The changing face of the Blue-Red divide.

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: QED
On the flip side, Minnesota, the proud home of Paul Wellstone and the only state to vote for Walter Mondale, is getting closer to becoming a toss-up state. The margin of victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania has decreased each of the last four Presidential elections.

i don't really see this

Originally posted by: uclaLabrat

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

Interesting. I have always thought that Indiana should be more Demcoratic, yet year after year they were solidly Republican.

btw notice how in the polls many of the states McCain is leading in, he is leading very big. And in many of the states Obama is leading in he has on the whole much smaller leads? It is actually possible that Obama could win the electoral college and not the popular vote.

Not a chance. Look at the national numbers. The states he's up big in have miniscule populations. I had more people in my high school class than most towns in ND. ID? KS? WY? Mostly rural areas, one or two "big cities". One county in CA would wipeout the statewide vote in a state like that.

my highschool would have been the 11th biggest town in north dakota, had we not been in the center of fargo iirc I'm very proud that its in play though.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: QED
On the flip side, Minnesota, the proud home of Paul Wellstone and the only state to vote for Walter Mondale, is getting closer to becoming a toss-up state. The margin of victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania has decreased each of the last four Presidential elections.

i don't really see this

It's very unlikely for Minnesota to go to McCain this election, but in 2004 the margin of victory was only 3%. For comparison, Bush won Florida by 5% in that same election. It's still pretty safely Democrat, but like Pennsylvania, it's steadily decreasing. The fact that Pennsylvania has 21 EVs to Minnesota's 10 is probably the main reason it's considered a battleground while Minnesota is not.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: techs
Anyone else see any long term changes out there?

I can't predict the short term, but I think i n the long term, the conservative power in this country will fall more and more out of power. Simply, old people will die and better educated(better rational thinkers) young people will be the voters.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: AstroManLuca

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: QED
On the flip side, Minnesota, the proud home of Paul Wellstone and the only state to vote for Walter Mondale, is getting closer to becoming a toss-up state. The margin of victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania has decreased each of the last four Presidential elections.

i don't really see this

It's very unlikely for Minnesota to go to McCain this election, but in 2004 the margin of victory was only 3%. For comparison, Bush won Florida by 5% in that same election. It's still pretty safely Democrat, but like Pennsylvania, it's steadily decreasing. The fact that Pennsylvania has 21 EVs to Minnesota's 10 is probably the main reason it's considered a battleground while Minnesota is not.

it was also an election with an incumbent, so its not an apples to apples comparison

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: AstroManLuca

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: QED
On the flip side, Minnesota, the proud home of Paul Wellstone and the only state to vote for Walter Mondale, is getting closer to becoming a toss-up state. The margin of victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania has decreased each of the last four Presidential elections.

i don't really see this

It's very unlikely for Minnesota to go to McCain this election, but in 2004 the margin of victory was only 3%. For comparison, Bush won Florida by 5% in that same election. It's still pretty safely Democrat, but like Pennsylvania, it's steadily decreasing. The fact that Pennsylvania has 21 EVs to Minnesota's 10 is probably the main reason it's considered a battleground while Minnesota is not.

it was also an election with an incumbent, so its not an apples to apples comparison

The margin in 2000 was only 2% in Minnesota. No incumbent.

1996, with an incumbent Democrat? 16%. 1992, incumbent Republican? 12%.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Originally posted by: Marlin1975
Yep I grew up in NC and now live in N.VA and VA will be blue long before NC will.

You underestimate the Libby Dole effect.