The explanation for those weird Siberian craters isn't comforting

[shira]

Those mysterious Siberian craters? Looks like they're the result of large pockets of methane gas pushing their way through permafrost thawed and melted by increasing temperatures. These are the first such events that climatologists are aware of, and is quite worrisome, because methane is a much more efficient greenhouse than CO2. This could lead to a runaway cycle of methane release - the so-called "clathrate gun" hypothesis. But maybe it's not as bad as we climate-change worriers think:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

However, there is stronger evidence that runaway methane clathrate breakdown may have caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment (such as ocean acidification and ocean stratification) and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years; these events include the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago.

So why worry? Probably, this methane release isn't going to wipe out humanity during the next hundred years or so. Probably, mass extinctions are still several thousand years away. We can all still fiddle while the permafrost burns.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...rater-mystery-and-the-news-isnt-good/?hpid=z1

Researchers have long contended that the epicenter of global warming is also farthest from the reach of humanity. It’s in the barren landscapes of the frozen North, where red-cheeked children wear fur, the sun barely rises in the winter and temperatures can plunge to 122 degrees below zero. Such a place is the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia, translated as “the ends of the Earth,” a desolate spit of land where a group called the Nenets live.

By now, you’ve heard of the crater on the Yamal Peninsula. It’s the one that suddenly appeared, yawning nearly 200 feet in diameter, and made several rounds in the global viral media machine. The adjectives most often used to describe it: giant, mysterious, curious. Scientists were subsequently “baffled.” Locals were “mystified.” There were whispers that aliens were responsible. Nearby residents peddled theories of “bright flashes” and “celestial bodies.”

There’s now a substantiated theory about what created the crater. And the news isn’t so good.

It may be methane gas, released by the thawing of frozen ground. According to a recent Nature article, “air near the bottom of the crater contained unusually high concentrations of methane — up to 9.6% — in tests conducted at the site on 16 July, says Andrei Plekhanov, an archaeologist at the Scientific Centre of Arctic Studies in Salekhard, Russia. Plekhanov, who led an expedition to the crater, says that air normally contains just 0.000179% methane.”

The scientist said the methane release may be related to Yamal’s unusually hot summers in 2012 and 2013, which were warmer by an average of 5 degrees Celsius. “As temperatures rose, the researchers suggest, permafrost thawed and collapsed, releasing methane that had been trapped in the icy ground,” the report stated.

Plekhanov explained to Nature that the conclusion is preliminary. He would like to study how much methane is contained in the air trapped inside the crater’s walls. Such a task, however, could be difficult. “Its rims are slowly melting and falling into the crater,” the researcher told the science publication. “You can hear the ground falling, you can hear the water running; it’s rather spooky.”

“Gas pressure increased until it was high enough to push away the overlaying layers in a powerful injection, forming the crater,” explained geochemist Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten of Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute, adding that he’s never seen anything like the crater.

Some scientists contend the thawing of such terrain, rife with centuries of carbon, would release incredible amounts of methane gas and affect global temperatures. “Pound for pound, the comparative impact of [methane gas] on climate change is over 20 times greater than [carbon dioxide] over a 100-year period,” reported the Environmental Protection Agency.

As the Associated Press put it in 2010, the melting of Siberia’s permafrost is “a climate time bomb waiting to explode if released into the atmosphere.”

Researchers with Stockholm University’s Department of Applied Environmental Science recently witnessed methane releases in the East Siberian Arctic Ocean. They found that “elevated methane levels [were] about ten times higher than in background seawater,” wrote scientist Orjan Gustafsson on his blog last week. He added: “This was somewhat of a surprise … This is information that is crucial if we are to be able to provide scientific estimations of how these methane releases may develop in the future.”

NASA also found the situation to be precarious. “The fragile and rapidly changing Arctic region is home to large reservoirs of methane, a potent greenhouse gas,” scientists wrote in 2012. It’s “vulnerable to being released into the atmosphere, where it can add to global warming.”

Now, as two additional craters have also recently been discovered in Siberia, researchers worry the craters may portend changes to local Siberian life. Two have appeared close to a large gas field. “If [a release] happens at the Bovanenkovskoye gas field that is only 30 kilometers away, it could lead to an accident, and the same if it happens in a village,” Russian scientist Plekhanov told Nature.

 

[Paratus]

I'm not surprised our resident denialists are ignoring this post.

I hate to say it, but it would probably be better to cap and flare the methane then let it escape into the atmosphere.

Although judging from the size of the Arctic and the potential amount of methane, there's probably too much to do anything directly about it.

 

[xBiffx]

I'm not surprised our resident denialists are ignoring this post.

I hate to say it, but it would probably be better to cap and flare the methane then let it escape into the atmosphere.

Although judging from the size of the Arctic and the potential amount of methane, there's probably too much to do anything directly about it.

Probably because, like volcanoes, there is little to be done about it but wait and see.

I mean, it must really suck for you when you realize that we live on a planet that has billions of years of dead/decaying shit under its outer crust. What exactly do you propose we do about it? Act like its not there or that its our fault?

 

[JTsyo]

I'm not surprised our resident denialists are ignoring this post.

I hate to say it, but it would probably be better to cap and flare the methane then let it escape into the atmosphere.

Although judging from the size of the Arctic and the potential amount of methane, there's probably too much to do anything directly about it.

This is not a well. The methane is distributed all along the landscape. You can't really contain it once the snow starts melting.

 

[Newell Steamer]

I am sure there will be many more phenomena like this - but, the greatest one of all, is the denial and persecution of when prompted to actually do something about it; i.e. slow down climate change.

When it gets bad, it will be far too late to really do anything about it.

It is a shame when you could prevent something and refuse to do so.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

I am sure there will be many more phenomena like this - but, the greatest one of all, is the denial and persecution of when prompted to actually do something about it; i.e. slow down climate change.

When it gets bad, it will be far too late to really do anything about it.

It is a shame when you could prevent something and refuse to do so.

What do you suggest we do?

 

[JockoJohnson]

What do you suggest we do?

Al Gore should carbon tax Mother Earth for having such a huge carbon footprint.

 

[davmat787]

What do you suggest we do?

Surely relinquishing more of your money to the government will fix things, right?

For any proposed tax or law that is supposed to help slow the rate of man made climate change, is am analysis of just how quickly the savings of say Co2 output will be offset by the growing demands of India and China.

It makes no sense to ask for more money if the resulting decreases in man made causes to climate change are erased by one month of increased Co2 output from India's new car owners.

A global problem requires global cooperation, something I feel will be impossible until the problem becomes too dire.

 

[FerrelGeek]

Unless you get China, India, and the rest of the developing countries in Asia on board, all you'll be doing is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

I am sure there will be many more phenomena like this - but, the greatest one of all, is the denial and persecution of when prompted to actually do something about it; i.e. slow down climate change.

When it gets bad, it will be far too late to really do anything about it.

It is a shame when you could prevent something and refuse to do so.

 

[FerrelGeek]

Exactly. These 2 countries make up (iirc) close to 1/3 of the Earth's population; more that 1/4 anyway. Good luck convincing them to slow down their economies.

Surely relinquishing more of your money to the government will fix things, right?

For any proposed tax or law that is supposed to help slow the rate of man made climate change, is am analysis of just how quickly the savings of say Co2 output will be offset by the growing demands of India and China.

It makes no sense to ask for more money if the resulting decreases in man made causes to climate change are erased by one month of increased Co2 output from India's new car owners.

A global problem requires global cooperation, something I feel will be impossible until the problem becomes too dire.

 

[Jaskalas]

1: Those things are called Pingo

Pingo is an Inuit term for an isolated, dome shaped hill, used to describe large ice-cored mounds found in the permafrost regions of Siberia and various other places in the Arctic.

2: If you want to stop CO2 emissions, are you prepared to tell the developing world to stay poor and impoverished? Do you think they'll listen?

most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago.

What do you suggest we do?

If one really believed an ELE was imminent due to CO2 emissions, the only answer that would be effective is nuclear winter to wipe humanity off the face of the earth. Because if you listen to the alarmists that'd be nicer to the planet than what we are supposedly doing.

Of course they want to have their cake and eat it too. Their primary solution is to control us and slowly, insidiously but consistently attack our industry. What they fail to appreciate is that the poorer mankind is, the less likely we are to make it to a scientific revolution that would free us from the human = CO2 emission equation.

 

[theeedude]

Or we could use alternative energy and transportation. Sounds better than mass extinction and/or nuclear winter to wipe out humanity to me. I am off on my morning bike ride.

 

[Newell Steamer]

What do you suggest we do?

Take much better care of our environment - which is easier said than done.

We rely on the environment for food. Not just sun tanning, snow boarding and comfortable weather. But, the stigma associated with climate change has people dismiss any call for action to preserve and maintain said environment. I am not sure how quickly we will be able to figure out how to eat, when the weather has decimated all of our crops and livestock.

Also, is all the data totally wrong about climate change? I don't think so. And, lets look at this latest symptom; the warmer weather has softened the ice, which released trapped gas underneath - would anyone have been able to predict that as a possible result of climate change? Nope.

So, we have the inability to predict the next climate change symptom, and we aren't 100% right - but, we have things clearly happening, which we attribute to our mistreatment of the environment. Now, even medical doctors didn't get everything right initially (early doctors refused to wash their hands) - so, I am not sure why everyone is expecting climatologists to be 100% all of the time.

And, we do need to rethink this whole carbon emissions credits/debits bullshit - because it doesn't amount to anything real.

So, I would focus on getting rid of the stigma of climate change and start thinking how to maintain an environment, that we need to live off of, when the weather goes bad. I don't think any sort of reversal will occur - since nothing has really been right, from the predictions earlier climatologists are wrong.

I think it will come down to adaptability - not reversal, carbon credits and sensationalist criticism (that is more about politics, than science).

 

[Jaskalas]

Or we could use alternative energy and transportation. Sounds better than mass extinction and/or nuclear winter to wipe out humanity to me. I am off on my morning bike ride.

Alternative energy? I support that, but I'm assuming you want a solution TODAY, not next century.

Look at that chart for CO2 emissions and tell me you're going to stop that in the next decade.

 

[dank69]

Unless you get China, India, and the rest of the developing countries in Asia on board, all you'll be doing is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

China is already on board.

 

[Paul98]

With where we are now with battery technology and renewable energy, and what we will see in the next 10 years. Things like solar are getting more efficient and cheaper every year. If we make it so solar can be installed cheaper and remove the red tape the US can cut prices on solar by a LOT. Batteries are doing the same thing, then there is Tesla's battery factory which should lower costs by about 30%. Then there are other major car manufactures with 200+ mile range cars. We can expect 500+ mile range in the next 5-10 years at a reasonable price.

These are just a couple examples of things coming into their own that will help curb man made global warming.

 

[Genx87]

China is already on board.

Believe it when I see it.

 

[theeedude]

Alternative energy? I support that, but I'm assuming you want a solution TODAY, not next century.

Look at that chart for CO2 emissions and tell me you're going to stop that in the next decade.

Alternative energy is here. You can put solar on the roof today. You can buy an electric or hybrid car, or commute to work by bike, today. You can improve your home insulation, today.
Just because you can't do everything today to solve this all by yourself, doesn't mean you can't start today and do what you can. This is not an all or nothing proposition.

 

[Paul98]

I must say I am excited for these long range, reasonably priced electric cars.

 

[xBiffx]

I must say I am excited for these long range, reasonably priced electric cars.

And where is the electricity going to come from? You're ignoring the root cause of the proposed problem.

If everyone went out and replaced their cars with electrics today, the world would be in a real shit storm.

 

[Spungo]

What do you suggest we do?

We would need to reduce emissions about about 200%. The first 100% gets us down to 0 emissions, which isn't good enough. We would need to capture the stuff we've released for the past 100 years to actually stop the warming at this point.
Think of it like the temperature on a nice sunny day. The sun isn't getting hotter, but the roads and sidewalks are still heating up from 10am to maybe 2pm. Why? Because equilibrium is not immediate. It takes time for things to heat up and cool down. At our current CO2 levels, we're not at equilibrium. We're still on track to warm even if emissions are down to zero.

1
I don't know what the solution is. Historically, CO2 was pulled out of the atmosphere by binding with calcium and magnesium to form calcium and magnesium carbonate (chalk).

2
The other thing to do would be to put particles in the air to force global cooling. There was a real debate 60 years ago about global cooling vs global warming. CO2 causes warming, but we know for a fact that clouds reduce the planet's surface temperature; it's quite measurable when a large volcano shoots ash into the air. The weather in the US was weird for a few days after 9/11 because air traffic completely stopped. The simple act of flying jets across the country has a measurable effect on the weather.

My bet is that we'll do something like paragraph 2.
The chemtrail people will shit bricks when the government starts talking about commercial jets dumping particulates in the atmosphere to cool the planet. If I were in charge of that project, I would try to find a way to have at least 1 fluorine atom be part of the compound being used. Conspiracy theorists' heads would explode.

 

[davmat787]

Alternative energy is here. You can put solar on the roof today. You can buy an electric or hybrid car, or commute to work by bike, today. You can improve your home insulation, today.
Just because you can't do everything today to solve this all by yourself, doesn't mean you can't start today and do what you can. This is not an all or nothing proposition.

The .gov should give like $500 million dollars to some people to start a solar panel manufacturing company. With that kind of head start, what could possibly go wrong?

IIRC, the Chinese are dumping solar panels on the market, and dumping in this context means selling them below cost and market value with the intention of burying your foreign competition and preventing new competition from entering the market.

I am fairly certain, but not absolutely positive, that the practice of dumping products is illegal per most trade agreements and/or the WTO. Again IIRC one of the Japanese auto manufacturers was charged with this when the market for their cars was emerging here in the U.S..

Alternative energy just doesn't seem ready for prime time usage here in the U.S.. What I hope will happen is the maturation of alternative energy sources will make them simply financially attractive in the next 15-30 years, during which time we finally upgrade our cobbled together and outdated grid in preparation for these new energy sources.

 

[AntonioHG]

*sigh* More evidence that we need to change our ways...

 

[Paul98]

And where is the electricity going to come from? You're ignoring the root cause of the proposed problem.

If everyone went out and replaced their cars with electrics today, the world would be in a real shit storm.

I am guessing you didn't bother to read my previous post?

 

[K1052]

And where is the electricity going to come from? You're ignoring the root cause of the proposed problem.

If everyone went out and replaced their cars with electrics today, the world would be in a real shit storm.

Any realistic switchover would take a decade at least from when such cars become economical to purchase. More than enough time to build sufficient additional generation capacity.