The First Comprehensive Review of the Surge

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
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My heart goes out to the American military in Iraq. These guys are being asked to do an impossible task. Try as hard as they might, the truth of the matter is that this simply isn't our fight and the opposing sides don't want us involved. Even the Shi'te-led police officers are planting IEDs.

IMHO, the Shi'ite political echelon only want us around long enough so that they can get enough big, modern weapons and ammunitions for the real fight that will take place in a couple of years against the influx of Sunnis from around the region.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06....html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Commanders Say Push in Baghdad Is Short of Goal

BAGHDAD, June 3 ? Three months after the start of the Baghdad security plan that has added thousands of American and Iraqi troops to the capital, they control fewer than one-third of the city?s neighborhoods, far short of the initial goal for the operation, according to some commanders and an internal military assessment.

The American assessment, completed in late May, found that American and Iraqi forces were able to ?protect the population? and ?maintain physical influence over? only 146 of the 457 Baghdad neighborhoods.

In the remaining 311 neighborhoods, troops have either not begun operations aimed at rooting out insurgents or still face ?resistance,? according to the one-page assessment, which was provided to The New York Times and summarized reports from brigade and battalion commanders in Baghdad.

The assessment offers the first comprehensive look at the progress of the effort to stabilize Baghdad with the heavy influx of additional troops. The last remaining American units in the troop increase are just now arriving.

Violence has diminished in many areas, but it is especially chronic in mixed Shiite-Sunni neighborhoods in western Baghdad, several senior officers said. Over all, improvements have not yet been as widespread or lasting across Baghdad, they acknowledged.

The operation ?is at a difficult point right now, to be sure,? said Brig. Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, the deputy commander of the First Cavalry Division, which has responsibility for Baghdad.

In an interview, he said that while military planners had expected to make greater gains by now, that has not been possible in large part because Iraqi police and army units, which were expected to handle basic security tasks, like manning checkpoints and conducting patrols, have not provided all the forces promised, and in some cases have performed poorly.

That is forcing American commanders to conduct operations to remove insurgents from some areas multiple times. The heavily Shiite security forces have also repeatedly failed to intervene in some areas when fighters, who fled or laid low when the American troops arrived, resumed sectarian killings.

?Until you have the ability to have a presence on the street by people who are seen as honest and who are not letting things come back in,? said General Brooks, referring to the Iraqi police units, ?you can?t shift into another area and expect that place to stay the way it was.?

When planners devised the Baghdad security plan late last year, they had assumed most Baghdad neighborhoods would be under control around July, according to a senior American military officer, so the emphasis could shift into restoring services and rebuilding the neighborhoods as the summer progressed.

?We were way too optimistic,? said the officer, adding that September is now the goal for establishing basic security in most neighborhoods, the same month that Bush administration officials have said they plan to review the progress of the plan.

Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the senior American ground commander in Iraq, said in a brief interview that he never believed that a midsummer timetable for establishing security in Baghdad was realistic. ?This was always going to be conditions-driven,? he said, noting that he always had expected it would take until fall to establish security across much of the city.

But in order to meet that timetable, he added, the Iraqi Security Forces would have to make strides in coming months at maintaining security. ?Ultimately the I.S.F., and specifically the police, are the key to holding an area,? he said. ?We have to within the next four months move them more toward holding the areas we have cleared.?

The last of the five combat brigades ordered to Iraq as reinforcements as part of the security plan will increase the number of American troops in the city to around 30,000, up from 21,000 before the operation, an American officer said.

In addition, around 30,000 Iraqi Army and national police forces and another 21,000 policemen have been deployed in Baghdad. Many of the Iraqi units have turned up at less than full strength and other units have been redeployed from the capital, General Brooks said, leaving fewer than expected.

American commanders have also had to send troops outside the capital, to deal with a sharp rise in violence in Diyala Province and to search for American soldiers kidnapped south of the capital.

In some parts of the city, commanders have yet to attempt large-scale clearing operations. For example, American forces have moved into only a small portion of Sadr City, the vast slum on the city?s east side that is a Shiite stronghold.

Sending large number of troops in there could incite heavy violence and opposition from Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki?s largely Shiite government, several officers said.

The problems facing American troops are illustrated in troubled western Baghdad. In the Rashid district there, the First Battalion, Fourth Brigade of the First Infantry Division has been working since March to carry out the security push.

When the battalion, commanded by Lt. Col. Patrick Frank, moved in, it was replacing a lone American Army company of 125 soldiers. Yet even with three times as many soldiers patrolling the area, violence has worsened. Last month, 249 bodies were found in the sector, up from 98 the month Colonel Frank arrived, according to statistics compiled by the battalion.

Lately, his troops have been hit by a wave of roadside bomb attacks that have killed five of them and wounded 13 others. ?We have a tough fight ahead of us,? he said.

The district includes Ameel, Baya, Jihad and Furat, mostly mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods abutting the road to the Baghdad airport where his troops have established three patrol bases. Before the new strategy, there were none.

The area, a mixture of poorer urban slums and middle-class dwellings, once home to many retired professionals, has been troubled for years. Violence dipped there and across the city in the first months of the year, but has since worsened.

Militants, many associated with the Mahdi Army of the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, have resumed a push to drive Sunnis from their few enclaves, American commanders said. One of the area?s last Sunni mosques was bombed Wednesday.

?This area used to be primarily Sunni, but in the last six months Jaish al-Mahdi has conducted essentially a cleansing campaign,? said Colonel Frank, using the Arabic name for the Mahdi Army.

In addition to carrying out sectarian killings, the Mahdi Army controls two of the area?s three gas stations, which refuse to sell to most Sunnis. Gunmen regularly attacked trash trucks when they entered Sunni areas until the American military began providing security. Sunni homes are also the targets of arson attacks if their occupants fail to heed warnings to leave, he said.

Sunni insurgents have fought back as well, with two large car bomb attacks in largely Shiite sections of Baya and Ameel that killed more than 60 people, officers said.

The sectarian violence was especially disheartening to some American officers because it occurred in May, the same month that they were undertaking the centerpiece of the Baghdad security plan ? a neighborhood clearing operation.

The battalion?s troops, augmented by more than 2,000 soldiers in armored Stryker vehicles, went block by block through the neighborhood, arresting suspected insurgents and destroying arms caches.

But since the Stryker unit has moved on to a different area of Baghdad, ?there?s been a reinfiltration? by Shiite fighters and intimidation squads, who had left the area when the operation began, said Capt. Tim Wright, the company commander responsible for the neighborhood.

In addition to the dumped bodies being found every day, more Sunni families are departing. Soon, he said, they may all be gone.

Colonel Frank, of Cuba, N.Y., who served a previous Iraq tour in Mosul in 2003 with the 101st Airborne Division, said his forces were having some success in neighboring Ameel at keeping sectarian violence under control. Thirty Sunni families have returned to the neighborhood recently, he said.

But American officers worry that many members of the largely Shiite police force sympathize or collaborate with the Mahdi Army.

The local commander of the Iraqi national police, a force run by the Shiite-run Interior Ministry, has been replaced three times since March.

One of those commanders, Col. Nadir al-Jabouri, a Shiite described by Colonel Frank as the most aggressive and even-handed Iraqi officer he had seen. But he was detained in late March by the Interior Ministry and accused of having ties to insurgents.

?He was not a protector of the people; he was a terrorist,? said Col. Vhafir Kader Jowda, his Shiite replacement.

American patrols have been attacked in a wave of deadly bombings recently, sometimes within sight of police checkpoints, officers said.

Ten soldiers under Colonel Frank?s command have been killed since March. At least eight of the recent attacks in the area have used explosively formed penetrators, or E.F.P.?s, powerful bombs able to pierce armored Humvees.

When Colonel Frank went to the Ameel police station recently accompanied by a reporter and asked for help in capturing a local Shiite sheik believed to be behind the bombings, the police official he was meeting with spoke in a whisper. ?They listen to us,? he said, pointing to a ventilation grill on his wall. ?I am in danger just by meeting with you.?

A few weeks earlier, angered by the attacks on his soldiers, Colonel Frank ordered a video camera hidden near an abandoned swimming pool along a main road in Ameel, near a police checkpoint, where patrols had been hit repeatedly.

When the video was examined after another attack, it showed two Iraqi policemen talking with companions, who were heard off-camera, apparently laying an explosive device. Minutes after the policemen were seen driving away, the camera showed a powerful bomb detonating as an American Humvee came into view.

The video of the attack, which just missed the vehicle and caused no casualties, was shown to a reporter from The New York Times.

After police commanders were confronted with the video in mid-May, six Iraqi officers were arrested, Colonel Frank said.

But the episode has not been forgotten. At a weekly meeting where military commanders and police chiefs sit around a horseshoe-shaped conference table at one of the American bases, Capt. Adel Fakry, the Ameel police commander, complained that American soldiers on patrol were showing ?distrust? toward his officers.

?The reason there is distrust,? Colonel Frank responded, his voice rising, ?is because I have a video of six Iraqi officers placing a bomb against my soldiers, and they came from your station.?

There had been ?some mistakes,? Captain Fakry responded, looking taken aback by the confrontation. Not all of the six officers were from his station, he added before ending the conversation by flipping open his cellphone and making a call while the meeting continued.

The same distrust has hampered relations throughout Baghdad since the strategy began. In Shula, a neighborhood just east of Kadhimiya, north of Rashid, American troops in March discovered a group of Iraqis in police uniforms setting up an E.F.P. near a bridge. They were using police vehicles to provide cover.

The American soldiers killed two of the bomb planters. They later discovered that one had a badge granting him wide access to the Green Zone, the fortified area in central Baghdad where the American Embassy and most Iraqi government buildings are situated.

?That?s the level of penetration that these guys have,? said Lt. Col. Steven M. Miska, deputy commander of the Second Brigade, First Infantry Division, which is charged with controlling northwestern Baghdad.

:(
 

DealMonkey

Lifer
Nov 25, 2001
13,136
1
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Yup, they fight with us during the day and against us at night. That sure seems like a "war" we're highly unlikely to win, regardless of what ProfJohn thinks.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
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The surge is definitely working---despite the results of the 11/06 election, GWB&co. are clearly still in charge of the Iraqi occupation until 9/07. We can issue the death kneel on the mini-surge plan only after congress takes away the shrub's allowance and not before.----and the above link only talks about results in Iraq----which was never what the mini-surge plan was created to do. But for inspired fiction---I have to give the mini-surge plan at least a C grade---but everyone with any realistic brains never expected the plan to work.

But the surge plan has sure has frozen congress. The only question is---when even the US military can't endorse the fiction of the surge---what new inspired slogan plan will GWB&co. come up with next so they can still be the lone decider's on the debacle in Iraq?
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
All Bush has to hope for now is that two-thirds of Congress doesn't turn anti-war before he leaves office. The U.S. WILL withdraw from Iraq with tail between its legs. Bush just wants it to be on someone else's watch, so wasting the lives of American's young soldiers in this doomed "surge" was any easy decision for him.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,161
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Originally posted by: shira
All Bush has to hope for now is that two-thirds of Congress doesn't turn anti-war before he leaves office. The U.S. WILL withdraw from Iraq with tail between its legs. Bush just wants it to be on someone else's watch, so wasting the lives of American's young soldiers in this doomed "surge" was any easy decision for him.
Yea I am sure that is EXACTLY what Bush was thinking... how can I kill more Americans... :roll:
 

dahunan

Lifer
Jan 10, 2002
18,191
3
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: shira
All Bush has to hope for now is that two-thirds of Congress doesn't turn anti-war before he leaves office. The U.S. WILL withdraw from Iraq with tail between its legs. Bush just wants it to be on someone else's watch, so wasting the lives of American's young soldiers in this doomed "surge" was any easy decision for him.
Yea I am sure that is EXACTLY what Bush was thinking... how can I kill more Americans... :roll:

The whole plan was a failure from the first day and now what has Bush achieved other than 3000+ dead American soldiers, 10,000+ seriously injured and about $400,000,000,000 stolen from American citizens?

^^ Did all that really help America in some way?
 

1EZduzit

Lifer
Feb 4, 2002
11,833
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: shira
All Bush has to hope for now is that two-thirds of Congress doesn't turn anti-war before he leaves office. The U.S. WILL withdraw from Iraq with tail between its legs. Bush just wants it to be on someone else's watch, so wasting the lives of American's young soldiers in this doomed "surge" was any easy decision for him.
Yea I am sure that is EXACTLY what Bush was thinking... how can I kill more Americans... :roll:

I wonder what he was thinking when he walked away from his Texas Air National Guard commitment and his million dollars + worth of training to campaign, better someone else get killed them me?

Yeah, Bush really cares about the average americans, as much as we care for CEO's and their ilk.
 

rchiu

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2002
3,846
0
0
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: shira
All Bush has to hope for now is that two-thirds of Congress doesn't turn anti-war before he leaves office. The U.S. WILL withdraw from Iraq with tail between its legs. Bush just wants it to be on someone else's watch, so wasting the lives of American's young soldiers in this doomed "surge" was any easy decision for him.
Yea I am sure that is EXACTLY what Bush was thinking... how can I kill more Americans... :roll:

Naa, all Bush thinks is what his legacy gonna be, and he sure don't wanna be the president that started a war only to end it with tail between his leg. As to how many American is gonna die for his legacy, I doubt he really cares.
 

OrByte

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2000
9,303
144
106
After "The surge" has failed we still have to go through:

"The last stand"

and

"Revenge of the PRESIDENT"
 

Martin

Lifer
Jan 15, 2000
29,178
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How dare you measure progress or set benchmarks? Don't you know that these things only embolden the enemy?

The only assessment the administration cares about is what Bush's gut tells him.
 

BMW540I6speed

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2005
1,055
0
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We're fighting the guys (the Sunni minority) who we really like to run Iraq; we're pretending to tolerate the guys (the Shiite majority) who we really like to NOT run Iraq.

The only guys who like us (the Kurds) are a minority who really want their own nation which we don't want, because doing so breaks up the demographic fiction that is present-day Iraq and would piss off Turkey, who have their own Kurdish "problem". So we'll probably piss them off, too, eventually.

It really feels like a textbook entry in the making, a case-study in what not to do; I can almost see the historians scratching their heads at early 21st century American foreign policy, wondering what in God's name the Bush League had in mind when they invaded Iraq.

 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: shira
All Bush has to hope for now is that two-thirds of Congress doesn't turn anti-war before he leaves office. The U.S. WILL withdraw from Iraq with tail between its legs. Bush just wants it to be on someone else's watch, so wasting the lives of American's young soldiers in this doomed "surge" was any easy decision for him.
Yea I am sure that is EXACTLY what Bush was thinking... how can I kill more Americans... :roll:

Hehe, well, he also positively glows when he hears of Americans coming back with no eyes, or arms, or legs! It's like Christmas every day for him! Body bags and coffins are icing on his cake!

-------------------------------------
Such sarcasm goes over the line.

Again and you can come back tp P&N when the surge is over

Anandtech Moderator
 

ericlp

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,137
225
106
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Wow, half of the posts on this thread are about me...

Popular guy around here....

Gotta be ruff defending bush and his GOP.... Do you still have your bush bumper sticker on your car?

 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
Originally posted by: ericlp
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Wow, half of the posts on this thread are about me...

Popular guy around here....

Gotta be ruff defending bush and his GOP.... Do you still have your bush bumper sticker on your car?

I always lol when I see those :) They always seem to be on old people cars or ridiculous trucks.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Wow, half of the posts on this thread are about me...

I find it really strange that you would take any joy in being talked about in a negative light.
But historically, you have been the one pointing out that the surge was working so well and all that. And now that we have an official report that says the surge is not working, rather than defending your viewpoint, you are crowing about being mentioned.

Get a clue---this is about your credibility---why should any on this forum pay any attention to you when your judgment and predictive ability is so poor? This forum is about politics and discussing what ideas will work and those that won't. And being correct does matter.

And it does remind me of that old song---"Your so vain, I betcha you think this song is about you."
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,559
4
0
You KNOW that in 2-3 days the righy propaganda machine will tell us how great the surge is working.
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,512
2
81
Well honestly, is this a surprise to anyone? I don't think so. It's foolish to think that a little surge like this would do the trick when it would probably take hundreds if thousands to troops to secure Iraq right now. This surge is nothing but a desperation move by Bush because he simply has no other ideas.
 

Narmer

Diamond Member
Aug 27, 2006
5,292
0
0
Originally posted by: BMW540I6speed
We're fighting the guys (the Sunni minority) who we really like to run Iraq; we're pretending to tolerate the guys (the Shiite majority) who we really like to NOT run Iraq.

The only guys who like us (the Kurds) are a minority who really want their own nation which we don't want, because doing so breaks up the demographic fiction that is present-day Iraq and would piss off Turkey, who have their own Kurdish "problem". So we'll probably piss them off, too, eventually.

It really feels like a textbook entry in the making, a case-study in what not to do; I can almost see the historians scratching their heads at early 21st century American foreign policy, wondering what in God's name the Bush League had in mind when they invaded Iraq.

Military procurement and oil.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
The First Comprehensive Review of the Surge

The American assessment, completed in late May, found that American and Iraqi forces were able to ?protect the population? and ?maintain physical influence over? only 146 of the 457 Baghdad neighborhoods.

In the remaining 311 neighborhoods, troops have either not begun operations aimed at rooting out insurgents or still face ?resistance,? according to the one-page assessment, which was provided to The New York Times and summarized reports from brigade and battalion commanders in Baghdad.

The assessment offers the first comprehensive look at the progress of the effort to stabilize Baghdad with the heavy influx of additional troops. The last remaining American units in the troop increase are just now arriving.

Isn't is a bit early to be talking of a "comprehensive review"? (maybe the author meant "PREview") It was done BEFORE all the troops even arrived.

<shrug> Whatever.

Fern
 

Kwaipie

Golden Member
Nov 30, 2005
1,326
0
0
Iraq has always been about the Military Industrial Complex. Some conservatives feel it is the only way to stabilize the economy. Bush has gotten his wish in spades. Although, he should have picked a country with a bigger naval presence to increase our Navy and bring back the battleships again.

Putin sees this as well, hence his recent decrying of our missile defense shield. Now watch as the Russian arms manufacturers start ramping up production.

Cold War 2 - It's good for the economy.
 

dahunan

Lifer
Jan 10, 2002
18,191
3
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^^^ Iran is our Navy FearProfit Machine ... they have high tech antiship and antisub weaponry and so we need to invest more in these areas to grow our EMPIRE Tools