>
People will care, but probably not enough. The problem is that many people get a bit jaded over "Oscar" performances. When a movie is created, is the character/story realistic or is the entire thing slanted towards the type of story or character that would get Oscar attention? In "A Beautiful Mind", you can actually sit there and pick out the places where the story and character were changed to become more sympathetic, jerk a few more tears, chew a bit more scenery. Every aspect of the real story that was changed was changed in a way that screams "Look at me, I'm so deep I deserve an Oscar. Look at me! Look at me!!!!"  That might fly in pure fiction, but not in a supposed real life story. I'm rooting for Denzel to win for Best Actor because he was brilliant in the role, and it's nice to see him step out of the good-guy typecast. And hopefully LotR will take Best Picture or Jackson Best Director. It'd be nice to see A Beautiful Mind get shut out for such obvious pandering for votes, but it probably won't happen. The "Academy" are even more easily-led sheep than the Grammy voters.