The CATO Institute says your 8 times more likely to be killed by a cop than terrorist

[Oldgamer]

You’re Eight Times More Likely to be Killed by a Police Officer than a Terrorist

It got a lot of attention this morning when I tweeted, “You’re Eight Times More Likely to be Killed by a Police Officer than a Terrorist.” It’s been quickly retweeted dozens of times, indicating that the idea is interesting to many people. So let’s discuss it in more than 140 characters.

In case it needs saying: Police officers are unlike terrorists in almost all respects. Crucially, the goal of the former, in their vastest majority, is to have a stable, peaceful, safe, law-abiding society, which is a goal we all share. The goal of the latter is … well, it’s complicated. I’ve cited my favorite expert on that, Audrey Kurth Cronin, here and here and here. Needless to say, the goal of terrorists is not that peaceful, safe, stable society.

I picked up the statistic from a blog post called: “Fear of Terror Makes People Stupid,” which in turn cites the National Safety Council for this and lots of other numbers reflecting likelihoods of dying from various causes. So dispute the number(s) with them, if you care to.

I take it as a given that your mileage may vary. If you dwell in the suburbs or a rural area, and especially if you’re wealthy, white, and well-spoken, your likelihood of death from these two sources probably converges somewhat (at very close to zero).

The point of the quote is to focus people on sources of mortality society-wide, because this focus can guide public policy efforts at reducing death. (Thus, the number is not a product of the base rate fallacy.) In my opinion, too many people are still transfixed by terrorism despite the collapse of Al Qaeda over the last decade and the quite manageable—indeed, the quite well-managed—danger that terrorism presents our society today.

If you want to indulge your fears and prioritize terrorism, you’ll have plenty of help, and neither this blog post nor any other appeal to reason or statistics is likely to convince you. Among the John Mueller articles I would recommend, though, is “Witches, Communists, and Terrorists: Evaluating the Risks and Tallying the Costs” (with Mark Stewart).

If one wants to be clinical about what things reduce death to Americans, one should ask why police officers are such a significant source of danger. I have some ideas.

Cato’s work on the War on Drugs shows how it produces danger to the public and law enforcement both, not to mention loss of privacy and civil liberties, disrespect for law enforcement, disregard of the rule of law, and so on. Is the sum total of mortality and morbidity reduced or increased by the War on Drugs? I don’t know to say. But the War on Drugs certainly increases the danger to innocent people (including law enforcement personnel), where drug legalization would allow harm to naturally concentrate on the people who choose unwisely to use drugs.

The militarization of law enforcement probably contributes to the danger. Cato’s Botched Paramilitary Police Raids map illustrates the problem of over-aggressive policing. Cato alum Radley Balko now documents these issues at the Huffington Post. Try out his “Cop or Soldier?” quiz.

There are some bad apples in the police officer barrel. Given the power that law enforcement personnel have—up to and including the power to kill—I’m not satisfied that standards of professionalism are up to snuff. You can follow the Cato Institute’s National Police Misconduct Reporting Project on Twitter at @NPMRP.

If the provocative statistic cited above got your attention, that’s good. If it adds a little more to your efforts at producing a safe, stable, peaceful, and free society, all the better.

Link to article

 

[Lithium381]

This is why cops should have guns and citizens shouldn't?

 

[Matt1970]

There are also almost 700,000 cops in the US vs. how many terrorists in the US? That's a pretty shitty comparison to make.

 

[Anarchist420]

There are also almost 700,000 cops in the US vs. how many terrorists in the US? That's a pretty shitty comparison to make.

Not when considering the fact that the cops are expected to stop the terrorists.

 

[mchammer187]

Pretty meaningless. Anyone who is familiar with probability would easily see this simply because you are several orders of magnitude likely to encounter a police officer than a terrorist.

 

[BoberFett]

Related to the thread about financial education, Americans are pretty bad at things that require logic. Risk assessment is one of those things.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

I wonder what the comparison on the likelihood of being killed by a drunk driver versus being killed by a law enforcement officer.

 

[BoberFett]

There are also almost 700,000 cops in the US vs. how many terrorists in the US?

Ummm, yeah. That's the point. People are afraid of terrorists, even though there are probably only a handful of them in the US. Cops on the other hand are everywhere, they're angry dickheads, and they're packing heat. You're far more likely to be killed by a cop than a terrorist, and so our spending tens of billions of dollars and shredding the Constitution to focus on terrorists is a complete misallocation of resources. We could stop far more deaths by focusing police training and oversight, or just about anything else. Death by terrorist is an statistical anomaly, but for some reason drives our national policy above almost all else.

In other words, people are stupid.

 

[Moonbeam]

Related to the thread about financial education, Americans are pretty bad at things that require logic. Risk assessment is one of those things.

Yup.

On an average, 370 persons of all ages sustain injuries from bathtub/shower daily in the United States. The dangerous aspect of bathing is evident from the injury data reported by the Consumer Product Safety Commission: 117,230 bathtub/shower injuries in 1989; 136,616 in 1990; and 139,434 in 1991.Those between the ages of 25-64 accounted for 37 percent of all bathtub/shower injuries; the most vulnerable being those closer to the upper age limit. The elderly accounted for 17 percent of bathtub/shower injuries in 1989, 22 percent in 1990, and 20 percent in 1991.

That was over 20 years ago.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

And I'm sure everyone one of them was just some innocent bystander and not a vałid shooting due to whatever the specific circumstance was.

If you're curious to know for sure...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforcement_officers_in_the_United_States

 

[Matt1970]

Ummm, yeah. That's the point. People are afraid of terrorists, even though there are probably only a handful of them in the US. Cops on the other hand are everywhere, they're angry dickheads, and they're packing heat. You're far more likely to be killed by a cop than a terrorist, and so our spending tens of billions of dollars and shredding the Constitution to focus on terrorists is a complete misallocation of resources. We could stop far more deaths by focusing police training and oversight, or just about anything else. Death by terrorist is an statistical anomaly, but for some reason drives our national policy above almost all else.

In other words, people are stupid.

It's all in how you look at it. I am around cops all the time. They're everywhere. I am not around terrorists. In 2012 there were less than 600 deaths at the hands of law enforcement. The annual average number of justifiable homicides alone is estimated to be near 400. That means there are less than 200 give or take murders by police. That is still a horrible number but how many years do we need to add up to equal the 9/11 attacks? Also consider there are roughly 15-17 thousand murders a year. That means you are around 70 times more likely to be killed by the average Jo than by a cop.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforcement_officers_in_the_United_States_2012

 

[BoberFett]

It's all in how you look at it. I am around cops all the time. They're everywhere. I am not around terrorists. In 2012 there were less than 600 deaths at the hands of law enforcement. The annual average number of justifiable homicides alone is estimated to be near 400. That means there are less than 200 give or take murders by police. That is still a horrible number but how many years do we need to add up to equal the 9/11 attacks? Also consider there are roughly 15-17 thousand murders a year. That means you are around 70 times more likely to be killed by the average Jo than by a cop.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforcement_officers_in_the_United_States_2012

Correct. Or rather than worrying about terrorists, we could spend that money on disease research that kills millions.

But people aren't afraid of heart disease, they're afraid of being blown up, because they're stupid.

 

[Matt1970]

Correct. Or rather than worrying about terrorists, we could spend that money on disease research that kills millions.

But people aren't afraid of heart disease, they're afraid of being blown up, because they're stupid.

Well look at the magazine size arguement. It's all on the hopes that less people are killed IF there is the off chance the guy drops his magazine while reloading. So far that has only happened once.

 

[Moonbeam]

Correct. Or rather than worrying about terrorists, we could spend that money on disease research that kills millions.

But people aren't afraid of heart disease, they're afraid of being blown up, because they're stupid.

It's not stupidity even if it amounts to the same thing. It's genetic.

 

[marincounty]

You can never find a cop when you need one, or a terrorist.

 

[BoberFett]

You can never find a cop when you need one, or a terrorist.

Kind of like how you never see Clark Kent and Superman together? :hmm:

 

[Theb]

You are 6 times more likely to be killed by a coconut than a cow.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

Pretty meaningless. Anyone who is familiar with probability would easily see this simply because you are several orders of magnitude likely to encounter a police officer than a terrorist.

But that isn't the main point of the blog's author. The main point of the response to this statistic being tweeted around is that this statistic as it is related to the effects of the "War on Drugs" has on the average citizen and police officers which actually causes more instances of a likelihood of being killed by a cop, i.e. because this policy exacerbates this statistics via needless deaths in drug related encounters of citizens vs cops more than any terrorist.


I guess no one bothered to read the article or really cared to think about what the blogger was saying.

Edit: Isn't the OP required to provide some commentary on the article itself outside of the thread title? Or have mods abandoned enforcing that rule or are doing so selectively???

 

[Kadarin]

And if you live in LA, the odds of you getting shot by the LAPD are...

 

[beachchica]

Pretty meaningless. Anyone who is familiar with probability would easily see this simply because you are several orders of magnitude likely to encounter a police officer than a terrorist.

Pretty much.

Also... You're

 

[Oldgamer]

But that isn't the main point of the blog's author. The main point of the response to this statistic being tweeted around is that this statistic as it is related to the effects of the War on Drugs has on the average citizen and police officers actually cause more instances of a likelihood of being killed by a cop, i.e. cause this policy exacerbate this statistics via needless deaths in drug related encounters of citizens vs cops more than any terrorist.


I guess no one bothered to read the article or really cared to think about what the blogger was saying.

Edit: Isn't the OP required to provide some commentary on the article itself outside of the thread title? Or have mods abandoned enforcing that rule or are doing so selectively???

Sorry that it bothers you that I didn't post any additional comments on this link. I don't always get the time to type away, and when I find a link I think is interesting and share it, I may come back when I have time later to add my thoughts or comments.

In my opinion the "terrorist" scare and media frenzy is stupid. We have given up so much of our liberties and freedoms already since 9/11. I do think there is truth in what the author is saying and trying to point out.

 

[momeNt]

Quick math to determine lethality. Terrorists is a red herring because really it is just regular people vs police officers or other agents of the state.


USA Population: 313,914,040
Police Population: 794,300

USA population less Police: 313,119,740

USA Homicides by firearm (total firearm minus suicides): 3.9 Per 100,000 population
Police Killings: 563 per 794,300 or 70.9 per 100,000 police officers!


sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforcement_officers_in_the_United_States_2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_police_officers
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=USA+population

 

[woolfe9998]

There are also almost 700,000 cops in the US vs. how many terrorists in the US? That's a pretty shitty comparison to make.

It's shitty for many other reasons as well. How much more likely would it be to die from terrorism or, in fact, common crimes, if we had no cops?

I intensely dislike soundbites like this which prey on weak-minded people.

 

[momeNt]

It's shitty for many other reasons as well. How much more likely would it be to die from terrorism or, in fact, common crimes, if we had no cops?

I intensely dislike soundbites like this which prey on weak-minded people.

Cops stop crimes? Pretty sure all they do is make drug arrests, and occasionally catch a killer. Generally speaking most homicides go unsolved.

 

[woolfe9998]

Ummm, yeah. That's the point. People are afraid of terrorists, even though there are probably only a handful of them in the US. Cops on the other hand are everywhere, they're angry dickheads, and they're packing heat. You're far more likely to be killed by a cop than a terrorist, and so our spending tens of billions of dollars and shredding the Constitution to focus on terrorists is a complete misallocation of resources. We could stop far more deaths by focusing police training and oversight, or just about anything else. Death by terrorist is an statistical anomaly, but for some reason drives our national policy above almost all else.

In other words, people are stupid.

No, your arguments aren't logical. First of all, you cite no statistics on the percentage of cops who are "bad" and kill innocent people either intentionally or accidentally. You just make a shallow emotional remark generalizing cops being "dickheads" in your enlightened opinion. Second, you offer no insight into the risk to life and property of having no law enforcement. Third, cops are primarily concerned with fighting common crime, so the relevant comparison is how many die from cops versus common criminals. How many people die to actions of counter-terrorism personnel? Hmm, maybe none. That was a slight of hand embedded in the so-called statistic which you have apparently been willingly duped by because it somehow supports your preconceptions.