The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse

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feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,318
4,353
136
I don't see it as the dire straights presented. What I see are a lot of people that believe a degree is a purchased ticket to success. And a whole bunch of people that seem to think there is a finite amount of money to go around. Neither is true.
I said it a few posts up and I'll say it again, the future will be exactly what we make it. If we choose a future of recycled anger, then that's what we'll get. Make no mistake about though, it is a choice.

The word you are looking for is "straits" not "straights", you homo sapiens.

That makes me very angry.

Not.
 
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gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
1,819
1,601
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So what are some potential solutions here?

I don't think either party is all that interested in seriously addressing wealth inequality, but at least whenever the Dems approach it, it's instantly shot down as "radical socialism."

And I don't see the right offering any solutions other than tax cuts mostly for the rich and a promise of meager growth of low skilled, low paying jobs which still doesn't address the underlying issue.

Personally I think we need UBI and a higher minimum wage. Still not enough but I think it would probably at least buy us some time before it all collapses.

And after 4 years of the right railing against the "elites," I still don't know what that term means to them. Is it someone with more than a GED? Anyone making more than 6 figures? Doctors, nurses, engineers, professionals, etc? Any white collar worker?
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,271
323
126
I don't think these are Rocket science predictions, Ray Dalio has been saying for years that given the economic trends that the 2020s will be a replay of the 1930s.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,187
14,087
136
We've had much worse poverty at other times in the past. I am skeptical of any prediction based primarily on economic factors. I think this is a culture war that has less to do with economics than many people seem to think. The prediction may prove correct by not likely for the reasons given.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,326
249
106
I think outlawing unpaid overtime would be another good thing to add. No more people working some crazy 60+ hour weeks on a salary strictly for the benefit of the employer. Make that **** illegal with some heavy fines against employers who run their employees into the ground. Additionally, full-time hours should be reduced to something like 30-32 hours while keeping all yearly salaries the same (and hourly workers can boost their rates). I really don't care what any boomers think about this, "lazy" or "not working hard", but it's just inhumane that families require two full-time working parents these days to get by. With less work required in general, you'll have a less exhausted and less stressed out, thus less triggered population. It'll open time for people to improve their skillsets on their own, work on side projects, etc. Simply put, the American workaholic culture needs to die.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,864
7,792
136
You'll get over it.
Shouldn't sapiens be singular?

My understanding is that sapiens _is_ singular. It's Latin, not an English plural.


The s at the end of sapiens is deceptive to English speakers because it makes the term sound plural, even though it’s not.

Not that I did Latin at all - didn't go to that sort of school. Boris Johnson is probably sapiens about sapiens.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,864
7,792
136
We've had much worse poverty at other times in the past. I am skeptical of any prediction based primarily on economic factors. I think this is a culture war that has less to do with economics than many people seem to think.

Well, now that's a vexed question. I disagree with you, but not with any degree of confidence - I find our times very disorienting. For one thing I don't think you can separate culture and economics that clearly.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,187
14,087
136
Well, now that's a vexed question. I disagree with you, but not with any degree of confidence - I find our times very disorienting. For one thing I don't think you can separate culture and economics that clearly.

You can't separate them entirely, no, but if you're going to premise an argument exclusively on economics, and that has been the discussion in this thread, it seems necessary to substantiate the premise. This country has been through much harder economic times, yet we've never been this close to authoritarianism. Accordingly, there is no evidence of any sort of correlation, let alone causation.

What is so special about the alleged economic misery we are experiencing right now? What is so historically unprecedented about it that we suddenly find ourselves in the midst of a culture class and social unrest?
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,864
7,792
136
You can't separate them entirely, no, but if you're going to premise an argument exclusively on economics, and that has been the discussion in this thread, it seems necessary to substantiate the premise. This country has been through much harder economic times, yet we've never been this close to authoritarianism. Accordingly, there is no evidence of any sort of correlation, let alone causation.

What is so special about the alleged economic misery we are experiencing right now? What is so historically unprecedented about it that we suddenly find ourselves in the midst of a culture class and social unrest?

I don't know if this is exclusively about economics as the paywall won't let me read the OP article. The argument presented might be including non-economic factors.

And during past hard economic times, i.e. the Great Depression, you certainly had a dramatic rise in support for communism and fascism. But maybe in the US that didn't go as far as it did elsewhere? I don't know, it's your history! At the very least the US at that time could learn from or react against the counter-example of what was happening in Europe.
 

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,318
4,353
136
My understanding is that sapiens _is_ singular. It's Latin, not an English plural.




Not that I did Latin at all - didn't go to that sort of school. Boris Johnson is probably sapiens about sapiens.



He also missed the "Not" after I said it "makes me very angry."



What is to be done?
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
45,976
8,550
136
What is so special about the alleged economic misery we are experiencing right now?
I'd say it's people's expectations. During the Great Depression, folks buckled down and did what they could, and were grateful for what they got. Families uprooted and piled their entire earthly posessions onto jalopies and made it . . . somehow . . . to California, just for some agricultural work.

Today, there are long haul truck driver jobs going begging because the entitled bozos think jobs need to come to them, and be well paying, to boot.

This is an artifact, I believe, of the long, slow decline from America Uber Alles economically after WW II, where, until into the 70s, each generation was assured of a better economic life than their parents.

You just watch. Rising economic expectations are ALSO something the geriatric geezers of the Chineese communist party are going to be facing from their populace in coming decades, as well.

What is so historically unprecedented about it that we suddenly find ourselves in the midst of a culture class and social unrest?
Well, again, the expecation level, which simply exacerbates a culture/class divide that, thanks in part to the internet, is finally coming to a head.

There's some rough sailing ahead, matey. :cool:
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,187
14,087
136
I don't know if this is exclusively about economics as the paywall won't let me read the OP article. The argument presented might be including non-economic factors.

And during past hard economic times, i.e. the Great Depression, you certainly had a dramatic rise in support for communism and fascism. But maybe in the US that didn't go as far as it did elsewhere? I don't know, it's your history! At the very least the US at that time could learn from or react against the counter-example of what was happening in Europe.

This isn't the 1930's though. The economy was soaring when Trump came into public view in 2015, and continued that way until 6 months ago.

What we're experiencing right now is a backlash against the trend toward social liberalism of the 1960's and 1970's. It's been going on since the Reagan years, through good economic times and bad. And it's intensified with the advent of conservative media, and now social media. It doesn't seem to get any worse when the economy goes into the crapper, or any better when it improves.

All the republican party is doing is taking advantage of it for the benefit of themselves and their donors.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,864
7,792
136
reminds me of psychohistory from Asimov's Foundation series with trump as the mule.

That's an interesting point, and I wonder if it's coincidence that Asimov was non-religious Jewish? There's surely something of the secularised prophet/messiah about Hari Seldon...just as there is with with Marx. Mind you, I just the other day watched a DVD-extra talking about the 'Jewish themes in American Werewolf in London' (which did make some interesting points, even if it seemed over-stated overall) so I might be seeing Jewish themes all over the place now.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,187
14,087
136
I'd say it's people's expectations. During the Great Depression, folks buckled down and did what they could, and were grateful for what they got. Families uprooted and piled their entire earthly posessions onto jalopies and made it . . . somehow . . . to California, just for some agricultural work.

Today, there are long haul truck driver jobs going begging because the entitled bozos think jobs need to come to them, and be well paying, to boot.

This is an artifact, I believe, of the long, slow decline from America Uber Alles economically after WW II, where, until into the 70s, each generation was assured of a better economic life than their parents.

You just watch. Rising economic expectations are ALSO something the geriatric geezers of the Chineese communist party are going to be facing from their populace in coming decades, as well.

Well, again, the expecation level, which simply exacerbates a culture/class divide that, thanks in part to the internet, is finally coming to a head.

There's some rough sailing ahead, matey. :cool:

I think that is in part true. No doubt rising expectations are something any prosperous society eventually must contend with. But my take is that the primary issue is a rise of unscrupulous people who are trying to divide us for their own gain. That and having the media to accomplish it more efficiently than in the past. America was always filled with greedy conmen. They are just better at it now because they can reach people more easily.
 

Ken g6

Programming Moderator, Elite Member
Moderator
Dec 11, 1999
16,204
3,764
75
And this (point #3) is why we should care about the budget deficit.

UBI would solve point #2 (and maybe #1 although I'm not sure I understand that one), but it would make the deficit worse. I think if UBI could be done while balancing the budget, we'd achieve stability; but the money for UBI has to come from taxing somebody.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,212
4,998
136
So what are some potential solutions here?

I don't think either party is all that interested in seriously addressing wealth inequality, but at least whenever the Dems approach it, it's instantly shot down as "radical socialism."

And I don't see the right offering any solutions other than tax cuts mostly for the rich and a promise of meager growth of low skilled, low paying jobs which still doesn't address the underlying issue.

Personally I think we need UBI and a higher minimum wage. Still not enough but I think it would probably at least buy us some time before it all collapses.

And after 4 years of the right railing against the "elites," I still don't know what that term means to them. Is it someone with more than a GED? Anyone making more than 6 figures? Doctors, nurses, engineers, professionals, etc? Any white collar worker?
I don't see how wealth inequality can be addressed without total government control. Why not just have a minimum standard of living? That will fail as well, but it will take a lot longer.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,439
28,991
146
You'll get over it.
Shouldn't sapiens be singular?
it's neither plural nor singular.

"sapiens" is the actual term.

whenever you see someone write "sapien," it's just wrong.

see, even Google calls it a misspelling. :D
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,332
7,789
136
Bah, I hate when I loose track of a thread and search fails me. Anyway....

A quality article that is well constructed. The inclusion of various viewpoints from other scientists being particularly helpful to this reader.

I'm pleased that Turchin is focusing mathematical tools on issues of history. I have qualms about the legitimacy of 'mega histories'; trying to follow and quantify the long arcs of human society. It reminds me of the attempts of Naill Feguson to 'quantify' the rise and fall of empires via counterfactual history. As pointed out by Guldi, one fault already present is that we have limited experience in generational changes, even over an apparently long history of 10,000 years. We have many more data points for species that have a one year life cycle (of less). Zhoa also illustrates an important point. Most species further down the evolutionary ladder have a much more limited skill set when it comes to organization and short term adaptability. The great triumph of natural history is that homo sapiens came into being and showed an almost incomprehensible adaptive ability over such a short time compared to any prior species. We modify, not only our own behaviour and thinking, but also our environment [and apparently to our detriment as well].

In addition to the important points on interjecting mathematics with the end point off producing more exacting insights and models on the historical behavior of human society, the author focuses on the present value that Turchin's model's output. That is, that we are at yet another inflection point in the United States. And, given that we are a world power, an inflection in the world order. The fact that Turchin doesn't know what the correct policy prescriptions would be to moderate the transition to a more stable and productive state, outline the weakness of such mathematical models. Thus far, they have no answer for dealing with the complex and chaotic systems within which human beings live and interact. Perhaps we do rise and fall just as pine beetles do, but are the reasons as simple as the poorly thought out introduction of a pesticide? [I am incline to think here about the continual rise and fall of fascism] No mathematical evidence is produced as proof, but that is outside the scope of this article.

It is said that those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. I am at the point in life were I question that old adage. Perhaps we are simply damned to repeat them, irrespective of what we have learned (not that there's be *no* progress). More to the point, this nascent introduction of mathematics into the analysis of history, has a long, long way to go before it generates not just predictions, but new ways to tackle old problems and the spawning of new areas of development, such as has happened with the 'hard' sciences.
 
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mect

Platinum Member
Jan 5, 2004
2,424
1,636
136
I don't see how wealth inequality can be addressed without total government control. Why not just have a minimum standard of living? That will fail as well, but it will take a lot longer.
There are many ways. Progressive taxation, unions and collective bargaining (with legislation to empower these), socialized education, socialized healthcare, UBI are just a few examples. Almost no one wants to achieve 0 wealth inequality. We just want to return it to a normal level.
 

mect

Platinum Member
Jan 5, 2004
2,424
1,636
136
This isn't the 1930's though. The economy was soaring when Trump came into public view in 2015, and continued that way until 6 months ago.

What we're experiencing right now is a backlash against the trend toward social liberalism of the 1960's and 1970's. It's been going on since the Reagan years, through good economic times and bad. And it's intensified with the advent of conservative media, and now social media. It doesn't seem to get any worse when the economy goes into the crapper, or any better when it improves.

All the republican party is doing is taking advantage of it for the benefit of themselves and their donors.
The economy was soaring, that doesn't mean that the middle and lower class were thriving.
 
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BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
I think outlawing unpaid overtime would be another good thing to add. No more people working some crazy 60+ hour weeks on a salary strictly for the benefit of the employer. Make that **** illegal with some heavy fines against employers who run their employees into the ground. Additionally, full-time hours should be reduced to something like 30-32 hours while keeping all yearly salaries the same (and hourly workers can boost their rates). I really don't care what any boomers think about this, "lazy" or "not working hard", but it's just inhumane that families require two full-time working parents these days to get by. With less work required in general, you'll have a less exhausted and less stressed out, thus less triggered population. It'll open time for people to improve their skillsets on their own, work on side projects, etc. Simply put, the American workaholic culture needs to die.
Yea, I remember that as a kid the majority of families just had the Father working, the Mom was able to take care of her own kids vs dumping them off at a day care.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
45,976
8,550
136
Also, I've apparently seen my share of Atlantic articles this month, and I'm not allowed to see that one!
Incognito.
jnHWXN4.gif
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
57,837
11,966
136
I'd say it's people's expectations. During the Great Depression, folks buckled down and did what they could, and were grateful for what they got. Families uprooted and piled their entire earthly posessions onto jalopies and made it . . . somehow . . . to California, just for some agricultural work.

Today, there are long haul truck driver jobs going begging because the entitled bozos think jobs need to come to them, and be well paying, to boot.
Not the best example, since we're already in the process of automating those jobs :D