The Next Step in Evolution

[CycloWizard]

I'm far from an expert in evolution (or much of anything in biology), but I was casually thinking about this the other day and discussing with a couple friends. What is the next logical step in evolution?

It seems to me that first-world humans should start start a bimodal process where the upper class evolves and the lower classes devolve. I arrive at this conclusion based on the current (perceived) trend that the less educated or less well-off in our society seem to have many more children. Further, those at the top of the food chain seem to mingle amongst each other more and more as time continues. Finally, it seems that the current climb in the prices of commodities, which I believe will have the effect of increasing the divide between the rich and the poor (make the rich richer and the poor poorer) will perpetuate this trend unless something rather drastic happens.

I hypothesize that the primary source for evolution may become genetic engineering. If one manipulation is definitely favorable, then it seems logical that it would become prevalent in those that could afford the therapy required to get it. If a modification was not positive, then no one would get it. In this way it seems that evolution could be accelerated in the wealthy class. Eventually, all the men would be 6'4", 180 pounds, blond, and blue-eyed with an IQ of 1395783157 and all the women would be 5'6", 120 pounds, *insert hair and eye color here*.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw this out there. Slow day at work today.

 

[FrankSchwab]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard
I'm far from an expert in evolution (or much of anything in biology), but I was casually thinking about this the other day and discussing with a couple friends. What is the next logical step in evolution?

Well, if you believe the Evolutionists, there is no logical step in evolution. Random mutations will cause desireable new (or enhanced, or reduced) characteristics that render the species better able to reproduce. Being random, there is no logic to what mutations happen.

If you believe the ID'ers, the logic of change in unknowable. A "designer" creates the shapes, forms, and behaviors, and can presumably change them if necessary. It is not our place to question why or how.

I think your concept of genetic engineering leading a new wave of human mutation is both likely and scary. Perhaps, in the long run and due to the limitations on Wisdom that mankind is subject to, what will evolve is a species that is incapable of genetic engineering. Being able to develop and utilize GE with limited wisdom may simply cause a mass die-off of that section of the population.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: FrankSchwab
I think your concept of genetic engineering leading a new wave of human mutation is both likely and scary. Perhaps, in the long run and due to the limitations on Wisdom that mankind is subject to, what will evolve is a species that is incapable of genetic engineering. Being able to develop and utilize GE with limited wisdom may simply cause a mass die-off of that section of the population.

This is sort of what I was thinking as well. A Russian author (can't recall whom) mentioned that mankind evolved from apes to become man, now man will evolve to become apes again. 😛 This will come about, IMO, both due to reckless exploitation of science and the desire in our society to be free to behave as animals, free of 'normal' human inhibitions.

 

[Gibsons]

I don't think the economic or social stratification is airtight enough nor long-lived enough to profoundly shape humans long-term evolution. A family fortune can last... I dunno... 5 generations? And there is still some exchange of genetic information from the higher classes to the lower, even if increased stratification leads to decreased rates of exchange.

There are some definite short term effects that we can see now - medical intervention has allowed/caused the spread of alleles that were strongly selected against in the past (see diabetes). How long this will continue and to what ultimate effect is hard to know.

Another is that environmental and nutritional control and modern transportation has 'scrambled' much of what evolution took a long time to sort out. Fair-skinned blondes moving sunny southerly climates, dark-skinned people moving to colder darker northern climates, not to mention interbreeding between races.

Something that I've pondered haven't come to any sort of conclusion on: humans do seem to be getting taller and reaching puberty at earlier ages. I tend to think this is more environmental than genetic, but that's pretty much a guess.

 

[cquark]

Originally posted by: Gibsons
I don't think the economic or social stratification is airtight enough nor long-lived enough to profoundly shape humans long-term evolution. A family fortune can last... I dunno... 5 generations? And there is still some exchange of genetic information from the higher classes to the lower, even if increased stratification leads to decreased rates of exchange.

There are some definite short term effects that we can see now - medical intervention has allowed/caused the spread of alleles that were strongly selected against in the past (see diabetes). How long this will continue and to what ultimate effect is hard to know.

Another is that environmental and nutritional control and modern transportation has 'scrambled' much of what evolution took a long time to sort out. Fair-skinned blondes moving sunny southerly climates, dark-skinned people moving to colder darker northern climates, not to mention interbreeding between races.

Yes, this is why people who fear that we're "devolving" because of better medical care are foolish. Human society changes the selective conditions radically within a single generation, but it would require about a thousand generations to change something like skin color to match climate again. Of course, that's longer than human civilization has existed.

As for deliberate changes as Cyclowizard suggests, I think we'll make those, though anyone who calls what we're doing today genetic engineering is wildly optimistic. We don't understand what most of our genome does, and we're a long way from being able to change groups of genes to add new characteristics that aren't present in humans today. I'd love to have an enhanced cellular replication system that reduces the incidence of cancer by a factor of a million or an enhanced immune system that more accurately determines self from non-self, but such systems are far beyond our capabilities today.

The best we'll be able to do in the lifetime of anyone reading this message is to give our children some of the best of what humanity currently offers. However, unlike Cyclowizard, I see that there's a great deal of hope for a society that's more fair. Children won't be condemned by random chance to die at an early age from genetic diseases or to be disabled by severe conditions like cystic fibrosis. You'll still have a chance to be an Olympic sprinter even if your ancestors didn't grow up on the high plateaus of Africa.

Of course, the rich will have access to these technologies first, but I don't see any reason for them to be inaccessible to ordinary people as such technologies typically become easier, cheaper, and safer over time. The greatest danger to equality would be in making such technologies illegal, for then they won't go down in price and only the rich who can afford to leave the country for genetic modification would have access to them then.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: Gibsons
Something that I've pondered haven't come to any sort of conclusion on: humans do seem to be getting taller and reaching puberty at earlier ages. I tend to think this is more environmental than genetic, but that's pretty much a guess.

I've read from at least one source that this is likely due to nutrition. If that is the case, maybe the trend will be reversed in the coming generation as people eat more and more junk. 😛

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: cquark
The best we'll be able to do in the lifetime of anyone reading this message is to give our children some of the best of what humanity currently offers. However, unlike Cyclowizard, I see that there's a great deal of hope for a society that's more fair. Children won't be condemned by random chance to die at an early age from genetic diseases or to be disabled by severe conditions like cystic fibrosis. You'll still have a chance to be an Olympic sprinter even if your ancestors didn't grow up on the high plateaus of Africa.

Where everyone excels, there is only mediocrity. This is analagous to the famous paradox: if everyone is a millionaire, no one is rich. There would likely be unforeseen side-effects: increased depression (I'm just not good enough to stand out!) among others. Of course this is conjecture, but that's the whole point of the thread - make wild generalizations about what might be, not what is. 😛

 

[Gibsons]

Hm, as for deliberate genetic manipulation, it's difficult to see that getting directly into the collective human genome. That is, I suspect most engineering will be done on developed humans, rather than at the single-cell or embryo stage. There are some delivery methods that might be able to reach germ cells though. As an interesting footnote, this would actually be Lamarckian: inheritance of acquired characteristics.

So what sort of manipulations almost certainly will be done? for physiological reasons, I suspect most of the early ones will involve blood/circulatory cells and the liver. The reason is that those are the easiest places to deliver genetic information. Things like brain and muscle are extremely difficult while cartilage and bone (excluding marrow) are practically impossible. Most of the early things will be replacements (this is already being done now link ) for people who have a defect. Gene-based immunizations might not be too far away, and I'm thinking more advanced stuff than the 'make the antigen' approach they're using now.

In the future though, I could see more cosmetic things done. Just a few things I daydreamed...

Glow in the dark skin.

custom colored skin, fingernails and hair.

weight control.

regulated muscle growth (better than steroids! 😉 )

maybe eye color or even making see in the dark cat eyes or infrared/ultraviolet viewing eyes (not sure if that's possible though).

gas-proof digestive tracts.

extreme alcohol tolerance (for bragging rights or to avoid DUIs), or tolerance for other toxins.

specific modifications for unusual environments (thick layer of fat and hair for colder climes, etc)

the ability to eat and digest wood,

immunity to snake bites (can already sort of do this today).

Scent modification - maybe we can secrete some pleasant smelling organics in places normally subject to BO. Or maybe synthesize and secrete flower/perfume scents through the skin.

 

[EightySix Four]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

Originally posted by: Gibsons
Something that I've pondered haven't come to any sort of conclusion on: humans do seem to be getting taller and reaching puberty at earlier ages. I tend to think this is more environmental than genetic, but that's pretty much a guess.

I've read from at least one source that this is likely due to nutrition. If that is the case, maybe the trend will be reversed in the coming generation as people eat more and more junk. 😛

I've pondered this much also, I'm 15 and 6'4, though I eat crappy food, I don't have the genetics present anywhere in my family to be as big as I am, but I am this tall, and still growing for that matter. But what makes me really wonder about it all, is that back in say, medievil times, I would have been a giant compared to everyone, AFAIK people weren't nearly as tall as we get today, I'm a freshman and we have 18 kids over 6 foot, I'm the tallest, but it's till pretty crazy compared to what my parents saw in their HS's.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: Gibsons
maybe eye color or even making see in the dark cat eyes or infrared/ultraviolet viewing eyes (not sure if that's possible though).

I did see a retinal prosthesis that viewed infrared at a vision research conference I went to recently... The imaging sucked and they hadn't successfully integrated with the optic nerve (the real stumbling block for any prosthesis of course), but that was something my roommates and I used to joke about all the time. Predator! I'm not sure if it could be done genetically or not, but it's an interesting concept nonetheless.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

Originally posted by: Gibsons
maybe eye color or even making see in the dark cat eyes or infrared/ultraviolet viewing eyes (not sure if that's possible though).

I did see a retinal prosthesis that viewed infrared at a vision research conference I went to recently... The imaging sucked and they hadn't successfully integrated with the optic nerve (the real stumbling block for any prosthesis of course), but that was something my roommates and I used to joke about all the time. Predator! I'm not sure if it could be done genetically or not, but it's an interesting concept nonetheless.

Genetically, you'd put in a gene that expressed a different pigment/photoreceptor. Get it to express at the right place and perhaps exclude expression of the normal pigment (danger!).

But I'm guessing IR and UV vision might be impossible because the aqueous humor might be opaque to those wavelengths. For example, snakes are very sensitive to IR, the receptors for that are on the tongue rather than part of the eye. Maybe we could take the snake IR receptors and just get them expressed somewhere convenient, like the nose tip or the skin around the eyes.

 

[cquark]

Originally posted by: crazySOB297
I've pondered this much also, I'm 15 and 6'4, though I eat crappy food, I don't have the genetics present anywhere in my family to be as big as I am, but I am this tall, and still growing for that matter. But what makes me really wonder about it all, is that back in say, medievil times, I would have been a giant compared to everyone, AFAIK people weren't nearly as tall as we get today, I'm a freshman and we have 18 kids over 6 foot, I'm the tallest, but it's till pretty crazy compared to what my parents saw in their HS's.

In Medieval times, you would've been a giant compared to the peasants, but not so big compared to the nobility, who had sufficient food to reach their genetically natural heights.

Interestingly, Northern European heights followed a U-shaped curve from a high around 800AD of about 6' tall to a low in the 17th century of around 5' tall and then back up again today, where you would barely be above average in the Netherlands, where the average man is over 6'1" tall.

However, despite your anecdotal evidence, Americans haven't become taller in the last 50 years. The average American man of European descent is 5'9.5", just one inch taller than at the time of the American Revolution. However, the Japanese have largely caught up with us, and the nothern Europeans have gone from being a couple of inches shorter in the WWI era to a few inches taller today. It's not due to immigration, as the statistics include only native born Americans not of Hispanic or Asian descent.

 

[cquark]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

Originally posted by: cquark
The best we'll be able to do in the lifetime of anyone reading this message is to give our children some of the best of what humanity currently offers. However, unlike Cyclowizard, I see that there's a great deal of hope for a society that's more fair. Children won't be condemned by random chance to die at an early age from genetic diseases or to be disabled by severe conditions like cystic fibrosis. You'll still have a chance to be an Olympic sprinter even if your ancestors didn't grow up on the high plateaus of Africa.

Where everyone excels, there is only mediocrity. This is analagous to the famous paradox: if everyone is a millionaire, no one is rich.

It's a good point: people rate themselves by comparison to others, which is why increased affluence of society in general doesn't make people feel better about themselves.

 

[cquark]

Originally posted by: Gibsons
In the future though, I could see more cosmetic things done. Just a few things I daydreamed...

Glow in the dark skin.

Transparent skin would make medical diagnoses easier. You might have to also modify our perceptions to consider it attractive though. (-;

specific modifications for unusual environments (thick layer of fat and hair for colder climes, etc)

It's probably easier than terraforming Mars too.

Scent modification - maybe we can secrete some pleasant smelling organics in places normally subject to BO. Or maybe synthesize and secrete flower/perfume scents through the skin.

As we're beginning to learn how humans unconsciously perceive pheromones, there are some interesting and scary possibilities along those lines.

 

[Chode Messiah]

Our ear lobes and pinky toes will shrink or go away either.:disgust:

 

[unipidity]

Selection just is not strong enough to provide any kind of evolutionary pressure in humans. imo. Even the 'rich' would comprise of hundreds of millions of individuals, and ultimately, memetic trends generally overpower genetic ones when it comes to highly derived behaviours.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: crazySOB297

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

Originally posted by: Gibsons
Something that I've pondered haven't come to any sort of conclusion on: humans do seem to be getting taller and reaching puberty at earlier ages. I tend to think this is more environmental than genetic, but that's pretty much a guess.

I've read from at least one source that this is likely due to nutrition. If that is the case, maybe the trend will be reversed in the coming generation as people eat more and more junk. 😛

I've pondered this much also, I'm 15 and 6'4, though I eat crappy food, I don't have the genetics present anywhere in my family to be as big as I am, but I am this tall, and still growing for that matter. But what makes me really wonder about it all, is that back in say, medievil times, I would have been a giant compared to everyone, AFAIK people weren't nearly as tall as we get today, I'm a freshman and we have 18 kids over 6 foot, I'm the tallest, but it's till pretty crazy compared to what my parents saw in their HS's.

IIRC, there were a couple of studies that compared adolescents being brought up in different cultures. One of the studies implied (if it didn't just outright state it) that hormones, etc., that are being pumped into many of our meats, as well as other chemical residues on other foods, were having an impact on human growth. I do recall that one of the studies specifically looked at the age at which females had their first periods. Rather than a link to "good nutrition", it seemed more a correlation to how the food was prepared.

 

[The Boston Dangler]

Because of Bovine Growth Hormone, women menstruate at an earlier age than ever, and have larger breasts. Now, if it could make their asses smaller......

 

[Cattlegod]

Originally posted by: The Boston Dangler
Because of Bovine Growth Hormone, women menstruate at an earlier age than ever, and have larger breasts. Now, if it could make their asses smaller......

you just have to move out of the USA for that one ;P

 

[EightySix Four]

*cue crappy music* I like big butts and I can not lie, you otha brotha's can't deny....

if you guys don't know that was a popular song in the US for a long time.

And the menstrual cycles starting early sounds right, there was a girl who started at my school in plano in 2nd grade so they had to have the sex talk with the girls early.

Also, my dad studies mold as he owns a remediation company, and a few molds are known to cause puberty slightly early when your exposed to their spores alot.