The dollar is about to be crushed

[halik]

Originally posted by: Perry404

Originally posted by: JS80
What the last 6 months have taught us is that the US is the LEADER in the global economy and as the US falls, as does the rest of the globe. Why else would the USD have STRENGTHENED since the whole crisis happened?

I think that is true to an extent however we will fall much further than most because of our monumental debt.
Clearly other markets are following our lead.
I'm sure China will have no problem filling the holes where we fall short though.

Long term the USD is bound to weaken, PPP compared to other currencies has been out of equilibrium.

That being said, there won't be any real devaluation if Obama can be fiscally responsible and not go nuts with deficits; USD strengthened because we're faring the current crisis better than other countries and once consumer lending starts working and economy picks up again we can worry about fiscal policy. Right now our national debt to GDP is right between the rest of G8 nations, so I won't lose sleep over it.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: Perry404
Man I couldn't recommend anyone invest in America right now.
I am still invested in some stocks but mostly Chinese and Baltic index issues which are down 94%.
Aside from that I've either been short or playing ETF's.
I would venture to say that my portfolio is up a heck of a lot more than Warren Buffets this year.
Anyone looked at BRK.A recently?
By the way LK if you're so damn good why don't you put one of your investments up against one of mine for next week?
We'll call it after five days.

ROFL
5 day non-risk adjusted returns? You must manage money professionally...

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Perry404
Man I couldn't recommend anyone invest in America right now.
I am still invested in some stocks but mostly Chinese and Baltic index issues which are down 94%.
Aside from that I've either been short or playing ETF's.
I would venture to say that my portfolio is up a heck of a lot more than Warren Buffets this year.
Anyone looked at BRK.A recently?
By the way LK if you're so damn good why don't you put one of your investments up against one of mine for next week?
We'll call it after five days.

You don't understand BRK if you think a 1 year return matters jack shit. That alone speaks volumes of you.

As far as your challenge in 5 days, you *STILL* don't get it. Any person can roll the dice for 5 days and win. It takes skill to win over 5 decades.

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: Perry404
Man I couldn't recommend anyone invest in America right now.
I am still invested in some stocks but mostly Chinese and Baltic index issues which are down 94%.
Aside from that I've either been short or playing ETF's.
I would venture to say that my portfolio is up a heck of a lot more than Warren Buffets this year.
Anyone looked at BRK.A recently?
By the way LK if you're so damn good why don't you put one of your investments up against one of mine for next week?
We'll call it after five days.

ROFL
5 day non-risk adjusted returns? You must manage money professionally...

5 days, 5 months, a year...I don't care.
Yes I daytrade. As most know I believe in commodities which are a longer hold. and I'm shorting the dollar possibly for the next two years.
I'm going to put my money where I see profit potential.

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Perry404
Man I couldn't recommend anyone invest in America right now.
I am still invested in some stocks but mostly Chinese and Baltic index issues which are down 94%.
Aside from that I've either been short or playing ETF's.
I would venture to say that my portfolio is up a heck of a lot more than Warren Buffets this year.
Anyone looked at BRK.A recently?
By the way LK if you're so damn good why don't you put one of your investments up against one of mine for next week?
We'll call it after five days.

You don't understand BRK if you think a 1 year return matters jack shit. That alone speaks volumes of you.

As far as your challenge in 5 days, you *STILL* don't get it. Any person can roll the dice for 5 days and win. It takes skill to win over 5 decades.

Are you serious? You do know that investing is for profit right?
I mean you don't merely put your money in an issue just to keep it there.
You invest to seek return on capital.
You don't want to do five days? How about going back to the OP of this thread. I'm telling you now that in one year the dollar will be down 20%+(minimum).
If I'm correct are you going to say that doesn't count for shit either?
Are you going to stand here and disagree with me?
If not than shut-up otherwise tell me I'm wrong(again) and make a fool of yourself(again).

p.s. I never said I was Warren Buffet. Just that you obviously aren't.
Now quit pretending you know what you're talking about.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Perry404

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Perry404
Man I couldn't recommend anyone invest in America right now.
I am still invested in some stocks but mostly Chinese and Baltic index issues which are down 94%.
Aside from that I've either been short or playing ETF's.
I would venture to say that my portfolio is up a heck of a lot more than Warren Buffets this year.
Anyone looked at BRK.A recently?
By the way LK if you're so damn good why don't you put one of your investments up against one of mine for next week?
We'll call it after five days.

You don't understand BRK if you think a 1 year return matters jack shit. That alone speaks volumes of you.

As far as your challenge in 5 days, you *STILL* don't get it. Any person can roll the dice for 5 days and win. It takes skill to win over 5 decades.

Are you serious? You do know that investing is for profit right?
I mean you don't merely put your money in an issue just to keep it there.
You invest to seek return on capital.
You don't want to do five days? How about going back to the OP of this thread. I'm telling you now that in one year the dollar will be down 20%+(minimum).
If I'm correct are you going to say that doesn't count for shit either?
Are you going to stand here and disagree with me?
If not than shut-up otherwise tell me I'm wrong(again) and make a fool of yourself(again).

p.s. I never said I was Warren Buffet. Just that you obviously aren't.
Now quit pretending you know what you're talking about.

Well shit, I never knew that. Thank you so fucking much for letting me in on such profound and oracular knowledge that investing is for "profit". For a second I thought it was for my health.

Return on capital can be had whether you invest from your date of birth to your date of death. It doesn't have to be day trading. Additionally, you've heard of the Law of Large Numbers, right? Mean Reversion?

Many people can make money over the short-term. However, long-term performance is what matters.

So, the dollar went from just about 1.6 against the Euro, came back to about 1.25. That's a swing of 21%. To go back it'd require a swing of 28%. How about we lay down a bet that it won't be back to 1.6 within the next 365 days?

I never said was either. I just find it ironic you run around portending the doom of the dollar and the downturn of the US, yet some of the smartest, and wealthiest, money on the planet is still invested in almost exclusively US assets. What do you think you know that they don't?

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Perry404

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Perry404
Man I couldn't recommend anyone invest in America right now.
I am still invested in some stocks but mostly Chinese and Baltic index issues which are down 94%.
Aside from that I've either been short or playing ETF's.
I would venture to say that my portfolio is up a heck of a lot more than Warren Buffets this year.
Anyone looked at BRK.A recently?
By the way LK if you're so damn good why don't you put one of your investments up against one of mine for next week?
We'll call it after five days.

You don't understand BRK if you think a 1 year return matters jack shit. That alone speaks volumes of you.

As far as your challenge in 5 days, you *STILL* don't get it. Any person can roll the dice for 5 days and win. It takes skill to win over 5 decades.

Are you serious? You do know that investing is for profit right?
I mean you don't merely put your money in an issue just to keep it there.
You invest to seek return on capital.
You don't want to do five days? How about going back to the OP of this thread. I'm telling you now that in one year the dollar will be down 20%+(minimum).
If I'm correct are you going to say that doesn't count for shit either?
Are you going to stand here and disagree with me?
If not than shut-up otherwise tell me I'm wrong(again) and make a fool of yourself(again).

p.s. I never said I was Warren Buffet. Just that you obviously aren't.
Now quit pretending you know what you're talking about.

Well shit, I never knew that. Thank you so fucking much for letting me in on such profound and oracular knowledge that investing is for "profit". For a second I thought it was for my health.

Return on capital can be had whether you invest from your date of birth to your date of death. It doesn't have to be day trading. Additionally, you've heard of the Law of Large Numbers, right? Mean Reversion?

Many people can make money over the short-term. However, long-term performance is what matters.

So, the dollar went from just about 1.6 against the Euro, came back to about 1.25. That's a swing of 21%. To go back it'd require a swing of 28%. How about we lay down a bet that it won't be back to 1.6 within the next 365 days?

I never said was either. I just find it ironic you run around portending the doom of the dollar and the downturn of the US, yet some of the smartest, and wealthiest, money on the planet is still invested in almost exclusively US assets. What do you think you know that they don't?

What do I know? You make it sound as if the wealthy are 100% transparent and have the individual at heart.
How about what does Jim Rogers know? What does Peter Schiff know?
Why choose Warren Buffet?
I'll take your bet but it needs some modifying. I won't go against the Euro because the Euro will be dragged down as well and that is a poor comparison. What I'm looking at in $$ value is the dollar vs the price of commodities. Real things that real people must walk out their front door and purchase because this is where inflation counts.

I speak Doom & Gloom because I see the shirts being stolen off the backs of my nation. Think I want to be some hero?
I made a slam dunk this summer(and you know it) and you know damn well I could have made a huge circus out of it but I kept my mouth shut because the market made my point. I don't need to tell you the dollar is going to lose 50% because my opinion is in my words.
When I post something as ridiculous as this thread it's because I'm damned serious.
You want to place a wager on the dollar for the next year I'll take it but make sure you know what you're doing first.
Also you're going to have to make me a better offer than the previous one. A currency vs currency bet doesn't work.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Perry404

I made a slam dunk this summer(and you know it) and you know damn well I could have made a huge circus out of it but I kept my mouth shut because the market made my point.

Except you didn't actually make any specific predictions, and couldn't post your accurate ones here if your life depended on it.

A currency vs currency bet doesn't work.

Sure does, as usual you and your ilk (Schiff, who gets almost everything wrong) can't actually be specific and still be right.

 

[StageLeft]

So are you guys betting? If on 11/28/2009 it requires at least 1.60 USD to buy a single Euro, Perry04 wins. If it takes less than 1.60 USD to buy a Euro, LegendKiller wins.

I think good bragging rights could be a simple note in the loser's sig for 60 days saying "<winner> understands the USD/Euro relationship better than me"

That said, I really do not see the euro gaining that much over the dollar, not within a year. I read some of the stuff about what, for example, England is looking at regarding its deficit right now and it appears to make the US' problems look like a light breeze compared to an F5. I'd probably want to be in Canada or the US for the next couple of years to weather this recession.

 

[Ozoned]

Perry404 is Lindsay Williams?????

 

[First]

Funny you bumped this, since the dollar is at it's highest level since 06 and has the potential to reach a 5 year high before the year is up.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Evan
Funny you bumped this, since the dollar is at it's highest level since 06 and has the potential to reach a 5 year high before the year is up.

Wait wait wait...that's just a sucker's rally. Gold is skyrocketing, Freeport McMoran is shooting upwards. Commodities are rallying in the face of uber-mega-super-duper-hyper-ludicrous-speed-inflation!

Ohhh...shit...wait...

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Evan
Funny you bumped this, since the dollar is at it's highest level since 06 and has the potential to reach a 5 year high before the year is up.

Wait wait wait...that's just a sucker's rally. Gold is skyrocketing, Freeport McMoran is shooting upwards. Commodities are rallying in the face of uber-mega-super-duper-hyper-ludicrous-speed-inflation!

Ohhh...shit...wait...

The long term view is Deflation, followed by an elevated Inflationary period. You heard it right here on P&N. You can bump this up in a few years.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
So are you guys betting? If on 11/28/2009 it requires at least 1.60 USD to buy a single Euro, Perry04 wins. If it takes less than 1.60 USD to buy a Euro, LegendKiller wins.

I think good bragging rights could be a simple note in the loser's sig for 60 days saying "<winner> understands the USD/Euro relationship better than me"

That said, I really do not see the euro gaining that much over the dollar, not within a year. I read some of the stuff about what, for example, England is looking at regarding its deficit right now and it appears to make the US' problems look like a light breeze compared to an F5. I'd probably want to be in Canada or the US for the next couple of years to weather this recession.

I don't have a dawg in this hunt but ...

The are some (not your typical wack jobs) that claim the current Treasury Department has manipulated the short-term value of the dollar much higher through swap lines with foreign central banks - and that in Q1 2009 the value of the dollar against the Euro has no choice but to drop.

Time will tell

The point is that the typical players (Treasury, Fed, SEC ...) are not addressing the systemic problems of credit, leverage and securitization. The initial 'TARP ' did nothing in dealing with toxic assets like they said ... it ended up being a cash infusion. And in the past week or so IIRC Paulson has noted the need for a new and improved TARP because the first TARP didn't TARP (lol ... got that?)

 

[IceBergSLiM]

lulling you into a false sense of security before the final collapse

 

[First]

^ rofl. Gotta love the conspiracy theory nuts.

 

[JSt0rm]

well I know nothing and generally defer to those more intelligent then myself when it comes to financial matters. But they do say that life is stranger then fiction and everything up to and including this point has a certain "surreal" factor to it. I am not going to change my behavior because of this idea but I wouldn't completly write it off. I personally don't think the 700 billion bailout ended up really helping. Now maybe in the long term sure (see my first sentence) but it doesn't seem to have any effect on confidence right now. I thought it could of hurt considering all of the inflammatory rhetoric coming out of Gdub's mouth when he was trying to sell it to the American people.

I have a couple of friends who work on wall street. They are in it for the long haul of course. If my industry was blowing up underneath me I would hold on too. For that reason i think some of you might have cloudy vision because your looking out from within the fog. And others might have the tinfoil wrapped a bit too tight

 

[zephyrprime]

Historically, the deflationary effects of bank implosions is stronger than the inflationary effects of government money creation. We'll be lucky to see inflation next year. More likely we'll have deflation like we had during the great depression.

 

[Ozoned]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Historically, the deflationary effects of bank implosions is stronger than the inflationary effects of government money creation. We'll be lucky to see inflation next year. More likely we'll have deflation like we had during the great depression.

Wouldn't that attract, to our economy, those that have stockpiles of dollars to spend?