The future of computing

[m4ch0dude]

It seems to me that the computing industry, with their steadily increasing clock ratres, are slowly but surely running into a limit of how to effectively dissipate the heat generated by the components - the cpu's and gpu's in particular. And while it's true that shrinking the die alleviates this problem to an extent, we are still seeing higher and higher cooling requirements for modern processors, and especially video cards. So, thinking a few years ahead, what kind of developments can we expect to see in this area?

One recent feature I see is the movement to multiple components doing the job simultaneously. For example, SLI for videocards, and multiple-core processors. So, I want to hear what you guys think about this issue, and if anyone has heard of what else might be with this in the future.

 

[FFactory0x]

Well i think the smaller and more efficiant cpu's and gpu'd respectivly become, the less voltage and power consumption they will need. This will help by lowering temperature levels. Right now voltage is the main cause of heat in cpu's. I also seem them adopting new proccesses in the way they make processors, maybe by using materials that can withstand more heat thus allowing them to get hot and not burn out

 

[Matthias99]

One thing's for certain -- CPUs and GPUs can't keep going the way they have been and expect air-cooling to cut it.

Barring process improvements that dramatically lower heat output (maybe 65nm chips with strained silicon and SOI will be a bigger improvement than 90nm was), the only sane approach I can see is going parallel. Because of the way things like leakage current work, the heat output of, say, four 1.0Ghz CPUs running at maybe 1.0-1.2V is a *lot* less than the heat output of a single 4.0Ghz CPU running at 1.5-1.7V. And it's a *lot* easier (read: cheaper) to make 1.0Ghz CPUs than 4.0Ghz ones. Similarly, I would think that it would be a *lot* easier to produce a video card with, say, four 8-pipeline GPUs (or even eight 4-pipeline GPUs) that work together rather than a single monolithic 32-pipeline chip. You have a much smaller die size and much better yields, and you can probably run them at lower voltages for significantly lower overall heat output.

Of course the tradeoff is that for multi-core or multi-CPU setups, you need multithreaded programs to really take advantage of it, and the hardware and driver design for a multi-core or multi-GPU video card could be significantly more complicated than for a single-GPU card.

Otherwise, we're gonna be looking at stock watercooling if chips get much hotter. Dissipating 100+W with a simple HSF is not trivial, and beyond 150W or so it might not be feasable at all.

 

[m4ch0dude]

I think they'll probably adopt the parallel model eventually, so well be seeing a lot more computers with multiple processors or cores. That is until somebody comes up with a totally new way of manufacturing them, and then the cycle begins again.

 

[Mrvile]

Lowering the voltage is probably the way they'll go. Take the Pentium M, for example, that only runs on 20-something volts, while a regular P4 runs close to 200 (I don't quite remember the numbers, they're in a magazine somewhere). Pentium Ms were designed for laptops, so they need to be cool and consume less power, and now that they're making the switch over to desktop, that's probably where the trend will go.

If water cooling ever becomes stock, well, they'd better make them SAFE and CHEAP.

 

[m4ch0dude]

Now, if Vaporchill cooling ever becomes safe and cheap, imagine the kind of clock speeds we'll have then



But dont you think manufacturers will be reluctant to use lower voltage processors, seeing how they constantly try to out-do one another?

 

[Cerb]

The GF 6800 uses less power than the previous 5900.
The Athlon64 uses FAR less power than the Prescott, and will only get better per clock.
A desktop version of the Pentium-M will give the AThlon64 a run for AMD's money and offer similar performance.

The situation really isn't getting that bleak, we've just finally hit a point at which heat and leakage have become serious roadblocks to increased performance.

Current heat-pipe based HSFs can handle Prescotts just fine with room to spare.

 

[Crescent13]

About 30-40 years from now people are going to be doing quantum computing. Computer Power User has an article on it in their February 2005 issue.

 

[imverygifted]

i think technology has been working to make cooler processors at faster speeds, the old thunderbirds ran way hotter than any XP or 64bit

 

[imported_Computer MAn]

Originally posted by: imverygifted
i think technology has been working to make cooler processors at faster speeds, the old thunderbirds ran way hotter than any XP or 64bit

But the Prescott has run way hotter than its predecessor

 

[KamiXkaze]

Originally posted by: Cerb
The GF 6800 uses less power than the previous 5900.
The Athlon64 uses FAR less power than the Prescott, and will only get better per clock.
A desktop version of the Pentium-M will give the AThlon64 a run for AMD's money and offer similar performance.

The situation really isn't getting that bleak, we've just finally hit a point at which heat and leakage have become serious roadblocks to increased performance.

Current heat-pipe based HSFs can handle Prescotts just fine with room to spare.

that would be good if intel decided to do that it would solve all of there heat problems(prescotts)

KxK

 

[CraigRT]

Originally posted by: Computer MAn

Originally posted by: imverygifted
i think technology has been working to make cooler processors at faster speeds, the old thunderbirds ran way hotter than any XP or 64bit

But the Prescott has run way hotter than its predecessor

but they also have some new cores that run very cool... Dothan IIRC is amazingly cool.

 

[Cerb]

Originally posted by: KamiXkaze

Originally posted by: Cerb
The GF 6800 uses less power than the previous 5900.
The Athlon64 uses FAR less power than the Prescott, and will only get better per clock.
A desktop version of the Pentium-M will give the AThlon64 a run for AMD's money and offer similar performance.

The situation really isn't getting that bleak, we've just finally hit a point at which heat and leakage have become serious roadblocks to increased performance.

Current heat-pipe based HSFs can handle Prescotts just fine with room to spare.

that would be good if intel decided to do that it would solve all of there heat problems(prescotts)

KxK

Well, I doubt they can switch to new cores and still increase performance over night.

 

[Cerb]

Originally posted by: imverygifted
i think technology has been working to make cooler processors at faster speeds, the old thunderbirds ran way hotter than any XP or 64bit

Actually not so. The AthlonXPs reached the TBird's level is heat towards the end, and the A64s can match it, as well. However, the newer ones are only that hot when under heavy load (the difference for the Tbirds wasn't a lot), and even the cheapest cooling solutions are far superior to what was standard back then, and lastly, the CPUs can throttle down or shut off (I think the desktop ones just shut off), which would have made the Tbirds much less dangerous, as well.

 

[wisdomtooth]

Who knows what the future will bring.. Research into semiconductors other than silicon might yield lower-temperature CPUs, and if someone comes up with a room-temperture superconductor, that might help too (with motherboard traces and cables, etc.).

It's all a matter of basic research... Something Intel and AMD need to do more of. :clock: