The new BCS

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: DogFromDuckhunt
USC is so horribly overrated it makes me sick. They lost to the freaking 100+ ranked team, but because it was early on in their season it doesn't mean jack schit.

It doesn't matter because after that game, they've beaten everyone, including top 10 WSU by 20+ points. If they played poorly afterwards, they would be 4th in the polls and well behind OSU in the BCS.

And you should be happy with the BCS, since OSU has a chance to overtake USC. If it was just the polls, like before, they would have no chance.

And how do you figure that Cal is 100+ ranked. I've never seen anybody ranking them with the likes of Buffalo and SMU. If you take the average of the 7 computers, Cal is 58th. Wisconsin (who beat OSU) is 42. USC vs Cal was a 3 OT game. OSU lost by a touchdown.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: NeoV

Ohio St, if it wins both games remaining, Purdue and Michigan, would likely pass USC for the #2 BCS spot, which would make the USC fans pretty sad, but we'll see if it gets to that.

In all honesty, I don't know that there is much of a difference between OSU and USC - I think OSU's D is better, but USC's O is better...special teams probably favor OSU

Personally, I think USC is a better team, but I think OSU would have a better chance of beating Oklahoma. USC's game is too close to Oklahoma's.

I think that OSU passing USC is dependent on LSU loosing. Right now, there is 1.46 points betwen OSU and USC. OSU should gain most of a point in SOS over USC (because OSU will go up, and USC will go down). But, Righ now, if you drop the lowest computer, USC is 3rd in all computers but 1 and OSU is 2nd in all computers but 1. OSU can only move up in Sagarin, gaining .17 points. OSU has virtually no chance at a quality win. If They beat Purdue and Michigan, neither of those teams will be in the top 10. Iowa can't move up to the top 10 in less a whole lot of teams lose. Thus OSU will still be .5 or so points behind USC. Even if WSU loses, so USC loses its QW, they will still be ahead by a fraction. But, if LSU loses, OSU moves up to #3 in the polls, and is now .5 points in front of USC. USC would need a lot of help from WSU to get their QW high enough to erase that defecit.

 

[hdeck]

how is michigan going to pass texas when you just said michigan will lose to usc, making them a 3 loss team...

 

[MaxDepth]

TCU is 6th, baby! I wanna see the Orange Bowl comish sweat as it comes down to picking TCU or a lesser ranked BCS team. I can see Tulane's president buying the first round tonight. (He's the head of the non-BCS group to file suit against the BCS for anti-trust violations - or is it just the group that's drawn attention the BCS?)

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: Shelly21
Rather than posting a new thread, I'll leech off Mookow and post my current BCS prediction.

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma VS. USC, that gives Fiesta the first pick, and Rose the second.
Fiesta picks Ohio state and shafts Rose again, Rose takes Michigan, Orange takes FSU, that leaves LSU for Fiesta,
Rose will take Texas, leaving Pitt. for Orange.

If TCU wins out, they will likely be given a BCS bid, theres a 99% chance TCU will win out. The only way OSU can get to the number #2 spot is if LSU loses and it wins. I still think OSU will choke vs Mich. I still think LSU could win out, and IMHO they should jump USC if they did, but what do I know.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I think that OSU passing USC is dependent on LSU loosing. Right now, there is 1.46 points betwen OSU and USC. OSU should gain most of a point in SOS over USC (because OSU will go up, and USC will go down). But, Righ now, if you drop the lowest computer, USC is 3rd in all computers but 1 and OSU is 2nd in all computers but 1. OSU can only move up in Sagarin, gaining .17 points. OSU has virtually no chance at a quality win. If They beat Purdue and Michigan, neither of those teams will be in the top 10. Iowa can't move up to the top 10 in less a whole lot of teams lose. Thus OSU will still be .5 or so points behind USC. Even if WSU loses, so USC loses its QW, they will still be ahead by a fraction. But, if LSU loses, OSU moves up to #3 in the polls, and is now .5 points in front of USC. USC would need a lot of help from WSU to get their QW high enough to erase that defecit.

I disagree. (Well with some of that).

You are right that OSU won't go up in the computer polls. OSU likely won't get any quality wins, and the # of losses is a mute point if both teams win out. But for SOS I don't think OSU can gain a full point. OSU doesn't have much room to move up and USC won't drop much at all. Sure Arizona will hurt them, but UCLA and Oregon St. have better than average records (and are likely to win more in their last games of the season). Thus I don't think USC will drop much in SOS.

But the main point is that OSU will move up in the human polls. The humans have recently altered their voting in an attempt to get a desired team in the national championship (2001 anyone?) OSU is just a few points behind LSU in both polls. If OSU wins out, these two teams will swap positions (heck the OSU coach can vote OSU #1 in the final week to do this switch himself in the coaches poll). Thus OSU will very likely gain a full point on the polls alone. It is even conceivable that the polls will vote OSU above USC to get a national championship where last years winner defends its title. That would give OSU a full 3 points (OSU moves up two and USC moves down one). Thus I think that OSU will go if it wins out.

By the way, do you OSU fans like my new optimizations?

 

[sciencewhiz]

using all opponents records (including games not played), right now, OSU's SOS Ranking would be 6th (down from 14) Gaining them .32 points. USC Would go from 16th to 25th, losing .36 points. so, a net gain of .68 points for OSU.

Half of the votors for each poll would have to switch the positions of OSU and LSU. Right now, 59+ voters in the coaches poll are ranking USC 2nd. And 64 of the 65 are in the AP. I can't see that changing, even if OSU wins out impressively and a few votors change their minds for the reasons you state.

Now, for OSU passing LSU, without LSU losing. OSU is behind by 32 points (out of 65 voters) in the AP and 29 (out of 63 voters) in the Coaches. Thus, half of the votors of each poll would need to switch OSU and LSU, or 1/4 would need to put OSU 2nd. I think that will happen if OSU wins big (are people getting tired of hearing me say that yet?) But, the humans have shown that they are loathe to change positions without a loss (at least in the top 5, it's much more likely in farther down in the polls) Anybody have historical data to find out how often a team in the top 5 makes up 30 or more points in the polls, without either team losing?

Thanks for linking to your new optimizations. I hadn't seen it yet.

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: dullard
By the way, do you OSU fans like my new optimizations?

So the new program predicts the winner better?

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: MaxDepth
TCU is 6th, baby! I wanna see the Orange Bowl comish sweat as it comes down to picking TCU or a lesser ranked BCS team. I can see Tulane's president buying the first round tonight. (He's the head of the non-BCS group to file suit against the BCS for anti-trust violations - or is it just the group that's drawn attention the BCS?)

Does anyone think that TCU has a realistic chance of beating, say, Michigan, OSU, Texas, LSU, etc?

EDIT: IMO, if TCU goes to a BCS bowl they will probably get spanked, unless its the easiest possible BCS opponent.

 

[Metalloid]

Mighigan sure got shafted on that one...

There is no way that OSU can beat them this year. They nearly lost to Penn State, San Diego State, and they actually did lose to Wisconsin.

Chris Perry will eat their defense alive with David Baas and Dave Pearson blocking for him. And with Edwards, Avant, and Breaston all playing well at wide out, Navarre will have plenty of passing yards.

Krenzel just sucks this year, and he won't be able to handle Michigan's linebackers constantly rushing him. Not to mention that Jackson should be back to full health, so even if he does get a pass off, he won't be completing many.

This is the year....

 

[Metalloid]

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: MaxDepth
TCU is 6th, baby! I wanna see the Orange Bowl comish sweat as it comes down to picking TCU or a lesser ranked BCS team. I can see Tulane's president buying the first round tonight. (He's the head of the non-BCS group to file suit against the BCS for anti-trust violations - or is it just the group that's drawn attention the BCS?)

Does anyone think that TCU has a realistic chance of beating, say, Michigan, OSU, Texas, LSU, etc?

EDIT: IMO, if TCU goes to a BCS bowl they will probably get spanked, unless its the easiest possible BCS opponent.

No way. TCU beat Houston 62-53, and Michigan beat Houston 50-3. They are a bit overrated in my opinion.

 

[Metalloid]

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: Elitebull
Michigan should be 5th

I would like to see that, but their computer score is killing them

Now this makes absolutely no sense. Last week, Michigan's computer score was 9.67. They didn't play this week, and 3 teams ahead of them lost.... so their computer score goes up a point and a half???

Someone please explain this.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: Metalloid

Now this makes absolutely no sense. Last week, Michigan's computer score was 9.67. They didn't play this week, and 3 teams ahead of them lost.... so their computer score goes up a point and a half???

Someone please explain this.

Miami lost, but still stayed ahead. FSU and Virginia Tech lost and fell behind. But, Texas and Tennesee won big games and jumped over them. Iowa, one of the teams that Michigan lost to was #11. At that position it was only hurting Michigan a little to have lost to them. But, when they lost, it started to hurt Michigan much more. Michigan's opponents overall went 5-5, not to impressive. So, those hurt Michigan, allowing Washington State and Purdue to pass them.

 

[DogFromDuckhunt]

CAL was ranked 100+ when they beat USC.

 

[Shelly21]

I stand corrected, I'll make my BCS bowl picks next week with the correct formula.

As for TCU, I don't think they deserve a BCS bid. Their strenghth of schedule is what? 87 out of 111 (not exact number, but close to it, someone correct me). If Notre Dame plays 10 games against SMU, Army, Illinois, Temple, Buffalo, Louisiana Monroe, idaho, UTEP, Baylor, and Penn State. I'm sure they'll be undefeated, would they deserve to be in the top 5?

I think we can still have a playoff with the Bowls included in the equation, perhaps a tournament after the bowls with eight teams to play, at max, 3 games for the Sears trophy.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: DogFromDuckhunt
CAL was ranked 100+ when they beat USC.

That is always the most stupid argument possible. The only thing that matters is the team ranking at the end of the season, not the ranking on the day you played them. Think about it the opposite way: can USC claim that they beat the #1 team in the nation (Auburn)? According to your logic that is true - thus USC should be ranked #1. Sure Auburn was #1 in the preseason, but in reality Auburn is a pushover at 6 wins and 4 losses. If your logic isn't true claiming that Auburn is #1, then your logic isn't true claiming that Cal is 100+.

In reality, Cal is just another middle of the road team. They are 5 and 6, but may very possibly end the season as a 7 and 6 bowl elegible team.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: dullard
By the way, do you OSU fans like my new optimizations?

So the new program predicts the winner better?
...
Does anyone think that TCU has a realistic chance of beating, say, Michigan, OSU, Texas, LSU, etc?

It predicts the winner correctly a few percent more often, but its score predictions are worse. Take your pick. Any case where the program picks that team X will beat team Y but that team Y will score more points is a tossup (and thus a great game to watch).

No I don't think that TCU will win a BCS bowl. TCU just like many up and coming teams will likely lose in the regular season last game or in their bowl game. Just look at history, it happens all the time (K State lost both their last game and the bowl game when they first rose towards the top and was undefeated for most of the regular season, BYU last year lost on their last game of the regular season, etc.)

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Shelly21
I stand corrected, I'll make my BCS bowl picks next week with the correct formula.

As for TCU, I don't think they deserve a BCS bid. Their strenghth of schedule is what? 87 out of 111 (not exact number, but close to it, someone correct me). If Notre Dame plays 10 games against SMU, Army, Illinois, Temple, Buffalo, Louisiana Monroe, idaho, UTEP, Baylor, and Penn State. I'm sure they'll be undefeated, would they deserve to be in the top 5?

I think we can still have a playoff with the Bowls included in the equation, perhaps a tournament after the bowls with eight teams to play, at max, 3 games for the Sears trophy.

There is a total of 117 Division 1A teams. Look for my version of a playoff system here.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: Metalloid

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: Elitebull
Michigan should be 5th

I would like to see that, but their computer score is killing them

Now this makes absolutely no sense. Last week, Michigan's computer score was 9.67. They didn't play this week, and 3 teams ahead of them lost.... so their computer score goes up a point and a half???

Someone please explain this.

I wouldn't worry about it.

Of all of the two-loss teams, Michigan has the best shot of making it to the Sugar Bowl. If they win their last two games, and USC/LSU lose along the way, it will be Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: DogFromDuckhunt
CAL was ranked 100+ when they beat USC.

Again, I'm not sure where you got your number of 100+. If you take the average of the computer polls released at that time, Cal was 70th.

But like dullard said, USC should be #1, since they beat Auburn when they were #1.

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: Metalloid
Mighigan sure got shafted on that one...

There is no way that OSU can beat them this year. They nearly lost to Penn State, San Diego State, and they actually did lose to Wisconsin.

Chris Perry will eat their defense alive with David Baas and Dave Pearson blocking for him. And with Edwards, Avant, and Breaston all playing well at wide out, Navarre will have plenty of passing yards.

Krenzel just sucks this year, and he won't be able to handle Michigan's linebackers constantly rushing him. Not to mention that Jackson should be back to full health, so even if he does get a pass off, he won't be completing many.

This is the year....

We'll have to see about your running predictions. Chris Perry is a good RB, but he is going to be facing the nation's #1 run defense. OSU is giving up 45 yds/game, and 1.5yards/carry so far this year. Remember what happened to Larry Johnson last year: ~70 yards all day, and they were giving the ball to him quite a bit. Something has to give. Personally, I dont think Chris Perry is going to get more than 2.5-3.0 yards/carry, but time will tell. I think OSU's D-line is going to play too much havoc with Michigan for Navarre to be an effective passer (I'll give you a hint, the Will Smith on the OSU roster is not Will Smith the crappy rapper 😉 ), and interfere with the running game.

If OSU shuts down Perry, I dont think Michigan can win the game with a one dimensional offense.

The real problem with predicting the OSU-Michigan game is that in this rivalry, like all rivalries, upsets happen more often than in an average game. And right now, despite the rankings, most people expect Michigan to win. Which makes me smile.

 

[hopeless879]

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: Metalloid
Mighigan sure got shafted on that one...

There is no way that OSU can beat them this year. They nearly lost to Penn State, San Diego State, and they actually did lose to Wisconsin.

Chris Perry will eat their defense alive with David Baas and Dave Pearson blocking for him. And with Edwards, Avant, and Breaston all playing well at wide out, Navarre will have plenty of passing yards.

Krenzel just sucks this year, and he won't be able to handle Michigan's linebackers constantly rushing him. Not to mention that Jackson should be back to full health, so even if he does get a pass off, he won't be completing many.

This is the year....

We'll have to see about your running predictions. Chris Perry is a good RB, but he is going to be facing the nation's #1 run defense. OSU is giving up 45 yds/game, and 1.5yards/carry so far this year. Remember what happened to Larry Johnson last year: ~70 yards all day, and they were giving the ball to him quite a bit. Something has to give. Personally, I dont think Chris Perry is going to get more than 2.5-3.0 yards/carry, but time will tell. I think OSU's D-line is going to play too much havoc with Michigan for Navarre to be an effective passer (I'll give you a hint, the Will Smith on the OSU roster is not Will Smith the crappy rapper 😉 ), and interfere with the running game.

If OSU shuts down Perry, I dont think Michigan can win the game with a one dimensional offense.

The real problem with predicting the OSU-Michigan game is that in this rivalry, like all rivalries, upsets happen more often than in an average game. And right now, despite the rankings, most people expect Michigan to win. Which makes me smile.

Agreed. And if Krenzal and the rest of the offense can play as good as they did last week, I think OSU will win.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: Metalloid
Mighigan sure got shafted on that one...

There is no way that OSU can beat them this year. They nearly lost to Penn State, San Diego State, and they actually did lose to Wisconsin.

Chris Perry will eat their defense alive with David Baas and Dave Pearson blocking for him. And with Edwards, Avant, and Breaston all playing well at wide out, Navarre will have plenty of passing yards.

Krenzel just sucks this year, and he won't be able to handle Michigan's linebackers constantly rushing him. Not to mention that Jackson should be back to full health, so even if he does get a pass off, he won't be completing many.

This is the year....

We'll have to see about your running predictions. Chris Perry is a good RB, but he is going to be facing the nation's #1 run defense. OSU is giving up 45 yds/game, and 1.5yards/carry so far this year. Remember what happened to Larry Johnson last year: ~70 yards all day, and they were giving the ball to him quite a bit. Something has to give. Personally, I dont think Chris Perry is going to get more than 2.5-3.0 yards/carry, but time will tell. I think OSU's D-line is going to play too much havoc with Michigan for Navarre to be an effective passer (I'll give you a hint, the Will Smith on the OSU roster is not Will Smith the crappy rapper 😉 ), and interfere with the running game.

If OSU shuts down Perry, I dont think Michigan can win the game with a one dimensional offense.

The real problem with predicting the OSU-Michigan game is that in this rivalry, like all rivalries, upsets happen more often than in an average game. And right now, despite the rankings, most people expect Michigan to win. Which makes me smile.

Michigan will probably not have the best day on the ground vs. OSU. I have watched every Michigan game this year, and Perry is a good back. The best part about him is that he falls forward for 2-3 yards on almost every carry.

The Michigan O-line has really come together after a couple of rough games early. Even if OSU can shut down the running game, they still have a TON of weapons at WR. Navarre (assuming that his passes aren't getting batted down) is actually a very effective passer and plays well with pressure in the pocket.

My biggest question is: How is OSU going to score?

And as for your smiling due to everyone picking Michigan this year, remember everyone was picking OSU last year. I think it is going to be a close game. I think playing at home is going to benefit Michigan in a big way. They have played MUCH better at home. Meanwhile, OSU has played Wisconsin (L), a terrible Penn State (nearly an L) and Indiana (W against a horrible team) on the road and that is it.

This isn't 2002 and it is going to be interesting to see how OSU, as a team, react to playing a good opponent on the road.

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: mpitts

Michigan will probably not have the best day on the ground vs. OSU. I have watched every Michigan game this year, and Perry is a good back. The best part about him is that he falls forward for 2-3 yards on almost every carry.

The Michigan O-line has really come together after a couple of rough games early. Even if OSU can shut down the running game, they still have a TON of weapons at WR. Navarre (assuming that his passes aren't getting batted down) is actually a very effective passer and plays well with pressure in the pocket.

My biggest question is: How is OSU going to score?

And as for your smiling due to everyone picking Michigan this year, remember everyone was picking OSU last year. I think it is going to be a close game. I think playing at home is going to benefit Michigan in a big way. They have played MUCH better at home. Meanwhile, OSU has played Wisconsin (L), a terrible Penn State (nearly an L) and Indiana (W against a horrible team) on the road and that is it.

This isn't 2002 and it is going to be interesting to see how OSU, as a team, react to playing a good opponent on the road.

OSU is going to score the way they have all year... on good field position provided by the defense and special teams.

And most sports commentators were picking UM (actually, both UM's) to beat OSU last year. While Michigan pretty much led in all offensive stats, they did not get any TDs, and thus did not lead in the most important stat to be leading in at the end of the game: points.

I agree it will most likely be a close game. I just think Krenzel responds extremely well in the clutch, and that either that or Will Allen will seal the game.

EDIT: If Trev Alberts picks OSU to win I'm going to have to think about conceding defeat right then and there.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: Mookow
EDIT: If Trev Alberts picks OSU to win I'm going to have to think about conceding defeat right then and there.

Finally, something we can both agree on. 😀