The economy is STILL growing!!!!!!!!!! What happened to the recession???

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,161
7
0
It looks like the worst economy in decade never turned out to be that bad after all.
As many have said it was nothing more than a mental recession.

Gas prices continue to fall. Jobless claims have fallen for three straight weeks. There is apparently some good news developing on the housing front (lowered prices are finally starting to drive people back into the housing market)

My guess is that we see a decent 3rd quarter and then another poor 4th quarter (4th quarters tend to suck) and then perhaps next year we get a real rebound.

Jobless claims drop for 3rd week in a row
Economy rebounds in 2nd quarter
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9 percent pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7 percent growth rate.

The rebound comes after two dismal quarters. The economy actually shrank in the final three months of 2007 and limped into the first quarter at a feeble 0.9 percent pace. The 3.3 percent growth in the spring was the best performance since the third quarter of last year, when the economy was chugging along at a brisk 4.8 percent pace.

Still, the growth pickup is not likely to be seen as a lasting sign that the fragile economy is back on solid ground.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently warned the economy will be weak through the rest of this year. A growing number of analysts fear that the country will hit another economic pothole in the fourth quarter, as the bracing impact of the tax rebates disappears. And there are concerns exports could tail off as other countries' economies slow down.

GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.

The economy is the top concern for Americans. Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama favors a second government stimulus package, while Republican rival John McCain supports free trade and other business measures to energize the economy.

On Wall Street, the GDP report lifted stocks. The Dow Jones industrials were up about 150 points in morning trading.

"Many people thought the sky was falling this spring ... but the economy actually expanded quite solidly," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics Advisors in Holland, Pa.

Still, housing, credit and financial troubles have pounded the economy.

In turn, employers have clamped down on hiring, driving the nation's unemployment rate up to 5.7 percent in July, a four-year high. The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of people signing up for jobless benefits declined last week for the third straight period, but claims remained above 400,000, an indicator of a slowing economy.

Employers have cut jobs every month this year and wage growth is trailing inflation. That combination raises concerns about the future of consumer spending, one of the pillars underpinning the economy.

The biggest factor in the second-quarter's rebound was robust sales of U.S. exports to other countries. The weaker value of the U.S. dollar has bolstered those sales. Exports grew at a 13.2 percent pace in the spring. That was much stronger than the government's initial estimate of a 9.2 percent growth rate, and more than double the 5.1 percent growth rate logged in the first quarter.

Imports, meanwhile, fell at a 7.6 percent annualized pace in the spring, as economic troubles in the U.S. crimped demand for foreign-made goods.

The improved trade picture added 3.1 percentage points to second-quarter GDP, the most since 1980.

U.S. consumers boosted their spending at a 1.7 percent pace in the second quarter. That was slightly better than the 1.5 percent growth rate initially report and marked the best showing in nearly a year. Government stimulus checks of up to $600 a person helped energize shoppers who had hunkered down amid the economy's problems.

One of the country's biggest problems -- the housing collapse -- was evident in the GDP report.

Builders cut back at an annual rate of 15.7 percent in the second quarter-- although that was a better showing than early this year and late last year.

Businesses trimmed spending on equipment and software in the spring. And, they reduced investment in inventories, but not as much as initially estimated by the government. That was another factor contributing to the improved GDP reading.

One measure of corporate profits showed companies losing ground in the second quarter. After-tax profits fell 3.8 percent in the spring, compared with a 1.1 percent increase in the first quarter.

An inflation gauge tied to the GDP report showed all prices rising at a rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the same as initially estimated.

Taking out energy and food, prices rose 2.1 percent. That also was unchanged from the government's previous estimate but remained outside the Federal Reserve's comfort zone.

With the economy still coping with fallout from housing and credit problems, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting on Sept. 16, and probably through the rest of this year.

---

The OP's views in this thread have been sufficiently discredited. Enough. 3/24/09

Harvey
Senior AnandTech Moderator
 

NeoV

Diamond Member
Apr 18, 2000
9,504
2
81
you really have no clue at all, do you? Watch those gas prices fall this weekend as a hurricane moves into the gulf - with another, larger storm a few days after that one.

If Warren Buffet says something about our economy, I believe him.

Three weeks of jobless claims in decline? Big friggen deal.

 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
If we see a recession it is pretty clear baring some disaster it should be mild. What this shows you is the power of the media to tell people their life sucks to the point they start to believe it.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,161
7
0
Eskimo, you know I wondered about that.

I can't find anything that really links the two and explains that the growth is related to inflation.

I think the fact this is being spun as a positive sign is a good thing though. Everyone thought the economy would be shrinking, but it is not. It may not be a great economy, but it is certainly not the disaster the Democrats want us to think it is.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Recession. No recession. I don't give a crap what the conclusion is with that debate.

No matter how you slice it, the economy is in a really bad state of affairs and has a long way to go before it recovers to the point where most will be satisfied. It needs a lot of work. If it is starting to get better then that is great, but don't think for one second that we should just sit around and not do anything about it to make it recover faster and more efficiently. We have work to do.
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,491
0
76
This is why republicans are considered out of touch. I remember back when they would say, "The economy isn't bad! The stock market is doing great!"

 

OrByte

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2000
9,303
144
106
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Recession. No recession. I don't give a crap what the conclusion is with that debate.

No matter how you slice it, the economy is in a really bad state of affairs and has a long way to go before it recovers to the point where most will be satisfied. It needs a lot of work. If it is starting to get better then that is great, but don't think for one second that we should just sit around and not do anything about it to make it recover faster and more efficiently. We have work to do.
It doesnt matter what we call our economy.

Healthcare costs are insane.
Overall cost of living is high
gas prices are still high.
Anyone want to guess what heating oil prices are going to be like this winter?


I agree. There is alot of work to be done. But as an American I am thankful for any good news that we get about our economy.
 

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
2,847
0
0
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Maybe the definition of recession is fubar'd?

Why? Because George Bush is in office?

These numbers are adjusted for inflation.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Originally posted by: OrByte
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Recession. No recession. I don't give a crap what the conclusion is with that debate.

No matter how you slice it, the economy is in a really bad state of affairs and has a long way to go before it recovers to the point where most will be satisfied. It needs a lot of work. If it is starting to get better then that is great, but don't think for one second that we should just sit around and not do anything about it to make it recover faster and more efficiently. We have work to do.
It doesnt matter what we call our economy.

Healthcare costs are insane.
Overall cost of living is high
gas prices are still high.
Anyone want to guess what heating oil prices are going to be like this winter?


I agree. There is alot of work to be done. But as an American I am thankful for any good news that we get about our economy.

I feel the same way. The bottom line here is how our economy is effecting the day to day lives of the majority of Americans. Everything else falls second to that.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Eskimo, you know I wondered about that.

I can't find anything that really links the two and explains that the growth is related to inflation.

I think the fact this is being spun as a positive sign is a good thing though. Everyone thought the economy would be shrinking, but it is not. It may not be a great economy, but it is certainly not the disaster the Democrats want us to think it is.

Eskimo is an idiot, those GDP numbers issued are REAL GDP numbers, i.e. adjusted for inflation.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,161
7
0
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Pro-Jo you realize that inflation is outpacing growth at this point, right?
link
'The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending,'
link
U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth was revised upward, to a 3.3% annual rate, in the second quarter, from the 1.9% preliminary figure released in July. The market had expected a revision to 2.7%.

So the numbers are adjusted for inflation.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Eskimo, you know I wondered about that.

I can't find anything that really links the two and explains that the growth is related to inflation.

I think the fact this is being spun as a positive sign is a good thing though. Everyone thought the economy would be shrinking, but it is not. It may not be a great economy, but it is certainly not the disaster the Democrats want us to think it is.

Eskimo is an idiot, those GDP numbers issued are REAL GDP numbers, i.e. adjusted for inflation.

Gotta love people who don't know what they're talking about.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
All I can tell you is that things are pretty crappy here in D/FW. Lots of stores/restaurants closing, cars piling up on dealer lots, homes going unsold, etc. Anecdotal, I know, but it's worse than I've seen since the early-90s recession.
 

ayabe

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2005
7,449
0
0
Wages are stagnant, prices are through the roof, income inequality not seen since people were dancing the Charleston.

Yes indeed we're doing great. Could we get another tax cut for people making over 2 million a year? I think they deserve it.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Originally posted by: Arkaign
All I can tell you is that things are pretty crappy here in D/FW. Lots of stores/restaurants closing, cars piling up on dealer lots, homes going unsold, etc. Anecdotal, I know, but it's worse than I've seen since the early-90s recession.

That is exactly what I am seeing in my county and the surrounding counties. Top that off with the fact that people here are still finding it extremely difficult to find a job as compared to before this mess. This is the stuff that matters most. The rest of the debate about the current state of our economy and why matters little in comparison. If this kind of stuff exists then the economy is not doing well at all and needs help. That's all there is to it.
 

OrByte

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2000
9,303
144
106
Originally posted by: Arkaign
All I can tell you is that things are pretty crappy here in D/FW. Lots of stores/restaurants closing, cars piling up on dealer lots, homes going unsold, etc. Anecdotal, I know, but it's worse than I've seen since the early-90s recession.

anecdotal for sure but I think you will find this scene playing out in many urban areas.

You just described Sacramento to a "T"
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,890
55,158
136
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Pro-Jo you realize that inflation is outpacing growth at this point, right?
link
'The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending,'
link
U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth was revised upward, to a 3.3% annual rate, in the second quarter, from the 1.9% preliminary figure released in July. The market had expected a revision to 2.7%.

So the numbers are adjusted for inflation.

Hey, I'm glad I was wrong about it. (and I'm happy for JS80... hey man, that funny feeling you're having is actually being right about something.)
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Originally posted by: OrByte
Originally posted by: Arkaign
All I can tell you is that things are pretty crappy here in D/FW. Lots of stores/restaurants closing, cars piling up on dealer lots, homes going unsold, etc. Anecdotal, I know, but it's worse than I've seen since the early-90s recession.

anecdotal for sure but I think you will find this scene playing out in many urban areas.

You just described Sacramento to a "T"

Absolutely. My county and the surrounding counties are almost nothing but urban.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,890
55,158
136
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Originally posted by: OrByte
Originally posted by: Arkaign
All I can tell you is that things are pretty crappy here in D/FW. Lots of stores/restaurants closing, cars piling up on dealer lots, homes going unsold, etc. Anecdotal, I know, but it's worse than I've seen since the early-90s recession.

anecdotal for sure but I think you will find this scene playing out in many urban areas.

You just described Sacramento to a "T"

Absolutely. My county and the surrounding counties are almost nothing but urban.

Well that's sort of been the problem with our economy since 2001. There has been plenty of growth but it has been horribly unevenly distributed (even compared to how things normally are) Average real wages for a worker in the US are lower now than they were in 2000, despite an almost 10% increase in productivity.
 

KGB

Diamond Member
May 11, 2000
3,042
0
0
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
It looks like the worst economy in decade never turned out to be that bad after all.
As many have said it was nothing more than a mental recession.

Gas prices continue to fall. Jobless claims have fallen for three straight weeks. There is apparently some good news developing on the housing front (lowered prices are finally starting to drive people back into the housing market)

My guess is that we see a decent 3rd quarter and then another poor 4th quarter (4th quarters tend to suck) and then perhaps next year we get a real rebound.

Jobless claims drop for 3rd week in a row
Economy rebounds in 2nd quarter
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9 percent pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7 percent growth rate.

The rebound comes after two dismal quarters. The economy actually shrank in the final three months of 2007 and limped into the first quarter at a feeble 0.9 percent pace. The 3.3 percent growth in the spring was the best performance since the third quarter of last year, when the economy was chugging along at a brisk 4.8 percent pace.

Still, the growth pickup is not likely to be seen as a lasting sign that the fragile economy is back on solid ground.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently warned the economy will be weak through the rest of this year. A growing number of analysts fear that the country will hit another economic pothole in the fourth quarter, as the bracing impact of the tax rebates disappears. And there are concerns exports could tail off as other countries' economies slow down.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.

The economy is the top concern for Americans. Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama favors a second government stimulus package, while Republican rival John McCain supports free trade and other business measures to energize the economy.

On Wall Street, the GDP report lifted stocks. The Dow Jones industrials were up about 150 points in morning trading.

"Many people thought the sky was falling this spring ... but the economy actually expanded quite solidly," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics Advisors in Holland, Pa.

Still, housing, credit and financial troubles have pounded the economy.

In turn, employers have clamped down on hiring, driving the nation's unemployment rate up to 5.7 percent in July, a four-year high. The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of people signing up for jobless benefits declined last week for the third straight period, but claims remained above 400,000, an indicator of a slowing economy.
Employers have cut jobs every month this year and wage growth is trailing inflation. That combination raises concerns about the future of consumer spending, one of the pillars underpinning the economy.

The biggest factor in the second-quarter's rebound was robust sales of U.S. exports to other countries. The weaker value of the U.S. dollar has bolstered those sales. Exports grew at a 13.2 percent pace in the spring. That was much stronger than the government's initial estimate of a 9.2 percent growth rate, and more than double the 5.1 percent growth rate logged in the first quarter.

Imports, meanwhile, fell at a 7.6 percent annualized pace in the spring, as economic troubles in the U.S. crimped demand for foreign-made goods.

The improved trade picture added 3.1 percentage points to second-quarter GDP, the most since 1980.

U.S. consumers boosted their spending at a 1.7 percent pace in the second quarter. That was slightly better than the 1.5 percent growth rate initially report and marked the best showing in nearly a year. Government stimulus checks of up to $600 a person helped energize shoppers who had hunkered down amid the economy's problems.

One of the country's biggest problems -- the housing collapse -- was evident in the GDP report.

Builders cut back at an annual rate of 15.7 percent in the second quarter-- although that was a better showing than early this year and late last year.

Businesses trimmed spending on equipment and software in the spring. And, they reduced investment in inventories, but not as much as initially estimated by the government. That was another factor contributing to the improved GDP reading.

One measure of corporate profits showed companies losing ground in the second quarter. After-tax profits fell 3.8 percent in the spring, compared with a 1.1 percent increase in the first quarter.
An inflation gauge tied to the GDP report showed all prices rising at a rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the same as initially estimated.

Taking out energy and food, prices rose 2.1 percent. That also was unchanged from the government's previous estimate but remained outside the Federal Reserve's comfort zone.

With the economy still coping with fallout from housing and credit problems, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting on Sept. 16, and probably through the rest of this year.


"As many have said it was nothing more than a mental recession."

How many of the highlighted statements above sound "mental" to you? :confused:

When I remove the spin out of this article (not PJ's spin, that would require an exorcism) what I'm left with is "Things are pretty fucked up but they could be worse".
Try telling that to people in bankruptcy, foreclosure, unemployment lines, food bank lines, etc. They'll call you "mental" with good reason.



 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Originally posted by: OrByte
Originally posted by: Arkaign
All I can tell you is that things are pretty crappy here in D/FW. Lots of stores/restaurants closing, cars piling up on dealer lots, homes going unsold, etc. Anecdotal, I know, but it's worse than I've seen since the early-90s recession.

anecdotal for sure but I think you will find this scene playing out in many urban areas.

You just described Sacramento to a "T"

Absolutely. My county and the surrounding counties are almost nothing but urban.

Well that's sort of been the problem with our economy since 2001. There has been plenty of growth but it has been horribly unevenly distributed (even compared to how things normally are) Average real wages for a worker in the US are lower now than they were in 2000, despite an almost 10% increase in productivity.

Perhaps, but it most certainly has gotten a lot worse since 2001. Back then I didn't not feel the economy was really taking a shit on me and almost everyone around me. I knew it could be better, but it wasn't anywhere near or beyond my standards like it is today. It just goes to show that all of the numbers and evidence that are used to define the quality of our economy are very different from how much our economy actually has an impact on the life of the average American. The state of our lives is much more important than those numbers imo and that is what we should be basing our decisions on.
 

cubeless

Diamond Member
Sep 17, 2001
4,295
1
81
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Originally posted by: OrByte
Originally posted by: Arkaign
All I can tell you is that things are pretty crappy here in D/FW. Lots of stores/restaurants closing, cars piling up on dealer lots, homes going unsold, etc. Anecdotal, I know, but it's worse than I've seen since the early-90s recession.

anecdotal for sure but I think you will find this scene playing out in many urban areas.

You just described Sacramento to a "T"

Absolutely. My county and the surrounding counties are almost nothing but urban.

Well that's sort of been the problem with our economy since 2001. There has been plenty of growth but it has been horribly unevenly distributed (even compared to how things normally are) Average real wages for a worker in the US are lower now than they were in 2000, despite an almost 10% increase in productivity.

and that productivity has driven real prices down (like walmart did by getting stuff from china) and everybody decided that they 'deserve' and 'have a right to' new cars (trucks in tx); cell phones for everybody with $100 a month service; big tv's with full cable packages; etc... that they couldn't really afford (unless they could budget like the government)...

put the spin a little differently: the republicans made it so good that the populace threw away any restraint and went off the deep end spending what they didn't have because things were soooo good and they expected to never pay the bill...

and the weak dollar is pumping exports and cutting what we have to pay back to our creditors overseas...

i am still betting that a little distance will change the story of these days...