Ozoned
Diamond Member
<a target=_blank class=ftalternatingbarlinklarge href="http://geocities.com/pwhce/textaq.html">Al-Qaeda's Revolutionary Model
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"We are now at a critical moment in the war between al-Qaeda and the West, and I think most people underestimate the risks we face. Allow me to paint a pessimistic, but feasible, nightmare scenario."
"Throughout 2004, conditions worsen in Iraq - several countries have withdrawn prematurely from the Coalition of the Willing (including Australia if Mark Latham wins in 2004), and the smouldering embers of ethnic tension in Iraq, stoked by propaganda, terrorist attacks and perhaps Coalition blunders, erupts into open conflict. In November, John Kerry is elected President of the United States. Although Kerry is on the record as saying he will keep troops in Iraq, the deteriorating situation convinces him that he should withdraw all support from Iraq - after all, he built his career on opposing all support for South Vietnam. All other Coalition partners follow America out of Iraq.
The fledgeling interim Iraqi government loses control of one part of the country after another. Large tracts of Iraq fall to tribal fiefdoms and Islamic statelets. Training camps attract radical Muslims from around the world, whose training includes attacks on what remains of the central government. Trained muhajiroun return to other Arab countries, to Europe, to the Asia Pacific and to Afghanistan. Attacks against Western targets become as common as terrorist attacks in Israel have been in recent years.
Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, King Fahd dies. The pro-reformist Crown Prince Abdullah ascends the throne, but Prince Nayef, Saudi Arabia's Interior Minister, continues with his soft touch on Islamic terror. Assassination attempts against Abdullah lead the kingdom into civil war between the elements of Saudi society that enjoy the patronage of rival Princes. Soon, the tribal areas of the Hijaz and the Najd blend with those of Iraq. The infection spreads to Yemen, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and further afield. As the revolution spreads, what can Western countries do? Not only would we not have the will to invade after having already withdrawn, but we would lack fuel because Arabian oil reserves would be locked up in failed states.
By the end of the decade, many poorer countries (such as parts of Asia and the former Eastern Bloc) would be unable to meet energy expenses and would be increasingly destabilised. By the end of the decade, living standards would be declining in the West as fuel shortages depressed the world economy. "
</a>
"We are now at a critical moment in the war between al-Qaeda and the West, and I think most people underestimate the risks we face. Allow me to paint a pessimistic, but feasible, nightmare scenario."
"Throughout 2004, conditions worsen in Iraq - several countries have withdrawn prematurely from the Coalition of the Willing (including Australia if Mark Latham wins in 2004), and the smouldering embers of ethnic tension in Iraq, stoked by propaganda, terrorist attacks and perhaps Coalition blunders, erupts into open conflict. In November, John Kerry is elected President of the United States. Although Kerry is on the record as saying he will keep troops in Iraq, the deteriorating situation convinces him that he should withdraw all support from Iraq - after all, he built his career on opposing all support for South Vietnam. All other Coalition partners follow America out of Iraq.
The fledgeling interim Iraqi government loses control of one part of the country after another. Large tracts of Iraq fall to tribal fiefdoms and Islamic statelets. Training camps attract radical Muslims from around the world, whose training includes attacks on what remains of the central government. Trained muhajiroun return to other Arab countries, to Europe, to the Asia Pacific and to Afghanistan. Attacks against Western targets become as common as terrorist attacks in Israel have been in recent years.
Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, King Fahd dies. The pro-reformist Crown Prince Abdullah ascends the throne, but Prince Nayef, Saudi Arabia's Interior Minister, continues with his soft touch on Islamic terror. Assassination attempts against Abdullah lead the kingdom into civil war between the elements of Saudi society that enjoy the patronage of rival Princes. Soon, the tribal areas of the Hijaz and the Najd blend with those of Iraq. The infection spreads to Yemen, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and further afield. As the revolution spreads, what can Western countries do? Not only would we not have the will to invade after having already withdrawn, but we would lack fuel because Arabian oil reserves would be locked up in failed states.
By the end of the decade, many poorer countries (such as parts of Asia and the former Eastern Bloc) would be unable to meet energy expenses and would be increasingly destabilised. By the end of the decade, living standards would be declining in the West as fuel shortages depressed the world economy. "
