Oh come on, its in my Oil/Gas thread of how it drops around election time so it's a non-issue for the election.
Don't worry they will crank it back up with their same tired excuses again before you know it and you and the rest of the gullable Americans will continue to buy the excuses.
Too bad you don't read my threads, in the economy thread the bottom falling out of the house of cards market was clearly spelled out since 2001 when I said all those massive empty subdivisions being built was going to bite the country in the ass.
Engineer
Elite Member
- Oct 9, 1999
- 39,230
- 701
- 126
Not only did many people think that the oil bubble would pop, many thought that oil was the catalyst that would bring down the US (and possibly world) economy as it introduced inflation into every part of the US economy...the ole "straw that broke the camel's back" so to speak.
i'm pretty sure economist saw this coming last year. The bottom fell out and yet earlier this year you have the President, the Repub nominee, Treasury Secretary proclaiming that the economy and the financial system is DOING FINE. Even myself, a comman man, heard about the high potential for problems back in early 2007. Give me a fucking break, the economy is a joke right now.
frostedflakes
Diamond Member
- Mar 1, 2005
- 7,925
- 1
- 81
To be fair, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, etc. were all saying the same thing. They're all a bunch of morons IMO.
Seriously, leave this forum. You're contributing sheer idiocy, nothing more.
OR you're great at trolling, I can't tell.
Nah. Everybody figured this was sustainable, right?
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepa...iew/27leon_graph2.html
Not to mention the pyramid of financial derivatives built on that flight of fancy...
This thread should be preserved forever, like a time capsule of stupidity. I'm sure there's some other Iraq and McCain/GoP threads that can go into the capsule as well, so future generations can witness what happens when tireless partisan cheerleading meets epic ignorance.
:laugh:
:laugh:
While mainstream economists have been saying the economy is fine and all that, more cautious, grounded economists have been predicting this for a couple years now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
This economist, Peter Schiff, basically outlined the entire credit crisis back in 2006 and he was laughed at people that were much like you. Those who could not fathom an alternative viewpoint and see the numbers for what they really mean instead of what one wants them to mean.
Secondly, the government was warned of this crisis back in 2006 and chose to ignore the warning signs, (http://www.foxnews.com/politic...gns-financial-crisis/). To say that this snuck up on us is revisionist history. We chose to ignore the warning signs and basically said "If we pray really hard, it won't happen."
So quit trying to make it look like we were a deer caught in headlights, more like the US was a chain-smoking, obese man who believed he wouldn't get a heart attack.
GDP is adjusted for inflation, and the reason it comes out positive is because the people who are inflating are cooking the books and understating how much they're doing it by many percentage points. They're bogus, and you can learn how in my sig. If we were calculating inflation honestly like we were 30 years ago, the numbers would be in the negatives every quarter for the past year. Way to do zero research, take the government's weatherman's numbers at face value, and shout them down at us like they came from Mt. Sinai. We get it, the government thinks it's sunny and they're doing a good job. Meanwhile, in reality, it's fucking pouring.
First
Lifer
- Jun 3, 2002
- 10,518
- 271
- 136
You layman economists are so easy to finger and break down it's almost not worth it. But just in case there are a few guests roaming the boards who don't quite know if what you say is true, a few facts: 69% of economists predicted we were in or headed into recession before this past summer, and a majority (i.e. the smart ones) were steering away from dangerous mortgage securities when it was clear their risks were nebulous and uncertain. Read up here.
Second, here are the numerous things Schiff has gotten wrong before and doesn't understand:
1) He uses the Webster definition of inflation instead of the accepted definition of inflation used by economists across the globe (core CPI). He claims inflation is probably closer to 10% yet when pressed to come up with a methodology for calculating inflation, he falls flat on his face and literally says "I just know that the way the government calculates it is wrong".
2) Schiff claims that the Federal Reserve, including Bernanke and others, purposefully lie and distort inflation numbers (among other statistics). When asked what Bernanke's motivation would be and why Greenspan, Volcker, and every Fed chairman and economic adviser split between half a dozen Democrat/Republicans administrations over the last several decades didn't pick up on this conspiracy to trick consumers into using false inflation and economic statistics, Schiff is notably silent and has no explanation. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucDkoqwflF4
3) Schiff makes the laughably ridiculous claim that a collapse of the U.S. economy will benefit the rest of the global economy because of the eventual collapse of the U.S. dollar; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR_ssZzQyYQ. No mention that every crash and recession in modern history (81-82, 87, 91-92, 00-01) was followed or simultaneous with a global slowdown. Oh, and in case you're curious, the last 3 months have put to rest that nonsense, with most industrialized/Western economies feeling the downturn even worse than the U.S.
4) Schiff is in fact a conspiracy theorist and has been on the Alex Jones show for a while now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5vGxCCdesM
Bottom line, Schiff doesn't understand why inflation is calculated the way it is because, sadly, he's not very well informed on marcoeconomic theory. Which makes some sense considering he was Ron Paul's economic adviser.
First
Lifer
- Jun 3, 2002
- 10,518
- 271
- 136
Nah, pretty weak argument considered you bald-faced denied we were in a recession as recently as the month you posted this thread a mere two weeks before the economic collapse, even though a vast majority of people (economists and otherwise) had accepted it as fact we were in a recession and, of course, it has now been confirmed by NBER we've been in one since 12/07.
Honestly, I'd find something else to do in your spare time considering your record on predicting business cycles, elections, and social movements has been proven more bunk than WWF.
You want to bet me $1 he's just going to ignore that and pop up in another thread spouting the same bullshit?
He's as ignorant as Schiff so he'll never be able to counter what you posted.
Look, I'm a microbiologist, I don't know economics as well as some people do nor do I have the interest to read 15 white papers to understand it. However, when Schiff outlined the crisis on those talk shows in 2006 he was eerily close to what actually transpired. Whatever his beliefs are are irrevelant. He nailed it pretty close to what is really going on.
It's a lot better than the other economists saying the economy is strong, don't worry, keep borrowing and keep spending.
really? I'm not afraid of anything, especially when I'm right. My second point also has been left unrefuted, that the government chose to ignore the warning signs. FFS, it's a Fox News link that says it, and if they are reporting it, there's really no way around it.
Wow, by 2006? Anybody with half a brain, a non-biased viewpoint, and a soapbox saw the writing on the wall by 2006. I was posting about it by 2004.
However, he did get a LOT wrong, such as the collapse of the dollar and the skyrocketing of gold and oil.
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