The brits are in for a rough ride

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,613
46,276
136
Can't see us actually joining the EU again as membership of the Euro is compulsory now afaik and that would be politically a non starter.
I could see some sort of free trade agreement though.
And yeah, we aren't getting our sweet previous EU deal back!

The EU might consider single market access for freedom of movement but they are going to be very cautious due to the whole *gestures broadly at British politics*.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
19,925
7,033
136
Can't see us actually joining the EU again as membership of the Euro is compulsory now afaik and that would be politically a non starter.
I could see some sort of free trade agreement though.
And yeah, we aren't getting our sweet previous EU deal back!
The problem with either the Norwegian or Swiss model, is that you get all the rules but no influence. And while that might be fine for those smaller countries, I doubt that the UK would be fine with it.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
20,974
16,212
136
Maybe with a potential Frexit around the corner, the dynamic between the UK and EU might shift a bit.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
15,142
10,039
136
Andrew's latest scandal.


By all accounts the guy is both dim and vain (not only a royal, but, apparently, the late Queen's "favourite", and hence spoiled even by Royal standards, so presumably the world's intelligence agencies all spotted him as an easy mark.

Seems a reason why an hereditary head-of-state is a bad idea - it potentially creates a security vulnerability at the heart of the state, and it's better to have an elected one, who would be a much tougher target for a self-interested foreign actors...oh, wait..never mind...
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
20,974
16,212
136
Everything is fine

Come on, give me a TLDR here, what's this talking head got to say and why should I believe that they're not peddling BS or at least highly biased crap?

I'm also skeptical because he's peddling a Daily Mail headline in another of his clips ("Labour crashing the economy already!"... dude, Labour has barely done anything at all yet!).
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
15,142
10,039
136
Yeah, really not into watching videos on such topics (videos about WW2 tanks, airline disasters and the history of London Transport are fine, though).

Give us a textual summary.

I do think in general headline inflation figures are usually misleading, because inflation is often very different for different income groups.
 
Jul 27, 2020
28,175
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Give us a textual summary.
Yes Sir!

Understanding the Current Inflation Trends in the UK: A Comprehensive Overview

Hello everyone, this is Sasha. Today, I want to discuss the concerning rise in inflation in the UK, which is escalating at an alarming rate. Recent reports indicate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has reached 2.6% in November. However, it’s crucial to understand that this figure is misleading as it does not account for essential costs such as housing and council tax. The more accurate measure, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), shows an increase from 3.2% to 3.5%.

Key Drivers of Inflation in the UK​

Several factors are contributing to this upward trend in inflation:
  1. Surging Housing Costs: The cost of housing has skyrocketed, with owner-occupier housing costs soaring to 7.8%. This increase significantly affects the overall inflation rate. The reason behind this surge is largely due to the structure of the UK mortgage market, which is characterized by fixed-term mortgages typically lasting between two to five years. Once these terms expire, homeowners often face steep increases in their mortgage rates, potentially jumping from a previous rate of 1.7% to as high as 7-8%. This can lead to an increase of 50-100% in monthly mortgage payments, contributing to the overall inflationary pressure.
    Additionally, many landlords are also feeling the heat. Recent government policies have made it increasingly costly and complicated to be a landlord, limiting tax offsets and making tenant eviction more difficult. Consequently, rental prices have also risen, currently showing an annual inflation rate of 7.6%.
  2. Impact of Inflation Metrics: It’s vital to note that housing costs, which are a significant expense for the average person, only make up about 22.8% of the total inflation calculation. For most individuals, especially those living in urban areas like London, housing costs can account for approximately 40% of their expenses. If this were accurately reflected in inflation calculations, the CPIH would be around 4.5%, a figure that would likely provoke widespread concern.
  3. Transport Costs: Interestingly, the inflation data suggests that transport has played a considerable role in the recent inflation spike. However, the numbers tell a different story. The transport sector actually recorded a decline of -1.1% in November, following a -2% drop in October. This contradiction highlights a potential misrepresentation in the data, as elements causing deflation are mistakenly categorized as inflationary drivers.
  4. Wage Growth and Economic Conditions: Another significant factor influencing inflation is the rapid rise in wages, currently growing at an annual rate of 5.2%. While wage increases are generally positive, the current context is troubling. Unlike in a thriving economy where wage growth is a natural outcome of business success, in the UK, it appears to be driven by legislative changes rather than economic growth. The minimum wage has increased by about 60% over the last six years in a stagnant economy, putting pressure on businesses that may not be able to sustain these higher salaries without raising prices.
  5. Broader Economic Indicators: The recent inflation report reveals numerous warning signs across various sectors. For instance, inflation in alcohol and tobacco is at an alarming 6.8%, while food inflation, although currently at a more manageable 2%, has shown month-on-month acceleration. Health-related services are at 5.5%, and education costs are up to 5%. These increases are not isolated incidents; rather, they indicate a systemic issue across the economy.

Conclusion​

The current inflationary environment in the UK is multifaceted, driven primarily by housing costs and compounded by rising wages in a lackluster economy. The government’s failure to adequately address these issues and the obfuscation in reporting only serve to exacerbate public concern. As we move forward, addressing these fundamental economic challenges will be crucial to stabilizing inflation and improving living conditions for the average citizen.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
15,142
10,039
136
Probably a good point about housing costs. Housing-related inflation is very unevenly-distributed.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
26,162
15,586
136
Considering 100m donation to Nigel Farage's party. Ok then. I guess Marie Le Penn is next.

This is one fucked up timeline.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
20,974
16,212
136
Considering 100m donation to Nigel Farage's party. Ok then. I guess Marie Le Penn is next.

This is one fucked up timeline.

Much like with the ridicule of Trump as Musk's VP, we're going to have to come up with something for Farage. Nigel Browntongue perhaps.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
15,142
10,039
136
The right, always fighting for 'free speech''


[Just their own, though, everyone else needs to shut-up or else]

Liz Truss has sent a legal letter to Keir Starmer demanding he stops making “false and defamatory” claims that she crashed the economy.

The former prime minister sent a six-page “cease and desist” letter accusing Starmer of harming her reputation and contributing to her losing her South West Norfolk seat in the general election.

The row came as the UK’s long-term borrowing costs hit their highest level since the 2008 banking crisis, and the value of the pound reached its lowest point in a year.

Truss’s legal letter argued that the market meltdown that followed her disastrous mini-budget in October 2022 could not accurately be described as “a crash of the economy” because it did not involve a fall in GDP or rise in unemployment.

Citing a report by the economist and rightwing commentator Andrew Lilico for Europe Economics, the letter said the economic turmoil was the result of factors over which Truss had “no control”.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
33,081
11,262
136
The right, always fighting for 'free speech''


[Just their own, though, everyone else needs to shut-up or else]
I'd love to see Truss turn up to court and argue that she hadn't done harm to the economy especially when Starmer took the stand against her (given that hes an ex Queens council!).

Also "SHUT THE FUCK UP TRUSS! WE ARE TRYING TO FORGET ABOUT YOU!"
 

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
100,188
17,888
126
I'd love to see Truss turn up to court and argue that she hadn't done harm to the economy especially when Starmer took the stand against her (given that hes an ex Queens council!).

Also "SHUT THE FUCK UP TRUSS! WE ARE TRYING TO FORGET ABOUT YOU!"

Did Starmer take a lettuce with him?